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Graham Allison

Destined for War



 Graham Allison, 2017

     AST Publishers, 2019


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  , ,   . ,      ,     ,   2015 ,    ,  ,  . ,      ,       :     ,       ;    2013          .        -,      ,            .  ,                .      2015    , ,       .

      ,      ,          -   ,       ,      .            ,    ,           .                ,     ,               .             .

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            :         ?  :        ,      .   ,         .      [14 - Graham Allison, RobertD.Blackwill, and Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2013), 42.].


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,       ,             . ,  , ,            ,     [75 - Thomas Kalil and Jason Miller, Advancing U.S.Leadership in High-Performance Computing, the White House, July 29, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.].          ,     2015     ,     .    2013           ,   .   500     2001           167 ,   ,  .  ,         .          ,     2016     [76 - New Chinese Supercomputer Named Worlds Fastest System on Latest Top500 List, Top500, June 20, 2016, https://www.top500.org/news/new-chinese-supercomputer-named-worlds-fastest-system-on-latest-top500-list/; James Vincent, Chinese Supercomputer Is the Worlds Fastest  and Without Using US Chips, The Verge, June 20, 2016, http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/20/11975356/chinese-supercom-puter-worlds-fastes-taihulight.].

   2016       :                      (             ).         ,                ,  ,  ,       ,          ( ,     5    ,   ,   ,      ,     ) ,    ,          ,   (   4  ,      ,   )[77 - .: Steven Mufson, Energy Secretary Is Urged to EndU.S.Nuclear Fuel Program at Savannah River, Washington Post, September 9, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/energy-secretary-is-urged-to-end-us-nuclear-fuel-program-at-savannah-river/2015/09/09/be6103b45705-lle5-abe927d53f250bll_story.html; Darren Samuelsohn, Billions Over Budget. Two Years After Deadline. Whats Gone Wrong for the Clean Coal Project Thats Supposed to Save an Industry? Politico, May 26, 2015, http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/billion-dollar-kemper-clean-coal-energy-project-000015.].


   

       ,      .      ( )     , ,     ,  ,              .

     :     .  ,     ,        ,     - .         .   1989        ,         ?         .                                ,       .                    ,     ,   ,   ,       ,      .  , ,  ,  ,    ,         .      , , ,           ,      ,     [78 -      .   ,         1964 ,         ,        .   1990-       ,            .               ,         .           2010 ,  ,      ,              .].

    2        1980-  (   4  )[79 -  1988         2,01  ,      3,9 . .: World Bank, Military Expenditure (% of GDP), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS.],               [80 -   72:      72,  ,      .].      146      ( 314    )           [81 - International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2016 (New York: Routledge, 2016), 19.].          6,    ,         .             2015       ,   Ļ.   ,   2017                 : ,       ,            .      ,    -        [82 - Eric Heginbotham et al., TheU.S. China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance ojPower, 19962017 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), xxxi, xxix.].    ,                    .


  

  ,    ,          [83 -            (2012)          :       .  ,           ,     ,      ,     .         . -     ,                 ,    . .: Remarks at the Strategic and Economic DialogueU.S.Press Conference, US Department of State, May 4, 2012, https://20092017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2012/05/189315.htm.].       .         . ,   ,         .         , ,   ,   [84 -      , 2  2011.].

         ,      (      ,    )    .              :     (2016).  ,      ,  , ,            (     )[85 - Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016), 11.].

        ,    (  )   .          130 ,       .       -   15      2015 ,        9 .        [86 -   ,      2016.,          .       2018.;        .],            .

      -:             ;       ,  [87 - ..][88 - Association of Southeast Asian Nations, External Trade Statistics, June 10, 2016, http://asean.org/?static_post=external-trade-statistics-3; Shawn Donnan, China Manoeuvres to Fill US Free-Trade Role, Financial Times, November 21, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/c3840120-aeel-lle6-a37c-f4a01flb0fal.].        ,  -       ,     ,      :              ,   .         .

,          .     ,       .          .          ,            ,   ,    , ,      ,    . ,            ,     :    -      .      :          2010  (       );       2011  (           [89 -              .    2017., -   .         .][90 - Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Books, 2012), 28.],         );        ,         2012  (            - ).

       ,        ,       ,         . ,  2016                   - ,     .         -      ,  ,      ,        .

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       ,               .                ,   2013    ,         ().              ,               2015  (       ,   ).                       ,  .   :                   .     30       ,   ,          2016   130         [91 - James Kynge, China Becomes Global Leader in Development Finance, Financial Times, May 17, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/b995cc7a-lc33-Ile6-a7bc-ee846770ecl5.][92 -     -     2014       684  ,    700  ,      ,   ,   ,   ,         .  , ,  ,   116       ,              . .: Kevin Gallagher, Rohini Kamal, Yongzhong Wang, and Yanning Chen, Fueling Growth and Financing Risk: The Benefits and Risks of Chinas Development Finance in the Global Energy Sector, working paper, Boston University Global Economic Governance Initiative, May 2016, 37, http://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/research/gegi/program-area/china-and-global-development-banking/fueling-growth-and-financing-risk/.].

   ,    ,  ,  ,      .       2008          , ,   ,      ,           G-7.        2014 [93 -   ;            .]                .                 [94 -  ,         ,     ,           .].

     .   2013         1,4        ,       ,        4,4  .           XXI        ,   ()      , , , ,      -     .             ,    .      900 ,     1,4  .       ,        ,  12  .

        .   :       ,      ,           .      ,    -           ;         .     ,              [95 - .: Our Bulldozers, Our Rules, Economist, July 2, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules; Enda Curran, Chinas Marshall Plan, Bloomberg, August 7, 2016, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20160807/china-s-marshall-plan.][96 - Allison, Blackwill, and Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew, 67.].    ໠[97 -        ,     :    ,  ,    .] :  ,    .

                  .      ,            ,    1998             .    ,  ,            .   2009           .       ,        -  ,  ,     .  ,   ,     [98 -     .,  20         .].   ,    1998 ,    ,     ,   - :     ? ,  - ,  :    ?




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 2.   


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      .  ,               ,      -  .   ,    ,              [100 -  ,                 .    20 ,                     .][101 -     -  : Wie es eigentlich gewesen.]   ,              ,    - ,       .   ,  ,                .                ,             .

      ,      ,     ,            ,    :           ( -           ),     ,      .        ,     :     ,    .

             ,        .     ,   ,           .      , , , , , -    ;  ,    ,   ,     . , , , , ,  ( [102 - ,      ,    .][103 - Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, 1.23.6.    ,     ,            . See Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War, ed. RobertB.Strassler, trans. Richard Crawley (New York: Free Press, 1996). //  : . .    ... .: , 1981.]),      ,       .

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 ,         :     ,     .

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         ,      .    ,  ,     ,           .      ,   ,        .  ,       ,        .     ,     ,         .

       -   ,       ?                [104 - Ibid., 1.23.6.     anankasai      . : G.E.M. de Ste. Croix, The Origins of the Peloponnesian War (London: Gerald Duckworth & Company, 1972), 5163.][105 -         ,       .].            ,   , ,    ,       .          ,          :          ,        .  ,          ,       ,        .


  

      490           . -      ,  ()         ,    ,             [106 - Herodotus, Histories, 9.10.1. //  : . .    ... .: , 1972.].

      .                .        .                ,   ,    .        ,       ,         .     ,       ,          , ,    ,    -.           .        ;   ,   .   ,        ,          [107 - Plutarch, Moralia, 241. //  : . . .: , 1999.]




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notes








1


  .   :   [] ,  .     :            ,       .         ,    1997.   ,       .    ..




2


       ,       . .:       ,       ,      (, 1.23.      .);         (:     ,   ,  ,     .     ,     ,   ).   ,               .




3


       ,          .             .




4


        ,        ,       .




5


    ,   ,    ,     .




6


  Defcon (. Defence Readiness Condition    )      .     5  1,  5      ,  2     .  2        ,      (     ).




7


     1  1960.  ,   ..         (   ,    ),        ,             .




8


    ,      .




9


,       ,         .         ,        .




10


  ,      -      ,   ,     :    ,      .




11


.  ,     ,      19581960.




12


Henry Kissinger, foreword to Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2013), ix.




13


   33     1976    ,    22000              1990  2011 . . Chris Buckley, In Lee Kuan Yew, China Saw a Leader to Emulate, New York Times, March 23, 2015, http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/23/in-lee-kuan-yew-china-saw-a-leader-to-emulate.




14


Graham Allison, RobertD.Blackwill, and Ali Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Masters Insights on China, the United States, and the World (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2013), 42.




15


.: World Bank, Merchandise Imports (Current US$), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT?locations=CN; World Bank, Merchandise Exports (Current US$), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VALMRCH.CD.WT?locations=CN.




16


               . ,    8,6    2012   10,6    2014 .            2  .      1,8    2012 , 1,9    2013   2    2014 .  (     )  : International Monetary Funds World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx.




17


         . .: GDP Levels in Western Offshoots, 15001899, in Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2006), 46263.




18


      ,     (   70).




19


      XX      1950.




20


       .            ,   ,    ,      . .: Joel Mokyr, The Lever of Riches: Technological Creativity and Economic Progress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 221.    ,       ,           ,     . .: Bozhong Li and Jan Luiten van Zanden, Before the Great Divergence? Comparing the Yangzi Delta and the Netherlands at the Beginning of the Nineteenth Century, Journal of Economic History 72, no. 4 (December 2012), 972.    ,   1800       ,  ,   ,         1840- . .: Ian Morris, Why the West Rules  for Now (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2010), 496, 63435.




21


Hillary Clinton, Americas Pacific Century, Foreign Policy, October 11, 2011, http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/ll/americas-pacific-century.




22


Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament, November 17, 2011, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament.




23


A Dangerous Modesty, Economist, June 6, 2015, http://www.eco-nomist.com/news/briefing/21653617-america-has-learnt-hard-way-it-cannot-fix-problems-middle-east-barack.




24


Yi Wen, The Making of an Economic Superpower: Unlocking Chinas Secret of Rapid Industrialization (Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific Publishing, 2016), 2.




25


.: International Car Sales Outlook, in Improving Consumer Fundamentals Drive Sales Acceleration and Broaden Gains Beyond Autos, Scotiabank Global Auto Report, September 29, 2016, http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bns_auto.pdf




26


.: As Chinas Smartphone Market Matures, Higher-Priced Handsets Are on the Rise, Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/04/29/as-chinas-smartphone-market-matures-higher-priced-handsets-are-on-the-rise/; Serge Hoffmann and Bruno Lannes, Chinas E-commerce Prize, Bain & Company, 2013, http://www.bain.com/Images/BAIN_BRIEF_Chinas_e-commerce_prize.pdf; Euan McKirdy, Chinas Online Users More Than Double EntireU.S.Population, CNN, February 4, 2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/03/world/china-internet-growth-2014/.




27


Candace Dunn, China Is Now the Worlds Largest Net Importer of Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels, US Energy Information Administration, March 24, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15531; Enerdata, Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2016, https://yearbook.enerdata.net/; Richard Martin, China Is on an Epic Solar Power Binge, MIT Technology Review, March 22, 2016, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601093/china-is-on-an-epic-solar-power-binge/.




28


Stephen Roach, Why China Is Central to Global Growth, World Economic Forum, September 2, 2016, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/09/why-china-is-central-to-global-growth.




29


Brett Arends, Its Official: America Is Now No. 2, MarketWatch, December 4, 2014, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-official-america-is-now-no-22014-1204.




30


Chris Giles, The New World Economy in Four Charts, Alphaville Blog, Financial Times, October 7, 2014, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/10/07/1998332/moneysupply-the-new-world-economy-in-four-charts/.




31


.       : Definitions and Notes, CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html; Tim Callen, PPP Versus the Market: Which Weight Matters? Finance and Development AA, no. 1 (March 2007), http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/03/basics.htm.




32


International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database.




33


., : Tim Worstall, Chinas Now the World Number One Economy and It Doesnt Matter a Darn, Forbes, December 7, 2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/12/07/chinas-now-the-world-number-one-economy-and-it-doesnt-matter-a-darn/; Jeffrey Frankel, Sorry, but America Is Still No. 1, Even If China Is Bigger, Market-Watch, December 5, 2014, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sorry-but-america-is-still-no-12014-1204.




34


 :   ,     .  ,     , ,  ,      .     , ,               ,                 .      ,  :     ,       ,  ,     ,  ,             .      . .: Charles Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes (New York: Wiley Investment Classics, 2005), 22526.




35


International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2016 (New York: Routledge, 2016), 495.




36


      Factiva,     - , -      25  2013   25  2016 ,     , , ϻ  .




37


       .       20102016 .   2016     ,          .




38


                . . : David Harrison, The U.S.May Not Be an Engine of the World Economy for Long, Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2016, blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/03/08/the-u-s-may-be-an-engine-of-the-world-economy-but-perhaps-not-for-long.  ,           2013 .




39


.: World Bank, Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.90 a Day (2011 PPP) (% of Population), accessed November 19, 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty?locations=CN.




40


Beijing to Cut Number of New Cars, Xinhua, October 25, 2016, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1013607.shtml; Hu Shuli, Wang Shuo, and Huang Shan, Kissinger: China, U.S.Must Lead in Cooperation, Caixin, March 23, 2015, http://english.caixin.com/201503-23/100793753.html.




41


Kevin Rudd, The West Isnt Ready for the Rise of China, New Statesman, July 16, 2012, http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/international-politics/2012/07/kevin-rudd-west-isnt-ready-rise-china.




42


Evan Osnos, Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2014), 25.




43


 2011  2013     ,      . .: Jamil Anderlini, Property Sector Slowdown Adds to China Fears, Financial Times, May 13, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/4f74c94a-da77-lle38273-00144feabdc0; . : Ana Swanson,How China Used More Cement in 3 Years than the U.S.Did in the Entire 20th Century, Wonkblog, Washington Post, March 24, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-china-used-more-cement-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-did-in-the-entire-20th-century/.




44


Eoghan Macguire, The Chinese Firm That Can Build a Skyscraper in a Matter of Weeks, CNN, June 26,2015, http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/asia/china-sky scraper-prefabricated.




45


Economist Intelligence Unit, Building Rome in a Day: The Sustainability of Chinas Housing Boom (2011), 2, www.eiu.com/Handlers/Whitepaper-Handler.ashx?fi=Building_Rome_in_a_day_WEB_Updated.pdf




46


Thomas Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum, That Used to Be Us: How America Fell Behind in the World It Invented and How We Can Come Back (New York: Macmillan, 2012), 34.




47


.: China for a Day (but Not for Two), in Thomas Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution  and How It Can Renew America (New York: Picador, 2009), 42955.




48


Jay Bennett, Heres an Overpass in Beijing Being Replaced in Under Two Days, Popular Mechanics, November 20, 2015, http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/al8277/beijing-over-pass-replaced-in-less-than-two-days/.




49


George Fortier and Yi Wen, The Visible Hand: The Role of Government in Chinas Long-Awaited Industrial Revolution, working paper, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, August 2016, 215, https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2016016.




50


Ibid.




51


.: Virginia Postrel, California Hits the Brakes on High-Speed Rail Fiasco, Bloomberg, June 28, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/201606-28/california-hits-the-brakes-on-high-speed-rail-fiasco; Taxpayers Could Pay Dearly for Californias High-Speed-Train Dreams, Economist, March 27, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21695237-taxpayers-could-pay-dearly-californias-high-speed-dreams-biting-bullet.




52


Lu Bingyang and Ma Feng, China to Build Out 45,000 km High-Speed Rail Network, Caixin, July 21, 2016, http://english.caixin.com/201607-21/100968874.html.




53


.: World Bank, Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.90 a Day, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/poverty?locations=CN.




54


          ,       8141   2015    8261   2016 .




55


     ,       .       ͻ (2000).




56


World Bank, World Bank Group President Says China Offers Lessons in Helping the World Overcome Poverty, September 15, 2010, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2010/09/15/world-bank-group-president-says-china-offers-lessons-helping-world-overcome-poverty.




57


    .: Linda Benson, China Since 1949, 3rd ed. (New York: Routledge, 2016), 28; current statistics (19602014) in Life Expectancy at Birth, Total (Years), World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LEOO.IN?locations=CN.    .: Ted Plafker, Chinas Long-but Uneven-March to Literacy, International Herald Tribune, February 12, 2001, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/12/news/chinas-long-but-uneven-march-to-literacy.html;   (19822015) . : Adult Literacy Rate, Population 15+ Years, Both Sexes (%), World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.LITR.ZS?locations=CN.




58


         () ,     ,  , 75    2020 ,       76  .    ,      ,  ,  -  ( )      2020 . .: The Wealth of Nations, Economist, June 17, 2015, http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/06/asia-pacific-wealthier-europe; Global Wealth 2016: Navigating the New Client Landscape, Boston Consulting Group, June 2016, https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/financial-institutions-consumer-insight-global-wealth-2016/?chapter=2.




59


.: Robert Frank, China Has More Billionaires Than US: Report, CNBC, February 24, 2016, http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/24/china-has-more-billionaires-than-us-report.html; UBS/PwC, Billionaires Report, 2016, May 2016, 12, http://uhnw-greatwealth.ubs.com/billio-naires/billionaires-report-2016/.   ,   2015     80 ,     1,5   .




60


    .   Prada.




61


Christopher Horton, When It Comes to Luxury, China Still Leads, New York Times, April 5, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/fashion/china-luxury-goods-retail.html.




62


     2016 ,           ,        ,      .




63


       2015     . ,  ,         2015 ,       . .: OECD, PISA 2015 Results, vol. 1: Excellence and Equity in Education (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2016).




64


     ,          ,     ,     .         2700    11  . .: CliftonB.Parker, Incentives Key to Chinas Effort to Upgrade Higher Education, Stanford Expert Says, Stanford News, August 18, 2016, http://news.stanford.edu/2016/08/18/incentives-key-to-chinas-effort-upgrade-higher-education/.




65


Best Global Universities for Engineering, U.S.News and World Report, http://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/engineering?int=994b08.




66


 SMET (, , , ),     ,             .




67


Te-Ping Chen and Miriam Jordan, Why So Many Chinese Students Come to the U.S., Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-so-many-chinese-students-come-to-the-u-s-1462123552.




68


National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2016 (Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, 2016), https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2016/nsb20161/#/report.




69


Richard Waters and Tim Bradshaw, Rise of the Robots Is Sparking an Investment Boom, Financial Times, May 3, 2016, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/5a352264-0e26-lle6-ad8067655613c2d6.html; World Record: 248,000 Industrial Robots Revolutionizing the World Economy, International Federation of Robotics, June 22, 2016, http://www.ifr.org/news/ifr-press-release/world-record-816/.




70


National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2016.




71


  38      ,       ,          (,   ),  . .: World Intellectual Property Indicators 2016, World Intellectual Property Organization (2016) 7, 21, http://www.wipoint/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_94l_2016.pdf.




72


   2012  397  ,    257  ,  ,       600    2024 ,       500  . .: China Headed to Overtake EU, US in Science & Technology Spending, OECD Says, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, November 12, 2014, http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/china-headed-to-overtake-eu-us-in-science-technology-spending.htm.




73


NormanR.Augustine et al., Restoring the Foundation: The Vital Role of Research in Preserving the American Dream (Cambridge, MA: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2014), 7.




74


.: Pierre Thomas, FBI Director Tells ABC News Whether the US Has the Goods on China, ABC News, May 19, 2014, http://abcnews.go.com/US/fbi-director-tells-abc-news-us-goods-china/story?id=23787051; The Great Brain Robbery, 60 Minutes transcript, CBS News, January 17, 2016, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-great-b rain-robbery-china-cyber-espionage/.




75


Thomas Kalil and Jason Miller, Advancing U.S.Leadership in High-Performance Computing, the White House, July 29, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.




76


New Chinese Supercomputer Named Worlds Fastest System on Latest Top500 List, Top500, June 20, 2016, https://www.top500.org/news/new-chinese-supercomputer-named-worlds-fastest-system-on-latest-top500-list/; James Vincent, Chinese Supercomputer Is the Worlds Fastest  and Without Using US Chips, The Verge, June 20, 2016, http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/20/11975356/chinese-supercom-puter-worlds-fastes-taihulight.




77


.: Steven Mufson, Energy Secretary Is Urged to EndU.S.Nuclear Fuel Program at Savannah River, Washington Post, September 9, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/energy-secretary-is-urged-to-end-us-nuclear-fuel-program-at-savannah-river/2015/09/09/be6103b45705-lle5-abe927d53f250bll_story.html; Darren Samuelsohn, Billions Over Budget. Two Years After Deadline. Whats Gone Wrong for the Clean Coal Project Thats Supposed to Save an Industry? Politico, May 26, 2015, http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/05/billion-dollar-kemper-clean-coal-energy-project-000015.




78


     .   ,         1964 ,         ,        .   1990-       ,            .               ,         .           2010 ,  ,      ,              .




79


 1988         2,01  ,      3,9 . .: World Bank, Military Expenditure (% of GDP), http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS.




80


  72:      72,  ,      .




81


International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2016 (New York: Routledge, 2016), 19.




82


Eric Heginbotham et al., TheU.S. China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance ojPower, 19962017 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), xxxi, xxix.




83


           (2012)          :       .  ,           ,     ,      ,     .         . -     ,                 ,    . .: Remarks at the Strategic and Economic DialogueU.S.Press Conference, US Department of State, May 4, 2012, https://20092017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2012/05/189315.htm.




84


     , 2  2011.




85


Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016), 11.




86


  ,      2016.,          .       2018.;        .




87


..




88


Association of Southeast Asian Nations, External Trade Statistics, June 10, 2016, http://asean.org/?static_post=external-trade-statistics-3; Shawn Donnan, China Manoeuvres to Fill US Free-Trade Role, Financial Times, November 21, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/c3840120-aeel-lle6-a37c-f4a01flb0fal.




89


             .    2017., -   .         .




90


Henry Kissinger, On China (New York: Penguin Books, 2012), 28.




91


James Kynge, China Becomes Global Leader in Development Finance, Financial Times, May 17, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/b995cc7a-lc33-Ile6-a7bc-ee846770ecl5.




92


    -     2014       684  ,    700  ,      ,   ,   ,   ,         .  , ,  ,   116       ,              . .: Kevin Gallagher, Rohini Kamal, Yongzhong Wang, and Yanning Chen, Fueling Growth and Financing Risk: The Benefits and Risks of Chinas Development Finance in the Global Energy Sector, working paper, Boston University Global Economic Governance Initiative, May 2016, 37, http://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/research/gegi/program-area/china-and-global-development-banking/fueling-growth-and-financing-risk/.




93


  ;            .




94


 ,         ,     ,           .




95


.: Our Bulldozers, Our Rules, Economist, July 2, 2016, http://www.economist.com/news/china/21701505-chinas-foreign-policy-could-reshape-good-part-world-economy-our-bulldozers-our-rules; Enda Curran, Chinas Marshall Plan, Bloomberg, August 7, 2016, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20160807/china-s-marshall-plan.




96


Allison, Blackwill, and Wyne, Lee Kuan Yew, 67.




97


       ,     :    ,  ,    .




98


    .,  20         .




99


   ,     -  ,        .               .




100


 ,                 .    20 ,                     .




101


    -  : Wie es eigentlich gewesen.




102


,      ,    .




103


Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, 1.23.6.    ,     ,            . See Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War, ed. RobertB.Strassler, trans. Richard Crawley (New York: Free Press, 1996). //  : . .    ... .: , 1981.




104


Ibid., 1.23.6.     anankasai      . : G.E.M. de Ste. Croix, The Origins of the Peloponnesian War (London: Gerald Duckworth & Company, 1972), 5163.




105


        ,       .




106


Herodotus, Histories, 9.10.1. //  : . .    ... .: , 1972.




107


Plutarch, Moralia, 241. //  : . . .: , 1999.


