  : , , .     
  


      , - ,     ,              19912019 .                 ,        .







    



 90-     










               .        2007 .,      .

        .        ,     ,    ,           ,   ,   .

                    .      - ,     ,          ,     ,                .                    .

              ,        ().            :    ,   .     -        ,       ,     ,          ,  - .

           -,      ,       .

  ,        .        -       .        2030 .,    2015 ., ,             -   [1 - .:       2030 . .:   , 2015. . 4.].        -        .

          ,     .             .

       ,          .      ,     ,                 ,          .   ,  ,             .

             .                .    -   컠       ,        .

-      ,        .       .        ,          .         ,     ,     .            ,      .

 ,  ,       .   ,   ,  ,   [2 -  .       // . 2019. 13 . . 5.],   ,      .         ,    [3 - .:    / . . .. . .:  , 2017. . 62101.]    .

     ,      ,   ,   ,         ,     .  ,          -    .       (  ,       .),         .                    ,             .

               ,          :      .. ,     2017 .    .

             -             -    .

 : ... ..  (. , , . 4), ... ..  (. 1), ... ..  ( , . 2), ... ..  (. 3 12), ... ..  (. 5 8), ... ..  (. 6), ... ..  (. 7), ... ..  (. 9), ..  (. 10), ... ..  (. 11).




 1

       [4 -     :  ..       I . .:  , 2015.]



    

 ,   ,              ,     .    ,  ,       [5 -  .:    . .; : -, 2011.  11.].

    ,  黠 ,   .     ,    ,       .  ,        ,     [6 -  .:   ( ). , 2005.].

          [7 -      ,    .].             .       :    15   ,    ,      ,   .   ,     .       , ,   ,            ,    .

                               . ,              .   ,    ,                  .         :          .

         .         .   :                  .  ,   ,            [8 -  .        //  . 2012. 8. inosmi.ru/politic/20121208/203094353.].

  ,       ,        .        .         .    ,        ,     .         .            ,         .  ,             .                ,      . I .      ,    ,         -   .

    -,             .               ,          .             ,             :                    .

              . XXI .   ,    ,           .

      :            , , , -  .      ,     ,     .

           .                ,          ,       ,       .     ,            ,           ,     .

     ,    ,       (),              ,    ,             -  [9 -  .  :      //  . 2015. 23 . . 5.].            ,    .      :      :      :               [10 -  .].

       ,  ,   ,         ,   40%   .


     

           .       , ,    ,          .     ,      ,            .

  .   . [11 -  .,  .     :   // . 2013. 8. . 3538.]       :        :             .   ,     ?      .

     ..     .  ,        ,      .        ()        ( . ..),         [12 -  ..   :         : . . - . . : , 2006.].

        ,      .      .    600   ,      ,          ,     ,            .

                       .

          ,  ,    - ,   ,          .

 ,     ,     .    :           ,                .

          .   :  ,            ,             : , , , , ,  .           ,       .

             .         ,        .      ,       ,    .

-,        , ..      ,       .

-,   (    )        ,       .            ,         .  ,              .

-,          ,                         ()     .  ,      ,               .        ,               ,      .

-,          :              ,     ,                 ,       ,       .

 ,   ,          ()       ().

                        ,            ,        ( ,   , ).

             ,    ,       .  90- .       .  ,  (  )          -      ,    .

                ,      .        ,   ,   ,         ,   .                .

         ,    ,  (  ,     )    .   :         ,                 (    )  .

               ,  ,    ,           .


        

   ,   1990- .            .             .    1995  2007 .      1,5    28,4  18,9%           1,48    2,5  3,7%[13 -  : World Trade Developments    : . .   .].

 ,   20142015 .,       ,       .              ().    ,       ,         ,          ,         .

                ,               .                    ,       .       (connectivity),               .

  ,    ,    ,            [14 -   ,         25%     ().     ,             .       0,33 (25 : 75). .: Micbaely M. Trade Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An-Ante Assesment // Policy Research Working Paper N 1538. World Bank, 1966; Martin J.K., Tsangarides C. Trade Reform in the CEMAK: Developments and Opportunities // IMF Country Report N. 06/309. Washington D.C.: IMF, 2006.].

     :  (2,7  2005 . 2,23  2012 .),  (1,04  1,18),   (1,27  0,98),     (0,33  0,37). ,                ,  ,             .    .          :            .        .

     ,         .          ,      2013 .   18%,       .   ,   ,                      .

 :              ?             .   ,        . -,         ; -,              ( ); -,          - ; -,         .

 /        :         ,                .

      [15 - Diana Tussie. Latin America: contracting motivations for regional projects // Review for International Studies. 2009. Vol. 35. Supplement 51, February. p. 169188.].  ,                   ,      .            .

           .       :    ,   - ,    ,       ;            .           .

    (       ) ,             .           ,  ,  ,     ,     .        ,              .

                       .                 -   .            (  )         ( ).

               .                             .             ,    - .

         ,    , ,   ,        .       2005 .   ,          0,33,  ,  ,   2012 .   0,37.   ?         (  )     ,     .        ,         ,         -,     .      ,    ,       .


     

     (   )      , , ,    ,    , . .           .       .

        ,      ,      .                     ,   ,       .

   , ,                        ?

                 .       :           300  600    .        ,    , ,    ,         ,      .                   ()      .

           ,        ,       .       ,                 .

            .        ,   ,        ,       .         .

,   ,             . .  :  ,       ,   ,          ()    [16 - . :  ..     //  . Exlibris. 2004. 8.].

       ,      .         .       .   ,                             .            ,            .            ,        .

                     ,       ,         ,       .                 .

                 .             .

            .            .      , ,       ,                 .          .             ,    ,      ,  .

  ,               .   ,     ,               .       ,           .            (  ).           ,       ,        /           .       ,           .

 ,        ,   ,         ,             [17 - Gering J. Connectivity: A Key Factor in International Development. pdfs.semanticscholar.org/628 9/71710086ba88546d50818188101727b6abe9.pdf].        .                :       ,   ,       ,          ,    ,        .

            ,             ,     .         ,     ,  ,       .   ,                   .           ,    .               .             ,       .      .                        -    .                        (,   ,       ,   ,     ..).

      .         ,                   -         .

                (    ).  ,    ,          .         ,   ,     .  ,        .             -            -     .

    , ,                            .           .    ,       ,  ,          .

    .             ,          ,              ,     .




 2

 :   vs  


 ,     ,      1994 .       ..    ,            .   25                , ,      .


     

   -            ,   ,     .            ,      - .     ,  ,        ,       ,        [18 -     /  . .. , .. . .: -, 2011. . 34.]   .

 ,     , ,                ,  ,    .        [19 -  ..          20052015 . //  . 2017. 4. . 31.].   ,               .         ,      .        ,       [20 -   :     ( ) /  . . .. . .:   , 2013. . 81.].

          .          [21 -  ..    :    //   . 2015. 2. . 96.].             .               [22 -  ..,  ..  . II  2017 . , :    ,    , 2017. . 5.].          ,     .  ,    .. ,        , ,    ,      [23 -  ..    - .  I. ,   ? //  . 2018. 11. . 1718.].

    ,              . ,     ,     -       ,        ,        - ,    -,     [24 -     2014.  . .:  , 2014. . 25.].         ,                        ()   - [25 -     2017. .:  , 2017. . 18.]. .   .  ,            . , , -           [26 -  .,  .  :     //     . 2014. 4 (25). C. 25.].

      ,   ,    . , ..  ,          [C ]           ( );          - 腻[27 -  ..       XXI .  . .:   , 2015. . 20.]. ..  ,             :         ,         [28 -  ..       ,        //    . 2018. 3 (100). . 104.].

      :     ,             .                     .    ,     ,          -    [29 -   :    . . 8788.]. ..  ,             :                ,      ,     [30 -  ..      :     /     / . . .. . M.:  , 2010. C. 18, 2223.].


 .  ,  ?

,         , , , , ,    (   ,   ..)      .    ()            л,             .

 2017 .              :   ,  50%          , ,     .        (80%),  (79%)   (66%).    31%           ,    (61%)    [31 -     2017. . 15.].

            , ,   .                 .        -    ,   (, )              .         .  :          ?          20%   ,  ,  ,  (49,5%),  (39,9%)   (36,2%) [32 -  .    /  . . . .:  , 2012. . 29.].                     [33 -  ..       ,       . . 107.].

                 ,   ,   ,         ,    - .

          .            ,           ,  ,    [34 -  :     (19922008 ) / . . . . . .. . .:  , 2008. . 36.].          ( ,    )        -   ,   .       .     ,     ,         ,      [35 - .:  . -x :    //     . 2015. 2 (27).].

 ,        (  )      : -, -, -,    .    ,     ,   -   ,     - .

,             .      (91%)   ,   (42%)  .   (83%)     (   ) [36 - Caucasus Barometer 2013 regional dataset / The Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC) caucasusbarometer.org/en/cb2013/MAINFRN.].             - .              ,      [37 -  ..,  ..,  ..   :     . .:   , 2014. . 62, 67.],         .  2017 .              : , ,  .     (69%),  (68%)   (60%),      (36%)[38 -     2017. . 16.].

 ,               .   ..   .. ,      ,                [39 -  ..,  ..       . .:   , 2011. . 3738.]. ,    2006 . (  15     !)       ()          ().  2009 .         -   ,                           2020 .   2011 .                      .

 ,    90- .,                ,   ,           [40 -    :   . .: -, 2009. . 35.].        ,      ,    . ,       ,     ,      [41 -  .    :      . .:   , 2019. 11 . carnegie.ru/2019/02/11/ru-pub-78328.].

           .      ,   2015 ., ,  ,     ,    .      ,          (  ,     ),         ,           [42 -     2017. . 2122.].

,          л           .               (     ).          .       - .            (  ,    )[43 -  . . 20.].

               ,     ,    [44 -           //       . 2009, . eurasiamonitor.org/uploads/s/g/f/f/gffzlsnpxne/file/o9GDpzJR.pdf;  ..           .  . Ecsocman.hse.ru/data/2011/09/02/1267440637/ Rybakovsky.pdf.].         (   ,            ).       20052007 . ,    ( 1015 ..).        , ,  ,    ,    [45 -            //  . 2011. 5. www.eurasiamonitor.org/uploads/s/g/f/f/ gffzlsnrpxne/file/5ccofuh7.ppt.].        (      )     .       15%     82%  [46 -             . .:   , 2014. . 42.].    ,     (        )          [47 -    2014. .: -, 2015. C. 156.].

          ,    ,        ,   ,    .     ( 60  .   15  29 )    280  .,   .       18  29%  [48 -     :  . .:  : , 2018. . 15.].

           ,        .    ,          ( ,     ).        ,        30 ,                .     ,   25           ( ,     , ,    .), ,   ,        ,     (  , ,   .)         [49 -   2027:   .       / .. , .. . :      , 2017. . 26, 76.].

 ,                 ,            .                    .          . , ,       55%  ,        39%[50 -         . 19912016 /   , 2017. . 18, 19.].

           ,    ,             .    -,  20%          , ,      [51 -    2014. . 158.].


      

            ,    .   ,                          [52 -  . . . . . 16.],  ,               (. . 2.1).          8 ,      5.          (,        2,5%    )     ,     ,          .

    -        ,    ,      .         : -,   ( ,     ); -  -,               ,  ,       .                  (    )      .



 2.1.      







 2008 .; 


       ,       .




    (          );




     15  24 ,  %      /    ;   ;




        20152017 .,    .

:           20142017. .:    , 2018. . 12;       20152017. .:    , 2019. . 19;          20142017. .:    , 2018. . 44;     2017 . .:    , 2018. . 146;           /      . . 5;   . 2017. .: , 2017. . 129; Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2018 Statistical Update. N.-Y.: United Nations Development Programme, 2018. P. 6062; Human Development Report 2016: Work for Human Development. Washington, D. C.: UNDP, 2016. P. 250252; Human Development Report 2015: Work for Human Development. Washington, D. C.: UNDP, 2015. P. 217; The World Bank (Data Sets). data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV. GINI; data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS; ;data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.NAHC/countries.



  ,   -         ,         .   .   .  ,       () ,  , .          ,              . ,      ,          [53 -  ..,  ..   :  . .: , 2011. . 179.].

,     ,              .    .. ,   -        ,      ,   , ,   ,      ..[54 -  .. . . . 20.].

          ,     ,         .   2018 .  4%  ,        .  ,      (31%),   (27),  (24)    (12%)[55 -  . .,  . .,  . .,  . .     . XLVII      ?,  2018 . / . . .. . .: - -, 2018. . 56.].

   ,      .    ,  ,     ,   ,    ,         ,   ,     (42  18% )[56 -  . . 9;  . .,  . .          //  . 2016. . 25. 2. . 48.].            ,         .      ,         [57 -  . .           //  . 2017. 9. . 45, 48.],     ,       .

         1990- .          .    ,         [58 -  ..,  ..        ? (   ).    //    . 2017. 6 (142). . 7.].         ,  ,    ,             ,        ,  , ,  .     2017 .      ,  1995  2015 .    (1%   )     2    22  43%[59 - World Inequality Report-2018. World Inequality Lab. 2017. P. 113.].   2018 .  (32%)         [60 -  ..,  ..,  ..,  .. . . . 8.].

      1998 .          .      ,     ,   2000- .   (   ),            (. 2.2).

 ,  ,            .       ,    ,      (  )     ,     - .   ,         (2,6%)   1020%   [61 -  .    //     . 2015. 12. . 112.].         ,  2014 .     ,     2015 .     53,5%      .[62 -  Weekly. 2016. 675676, 22 . 6 . demoscope.ru/weekly/2016/0675/ panorm01.php#8.]



 2.2.      







2003 .; 


2004 .; 


2006 .; 


2007 .; 


2008 .; 


2009 .; 


2012 .; 


2016 .

 :           20142017. .:    , 2018. . 12, 14; The World Bank (Data Sets) data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI; data. worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.NAHC.



    ,      . ,     Credit Suisse Group AG,       (0,41)         0,84[63 -  ..,  ..         //   :    . 2015. 6. . 24.]. .. ,    - . , .   . ,   0,55. ,     ,  1998  2012 .         ( 0,49  0,33) [64 -  .    // . 2019. 5.].

               ,                 .   (   )   4,3       6,4   [65 - Human development indices and indicators: 2018 statistical update. P. 7274.] (, ,     ,       - ).

 ,        ,     ,          .   2018 .    ,    ,     .         9 ..[66 -  . .,  . .,  . .,  . . . . . 60.] ,        ,    ,              , ,    셻[67 -  .      //  . 2017. 1. . 125.].

      ,    ,  , , .   . ,          ,        [68 -  . . ,       :         //    . 2013. 2 (18). . 176.].      ,        ,    ,          ,      . ,    ,     ,           [69 -  .       //     . 2016. 1. . 53.].

            ,      -    .  , ,    ,  () -              .       ,    [70 -  ..,  ..  . . 28.].     ,                        ( ),        19801990- ,       (  ),    (    ),     [71 -  .,  .        //  . 2016. 1. . 54.].               ,            [72 -  . .           //  . 2011. 2. . 55.].

                      .   2014 .      63 ,    59   5  ( 2010 .        60 ), ,      63  58 ,     62   57 ,   60  56  (  2011 .        60 ),      ,     63 .             60     55   ,     2019 .    60     65   .

               65 ,      .       ,     .   ,       65     4%,      ;   4  7%      ;  7%   .    , , , ,        ;         ;  ,         .

          ,          ,        ,             .   2017 .             ( 1,5 )   ( 2 ).              ( 2,5 ),    ( 1,5 )[73 -           20142017. .:    , 2018. . 15.].

            .    2017 . ,       2430%, , ,     3140%,     4144%[74 -      . www.cisstat.ru/rus/macro/zp-1.pdf,            20142017. .:    , 2018. . 23.].  : , , , , , ,  , ,     (      )   50%;    60%; , , , , , , ,    70%[75 -       //   ( ). 2014. 12 (543). . 89.].

      ,  - ,                 ,    .         ,    2006 .           .  ,      ,    - .     .  ,      .     ,         ,          ,          ,    [76 - .:  ..,  ..,  ..         :      ? //   . 2014. 3. . 6, 17.].


 :   

                     .     ,              ,     .            ,        ,      ,        ..[77 -  ..   :         //     . 2017. 4 (20). . 141.].

 , , ,       [78 -         ,          .         (       )  .],            ,      2,1    . , , , ,   , ,     ,                 [79 -        2013  //   ( ). 2014. 12 (543). . 12.].

          -   : ?       ? (35,3%)   [80 -  ..   -     :    /   VIII   . . 1819  2018 .].             1529 .   .       1,7 ()  3,1  ()     (  ,       3,8%        4,9%)[81 -     . 2.1.].          1025%  , , , ,             (. 2.1).

        1529 ,      .         20%   (   )   32  46%   ( ,   ) (. 2.2).       ,   .          ,         .






. 2.1.    1529 ,   12   

:     :  . .:  , , 2018. . 135.






. 2.2.       1529 ,   12   

:     :  . .:  , , 2018. . 134.



                ,          .

      (    )     (      )               (. 2.3).



 2.3.          1989 (   )  2050 .,  .







.

:             . .:   , 2014. . 42.



              .       ,            .            ,       .  ,     (      ,         ),              .                   ,      28  2014 .[82 -     . www.fms.gov.ru/documentation/865/ details/81610/.]  ,            .      ,     ,  ,      .   , ,         ,       .  ,         ,              .  ,       [83 -  ..,  ..,  .. .             . .:   , 2014. . 130.].

               2017 .  53%  (  3        10 ..).                       ,    ,       ,   [84 -     2017. . 14.],    77%    , ,      .

   -  ,  32  52%              .    ,    . ,       60% ,     44%,     39%.   23   2,9    ,       .    10             ,   .        (30  48% )   (36  46%)[85 -  .. . .].       ,    , ,  , ,        ,         [86 -  ..        :      .    //    . 2017. 1. . 168.].

        ,    ( 53%  2015 .  37%  2017 .),  ( 27  17%),  ( 38  30%).         , ,  ,     [87 -     2017. . 14.].                         .         ,        ,              ,    [88 -   2027:   .      . . 31.].

       ,              ,       ,                        .




 3

          -



-      

              -    ,     .                 (3,3%),        (4,1%),      (          )   0,11         .   ,      ,  ,                        .                    [89 -  .. -        //       :  . . . 45  2017 . /. . ..., ... .. . M.:  , 2018. . 320322.].   ,                 [90 -      2012 .  .     . One Exchange Square London EC2A 2JN  , 2012. . 78.].

          20132017 .   -  (),            (  )        100.           -.      () ,     ,      .       -     ,     ( )     .           (   )  .       10       (. 3.1).

 ,           : 1)     ()       ()   20132016 .; 2)     ()        2017 .                .



 3.1.    і5  20132017 .




 :  ITC. Trade Map, November 2018; IMF. World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018.



  ,    2013 2017 . -     13,2%     0,416.                     .               (  ,   ,   ,       ),        2015 .     (    )     2017 .     2013 . (         ).                  .           (      ),     ( ?)      .

                        .   ,  2017 .    -  (0,4541,973)        :   ,       ;   (0,1070,320)      ,       ,   (0,091  )               (  ,       ),                     .        ,    ,  ,           - [91 -  ..       //  . 2018. 2. . 161173.].

   -        39,1%     0,277.          ,      ,   ,               .     20132016 .,       2017 .    .                         822%,           3146%.     -       2017 . (. 3.2).



 3.2.    і5      20132017 .




 :  ITC. Trade Map, November 2018; IMF. World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018.



 20132017 . -         (       )   26,0%,     0,152.             , ,  .               .                ,         ,     -   .  20152016 .    2012 2013 .         68,6%,       21,1%.

 , -       1,5  ,      ,   2,7  ,   .          20132017 .       ,            ,             .                    .


    :      

          -    ,     .     ( )        : 1)      ; 2)      ,    ; 3)      .

  20132018 .          (       20132016 .    20172018 .).                 (  ).       ( 2  2015 .)        ,        .              ,      [92 -  ..,  ..,  ..  : ,    :   /   . .. . .:   , 2016.].

         .       ,           ,   (  )            .       2018 .       (88,7  . 2013 .)    108,3  .,      (3,8  .)   .  ,                   ,         [93 - , ,        2013 .  6,1  . ( 2016 . 4,5  .),   2018 .    9,6  .] (. 3.3).

 20132018 .          ,         -.      (і3)        (  ),      ,          -    ()     .          ,     .           ,    ,        (. 3.4).



 3.3.        (%)




.     2017 .

 :      ;     ;  ; ITC. Trade Map. November 2018.





 3.4.      і3  20132018 . (%)




.                       .

 :    .



                      .  20132017 .            ( 3,7  3,1%),     ( 5,7  3,4  .) .                    16,3  22,2%,        ( 7,3  6,1  .).  ,               20,4  25,4%,        18,2  25,9%[94 -     ITC. TradeMap, November 2018.].            ,                 (  ).                    ,           -.

        (          )         [95 - . :  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..        :   .  . .:   , 2018;  ..     . .: , 2019. . 190205.].   20132017 .     ()      ( )   6,5  . ( 4,3%    )  11,1  . ( 6,3%),          ( 118  268  .),  ( 5,7  9,4  .)   ( 0,7  1,4  .)[96 -       . IMF. Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS).].                ,          Geely.                  .         ,     2016 .                  [97 -  ..,  .. .     :       2017..:  , 2017. . 4548.].


        

                  .  ,     2013 .       ,            ,            .   2015 .                   ()[98 -                     . , 8  2015 . kremlin.ru/supplement/4971.],              .        -      (, 17  2018 .).

     ,          .    :        ,      ;       ;    ;   ;        , , ,  , - ,   ,    ,    [99 -   -        -,   ,    ,   . docs.eaeunion.org/docs/ru-ru/01417818/iatc_21052018.].

,     ,  -        [100 -  ..     //  . 2018. 3. . 187189.].           ,                ,     .  ,  (,        )          .

                 ().  ,   2009 .            .              (, , , ,   ).   2014 .         ,   .   2017 .              (CEPA),           .

  2018 .                 (Connecting Europe and Asia  Building blocks for an EU Strategy)[101 - Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank Connecting Europe and Asia  Building blocks for an EU Strategy. Brussels, 19.9.2018. eeas.europa.eu/ headquarters/headquarters-homepage/50708/connecting-europe-and-asia-building-blocks-eu-strategy_en.].            -   .     (connectivity)      ,      .

  ,             [102 - Ibid. Pp. 23.]:

1)              ,     ;

2)             ,     , ,   ;

3)             ,         .

                  .    ( )    (  ),  ,               -             [103 - Ibid. P. 8.].

        ,        ,     ,   .     (, )       ,        .           і,     ,    .                     ,            .

    ,  ,  .  ,              ,             .


***

   ,        ()       .      ()  ,          (   ) .                           [104 -      7  2018 . 204             2024 . www. kremlin.ru/acts/bank/43027.].            -                      .                .




 4

  :  ,  ,   [105 -           .]


           .            ,         [106 - ASEF Outlook 2016/ 2017 / Connectivity: Fact and Perspectives. Volume II: Connecting Asia and Europe/ ASEF. Singapure. 2016. asef.org/images/docs/ASEF%20Outlook%20Report%20 2016-2017%20Vol1.pdf; Understanding the Theory of International Connectivity. Report. Oxera. Department for Transport. Oxford-Brussels. 2010. www.oxera.com/wp-content/ uploads/2018/03/Theory-of-international-connectivity.pdf.].          .        ,    ,    .       ,  .   . .   ( )       .             ,      .     ,       .         ,      ,    ,   [107 -  ..,  ..   . .: , 2012. . 7.].             ,    .  ,                   .


         20092018 

                 ,[108 -       1  2010 .,      1  2018 .]    ,     ,        [109 -        :   .  48. .: .   , 2018. . 19.].   , ,       ,    .           50,1  . 2010 .  66,5  . 2011 . 2012 . ,     2016 .   [110 -          .] (. 4.1).  2017 .        2018 .   60  .[111 -   ,  ,                    .]



 4.1.          




 :  -: WorldBank.Opendata.19602017.data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locale=ru&locations=; .  .     .  2018 .  . www.eurasiancommission. org/ru/act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/tradestat/tables/Pages/default.aspx;        2011  2013 . .:   , 2011, 2013.



           ,   . 4.1, ,   ,       - .     ,        ,       5  ,      [112 -  :   -       .  2017 .          17,89%,        19,77% ( :    World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. WTO. Geneva. 2018. P. 74. www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2018_e/wts2018_e.pdf; World Bank. Open data. 19602017. data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locale=ru&locations=).].    ,                        .

     ,          25%[113 -  ..  :    .  . .:  , 2009. . 9.].    ,        5 ,   c 10,5%  2009 .  11,4%  2012 . 14,1%  2017 .  2018 .            12,2%.

          20142016 .      .        ,             .            ,  2017 .  64  50%[114 - World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. Geneva: WTO, 2018. P.74.].

             ,        ,           25%-     .             ,       2,9%   ,     2,3%,  ,     3,2%   -.

       ,      25%- ,       . ,    ,   ,   20152017 .    ,   2018 .    (. 4.2).     ,       9%,  ,     6263%  .  2018 .          8,1%.



 4.2.         20092018 .




 :  -: .  .     .  2018 . www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/ act/integr_i_makroec/dep_stat/tradestat/tables/Pages/default.aspx;      . .:    (  ).



                     ,     .

-      ,   .            2017 .   300 .,   ,     183 .,  ,     480 .         7400 .   [115 -  :     World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. WTO. Geneva. 2018. P. 74.].                             ,    -.

        ,      ,   ,      [116 -  ..,  ..,  ..        //    . 2017. 1. . 23.].         (2012 .)   (2015 .)    ,       ,        ,    .          () [117 -      :   .   30 /   .. . .:  , 2015. . 8.].

           ,    2018 .,                  [118 -          . . 2018. . 5. www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/Docoments/%%20%20-%20%20202018.pdf.].

     -           ,        ,     -.          ,           .    ,       .  20142017 .          2,1  . (2015 .)  1,1  . (2017 .),       ,   ,  13%  3%[119 -      . 2017 //  . . 2018. . 67.].    80%       .

    :   ;             ;  - ;      ;    ;               .           .            ,            (,  ,    ..),      .     ,           .

  ,        (, , )    .  ,   -    1  2016 .             ,           .                 .            . ,     -      2030 .             .[120 -  ..     //     . 2018. 1(38). . 5067.]

       ,            .                    ,     ,    .           [121 -  ..        //    . 2016. 4. . 147158.].          ,          .                  .                 20152017 . 14,6  .  16,2  .  2018 .   19,3 . .                    ,                  [122 -  ,                     (. 2018. 30 . . 7).                ,          . ( ..,  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..        :   .  . .:  , 2018. . 23).]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=49867546)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes



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.:       2030 . .:   , 2015. . 4.




2


 .       // . 2019. 13 . . 5.




3


.:    / . . .. . .:  , 2017. . 62101.




4


    :  ..       I . .:  , 2015.




5


 .:    . .; : -, 2011.  11.




6


 .:   ( ). , 2005.




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13


 : World Trade Developments    : . .   .




14


  ,         25%     ().     ,             .       0,33 (25 : 75). .: Micbaely M. Trade Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An-Ante Assesment // Policy Research Working Paper N 1538. World Bank, 1966; Martin J.K., Tsangarides C. Trade Reform in the CEMAK: Developments and Opportunities // IMF Country Report N. 06/309. Washington D.C.: IMF, 2006.




15


Diana Tussie. Latin America: contracting motivations for regional projects // Review for International Studies. 2009. Vol. 35. Supplement 51, February. p. 169188.




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. :  ..     //  . Exlibris. 2004. 8.




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Gering J. Connectivity: A Key Factor in International Development. pdfs.semanticscholar.org/628 9/71710086ba88546d50818188101727b6abe9.pdf




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    /  . .. , .. . .: -, 2011. . 34.




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  :     ( ) /  . . .. . .:   , 2013. . 81.




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.:  . -x :    //     . 2015. 2 (27).




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Caucasus Barometer 2013 regional dataset / The Caucasus Research Resource Centers (CRRC) caucasusbarometer.org/en/cb2013/MAINFRN.




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 .    :      . .:   , 2019. 11 . carnegie.ru/2019/02/11/ru-pub-78328.




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    2017. . 2122.




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        . 19912016 /   , 2017. . 18, 19.




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54


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 . .,  . .,  . .,  . .     . XLVII      ?,  2018 . / . . .. . .: - -, 2018. . 56.




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 . . 9;  . .,  . .          //  . 2016. . 25. 2. . 48.




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World Inequality Report-2018. World Inequality Lab. 2017. P. 113.




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          20142017. .:    , 2018. . 15.




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     . www.cisstat.ru/rus/macro/zp-1.pdf,            20142017. .:    , 2018. . 23.




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      //   ( ). 2014. 12 (543). . 89.




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.:  ..,  ..,  ..         :      ? //   . 2014. 3. . 6, 17.




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        ,          .         (       )  .




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    . www.fms.gov.ru/documentation/865/ details/81610/.




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    2017. . 14.




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  2027:   .      . . 31.




89


 .. -        //       :  . . . 45  2017 . /. . ..., ... .. . M.:  , 2018. . 320322.




90


     2012 .  .     . One Exchange Square London EC2A 2JN  , 2012. . 78.




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, ,        2013 .  6,1  . ( 2016 . 4,5  .),   2018 .    9,6  .




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    ITC. TradeMap, November 2018.




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. :  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..        :   .  . .:   , 2018;  ..     . .: , 2019. . 190205.




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                    . , 8  2015 . kremlin.ru/supplement/4971.




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Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank Connecting Europe and Asia  Building blocks for an EU Strategy. Brussels, 19.9.2018. eeas.europa.eu/ headquarters/headquarters-homepage/50708/connecting-europe-and-asia-building-blocks-eu-strategy_en.




102


Ibid. Pp. 23.




103


Ibid. P. 8.




104


     7  2018 . 204             2024 . www. kremlin.ru/acts/bank/43027.




105


          .




106


ASEF Outlook 2016/ 2017 / Connectivity: Fact and Perspectives. Volume II: Connecting Asia and Europe/ ASEF. Singapure. 2016. asef.org/images/docs/ASEF%20Outlook%20Report%20 2016-2017%20Vol1.pdf; Understanding the Theory of International Connectivity. Report. Oxera. Department for Transport. Oxford-Brussels. 2010. www.oxera.com/wp-content/ uploads/2018/03/Theory-of-international-connectivity.pdf.




107


 ..,  ..   . .: , 2012. . 7.




108


      1  2010 .,      1  2018 .




109


       :   .  48. .: .   , 2018. . 19.




110


         .




111


  ,  ,                    .




112


 :   -       .  2017 .          17,89%,        19,77% ( :    World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. WTO. Geneva. 2018. P. 74. www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2018_e/wts2018_e.pdf; World Bank. Open data. 19602017. data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locale=ru&locations=).




113


 ..  :    .  . .:  , 2009. . 9.




114


World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. Geneva: WTO, 2018. P.74.




115


 :     World Trade Sttistical Review 2018. WTO. Geneva. 2018. P. 74.




116


 ..,  ..,  ..        //    . 2017. 1. . 23.




117


     :   .   30 /   .. . .:  , 2015. . 8.




118


         . . 2018. . 5. www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/Docoments/%%20%20-%20%20202018.pdf.




119


     . 2017 //  . . 2018. . 67.




120


 ..     //     . 2018. 1(38). . 5067.




121


 ..        //    . 2016. 4. . 147158.




122


 ,                     (. 2018. 30 . . 7).                ,          . ( ..,  ..,  ..,  ..,  ..        :   .  . .:  , 2018. . 23).


