 . 2017. 
  

. . 

. . 

. . 


  
       ,              .           .







 .  / 2017





 


            .. ,               1755              .                     .                 :               ,        ,      ,    ,   ,             [1 -     24 1755.       .        .  : http://hisdoc.ru/laws/16247/ ( : 31.10.2017.)].              ,         .

     ,    . ..       ,            (  ).           (..   .. ),        ,               (.. );     ,    (.. )                .        .. .      ( ,    - )  ..   .. .  -               -    .. .

                    ,    ,     .           .     .. . 100?  1917 .           ,                 .        1917 .       ,  ,  ,            1917 .         .. .        - ..    ..   .. .              ..      ..   ..    .?. .

 :      .. , ,                ,                              .             .. . ..   ..   -                  . ..              .

       .  ,    ,      ,      . ,      ,      ,     . ..            ;        ..   .. . ..   ..       ,         - ,      ,          .  ..    ,      .

           ..        .. ,        , ..   .. ,             ,   .. ,       -.



.., ..[2 -   ,   ,             .. . E?mail: juliaartamonova@yahoo.com; Artamonova Yulia Dmitrievna, Candidate of Sciences in Philosophy, associate professor, associate professor of History and Theory of Politics Chair, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: juliaartamonova@yahoo.com  ,   ,           .. . E?mail: arthur@leadnet.ru; Demchuk Artur Leonovich, Candidate of Sciences in Philosophy, associate professor, associate professor of Comparative Politics Chair, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: arthur@leadnet.ru]




  :  





      




.. [3 -   ,   ,         .. . E?mail: viy@polit.msu.ruVladimir I. Yakunin, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head, Chair of Public Policy, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: viy@polit.msu.ru]

.            .   ,  ,   ,       .         .     .                   .       .       ,    .         ,            .  , ,    ,          .    ,                   .       ,          ,   ,           .    ,    ,       .

 :  ; ;  ;   .


V.I. Yakunin


The role of infrustructure projects in the modern public policy

Abstract. This study seeks to understand the process of infrastructure projects implementation. The new political environment appeared for the last decades, determines the necessity for a profound academic analysis of infrastructure policy. Thus, for example, new initiatives provided by president D.Trump in the USA and ones suggested by Xi Jinping in China significantly change the infrastructure strategies.

The author stresses the high level of inequality in modern World and evaluates it as a sign predicting the formation of consolidated global development projects. Infrastructure inequality is a significant limitation for economy. The lack of new infrastructure projects limits economic potential of a country and preserves underdevelopment. At the same time, the infrastructure development demands large investments in a sector and calls for a new investment policy approach.

The author claims that in spite of the globalization influence, modern nation-states are the key actors of infrastructure development. However, it is a frequently appearing situation, when a government, being the main actor in this field, ignores people`s demand for infrastructure building.

The attempts of interest groups, representing only elite`s interests, are not popular among the society and its counteragents and, thus, discredit a political system or even the World political and economic order. In this sense, projects suggesting an alternative view on infrastructure development will be seen as much more attractive and realistic for the population.

Keywords: public policy; infrastructure; economic development; struggle against poverty.




           . .                50     137,5  . [  2017].       2013 .             ,       ,   [   2016, . 13],           .         [4 -   ,  ,   ,     4,4  (63%  )   26 [   2016, .29].],    [5 -    ,             Bioceanic Rail   [China and Brazil 2017].],         ,      .

      ,         ,         .             , ,           .         :    , ,  [6 -                (global value chains)       ,    [Didier, Pinat, 2017].],       - .        ,    -         ,         .           ,    ,        ,               ,        .

 , ,   ,      ,      [7 -       , ,           ,          ,     ,       : [   2016, .27].]  ,                           [   2016, . 2527].

             :  .               [ 2017],            ,                [   2017]. ,    -,      ,  .

,     -   .        ,                [Yakunin, 2014],            [ , 2016, c. 18].             2030 ͻ (  ) [Transforming our world].        2015 . - ,   ,                    [, , 2016, . 30].

  17   ,         :       ,   ,   ,      [8 -  McKinsey       [.: Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap, 2016, p.1].].        :  , ,  .

,     ,    ,        ,          [, , 2016, . 37],       .              .


 

     ,      .       ,      :  McKinsey ,         (. . 1) [Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap, 2016].

 ,      ,      (. .).  ,            :           ,   .      , ,   ,    ,   ,     ,   .  ,     ,    .






.

        



         ,      . ,      1,1  ,        [, 2013, . 497],    (58%)          [, , 2016, . 32].

                  ,   1986 .     .  ,       2010 .,                [, 2013, . 497].        : ?,    ,        ,      ,       . ?,   ,              ,     20%   [, 2013, . 506].

     .    ,    ,                 [Agenor, 2006, p. 5].      ,    -    [Railway Imperialism, 1991],                 .

              .          20%   ,  80%    [Agenor, 2006].

 ,                  :      ,       ,         ,    .

,      ,        ,   [9 -     ,                   .  .: [Yu, De Jong, StormS., Mi, 2012].].           ,    ,     .      ,  . ,     (     ,   )    ( ,   ,   ) [, 2009, . 3839].       ,             .               ,        .           ,     ,          :         ,       , -     ,       ,    [, 2009, . 51].

         (7   (95%   )     ,     (3,3  )    )     :   ,      ,       [, , 2016, . 32].                  ,     .

     .   ,     ,       ,  ,             .    ,         ,      ,          ,    :   ,     ,         .         :                   ,    ,        [, 2009, . 40].

            ,      . , ,              ,   . ,     , ,        ,          .       , ,  ,        ,    ,   ,    [Yakunin, 2017].           .

            ,       : , -, -.


  

    .  McKinsey   Bringing Global Infrastructure Gaps ,   2016  2030 .    3,3  . ( 3,8%   )         [Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap, 2016].        ,     11%   , .. 350  . .

   ,      .         :    ,       ,      ,     .    ,      ,          .            ,  .

       (  )              ,        .

 ,             .

       .     ,     ,   ,    -  .            ,       ,       ,      1020 ?        ,      - .      .

 ,         - ,     ,           [, 2010, . 4647]. ,            ,          .      ,          .

    .                .          , ,     ,             10  .,                  [, , 2016, . 3637].

            ,               .   ,   ,  : )          ,     , )     (stranded assets)    [, 2016, . 8].

   ,     ,    .        :    (2016 2025)       - ,   2,2  .,    (412  .),  (179  .),  (147  .),  (103  .),  (220  .) [, 2016, . 8].

   2016 . -       68      380  .        400         ,           [, 2016, . 8].

          ,         :           ,     [Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap, 2016, p. 10].       軠    ,     ,        .

, ,           , ,    [, , 2016, . 3637].

   2015 .     ,     ,            ,        ,    ,        [, 2016, . 9].

         ,      .    20082009 .,                        ( ,    )  .              12%,   13,   21,   38,     81% [, 2016, . 7].           :      ,           [  2017].

 ,        ,            ,    - ,    .      ,  ,  ,         ,     .       ,      .

      .               ,      ,    - [, 2016, . 101].          ,     :   , ,          [     2017].           ,       [    , 2017],             .     : ,    ,      ,  45      ,   2      70?    [, 2016, . 102].           ,      .         .    ,     -     .


-    

              (big push)[10 -      Rosenstein Rodan. .: [Agenor, 2006, p.2].]  .                  ,       [Amador-Jimenez, Willis, 2012, p.201],       ,     -    .

                   .        -  .

                   [Aschauer, 1989a; Aschauer, 1989b ].      7080? ՠ.            .    ,    ,      ,    ,       .   ,     [Munnell, 1990]    [Krugman, 1991],     , - [Sanchez-Robles, 1998], . [Donaldson, 2010]     .   ,     ,        .        [Eisner, 1991],  [Gramlich, 1994],    [Evans, Karras, 1994],  [Schwartz, 1995],    [R?ller, Waverman, 2001].         ,         .

,    -,        .               :       ,             [11 -  .: [Pickrell, 1992; Flyvbjerg, 1998, Eisenhardt, 1989].].       ,    ,          ,         .        ,      ,      .  ,  ,  ,                ,  ,    .     ,     ,       ,          .

  ,           ,             [Ansar, Flyvbjerg, Budzier, Lunn, 2016, p. 360390].           ,       31%  ;     ,                .       ,          .          ,    .    ,        ,      ,      .

                 .    .  (P. Sahoo)  ..  (R.K. Dash) [Sahoo, Dash, 2009, p. 359360]        ,   -.  ,       ,    ,        .

     . ?,       (          ,     ,  ,   ;          , ,   .).

?,    .         ,         ,     .     (           )     .  (T. Deng),             [Deng, 2013].  T.        .               .

  ,       ,          ,           .              .                    ϻ     .       ,     .   ,  ,          .


    

         :        (   )   .           :       [Khwaja, 2008], ,  .               /   ,           .

          :                 ,               [World Bank 2016].    ,                  :          ,          -   [Armijo, Rhodes, 2017, p. 240241].        [, , 2015],    ,   ,      .             [Armijo, Rhodes, 2017, p. 242],             . , ,             [12 -            :     . C.: [   2017;   2017].]    [, 2011, . 8].          ,      ,          .

                         [, 2016, . 101].         ,       ,  ,    .         ,   ,        ,        .

    , ,     .   ,             [13 -        2016   [Kane, 2016]   [Terrill, 2016].],           ,        ,    , ..        [, , , 2014, c. 11].        ,       ,              [Simon 1996].        ,    .     ,     :      ,            ,        . .

     .                             .         .

   ,                   ,   ,     ,        ,           [, 2016, . 106].       ,    ,      ,      .       ,    (,     ),   ,     .     ?


   

           .   ,          ,   ,           .    ,    ,       .

  ,    ,         ,  .  ,         ,    ,           ,        .   ,   ,          ,  ,   ,     [14 -   ,                            [  ., 2015, c. 934].].

   ,         ,     ,  ,       [15 -         XVI    2002.     2021.,    .].  ,  ,    ,   ,   .  ,     ,              .  ,   ,            , ,    ,    ,     [16 -              ,        [  ,  , 2015, c. 9099].].       ,         ,     - . ,             ,       ,                  [17 -                 ,   2014 .           .         10,5%.        30  ( 300  .  9  .      ).     4050 .  30      1  .  .     2015 .  4  .,       .    ,      ,                    [, 2016, . 261].].

   ,   ,    ,        ,         ,   ,    -   .              ,             .   ,              ,          . ,   ,      [18 - ,        [ , 2016].],            , ,          ,        .

 , ,     ,      ,      ,        .                  ,     - ,     ,   , ,    .         ,   .          .


* * *

       :            ,    ,             .          :    ,          .           ,        ,      .           : ,       ,        ,             .    ,  , ,  ,  ,      .

         ,      .        ,        ,    , ,    ,          .         : , , .          .    ,         ,     ,        ,       .


 

     50   $138//   RNS. ., 2017. 25 .  : https://rns.online/economy/administratsiya-Trampa-sostavila-spisok-iz-50-infrastrukturnih-proektov-stoimostyu-138-mlrd-2017-01-25/ ( : 11.02.2017.)

..          //   . ., 2011. 34. .58.

., . :  //     . ., 2016. .60, 5. .3039.

.., ..       //  .  . ., 2015. 51. .185212.  : https://cyberleninka.ru/article/v/politicheskie-seti-kak-novyy-istochnik-politicheskogo-riska ( : 11.02.2017.)

        //   Regnum. ., 2017. 15.  : https://regnum.ru/news/2288663.html ( : 30.08.2017.)

..      //   . ., 2010. 1. .2547.

        ,    / . ., 2017. 4.  : https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3373639 ( : 11.08.2017.)

..     //    . ., 2009. 1. .3853.

    :   ( )/ ..  [.];  . ... .:  , 2016. 130.

 .       /    . ., 2016. 21.  : http://ru.valdaiclub.com/files/13898/ ( : 11.02.2017.)

..        //   . ., 2013. .17, 3. .497523.

   [].  ?    ,  軠//   . , 2015. 3. .934.

..      //     . ., 2016. .60, 9. .516.

  //  .  , 2014. 31.  : http://www.novdelo.ru/post/view?id=43360 ( : 30.02.2017.)

 :     // . ., 2017. 12.  : http://www.rbc.ru/business/12/04/2017/58e77bd79a7947955171ac85 ( : 30.08.2017.)

        ໠// . ., 2017. 17.  : http://www.rbc.ru/economics/17/01/2017/587e04829a79476f6224e9dd ( : 11.02.2017.)

..    // .  . ., 2016. 2. .90108.

    :       //  . ., 2017. 2.  : https://ria.ru/world/ 20170602/1495682495.html ( : 11.08.2017.)

:          //  . , 2017. 20.  : https://ria.ru/world/20170120/1486168830.html ( : 11.02.2017.)

., ., .   :  . .:  , 2014. 288.

 ,  .       ,  // International Economic Review. , 2015. 2. .9099.

..    -        XX  XXI.:   //   . ., 2016. 5. .257263.

 .       ,  . , 2016. 8.  : http://www.aisixiang.com/data/99393.html ( : 30.08.2017.)

AgenorP-R. A Theory of Infrastructure-Led Development/ Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research. Manchester, 2006. 53p. Mode of access: http:// hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr83.pdf ( : 30.02.2017.)

Amador-JimenezL., Willis Chr.J. Demonstrating a correlation between infrastructure and national development// International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology. Abingdon, 2012. Vol.19, N3. P.197202.

AnsarA., FlyvbjergB., BudzierA., LunnD. Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China // Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Oxford, 2016. Vol.32, N3. P.360390.

ArmijoL.E., RhodesS.D. Explaining infrastructure underperformance in Brazil: Cash, political institutions, corruption, and policy Gestalts// Policy Studies. Abingdon, 2017. Vol.38, N3. P.23124.

AschauerD.A. Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital?// Journal of Monetary Economics. Amsterdam, 1989a. Vol.24, N2. P.171188.

AschauerD.A. Is Public Expenditure Productive?// Journal of Monetary Economics. Amsterdam, 1989b. Vol.23, N2. P.177200.

Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap/ McKinsey&Company. N.Y., 2016. 60p. Mode of access: http://www.un.org/pga/71/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2017/06/Bridging-Global-Infrastructure-Gaps-Full-report-June-2016.pdf ( : 30.08.2017.)

China and Brazil sign $27billion deals/ GBTIMES BEIJING. Beijing, 2015. 15May. Mode of access: http://gbtimes.com/china/china-and-brazil-sign-27-billion-deals ( : 11.02.2017.)

DengT. Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Productivity and Economic Growth: Recent Advances and Research Challenge// Transport Reviews. Abingdon, 2013. Vol.33, N6. P.686699.

DidierT., PinatM. The Nature of Trade and Growth Linkages. Policy Research Working Paper/ World Bank. Washington, DC, 2017. N1868. 49p. Mode of access: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/900341502818068705/pdf/WPS8168.pdf ( : 30.08.2017.)

DonaldsonD. Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure. Working Paper/ National Bureau of Economic Research. L., 2010. N16487. 68p. Mode of access: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/38368/1/ARCWP41-Donaldson.pdf ( : 30.02.2017.)

EisenhardtK.M. Agency Theory: An Assessment and Review// The Academy of Management Review. N.Y., 1989. Vol.14, N1. P.5774.

EisnerR. Infrastructure and Regional Economic Performance: Comment// New England Economic Review. Boston, 1991. September/ October. P.4758.

EvansP., KarrasG. Is Government Capital Productive? Evidence from a Panel of Seven Countries// Journal of Macroeconomics. Amsterdam, 1994. Vol.16, N2. P.271279.

FlyvbjergB. Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice. Chicago, Ill: University of Chicago Press, 1998. 304p.

GramlichE.M. Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay// Journal of Economic Literature. Nashville, 1994. Vol.32, N3. P.11761196.

KaneJ. Infrastructure ballot measures win big in 2016 election, but significant gaps remain/ Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, 2016. 9November. Mode of access: https:// www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/09/infrastructure-ballot-measures-win-big-in-2016-election-but-significant-gaps-remain/ ( : 30.08.2017.)

KhwajaA.I. Can good projects succeed in bad communities?/ World Bank. Washington, DC, 2008. 49 p. Mode of access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.17.3672&rep=rep1&type=pdf ( : 30.02.2017.)

KrugmanP. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography// Journal of Political Economy. Chicago, Ill., 1991. Vol.99, N3. P.483499.

MunnellA.H. How Does Public Infrastructure Affect Regional Economic Performance?// New England Economic Review. Boston, 1990. September/ October. P.1133.

PickrellD.H. A Desire Named Streetcar: Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit Planning// Journal of the American Planning Association. Chicago, Ill., 1992. Vol.58, N2. P.158176.

Railway Imperialism/ .B.Davis, K.E.Wilburn, R.E.Robinson (eds.). Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press. 225p.

R?llerL.-H. WavermanL. Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach// American Economic Review. Nashville, 2001. Vol.91, N4. P.909923.

SahooP., DashR.K. Infrastructure development and economic growth in India// Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. Abingdon, 2009. Vol.14, N4. P.351365.

Sanchez-RoblesB. Infrastructure Investment and Growth: Some Empirical Evidence// Contemporary Economic Policy. Fountain Valley, 1998. Vol.16, N1. P.98108.

SchwartzA.E. Infrastructure in a Structural Model of Economic Growth// Regional Science and Urban Economics. Amsterdam, 1995. Vol.25, N2. P.131151.

SimonH.A. The science of the artificial. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996. 248p.

TerrillM. Election 2016: Will the infrastructure promises meet Australias needs?/ The Conversation. Parkville, 2016. 26June. Mode of access: http://theconversation.com/election-2016-will-the-infrastructure-promises-meet-australias-needs-61140 ( : 30.08.2017.)

Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development / Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform. N.Y., 2015. Mode of access: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld ( : 30.08.2017.)

World Bank. 2016. Doing Business 2016: Measuring Regulatory Quality and Efficiency/ World Bank. Washington, DC: IBRD, 2016. 348p. Mode of access: http:// www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/WBG/DoingBusiness/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdf ( : 30.08.2017.)

YakuninV. Railway Infrastructure and the Well-Being of Citizens/ DOC Research Institute. Berlin, 2017. 10August. Mode of access: https://doc-research.org/en/ railway-infrastructure-well-citizens/ ( : 11.08.2017.)

YakuninV.I. Integrated Project of Solidary Development on the Eurasian Continent (Research and Practical Concept)// Herald of the Russian Academy of Science. ., 2014. Vol.84, N4. P.225241.

YuN., De Jong., StormS., MiJ. Transport Infrastructure, Spatial Clusters and Regional Economic Growth in China// Transport Reviews. Abingdon, 2013. Vol.32, N1. P.328.




  ,   :     




.. [19 -   ,   ,       . E?mail: vilisov@centero.ruMaksim V. Vilisov, Cand. Sci (Pol. Sci.), Chair of Public Policy, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. Email: vilisov@centero.ru]

.                         .               ,     .    2000?              2000?         .     ,        ,            .           .

 :     ; -2030; -2050;   -   ;  ;   .


M.V. Vilisov


Political strategies of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia: Problems of formation and practical implementation

Abstract. The discussion on the image of the future that unfolded on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia gave an occasion to consider Russia's long-term political strategies in comparison with the closest partners in the Eurasian Union. Despite the formal similarity of the documents themselves and the formal procedures for their implementation within the framework of state policy, the Russian case has significant differences. Despite the trend that began in the early 2000s to systematically formalize strategies as the basis of state policy and management, since the late 2000s, the formation of political strategies has clearly dominated the topic of security over the theme of development. The emerging trend has its own explanations, which are in the sphere of foreign and domestic policy, including those related to individual formal and informal institutions and processes. Development strategies designing will require the adaptation of successful formal and informal practices.

Keywords: National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation; Kazakhstan-2030; Kazakhstan-2050; concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation; Security Council; Eurasian Union.


      

                [20 -             ,  ,  ,     () ,             . .: [., ., 2017].],  ,    ,     [, , 2017].

           ,       1  1999 . 2021-[21 -  ,  ..     ,          2010.        . ʠ      . .: [    1 1999. 2021-].]:      (),         [22 -  2000 .          ,  2011   2020 [ 2020].      2010 .    [ XXI ].].         ,        ,   -  (       -     -       2020 [23 -     17  2008 . 1662- //      24  2008 . 47 . 5489.]    2008 .,    ,       ,  2020     ,    ).

     ,   :   ,   ,       [, 2016a].                      ,             .

   ,    ,    ,  ,        ,      ,    ,          ,      ?       ,          ,   ,     ,     ,  ,    .   .. ,       ,   ,  ,        ,   .    ,      ,      [ 2030].

  ,    ,   .     ,    .. [24 -         .   .     .   ,         ( . 1996. 13 ). (. :  ..       . 2017, .9).]   1990?       [, 2017, . 9].   ,    ,           ,      .   ,         ,             ,   ,   .         .

 ,           :           ?     ,      ?


:   

  2012 .      -2050      2050 . [ -2050].    -2030,   1997 . [-2030].                   .

, , -2030        ,      ,      [25 - ,        ()       (, , , , , ).].      : 1997  (  )          [Hale, 2009, c. 27],     ,    - ,           .

                 ,      ,     .   .  [, 2017, . 94; Cobb R., Elder C., p 906907]:   : ,          ,  ,     [-2030].        ,  ?         [Hale, 2009, p. 2323].  ,           (   .   . ) :          ,       -    [-2030].

              10 ,                     [26 -      18  2009 . 827        http://adilet.zan.kz/ rus/docs/U090000827_],          2050 .[27 -  -2050:     .        ..   , . , 14  2012  http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/ K1200002050#z35],       10 [28 -        2020.      1 2010 922 http://adilet.zan. kz/rus/docs/U100000922_#z8],   -  [29 -     -    2020.      21 2011. 118 http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000118#z9],    ,    .

 -2050 ,              . ,            2050 .  30     [ -2050],     :            50-    .         51? .       [30 -      2004 ., ,     (.: [, 2004]).    2012 .       51? .      : 20162017 .    53? . .: [The Global Copmetitiveness Report].].        ,      ,        ,      .       , -2050      100       [, 2016].

       -  - , ,      -     -2030 [Kudaibergenova, 2015] ,         .  -2030      ,        ,    [31 -   :   ,           , ,  ,       .],       ,      ,      ,       [32 -         : , ,   .]. ,        1990?     [, , 2009, . 93],  1997 .       ,           ,   .        ,        ,          .    ,      ,    , ,      ,            [Hale, 2009, P. 20].

  ,  ,  ,      [Hale, 2009, P. 21],    ,   ,        .          .  ,        ,    ,                 .  ,                   .

        :               ()       ,     ,         ,   [  , 2012].            ,       .                  , ,   ,                .


:  

        ,  .         5  1998 . 157-      -   ,         20  1998 . 1321             -    [  2014, . 5].

              -   15 [33 -       2030.,     2015. http://www.pravo.by/novosti/obshchestvenno-politicheskie-i-v-oblasti-prava/2015/february/5322/  : http://www.economy.gov.by/uploads/files/NSUR2030/Natsionalnaja-strategija-ustojchivogo-sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo-razvitija-Respubliki-Belarus-na-period-do-2030-goda.pdf] (  -2030[34 -      .]),  .       ,     [  2014, . 5]     ..                  19  2013 .[35 -       : http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-8567/] (  ).

 ,    ,       - .    : ,       ,        /      [Radzyk, 2001][36 -  ,         ,     ,    () , ,                      . .: [Radzyk, 2001].],       ,       - .  -2030     ,  -  ,       ,    , -2020[37 -       2020 . 22,3     2005 .  2015 .     1,5    2005 . (      1,98 ).         ( 2015 .    1,5    2005 .,  2020 .    1,61,7 )      ( 2   2,42,7  ).],    [38 - -2020     (    )      -97,     1997 .,       : http://abs.igc.by/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/-2020.pdf].

 -2030     [39 -  2.3.],   15 ,          ,   ,   -  ,       ,    ,     ,        .  ?         ,        ,       [40 -          , -   ,          ,    ,     ,     .].

          .     (         ,       )        (                  :  , , ).            : ,   .       (),        :  ,  ,            . ,   ,    ,      ? ,      ,         ,     .  ,   ?      -2030.      ,       [41 - ., :   21 2017. http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/ezhegodnoe-poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-16059;   21  2016 . http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/ ezhegodnoe-poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-16059;   29  2015 . http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/obraschenie-s-poslaniem-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-11301   22  2014. http://president.gov.by/ru/ news_ru/view/aleksandr-lukashenko-obraschaetsja-s-ezhegodnym-poslaniem-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-8549], , ,                .

               ,    :    ,     ,      (  ).          ,       ,    ?     .


:   

   ,         ,    [42 -    28  2014 . 172-       //      30  2014 . 26 ( I) . 3378.],     -   2014 .,       .          ,  ,   , :    ,  - ,   ,  - .   ,    - ,  .

          (  ):        ( 2009  2015 .)  ,         ,  : 2009 .     ,  2015         .  ,      2009 .            2014 . [, 2016b].  ,    ,    [43 -     12  2009 . 537        2020 .       19  2009 . 88,       18  2009 . 20 . 2444.],       , ..    , ,           .                :        1997 .[44 -      17  1997 . 1300        (   , 1997,  52, . 5909).] . ,        2000 .[45 -      10  2000 . 24       (   , 2000,  2, . 170).],  .        .

          - :          -    2020 [46 -     17  2008 . 1662-.          24  2008 . 47 . 5489.] (  ),      2008 .        ,             .  , ,   :      ,       600    ,   ,    ,      , ,  [47 -   .].             [48 -     17  2010 . 1050       20152020 .          31  2011 . 5 . 739.]     ,   [49 -     23  2015 . 497        20162020 .      -   (www.pravo.gov.ru) 28  2015 .,       1  2015 . 22 . 3232.].          .

     -   : -2020,         2011 .,     .  ,        ,     [50 -       .. .: [-2030].].             ,     ,         .

           ?                 ,  1990? ,                 :         ,        . ,        ,    (, , ,   .)     ,    ,   .

         ,         [51 -       (.:      (    28  2000 .));      (12  2008 . -1440);      (12  2013 .);     30  2016 . 640       .],  ,   [52 - , ,       1993 . (    2  1993 . 1833       ),  2000 . (    21  2000 . 706      ),  2010 . (    5  2010 . 146     )   2014 .     (.    -2976).].  ,      .

?,         ,           .         ,            .

?,      ,           .

?,            ,   ,      ,   ,           ,   .

  1990?       .       ..      1999 .[53 -    https://ria.ru/history_comments/20110321/356280998.html]      .        :         ( 2000 .),   (21  2000 .),    (28  2000 .).     .          .

   , ,    1998 .      -   ,            [54 -     1 1999. 2021-.          13 1999., 50, .6247.]   13  1999 .   . ,       . ,    ,            ,    .     ,    ,      [, 2003, Gelman, 2016],      .      ,      ,     ,       ,        .

 ,  ,         -     ,         . ,               ,     ,     .     ,          ,      ,       [Lukyanov, 2017].

  -   ,   ,         : . ,      1999 .,                       . ,      . ,       ,          .

  ,        ,       ,     ,    ,              [, 2008].          ,     ,    , ,  ,    .     ,       , ,     .  ,            -,      .

           :  2008 .    (  ,      :  (2003),  (20042005),  (2005),    (2006),      ).       2009,       ,          .

                .    ,          (  ,    , , ),           ,        ,      ,           [Kryshtanovskaya, White, 2009].   ,      ,      .  ,         .    ,          ,      [Kryshtanovskaya, White, 2009, p 296].         ,      ,    ,    [Vendil, 2011, P 8889].               ,               [Kryshtanovskaya, White, 2009, p 296].  ,       [, , 2015, . 35],         .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/kollektiv-avtorov/politicheskaya-nauka-2017-specvypusk/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes



1


    24 1755.       .        .  : http://hisdoc.ru/laws/16247/ ( : 31.10.2017.)




2


  ,   ,             .. . E?mail: juliaartamonova@yahoo.com; Artamonova Yulia Dmitrievna, Candidate of Sciences in Philosophy, associate professor, associate professor of History and Theory of Politics Chair, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: juliaartamonova@yahoo.com

  ,   ,           .. . E?mail: arthur@leadnet.ru; Demchuk Artur Leonovich, Candidate of Sciences in Philosophy, associate professor, associate professor of Comparative Politics Chair, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: arthur@leadnet.ru




3


  ,   ,         .. . E?mail: viy@polit.msu.ru

Vladimir I. Yakunin, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head, Chair of Public Policy, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E?mail: viy@polit.msu.ru




4


  ,  ,   ,     4,4  (63%  )   26 [   2016, .29].




5


   ,             Bioceanic Rail   [China and Brazil 2017].




6


               (global value chains)       ,    [Didier, Pinat, 2017].




7


      , ,           ,          ,     ,       : [   2016, .27].




8


 McKinsey       [.: Bringing Global Infrastructure Gap, 2016, p.1].




9


    ,                   .  .: [Yu, De Jong, StormS., Mi, 2012].




10


     Rosenstein Rodan. .: [Agenor, 2006, p.2].




11


 .: [Pickrell, 1992; Flyvbjerg, 1998, Eisenhardt, 1989].




12


           :     . C.: [   2017;   2017].




13


       2016   [Kane, 2016]   [Terrill, 2016].




14


  ,                            [  ., 2015, c. 934].




15


        XVI    2002.     2021.,    .




16


             ,        [  ,  , 2015, c. 9099].




17


                ,   2014 .           .         10,5%.        30  ( 300  .  9  .      ).     4050 .  30      1  .  .     2015 .  4  .,       .    ,      ,                    [, 2016, . 261].




18


,        [ , 2016].




19


  ,   ,       . E?mail: vilisov@centero.ru

Maksim V. Vilisov, Cand. Sci (Pol. Sci.), Chair of Public Policy, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University. Email: vilisov@centero.ru




20


            ,  ,  ,     () ,             . .: [., ., 2017].




21


 ,  ..     ,          2010.        . ʠ      . .: [    1 1999. 2021-].




22


 2000 .          ,  2011   2020 [ 2020].      2010 .    [ XXI ].




23


    17  2008 . 1662- //      24  2008 . 47 . 5489.




24


        .   .     .   ,         ( . 1996. 13 ). (. :  ..       . 2017, .9).




25


,        ()       (, , , , , ).




26


     18  2009 . 827        http://adilet.zan.kz/ rus/docs/U090000827_




27


 -2050:     .        ..   , . , 14  2012  http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/ K1200002050#z35




28


       2020.      1 2010 922 http://adilet.zan. kz/rus/docs/U100000922_#z8




29


    -    2020.      21 2011. 118 http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/U1100000118#z9




30


     2004 ., ,     (.: [, 2004]).    2012 .       51? .      : 20162017 .    53? . .: [The Global Copmetitiveness Report].




31


  :   ,           , ,  ,       .




32


        : , ,   .




33


      2030.,     2015. http://www.pravo.by/novosti/obshchestvenno-politicheskie-i-v-oblasti-prava/2015/february/5322/  : http://www.economy.gov.by/uploads/files/NSUR2030/Natsionalnaja-strategija-ustojchivogo-sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo-razvitija-Respubliki-Belarus-na-period-do-2030-goda.pdf




34


     .




35


      : http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-8567/




36


 ,         ,     ,    () , ,                      . .: [Radzyk, 2001].




37


      2020 . 22,3     2005 .  2015 .     1,5    2005 . (      1,98 ).         ( 2015 .    1,5    2005 .,  2020 .    1,61,7 )      ( 2   2,42,7  ).




38


-2020     (    )      -97,     1997 .,       : http://abs.igc.by/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/-2020.pdf




39


 2.3.




40


         , -   ,          ,    ,     ,     .




41


., :   21 2017. http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/ezhegodnoe-poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-16059;   21  2016 . http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/ ezhegodnoe-poslanie-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-16059;   29  2015 . http://president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/obraschenie-s-poslaniem-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-11301   22  2014. http://president.gov.by/ru/ news_ru/view/aleksandr-lukashenko-obraschaetsja-s-ezhegodnym-poslaniem-k-belorusskomu-narodu-i-natsionalnomu-sobraniju-8549




42


   28  2014 . 172-       //      30  2014 . 26 ( I) . 3378.




43


    12  2009 . 537        2020 .

       19  2009 . 88,       18  2009 . 20 . 2444.




44


     17  1997 . 1300        (   , 1997,  52, . 5909).




45


     10  2000 . 24       (   , 2000,  2, . 170).




46


    17  2008 . 1662-.          24  2008 . 47 . 5489.




47


  .




48


    17  2010 . 1050       20152020 .          31  2011 . 5 . 739.




49


    23  2015 . 497        20162020 .      -   (www.pravo.gov.ru) 28  2015 .,       1  2015 . 22 . 3232.




50


      .. .: [-2030].




51


      (.:      (    28  2000 .));      (12  2008 . -1440);      (12  2013 .);     30  2016 . 640       .




52


, ,       1993 . (    2  1993 . 1833       ),  2000 . (    21  2000 . 706      ),  2010 . (    5  2010 . 146     )   2014 .     (.    -2976).




53


   https://ria.ru/history_comments/20110321/356280998.html




54


    1 1999. 2021-.          13 1999., 50, .6247.


