  
 


    ,  , -,    ,    .  ,     -,  , ,        .        ,   250 .  ,      ,   ,      .  ,      :    ,   ,  .

     :             .





 

  



Copyright  2016 Brett King

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature without the prior written permission of Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Pte Ltd. Russian translation rights arranged with Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Pte Ltd.

 2016 Brett King

    , , .  -, 2020




  


        ,   ,     .    , ,  ,        :    ?   ,    , ,  , , ?        ?           ?      ,  , ,   , ,   , ,  .      ,  ,  ,  Apple     ,    Google       XXI   2099.          , -    ,          .

            ,     ,  :   -      ,     .    , ,   ,   ,  , , :    ,      .           ,           ,     ,     .   ,           (   ),      ,    .        ,      ,  ,    ,      ,            .     ,           ,   .     :      8500   ,     ;   1000 ,    80   -,  130  ,     .      ,  : ,  ,      ,   -, , , ,    ,         .

     ,     .  500        -       ,    , ,   .

      ,            .  ,   ,    , ,  Scanadu Scout  .            ,        .  ,     ,       .

            .          :  ,       ,  ,        ,    .     ,         .            .  ,  ,  ,    .     Z      ,       .     ,      , ,  ;      ,       .

 , ,      .       ,   ,    ;   ,       ; ,        ,    . ,    ,             ,    .

 ,            







    .       ,   .

 . 

   ,  ,       .            ,        .










      Moven[1 - Moven   2011          ,           . . .],      ,     .   ,           ,  : Las Vetas , Koffee -, -  Algonquin -, Coupa Caf -, Les Deux Magots .   Drip Caf  Artista Perfetto , Truth Coffee , Scopa Caffe      Starbucks   .  - FinTech Mafia,       .        .      Performance Flight,     .    ,  , ,        ,               ,  .           ,  ,      Marshall Cavendish  ,     .   ,       ,   ,    .

     , ,    ,          ,         , ,  ,     .

 :      ,      .

 :          ,   ,       ,      ,  ,          ,   -  ,      ,             .







         . ,           -.        , ,     ;       .      ,     ,         ,      .   , ,    ,           ,  .     Z[2 - Z (. GenerationZ)  ,              ,     . . .],     ,  ,        .    -        ,        .

       ,        ,        .               Facebook?     -    ?    ,   ,      ?   ,         Wi-Fi    ?    ?

,  ,       .    ,    -      ,     .     ,  ,   .     ,     .       ,     .   , -   ,            .

        .      ,         .

,        , ,   YouTube,        ,  [3 -  ,       . . .],  WikiLeaks,  PRISM[4 - PRISM (.  . Program for Robotics, Intelligents Sensing and Mechatronics)         ,      ,       (). . .]       Occupy.     Facebook  Twitter ,  ,   2008    ,                 .        ,             .

          ?         ,       ?

        ,     ;        ,       ,      .   ,                     .       2025, 2030  ?      ?   ,         .

      ,      ,     ,      .          ,   , ,  , ,     ,      ,         .

          ,   .  ,         ,    .  ,          .    ,       , ,  !  ,     .   ,  ,   ,             .

,  ,                .        !        ,      ?    -  ,    , ,        ,    ,  ,     ,   .

  軠    ,              , ,    ,          .    ,        .

,       .

      ,      [5 -    (. William Ford Gibson, . 1948)  -, 1967  . . .],    - .



       .

 ,   The Economist, 4  2003

,        , ,  , -   .

 




 1

  250





 1

  


   ,    ,           .      ,   .

[6 -  (. Forever;  ABC, 22 , 20142015)  -     -   ,    1779          35      .      . . .],  1,  5, 2014

  , ,  ,    ,         .             ,   - , ,  ,     ,   .  , ,     :    ,           .  ,         . ,     ,        .          .

           [7 -            .        ,                  ,      (.:  .  ). . .],       ,      .         ,   .    ,       .         ,           ,      .   ,  3D-,        ,      Amazon Prime[8 - Amazon.com, Inc.           -  ().            Amazon. com    2013,           (FAA)     2015-,             . . .].

             ,                .     ,  , Facebook,   Angry Birds, -,    3050  ,       .       .






1.1.          [9 -          25%      . . .](:  )



        .    ,              .               .             ,               .  ,       .            iPhone[10 -     iPhone!    . Apple  iPhone    ,   Apple Inc. . .].

  1.2        600.                .  XX      ,        .   [11 -   (. Raymond Kurzweil, . 1948)     .       .    -           ,          . . .]      [12 -    (. John von Neumann, . Neumann Jnos Lajos, 19031957)  -   ,      ,  ,  ,  , ,     .                    . . .]       .             ,        .   ,          ,    ,      .

            .             ,            .          ,   ,         .      Intel Corporation  ,        1965[13 -    Cramming More Components on to Integrated Circuits     Electronics 19  1965. . .].






1.2.     (: Asgard Venture Capital)



       ,       .               .     (,      2000)            .        ,         .     ,   ,       ?






1.3.     50 (: Elektor Magazine)



                     Pony Express,     26 1861,          ,      ,    .

 ,   ,    .   ,  Western Union       ,    ,    1856  Western Union      ,  1890   .

     Western Union 1876  850   (41     ),              .

 1876 ,  - ,    [14 -  , 1870 , 1888    .  (. Alexander Graham Bell, 18471922)   1876,  2002            (. Antonio Meucci, 18081889),            1860               Western Union,      .        (. Gardiner Greene Hubbard, 18221897),    1877 Bell Telephone Company,       (. Thomas Sanders). . .]  Western Union   100 000  [15 -  2,5    2010. . .].      , ,            .

  Western Union  1881 1909,    Bell Telephone Company (1899   AT&T[16 - AT&T (.  American Telephone and Telegraph Company)  - . . .])     [17 - Gerald Sussman. Communication, Technology, and Politics in the Information Age (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 1997), 76. . .]. ,      , AT&T     ,         .              -.     , 1913    ,       ,     ,          .



                     .                  

               , 1913

 1913       [18 -   (. Lee De Forest, 18731961)   ,     180 ,         .    -       (1916).   ,    ,              . . .],         ,     ,        .      .  ,    -   ?          ?      ?      ,             .

      ,        .         Motorola, Blackberry  Nokia,       Apple  Samsung,     ,           -        Foxconn[19 - Joel Johnson, 1 Million Workers. 90 Million iPhones. 17 Suicides. Whos to Blame? Wired, 28 February 2011. . .],    iPhone.

          ,         .     -  [20 -  (. luddites)      XIX         .        ,     (. King Ned Ludd).  1779      - ,  ,  ,   ,           .    18111813,             17        . . .],   ,    ,     .      ,     , ,   ,       ,    .  ,               .

           3040,                    .           ,   ,         .






1.4.      (: Google)



                        .


  (18001945)

          軠                ,         (   ),     ( , ,   ..),    ,   ,  .        :     .   ,               .



 :            ,             .


    ,     ,      1760- .           ,       ,  -         XIX       -,    .        ,  1803  [21 -   (. Thomas Johnson) 1803              . . .]           .       , ,   ,      ,      .

  ,   ,    :    ,        ,     ,    .  18111817        ,          ,  .     -,      ,   [22 - ., ,        (. John Heathcoat, 17831861) 1816,        : http://apps.nationalarchives.gov.uk/a2a/records.aspx?cat=027-4302b&cid=0#0. . .].

    ,      .      ,      ,   .        ,       ,      .        ,     ,            .  :            ,             .

 2014  25  [23 -     1989,   -      (WorldWideWeb)   ,  TCP    .   1.1.    1991,  -   WWW  ,     ,         . . . .].        .       Pew Research  ,    2014 13%  (     !)  ,   , 19%       [24 - The Web at 25, Pew Research Center, February 2014, http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2014/02/PIP_25th-anniversary-of-the-Web_0227141.pdf. . .].    ,     30       !   ,     ,       .     22 ,   25%        .  ,        .

   -  2010      2%  .      Pew Research  ,        .

  ,  ,   ,     ,          ,   30%   .   , ,      ,    70%  ,  ,  .  ,          9091%,         80%[25 - Kamelia Angelova, Heres When Smartphones Will Saturate the US Market, Business Insider, 5 January 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-of-the-daysmartphones-us-saturation-2013-1. . .].

,         .                  100%,            .        ,  , , , ,      ,     .

 ,      ,    ,   [26 - Kirkpatrick Sale, Americas new Luddites, Le Monde diplomatique, February 1997, http://mondediplo.com/1997/02/20luddites. . .].      ,       ,            .      2014  [27 -  (. Transcendence) -  2014.                                     軠         . . .]     .           ,       ()  ,   ,    RIFT[28 - RIFT (.  . revolutionary independence from technology)    . . .],      ,  .     ,   ,  ,    ,   ,   :      [  ].      :         ,   ..

 ,     .     ?     ?     ?

   XIX             .              ,   .  ,          .              ,          .

 1812   ,        ,   [29 - Destruction of Stocking Frames, etc. Act of 1812. . .].           1813.    60,        .       ?               ?

    ,        .                   .                      .     ;         . ,     .  ,    .

      1913,       -,   ,         Ford .              , ,       .        :         ,           .           .         ,         . Ford      ,     . ʠ1925     260 .        16,5 [30 -     15007 034  (  250 000 Ford   ,  19081913). . .] Ford .     1970- ,        Volkswagen Beelte[31 -   껠       (19382003)    (21529 464 ). . .].

   Ford       :



      .          ,   ,  ,         .             ,     .

    

 ,      ,        .                   , ,    ,        .      :  ,  ,       . ,     ,          .



  

    ,       . 1750             35.               ,           .      ,  ,        ,      .

  XVIII        ,       .            ,          ,    .   1800 1950           50%   10%.   XX        ,        . ,      , ,               .

    ,   ,   ,      ,    ,       .       ,         -,      .

            ,           19001960.  1900     42%    ,  1970   5%.                  1.5.

   ,       ,   ,    .     ,        .         ,     ,  ,   ,   ,   ,      ,    .

       , ,   ,        .






1.5.          


 ,      (19451975)

       :  ,  [32 -     (. Charles Elwood Chuck Yeager, . 1923)    -, 1947              Bell -1,   ,     . . .],  ,  [33 -  - (. James Lovell, Jr.; . 1928)  ,  ,     (   Apollo 8  Apollo 13).      ,    .       ,    . . . .],  [34 -   (. David Scott, . 1932)  ,    Apollo 15   ,     ,   LRV. . . .],  ,  ,  [35 -   (. Leroy Gordon Cooper; 19272004)       .       Mercury  Gemini. . . .] (   ,        ).         ,    .           ,           .       ,       .            ,            .

  XX    -             .   26 1905            ,  [36 -         Ist die Tr?gheit eines K?rpers von seinem Energieinhalt abh?ngig? (        ?). . .]       ,    Š= m


. , ,  ,       ,      .

         1898   [37 -   (. Pierre Curie, 18591906)  -,     ,    ,      1903.  - (. Marie Curie, . Maria Sklodowska-Curie,    Maria Salomea Sklodowska, 18671934) - -,      (1903)   (1911).  1898      ,      ( . radius  )   ( . Polonia  )     . . .]     .        .   1914            . 1930-     ,            .      1942       .      ,    .

                - [38 -   (. Enrico Fermi, 19011954)   ,          ,     .    1938,     .   . . .] [39 -   (. , . Le Szilrd, 18981964)      , 1938  .     (1926,  ),    (1928),  (1929)  .  1939           .              ,         -239    ,  1945             .          . . .],         .    ,        -[40 -  - (. Jean Frdric Joliot-Curie,    Jean Frdric Joliot, 19001958)     ,      (1935,     -,    ),            .  1939                     .             ,    . . .],    ,               .       ,             .

 ,     ,  :



!

    ,      ,   ,               .    , -,            .            .

        ,              ,             .    ,       .

        , ,    ,     .    ,       ,       .         [41 - . :  . .,  . .,  . . -. .: , 1980.                       .        : http://www.bibliotekar.ru/albert-eynshteyn/20.htm. . .].


             ,    ,    1942  .           .

                -2 (. V-2,   Vergeltungswaffe-2   2).    3000   ,  . -2      ,      ,   .      1941   [42 -  , 1939,   Heinkel 178,              . . .]  - Messerschmitt Me.262.  Me.262       [43 -   Me.262      1944,      1930 ,        1433  ,          .     Me.262 (   Avia S-92)    ,  19441945     Me.262,  1951            -23  . . .],  -    .

              .                -,   -2   .        ,             . ,   ,      .     -2   -      [44 -        (. Wernher Magnus Maximilian Freiherr von Braun, 19121977) ,     - ,     ,    ,   1937,  .   1945    ,      .  -   . . .].       - -5,         .

  1946,        , -         [45 -    - (. Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill, 18741965)      , -  19401945 19511955;      (1953).   1946,   ,     ( , )   ,      . . .].                   .               ,              XX    .

  1957           58    -1. ,      ,      ,     ,   .  1955             ,     ,             .






1.6. -1     



 -1           .              .             - .    ,       ,   ,              .

         ,         ,   : ,    ,     [46 -   . .    (, ) 12  1962 (     . . : https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/Historic-Speeches/Multilingual-Rice-University-Speech/Multilingual-Rice-University-Speech-in-Russian.aspx). . . .].      ,      .              ,       ,    1960-     ,     .  ,          ,   , ,    ,       .       .         .     -10  -13        [47 -  -10            .   -13,           ,           .      .      ,         ,           ,     . . .],     .           400   ,      (  22       -11).

,   ,      [48 -   -17     1972. . .]     , :  .        4,4%      200      2015.                  ()  1%  .        7   . ,  ?  ,      ,  17,3    (   II  2014-)[49 -  2016    18,6  . . . .].



,          ,     ,          1490- .

 ,     NASAWatch.com,   

  -1            .         ,      ,   .             .    ,  .                .

     .   1950- 1960-      6-10%,        7%  .       ,  ,    XX         .        .    1967, 2000           56%.   ,      1970-     ,       .

          .        ,     .  [50 -       ,  1880            ,       .      .         (1956) Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc. (   AT&T  Western Electric).   2016,         , Nokia Bell Labs. .  . 1 .116. . .]        1954,   1958-    -1[51 - -1 (. Vanguard 1)   ,  17 1958.   1960-      (    ,   ),       .      ,       . . .],    .

            ,     1950- [52 -             XIX . . . .],                 .  ,               ,   .



   ,    

       400 000 .  ,  ,     20000 , - ,        .   ,   1960- 4,5%               .             .

    ( )[53 -         1958          (. The Lyndon B.Johnson Space Center, . JSC).       ,  ,   ,         .           . . .]    [54 -    ,   ,       ,       (. John F. Kennedy Space Center)    . . .]        1960-.            50:

?     (PTFE)   ;

?                      ,  ,  ,    ..;

?             ;

?      ,  ,      ;

?             ,    [55 -    (. Michael Ellis DeBakey, 19082008)   ,       . . .]              .

    ,    ,      ,  ,    ,  Memory Foam[56 -      .   ,            . . . .],   ,  ,  ,    ,   ,  (LED),          .

 , - ,     ,    , , ,         .


     (19752015)

        ,  .          ,       [57 -  1993    -    (. George Gilder, p. 1939)   .             (Ethernet)   (. Robert Metcalfe, p. 1946)   ,          (). . .]   [58 -   (. Mark Kryder, p. 1943)   -            Seagate  2005    Scientific American   :                       .         18  (.: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/kryders-law/). . .],      .  ,     ,       .     ,   ,           .               .



   1000 ,    80   -,  130  ,     !


    .    ,              . Ѡ1990 2005        ,    .  2015   ,   ,  - (IP),     10[59 -      ,  1  (//YB)= 1000 (10


)  (//ZB)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (, )= 10


  (//)= 10


  (//GB)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (/).      ,   ,    (   0/1) , ,   256(2


) . . .] .   2008 ,  2015              .    , 2019       .






1.7.    (  1 )   1980 2015



  ,      ,  :      򻠖    ,   ,     () .       ,  13 , 4 , 500 000  3,5 [60 -    . . .].      8500   ,    . ,    :    1000 ,    80   -[61 -      1 ,     ,    9  ,  2014. . .],  130  [62 -    Google Books    129 864 880     2010. . .],     !

      ()        ,    .   ,    ,     ,      ,  , ,    .

             ,        . -  1970- ,     1990-       ,                .         -   .       ,           .

   Xbox One  -   Electronic Entertainment Expo () 2013,  - Microsoft  ,     Xbox,     :



     Xbox One  []      ,    1999.  

 , - Microsoft,   

   [63 -   (. sharing economy)  ,       ,     . . .]       (   / ,   ),       .          .       ,       ,     ,           ,   .

     ,      PewDiePie,       .  2014    ,  PewDiePie  YouTube,             .        26,5 ,    PewDiePie          [64 -      (28.06.2016, 12:00   )   PewDiePie (https://www.youtube.com/user/PewDiePie)  45564 027 . . .].

  - TheRichest.com (https://www.therichest.com/),        ESPN,      Fox News    ,     CNN.              ,      ,      .        2004 2014,    2009-.            IP-. -,     ,    YouTube      ,  NetFlix, Hulu  Amazon Prime. -,                .






1.8.      (: Nielsen,   )



   ,       YouTube.       PewDiePie:              .

,      ,    PewDiePie     Fox News, ESPN  CNN,    :                ,       .     ,      PewDiePie     Fox News, ,       .   Y  Z     ,     .                    ,    .            .






1.9.            PewDiePie (: YouTube)



     PewDiePie      ,    Fox News.    ,    򻠖        ,         ,   ?

   YouTube   .        2005,    2007-    YouTube.  20092010 -     BuzzFeed,            .         YouTube 7 [65 -       https://www.youtube.com/user/MichellePhan  8613 476 . . .],            .          2011        Ipsy.com,     .  2013       LOral,       Michelle Phan.

 27-  YouTube,    ,  ,          Sears,        84 .   Code/Mobile,  2014    --,    , ,   ,     12 :



  60%   [ ]  .  70%    [66 - Michelle Phan: From YouTube Star to $84 Million Startup Founder, Re/code, 27 October 2014. . .].

 

    ,    ,    .  ,  ,    -    -  , 6  1991[67 -   1991 -    WWW.     -  1990-,        . . .].         (WWW),     -    -[68 - http://info.cern.ch/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html. . .].

     , 1994-,   Yahoo, Lycos,   The Economist,  - First Virtual, Law Info, Pizza Hut, The Simpsons Archive (  -), Whitehouse.gov, Web Crawler,   Wired  .  Pizza Hut      -     . 1994      ,   ,     -   2,6       2030%  [69 -    Statista,    - 2016  1,9    2020  4,06 (https://www.statista.com/topics/871/online-shopping/). . . .].      ,         .

, ,            .  2007 ,               ,   ,          .    2013       ,    ,      .  ,  Xiaomi Redmi, Meizu M2, Yu Yunique, Obi Worldphone  Google Android One,             100 .   2014   ,  ,        [70 - Kate Dreyer, Mobile Internet Usage Skyrockets in Past 4 Years to Overtake Desktop as Most Used Digital Platform, comScore, 13 April 2015. . . .].

      40     5000 ( 100 ).   Priceonomics, 18        60% , , , 2020  ,          ,   2025  [71 - Your Phone Loses Value Pretty Fast, Priceonomics, February 2012. . . .].   ,                 85%  .  :  2015 2020  -   ,           1994.     -         .

 50,       ,        .   ,      ,   ,  ,    .



    

-          .     , , Apple,       Microsoft, IBM  Oracle,        .

 ,    ,   NASDAQ,   1,3 ,        3  [72 -     2017     NASDAQ   Apple, Google (   2- 3-   Alphabet   Alphabet ), Amazon  Facebook.     168,7  . . . .].            HP, Baidu, NTT Communications, EMC, Texas Instruments, Yahoo, Salesforce.com, Cognizant, eBay  ..



 1.1.         




:   NASDAQ



     ,      ,       . , ,   Walmart   ,    - Alibaba,       Walmart  1,4 .

   FANG (,      Facebook, Amazon, Netflix  Google)    2015        440 [73 - Jeff Desjardins, The Market has no bite without FANG stocks, Visual Capitalist, 20 November 2015, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-market-has-no-bite-without-the-fang-stocks-chart/. . .].      FANG,   -500      S&P[74 - Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (. S&P)     McGraw-Hill,     .         ,           S&P 500. . .],     3,5 5,1%.  : 440 ,         S&P,      Apple.

 2013      ,    61500        .            450 000    ,        ,   ,       ,       .  :         .                .

 , ,   ,           . ,  Kodak      140 000 ,   Instagram,   Kodak  2000-, 2012 (    Facebook    715  )     13.  ,         .



 1.2.       (2013)




:     



Apple        ,    Foxconn, ,   ,  1,23 ,        Apple        . ,    Apple Inc.,        .   , ,   ,        ?        .



        .            ,   MGI,  21%,        .  :  15     10%.    ,  ,       ;    75%      .      .  4800     ,            2,6.

  :       ,   .    McKisney (MGI),  2011[75 - Internet matters: The Nets sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011. . .]

 ,   ?   2,6    ,  .       ,    IPO,         Facebook, Google  Apple.

      -   .      ,   -       49%[76 -   2014  -     4,7%  8,6% . . .].       ,    ,  ,    YouTube    ,        ,           .

                .  , 128 000  Microsoft  40000  ,   - .   ,    LinkedIn,  90%  Amazon      , , , ,  ,       66 [77 -       Business Insider  Linkedln. . .].

     - ,         . ,   ,               ,    (     ).         ,       XX  ,       .

          .      [78 -   (. Erik Brynjolfsson, . 1962)   ,      MIT Sloan,    MIT    ,       MIT,       .                 . . .],    MIT Sloan,     [79 -    (. Andrew Paul McAfee, . 1967)    MIT    ,        MIT Sloan,          . . .]     ,                            1015[80 - Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Richmond, VA Digital Frontier Press, 2011). . : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (London: W. W. Norton, 2014). . .].






1.10.             (: HBR)



       70,   ,             .  1940-        ,     2000- .        ,             .        ,       .

            ,     ,        80%  .    ,   200     ,       .          ,         ,          .

             2030,        ?




 2

  


      .

        ( , 1973)

2030    ,     (2000). ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  , ,     ,      .   ,            ,      HOMO AUGMENTUS,    .         .                .       ,        .

          ,    .               . ,               ,         ,     .

  ,  ,        ,        .      ,  .     ,         .                ,  .

  ,      .       ,   , ,  ,  ,  ,  , ,     .         ,   ,      .     - ,             ,       . ,     ,         -. ,            .   ,    -    ,       .      ,    .



   

      [81 -  (. The Matrix Trilogy)    -,     .     ,  1999.   ,         ,         . . .]    ""[82 -   "" (. Battlestar Galactica)         .     ""  1978     ABC       ,     ,  2003. . .].  ,    ,       ,             ,    200250. ,   ,    [83 -   (. Peter . Diamandis, . 1961)   , ,     (International Space University, ISU),         Space Adventures,         Planetary Resources,        ,       . . .],       .     [84 - Peter . Diamandis and Steven Kotler. Abundance: The Future is better than you Think (New York: Free Press, 2012). . .],    Ford   Foxconn      .   XIX , ,  1920-,   ,  - ,          ,       .          ,  .

          ,         .   Apple  Spotify    ,  Sony, Virgin  Tower Records,  1990-.     Amazon Kindle  Apple iBooks        ,    Borders, Dymocks  Angus & Robertson    .             Netflix, Hulu  YouTube,   Blockbuster  ,     .      Amazon  Alibaba,            .  ,      Best Buy,      Amazon.

      ,   ,    ,   ,       .              .         ,   :   ,     ,      ,     ,      .

   ,   -       .    ,    ,   ,      .  ,      .



   

          ,   . ,    1920,    .       ,   .   ,  90% ,      2000- , ,      [85 -  Zogby Analytics. .: Lisa Kiplinger, Millennials LOVE their smartphones: Deal with it, USA Today, 27 September 2014, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/09/27/millennials-love-smartphones-mobile-study/16192777/. . .], 80%    [86 - Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change, Pew Research Center, 24 February 2010, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-change/. . .] (  ,      ,  ,   ).              XX .           ,         . , ,              ? .

    ,    ,      2.0,       200   ,     .     ,     2050.

     .



 2.1.     






,    2020       .   200      ,       .  1750 80%      , 1900    30%,  2030 ,  , 8%.     ,     1950 2000  13 40%    60,3% 2030[87 - Felicity Brown, Percentage of Global Population living in cities, by continent, Guardian, 29  2009, http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/aug/18/percentage-population-living-cities. . .].






2.1.      



 1750 1850   ,     ,  1900          . , ,     . ,      : ,   ,    .

,    ,   ,    ,     .             .  , ,  ,  ,          .   , ,          .   ,                ,      .

              ,     .    (   ,    )   ,     ,     .    -  ,           ,   ,    .  ( )       ,    ,   ERMA[88 -     (Electronic Recording Machine, Accounting, ERMA)  1950 1955    (Stanford Research Institute, SRI),   ,      Bank of America.  1950      (      )    23000  ,      ERMA    14:00,     . . .],     .  1990-     -  ,               SAP (   ).         ,       .



 2.2.        






     ,    ,       ,          .                   ,        ,     .       ,        .








    ,   ,  ,    :  ,     .   ,        ,       30    ,             (  ).








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      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


Moven   2011          ,           . . .




2


Z (. GenerationZ)  ,              ,     . . .




3


 ,       . . .




4


PRISM (.  . Program for Robotics, Intelligents Sensing and Mechatronics)         ,      ,       (). . .




5


   (. William Ford Gibson, . 1948)  -, 1967  . . .




6


 (. Forever;  ABC, 22 , 20142015)  -     -   ,    1779          35      .      . . .




7


           .        ,                  ,      (.:  .  ). . .




8


Amazon.com, Inc.           -  ().            Amazon. com    2013,           (FAA)     2015-,             . . .




9


         25%      . . .




10


    iPhone!    . Apple  iPhone    ,   Apple Inc. . .




11


  (. Raymond Kurzweil, . 1948)     .       .    -           ,          . . .




12


   (. John von Neumann, . Neumann Jnos Lajos, 19031957)  -   ,      ,  ,  ,  , ,     .                    . . .




13


   Cramming More Components on to Integrated Circuits     Electronics 19  1965. . .




14


 , 1870 , 1888    .  (. Alexander Graham Bell, 18471922)   1876,  2002            (. Antonio Meucci, 18081889),            1860               Western Union,      .        (. Gardiner Greene Hubbard, 18221897),    1877 Bell Telephone Company,       (. Thomas Sanders). . .




15


 2,5    2010. . .




16


AT&T (.  American Telephone and Telegraph Company)  - . . .




17


Gerald Sussman. Communication, Technology, and Politics in the Information Age (Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, 1997), 76. . .




18


  (. Lee De Forest, 18731961)   ,     180 ,         .    -       (1916).   ,    ,              . . .




19


Joel Johnson, 1 Million Workers. 90 Million iPhones. 17 Suicides. Whos to Blame? Wired, 28 February 2011. . .




20


 (. luddites)      XIX         .        ,     (. King Ned Ludd).  1779      - ,  ,  ,   ,           .    18111813,             17        . . .




21


  (. Thomas Johnson) 1803              . . .




22


., ,        (. John Heathcoat, 17831861) 1816,        : http://apps.nationalarchives.gov.uk/a2a/records.aspx?cat=027-4302b&cid=0#0. . .




23


    1989,   -      (WorldWideWeb)   ,  TCP    .   1.1.    1991,  -   WWW  ,     ,         . . . .




24


The Web at 25, Pew Research Center, February 2014, http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2014/02/PIP_25th-anniversary-of-the-Web_0227141.pdf. . .




25


Kamelia Angelova, Heres When Smartphones Will Saturate the US Market, Business Insider, 5 January 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-of-the-daysmartphones-us-saturation-2013-1. . .




26


Kirkpatrick Sale, Americas new Luddites, Le Monde diplomatique, February 1997, http://mondediplo.com/1997/02/20luddites. . .




27


 (. Transcendence) -  2014.                                     軠         . . .




28


RIFT (.  . revolutionary independence from technology)    . . .




29


Destruction of Stocking Frames, etc. Act of 1812. . .




30


    15007 034  (  250 000 Ford   ,  19081913). . .




31


  껠       (19382003)    (21529 464 ). . .




32


    (. Charles Elwood Chuck Yeager, . 1923)    -, 1947              Bell -1,   ,     . . .




33


 - (. James Lovell, Jr.; . 1928)  ,  ,     (   Apollo 8  Apollo 13).      ,    .       ,    . . . .




34


  (. David Scott, . 1932)  ,    Apollo 15   ,     ,   LRV. . . .




35


  (. Leroy Gordon Cooper; 19272004)       .       Mercury  Gemini. . . .




36


        Ist die Tr?gheit eines K?rpers von seinem Energieinhalt abh?ngig? (        ?). . .




37


  (. Pierre Curie, 18591906)  -,     ,    ,      1903.  - (. Marie Curie, . Maria Sklodowska-Curie,    Maria Salomea Sklodowska, 18671934) - -,      (1903)   (1911).  1898      ,      ( . radius  )   ( . Polonia  )     . . .




38


  (. Enrico Fermi, 19011954)   ,          ,     .    1938,     .   . . .




39


  (. , . Le Szilrd, 18981964)      , 1938  .     (1926,  ),    (1928),  (1929)  .  1939           .              ,         -239    ,  1945             .          . . .




40


 - (. Jean Frdric Joliot-Curie,    Jean Frdric Joliot, 19001958)     ,      (1935,     -,    ),            .  1939                     .             ,    . . .




41


. :  . .,  . .,  . . -. .: , 1980.                       .        : http://www.bibliotekar.ru/albert-eynshteyn/20.htm. . .




42


 , 1939,   Heinkel 178,              . . .




43


  Me.262      1944,      1930 ,        1433  ,          .     Me.262 (   Avia S-92)    ,  19441945     Me.262,  1951            -23  . . .




44


       (. Wernher Magnus Maximilian Freiherr von Braun, 19121977) ,     - ,     ,    ,   1937,  .   1945    ,      .  -   . . .




45


   - (. Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill, 18741965)      , -  19401945 19511955;      (1953).   1946,   ,     ( , )   ,      . . .




46


  . .    (, ) 12  1962 (     . . : https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/Historic-Speeches/Multilingual-Rice-University-Speech/Multilingual-Rice-University-Speech-in-Russian.aspx). . . .




47


 -10            .   -13,           ,           .      .      ,         ,           ,     . . .




48


  -17     1972. . .




49


 2016    18,6  . . . .




50


      ,  1880            ,       .      .         (1956) Bell Telephone Laboratories, Inc. (   AT&T  Western Electric).   2016,         , Nokia Bell Labs. .  . 1 .116. . .




51


-1 (. Vanguard 1)   ,  17 1958.   1960-      (    ,   ),       .      ,       . . .




52


            XIX . . . .




53


        1958          (. The Lyndon B.Johnson Space Center, . JSC).       ,  ,   ,         .           . . .




54


   ,   ,       ,       (. John F. Kennedy Space Center)    . . .




55


   (. Michael Ellis DeBakey, 19082008)   ,       . . .




56


     .   ,            . . . .




57


 1993    -    (. George Gilder, p. 1939)   .             (Ethernet)   (. Robert Metcalfe, p. 1946)   ,          (). . .




58


  (. Mark Kryder, p. 1943)   -            Seagate  2005    Scientific American   :                       .         18  (.: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/kryders-law/). . .




59


     ,  1  (//YB)= 1000 (10


)  (//ZB)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (, )= 10


  (//)= 10


  (//GB)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (//)= 10


  (/).      ,   ,    (   0/1) , ,   256(2


) . . .




60


   . . .




61


     1 ,     ,    9  ,  2014. . .




62


   Google Books    129 864 880     2010. . .




63


  (. sharing economy)  ,       ,     . . .




64


     (28.06.2016, 12:00   )   PewDiePie (https://www.youtube.com/user/PewDiePie)  45564 027 . . .




65


      https://www.youtube.com/user/MichellePhan  8613 476 . . .




66


Michelle Phan: From YouTube Star to $84 Million Startup Founder, Re/code, 27 October 2014. . .




67


  1991 -    WWW.     -  1990-,        . . .




68


http://info.cern.ch/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html. . .




69


   Statista,    - 2016  1,9    2020  4,06 (https://www.statista.com/topics/871/online-shopping/). . . .




70


Kate Dreyer, Mobile Internet Usage Skyrockets in Past 4 Years to Overtake Desktop as Most Used Digital Platform, comScore, 13 April 2015. . . .




71


Your Phone Loses Value Pretty Fast, Priceonomics, February 2012. . . .




72


    2017     NASDAQ   Apple, Google (   2- 3-   Alphabet   Alphabet ), Amazon  Facebook.     168,7  . . . .




73


Jeff Desjardins, The Market has no bite without FANG stocks, Visual Capitalist, 20 November 2015, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-market-has-no-bite-without-the-fang-stocks-chart/. . .




74


Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (. S&P)     McGraw-Hill,     .         ,           S&P 500. . .




75


Internet matters: The Nets sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011. . .




76


  2014  -     4,7%  8,6% . . .




77


      Business Insider  Linkedln. . .




78


  (. Erik Brynjolfsson, . 1962)   ,      MIT Sloan,    MIT    ,       MIT,       .                 . . .




79


   (. Andrew Paul McAfee, . 1967)    MIT    ,        MIT Sloan,          . . .




80


Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Richmond, VA Digital Frontier Press, 2011). . : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (London: W. W. Norton, 2014). . .




81


 (. The Matrix Trilogy)    -,     .     ,  1999.   ,         ,         . . .




82


  "" (. Battlestar Galactica)         .     ""  1978     ABC       ,     ,  2003. . .




83


  (. Peter . Diamandis, . 1961)   , ,     (International Space University, ISU),         Space Adventures,         Planetary Resources,        ,       . . .




84


Peter . Diamandis and Steven Kotler. Abundance: The Future is better than you Think (New York: Free Press, 2012). . .




85


 Zogby Analytics. .: Lisa Kiplinger, Millennials LOVE their smartphones: Deal with it, USA Today, 27 September 2014, https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/09/27/millennials-love-smartphones-mobile-study/16192777/. . .




86


Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change, Pew Research Center, 24 February 2010, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-change/. . .




87


Felicity Brown, Percentage of Global Population living in cities, by continent, Guardian, 29  2009, http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/aug/18/percentage-population-living-cities. . .




88


    (Electronic Recording Machine, Accounting, ERMA)  1950 1955    (Stanford Research Institute, SRI),   ,      Bank of America.  1950      (      )    23000  ,      ERMA    14:00,     . . .




89


:   , , Corning. . .




90


       ,        . . . .




91


 3D-      2014. .: https://www.nasa.gov/content/open-for-business-3-d-printer-creates-first-object-in-space-on-international-space-station/. . . .




92


  : http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. . .




93


,         0,98/0,99.      2 ,  ,  . . .


