   .   XXI 
 

 


  ,     ,       ,     ,   ,  ,        .        1980- ,      1987 ,           ,      ,     .           2003 .      Wall Street Journal Best Seller list (4- )  New York Times, (8- )         1-   - Barnes&Nobel.





., . 

   .   XXI 



WILLAIM BONNER, ADDISON WIGGIN

Financial Reckoning Day



Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century



 2003 by William Bonner

    ,   , 2016




 


        :   ,   2009.,                0,25%,  ,         .       . ,  ,   :           .        ,       .

 ,             ,      .      ,  .  ,       ,    20012002.             .                      .

 .   .      ,         .      ,        ,        .          .

        ,      ,     . ,       ,        .







   ,    ,     ,   - ,       ,   .

    :   ,     . ,    .

     ,           ,       ,    .    ,    .    .       .

   ,     ,        ,      ,    ,          .

    ,   2530%         .     ,  , .          .   ,      .

        .     ,     :   ,       ?

       :  .

     ,     :     ?    , ?

    ,   ,    .  ,    .  ,     ,   .    ,    ,    .     .       . ,   ,       .

  - ,        .   ,      ,  ,   ,    .   1960-       .       , .    .    .        .      ?       ,            .

         ,      .    , ,  ,    ,        .

  ,   ,  .    ,       .    ,       ,        .    ,       .     ,        .  ,         , ,   ,      .

       .    .

,   3040      ,    .        .        .              .

      ,         ,            .    ,   ,      .  ,       ,          .

   ,  ,     ,   ,      .

   ,     ,                 1990-       .       ,             .

    ,   ,    ,            .    ,      ,      ,   .

 , ,    .    .  ,       25%  ,       ,       .     ,   - ,      .

       (Adventure Capitalist)    ,    ,         ,      .

,   ,  ,          ,        .                 .   ,       ,   ,          ,          XXI.   .            .

, , ,      .  ,   ,   ,      .



 







   ,         .    ,         .    -,    ,  ,    .         ,      ;              .         ,    ,      .

     ,      www.dailyreckoning.com     ,    .

,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,   ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,           ,         .







 ,          XX .!     .    .    ,       ,    .      ,       .      .        ,     ,   ,       , ,       .     ,   -  ,  ,         .

,     ,       !     ,  ,    ,   .   ,      .   ,    ;    ,        .  ,    .

      .     ,       .          .           .

    ,  ,     ,     .      ,     .    ,  ,         ,   .         ,        .  ,       .

     ,   ,      ,           .    ,    .      .     ,      ,         ,     .         ,          .

   ?

 ,     .

    ?

   ,    ,   .

      .    ,   ,    .  ,  ,       ,          .

 ,         ,      ,       ,     .              .         .

,   ,   ,     ,  ,     .  , ,        ,      ,       .  , ,    ,  ,    .    ,                .    .         .

         ,     .    ,      .

              .  ,   ,     .       ,          .   ,     .        .           ,    ,      .

  ,       ,     .     ,     ,   .      :           ,    ,       .                  .

    ,   .   ,        .     ,     .          . ,  ,    ,     ,    .        ,       ,  ,  .        ,     .             ,     ,           .

                  ,    ,       .

          .

,   1990-  ,            ,      ,           .   ,  ,     ,     ,    ,     ,             .

   ,         ,    .   ?   . , , ?

,  2003.,     ,        .       .  ,      Newsweek, ,                 .

      .    2002.         -, . .  ,   ,    .     ,        ;         -,       ,             ,   .

      ?     ,      :     ,        .

       ,    .      ,     .  ,    ,    ,   .   ,            ,         ,    .   ,       ,   .         ,   .

        .         ,         .        ;         . , , ,      ,       .

    ,       .     ,  .     ,       .      ?

,                .        ,     (. . 9),  ,        .

,               ,     www.dailyreckoning.com      .




I. [1 -  .   (George Gilder)     -  1990- .; gilder (.) . . .]


     ,   ,    ,   .     ,       .    ,        .    -   ,    ;    ,   .

. . 


-   1990-          47 .  Global Crossing (GC)   .          ,           ,     :   ,         .         ,    ,    ,       ,         ,    .     :      .

,           .    ,   ,    -  ,      .  - ,      ,    ,    ?   ,      ,   ,   ,  .  ,        .

       ,       ,   ,      . , ,  ,   .      ,         ,       .

    ,  , ,      .  XX      .   ,  ,   ,   .     ,   ,   .      ,   ,   .    . ,         .   20          .      ,       .

      - (A Random Walk Down Wall Street)      ,       .  ,  ,       .       .   ,      ,       .      ,         .

   ,     ,    .         ;     ,    .        ;    .         ,     ,        .     ,  .  ,    ,    ,     ,   .

   1990-     .          .     ,  ,              .    :         ,  ,   ,        . ,      ,    ,     ,              .  ,        ,     ,      ,   ,     .  ,   -  .

  XXI.           .     .    .    ,       .              1,5 . .      .        ,      .

      .      .    XX .    .  ,           .  ,        ,   .    ,       - .        , , ,      .

         ,    2002.   -.,      -.     ,        New York Times,      .

  ,             ,       ,    .       .    :  . ,     ,  .   ,   .   ,          .  ,   ,   ,        ,   .

 ,          .     .        ,   .          ,     .        .

      2001. Nasdaq   73%,   Dow   32%.    .  ,      ,   ,       . ,    ,     ,       .             .

, ,      .           , ,   ,     .        . -    ,       , ,  ,         .     ,    ,      ,     .   , , ,     ,       .  ,     ,  - ,     ,   ,      .  , ,         ,        .

  ,    XX    ,   ,   ,       , -  .   .         ,        .     .  ,    ,  ,             ,    .        .




  


     ,      ,    ,                .     ,    1990-     .

    :            .       .    1877.   Bell Telephone Company,     .     ,        .   3        30.

  ,      ,            ,       .  , ,      Bell,    .     ,           .

      -  -:     ,     .       .     .        ,            . Bell Telephone         .  Amazon.com, Globe.com, Webvan.com    -         ,       .

,   ,   :        18 ,       .        -:      , ,  ,      - , ,  .       .      ,      ,      ().    , ,   ,     , ,      .

        ,      .      , ,   .     ,       ,   ,       .     ,   ,    ,       (Wealth and Poverty)    (Spirit of Enterprise).  ,   ,   ,    .    (Microcosm)          ,   - .     ,       .

    Forbes ASAP      ,    .    .   ,     .          ,    ,   ,     ,       .           ,       .

     :    [2 - . : Fred Barbash, Market Guru Put Acolytes on Wild Ride, Washington Post (March 5, 2000): H01.].   .    ,      .    ,      ;            .




  


  軠        ,      .   ,  , ,    ,       .  ,   :  Global Crossing!

   ,     .              .   Global Crossing        .      ,      (Telecosm),      ,     ,   ,    ,   .       ,    .      ,  Global Crossing           ,       .     ,     ,      .   ,    2001.    Global Crossing,     ,      [3 - Tom Brokaw, Examination of How and why big CEOs have made millions while investors lost everything, NBC News transcript (July 28, 2002).].

, ,        .




  


       ,      Drexel Burnham.      ,   1997.   AT&T   .        14 ,     .

     -  Global Crossing       !   ,     2,7 .    ( )      .   1998.         9,50 .  .       60 .,       54 .        4,7 .        ,          ,  Deutsche Telekom  AT&T.

  ,   2001., Global Crossing        ,    3,35 .,      ,      .    2 .           , Exodus Communications,         .      Global Crossing   1,24 .   9  (38 ),      (13,30 .),     ,    .           52,9 .  ,    ,  .     Global Crossing  1998.,        (  2001.),       5000 .      102 000 .     Global Crossing  1998.,    400 . .     5 .    1 .   ,   40%  .     Global Crossing  1998.,       STM-1.    IP   ,   450%  ,  20%-   Exodus Communication (   ,    -,  ,      ),        ,   .     Global Crossing  1998.,           .      [4 - George Gilder and Bret Swanson, Metcalfs Exaflood, Shalom Equity Fund Newsletter (June 26, 2001). .: http://www.imakenews.com/ shalomequityfund/e_article000030389.cfm.].






.1.1.    . Global Crossing     .    ,    .   2002. Global Crossing   .              700 .       :   ,     ,   Global Crossing,     .



    Global Crossing  1998.,    ,    98%   (.1.1  . 9).

,      ,  .  Global Crossing            ,      .      ,      :      ,      .     ,              .

 ,   2001.         ,          Global Crossing   .       Global Crossing   18   .   ,    ,   67   .      177% ,  ,   -  -   .

    ,    ,      .       ,      .      , ,   ,        10% .     , Global Crossing    500 .     , ..      ,    .

,  28  2002. Global Crossing   ,      4 .

,   -  : , 9  2002.  Fortune   ,     ,     .

 ? ,   ,  ,   ?      2,7 .,  , ,       .          ,     20 .         ,        7,6 . (     14 .),            .

      20 .?         ,   -          .  1998  2002.   -   13 .       .

   .  ,    Salomon Brothers,  .     ,   .      ,     .   .

     .     - ,   ,        ,   .       ,      .       ,     .     , ,    Global Crossing       54 .

    .   ,  Global Crossing   ,        735 .  15,8 .       .  ,      .   ,   : 2000  2002.          600 .,       Global Crossing    ,     .   2002.   10   12 .  .          2   ,  Forbes       .

   ,   ,       .            ,       .      , ,    ,   .




 


 ,  Forbes ASAP         ,       .         ,    Siebel Systems Inc.,          (Virtual Selling),     ,  eBay.    ,    ,   ,   .      ,         .

  ,         .     ,       -      ,  .  ,  , ,    ,    ,   ,              .

  1990-         .   ,        ,         .  ,              ,   ,          (IPO).

    ,        :   - ,       ,  .            .      ,     IPO:    [] :      ?           I-P-O.   ,        ,    .           ,     ,  IPO   .      .        [5 -              (Laying Down the Law // Forbes ASAP (February 21, 2000). .: http://www.forbes.com/asap/2000/0221/096.html).].

   ? [ ]       ,  ,    . []      .     ,    .    [6 - Ibid.].

    .      ,  ,       .




 


 2000.         :     [7 - Bill Bonner, The Digital Man, Daily Reckoning (August 15, 2000). .: http://www.dailyreckoning.com.].  ,  ,          ,            ,          .      Deutsche Bank  ,   :   ,    .            ,   ,    ,    .

        ,     (  )        . ,      , , ,       .         , , ,    ,   ,     .

, ?       ,  ,    ,   ,            (digital man):     ,  ,          .        ,  ,          [8 - Ibid.].

        ,       2000 .  ,   ,  2000 ,   .     .  ,   00       ,           ,  .        (     )    . , ,  :      ,   --!     .

          2000 .  ,   New Yorker  , -,   , ,   ,     ,   , ,      [9 - David Denby, The Quarter of Living Dangerously: How Greed Becomes a Way of Life, New Yorker (April 24, 2000/May 1, 2000).].

         -  .      ,      .   -           -     !    ,  .    .    . , ,   ,    ;   ,    .   ,  .

-  ,        ,   .               .   ,      ,    .                .     Forbes ASAP,           :      ,       ,       ,       ,             ,    ,      ,   ,   ,   .            .

         ?  ,    .     . ,      ,  ,       .   ,   ,                  .  ,  ,         .            -     ,         .

    ,       .     sans culotte ( ),    ,       ,     ,     .      ,   ,      ,     14  ,           .  ,              : , ,   .

  ,    ,       ,     .   ,     , homo supersapiens ( )      ,        .         黠   ,   ,              ,     .          , , ,    ,   : ,   [10 - Ibid.] (           ).

         ,   .

     1990-   ,     .  ,   ,      ,     :    ,      .       ,    ,   ,           ?         .    ,     ?

 ,   ,         1917.         1999.,   :   . ,    ,    ,         .   .    ,    ,    ,       .   ,    .

  ,    ,          .    Global Crossing    60 .  ?        .          ,   .        Amazon.com  200 .  ,       ?




 


      ,      .

  ,     2000.    .       .         ,   ,       .     ,    .     ,  .          :        ,     .    24       ,  .  ,     .

        ,  MicroStrategy. , ,            , ,  .             .

     ,  ,     .  ,       [11 - Mark Leibovich, Microstrategys CEO Sped to the Brink, Washington Post (January 6, 2002): A01.];         .            (Intelligence).

 ,         ,   ,    ,  .           ,      .    ?        .     ,  ,  ,     .

       : ,     ,   ,     ,   [12 - Larissa MacFarquar, A Beltway Billionaire and His Big Ideas, New Yorker (April 3, 2000): 34.],       New Yorker.          ,     .   , ,  MacDonalds ,   ( )           -.

    ,   :       .

       ,  MicroStrategy.      11  1998.       333 .      1,3 .,       4,5 .,        13,6 .    MicroStrategy     200 .    1999. 12,6 .  ,   DuPont.       ,    Oracle  . 333 .   MicroStrategy     ,     .

     ,    www.dailyreckoning.com,  MicroStrategy,       ,       .       ,      -     .       ,   20  2000.  ,           .

  20  2000.        ,       .            ,  MicroStrategy       .    12,6 .  1999.        34  40 .      .            :        6,1 .

     .       ,     .   11 .    .     .   ,    ,       Yahoo/MicroStrategy   ,     .

 20  2000.     ,        .   :  Fortune             13 .

     ,   .   ,   2001.   ,      .   Washington Post,       [13 - . . 10.].      .       ,    3,36 .       ,  .

   ?     廠  .

        .   2001.    ,      - . , ,   ,    .       ,    ,          ,      .     ?   ,        MicroStrategy   1999.  110 .  ,  ,         .   ,      .

        ,    ,   ,    .         .       ,  -    .       .   ,         .

  ,       ,      . ,             ,    .   2001.      ,          .   -    .                 .   .  ,     ,  ,       , -   ,     .




 


 2000.        .    ,        .      ,         Amazon.com,           63 550  .

         .       5 .,  78,68 .    (        ).     ,      ,           .   ?       ,     Barnes&Nobles?  ,  ,      -?   2000.        .   -   .

        ,    ,       .   Amazon,   -,     .   .  ,   McKinsey&Company ,      -          .      .

     Amazon.com    -  .   ,     .        .      ,    .        ,  Amazon.com.        -.                      (The Cluetrain Manifesto)                     ,  ,           ,            

Amazon.com    .

     ,  ,   ,    -  ,    .      ,          ,  Amazon.com   .

    ,     2000.  Amazon   574 .,        308 .,     198 .  ,           ,       .   1 .     ,       2 . ,      1 .   25,6 .  .

  ,          ,          .   ?   -      -.   軠          .          . ,   ,  ,      , -  .    -  ,           (Customer Lifetime Value).

,   -  :     .      ( , ,  ),   .    ,               .     Amazon   15 .      ?

  2000.  ,   Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette,   1905 .   ,    ,       ( ,   Amazon     39%, ..      ),  ,        2000 . ?  .   .   ,        140 .   Amazon.com.  ,      Leeward Investments (  ),     ,        26 .      ,     440 .,      1,25 .[14 - Bill Bonner, A River Runs Through it, Daily Reckoning (June 7, 2000). .: http://www. dailyreckoning.com.]




 


 Amazon.com     ,           ,           .       Playboy,    [15 - Playboy Interview: Jeff Bezos, Playboy, vol. 47, no. 2 (February 1, 2000): 59.].     ,     .   ,      ,         .                .     ?    ?            ,       ?         ?

  35,    2001.  Time    .   ,  Time  :           ,    ,  ,         ,        ,  ,    ,   ,  Time,   ,    , ,       . , .  .

   ----      .  ?  IV  2000.  Amazon  545 .,  222 . ,       .       3 .   Time            ,       ,    .

 ,  Time.     ,    ,    [16 - Joshua Cooper Ramo, Jeffrey Preston Bezos; 1999 Person of the Year. The Fast-Moving Internet Economy has a Jungle of Competitors and Heres is the King, Time (December 27, 1999):50.].

,     ----,   . ,        .       23 ,    ,          50%      .  ,   2010.       1,3 .  , ,    100 .            !

  ,        Amazon.com,    . ,            14 .    2,1 .   .     .      1 . .    ?    14 .      1 .?     ?         .         .

   ,   .   2001.  ,   , ,    Amazon.com    .

, ,   .  2001.    New York Times              [17 - Gretchen Morgenson, A Year Underachievers Everywhere Can Be Proud Of, New York Times, sec. 3 (December 31, 2000):I.].      ,      ,  Time    ,      .

  2000.   Amazon   113 (  1999.)  7  9 .  .     -  ,  ,   .    .




  Cisco


  ,    ,   ,      Cisco.           .   ,   Nasdaq   ,  ,  Cisco,  , ,   ,         3050%.




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=54969598)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


 .   (George Gilder)     -  1990- .; gilder (.) . . .




2


. : Fred Barbash, Market Guru Put Acolytes on Wild Ride, Washington Post (March 5, 2000): H01.




3


Tom Brokaw, Examination of How and why big CEOs have made millions while investors lost everything, NBC News transcript (July 28, 2002).




4


George Gilder and Bret Swanson, Metcalfs Exaflood, Shalom Equity Fund Newsletter (June 26, 2001). .: http://www.imakenews.com/ shalomequityfund/e_article000030389.cfm.




5


             (Laying Down the Law // Forbes ASAP (February 21, 2000). .: http://www.forbes.com/asap/2000/0221/096.html).




6


Ibid.




7


Bill Bonner, The Digital Man, Daily Reckoning (August 15, 2000). .: http://www.dailyreckoning.com.




8


Ibid.




9


David Denby, The Quarter of Living Dangerously: How Greed Becomes a Way of Life, New Yorker (April 24, 2000/May 1, 2000).




10


Ibid.




11


Mark Leibovich, Microstrategys CEO Sped to the Brink, Washington Post (January 6, 2002): A01.




12


Larissa MacFarquar, A Beltway Billionaire and His Big Ideas, New Yorker (April 3, 2000): 34.




13


. . 10.




14


Bill Bonner, A River Runs Through it, Daily Reckoning (June 7, 2000). .: http://www. dailyreckoning.com.




15


Playboy Interview: Jeff Bezos, Playboy, vol. 47, no. 2 (February 1, 2000): 59.




16


Joshua Cooper Ramo, Jeffrey Preston Bezos; 1999 Person of the Year. The Fast-Moving Internet Economy has a Jungle of Competitors and Heres is the King, Time (December 27, 1999):50.




17


Gretchen Morgenson, A Year Underachievers Everywhere Can Be Proud Of, New York Times, sec. 3 (December 31, 2000):I.


