  .    
 


          .        ,    ,    ,   ,       ,        (   ,    ,  ,  ,   ),    ,       ,   .               .  ,           ,     .     ,              .

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   , 2007





 


               ,     .            ,     ,   , ,    , ,    .    , - ,         .       . ,    :     !

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        ,      ,   , .              .        ,    ,    ,   .    ,  ,  (, ,   ),       ,     .       ,    ,              .

          ,     .  ,    ,      ,            ,    .           ,           ,        ,      .

,   ,   ,          (,    ,    , ,    ,  ..).       -    ,             .      :    ,    ,    ,      .   ,         .             , ,  .

       ,  ,        ,         ,      .     ,     ,   ,   .        ,    ,        .          :     ,   ,        ,    ,     .

       ,       ,             ,   ..,         .       .    ,   ,          ,         .          ,    .

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   .   ,             ,    ,         .      ,      .    ,  ,            .

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 1

   :    



              [1 -    , , ,        ,  , , , , , ,        .]          .           ,  ,      ,     .   1960- .   , ,   .             ,   (cohabitation)[2 -                      .         ;   ,   ;     ,  ,  ,       ()    ;       -,     .       ,                .]    ,    ,   ,      ,  .

                  .           -, ,    .      ,                  .        ,            .




1.1.     


,            ,                .

     . 5060- . XX.       .       (     23 ,    25),[3 -  ,           .           .  XVIXVIII.     28 ,     25.    .      12 .   .        ,        ,   .]          . ,    ,     .       .  ,   19321941., ,          ,  18,4 ,    20,6 .  ,     ,     17,0  18,1 .[4 - Leridon H. Les nouveaux modes de planification de la famille // European Populations: Unity and Diversity. European Population Conference, plenary lectures. 1999. . 54.]      , , :  , ,  22,8   1970.  29,7  1999.; , ,  22,9  27,7.                      1015 ,      .

             .   19982000. ,       10% ,          ,      .        20%,      40%.   , ,    2534           .   ,     ,    .             ,    ,             .[5 - Kiernan K. Cohabitation and divorce across nations and generations. Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion. London School of Economics. Paper 65. March 2003 // http://www.sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper65.pdf.]

 .   ,          ,   ,   .      .  60- .  ,     ,    ,    .        ,     ,      .        .

  ,   ,   19441948.           71,6%   78,8% .   19691973.       32,0  42,4%.                    (44,6%),     (38,0%).[6 - Guibert-Lantoine C., Leridon H. La contraception en France: un bilan apres 30 ans de liberalization // Population. Vol. 53, 4. P. 807.]

     1975  1979.       ,   ,   134. 1976.  183. 1983.,      ( 1997. 164.). ,            ,   : 1976. 250.  (34,8    100 ), 1983261. (34,9), 1993225. (31,6).[7 - Blayo Ch. Levolution du recours a lavortement en France depuis 1976 // Population. Vol. 50, 3. P. 780 // http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion.]      (   100 )       25  27  ,        ( :      2003.  126).

 .     .           ,        .  1982.   ,   ,      27 ,    28 .  2000.       , , , 29  30 .

              .       (  ,      )             2,08.   ,          ,      .          2004.      1,99,    1,90,    1,80 (. 1.1).      ( 1,4)          ,      ,   ,        ,      ( 1,2  1,3).



 1.1.         19602005.




   .

:  Weekly // http://www.demoscope.ru; Population in Europe 2005: first results. Eurostat. 2006. P. 5



   ,   ,             ,      .        ,     ,       40%.  ,    1960- .,                   52% ,      43%.[8 - Le Goff J.-M. Cohabiting unions in France and West Germany: Transitions to first birth and first marriage // Demographic Research. Vol. 7, article 18. P. 599.]

   .                   (. 1.2).           1960- . ( . )  ,    1970- .    .            .  12 ,    13 ; , ,  8  10 .         12          , ,     2006.,   79     86   .



 1.2.            19602006.




*   2006 World Population Data Sheet. P. 9 // http://www.prb.ru.



       :  , ,  21,9 %  1965.  3,9 %  2005.            5 %.     2006.,           ,       :  3   1000 .




1.2.  : - 


  .    ,      (. 1.3),       .

  1960- .             ,      .     ,    ,     ,       .

  ,          ,   .    ; ,   ,    ,       ,    .                 .            1960- .,     .

              .    ,  ,  ,     , -68,        ,  .      ,   ,  ,      .  ,  ,       , - -    .



 1.3.              .




: Lesthaeghe R., Neels K. From the First to the Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation of the Spatial Continuity of Demographic Innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland. Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium // www.vub.ac.be.



            .      ,  ,    :  ,  ,  ,      ,  (   ),        .         ,   .

    ,    ;    (welfare state),       .      , ,  .   ,        ,    ,    .

 , ,     .        .

        .              ,        .                  ,         .                    .             ,  18701871  19141918.     .       .

,                .       .  ( )   , ,      .     ,    ,  :           ,             .

 ,     ,     ,[9 -          21,6 %,        28,7 %,    35,2 %,   33,4 %. .  . .     ( ). .: , 1941. . 214.]    ,           .     ,              .[10 -   . . ,    1914.   :  1900. 38,9 ,  193039,5.;  , , 56,4  72,0 .  . . 414415.]            .  1920.        (  ) ,     (  ,        ).[11 -  . .,  . .      //      / . . . . . .: , 1989. . 112113.]         ,         ,   1914.    .[12 - Boverat F. Comment nous vaincrons la denatalite. P., 1939. P. 41. .  .:   . 115.]

                  .         ,         .        ,    ,     ,   .          .

       .  ,       ,     , ,             .[13 -        Poliakov L. Harvest of Hate: The Nazi Program for the Destruction of the Jews of Europe. N. Y., 1954;  Woman in Third Reich,        // http://www.ushmm.org;  .     !,       // http://pms.orthodoxy.ru   .]

             ,             70- . XX.        ,       ,   ,           (        )  .

              ,   :    1929.,       1934.,     1935.                 ,     .          6 -.         .   ,    (     1930.      Castii connubii),      .[14 -  . .     :      (   Eugenics and the Welfare State: Sterilization Policy in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Ed. by Gunnar Broberg and Nils Roll-Hansen. East Lansing: Michigan State U. Pr., 1996.) //     . 2000. 1.]

     -, ,     ,    ,     . , ,      ,         .   (    ) ,                   .  ,           ,  ,       ,     .[15 -  . . . .; Drouard A. A propos de leugenisme scandinave. Bilan les recherches et travaux recent // Population. 1998. 3. P. 633642.]  ,     ,    -   ,  :  1942.        ,      .

  .  ,  -,        .       ,           .

           .      ,     ,  .     ,    ,          ,    .

         ,      ,    ,     .           ,        ,        .     -              .

                        .                ,      -            .      ,   .         1949.,    2351 .        15001900  .       -    .

 1960-: ,   .        60- .,        .  ,   ,      60- .  ,       ,      1968. .

       .        .

3  1968. ,   ,    ,    ,    ,   .    .

         .  ,          ,         , , , ,      ,  , . 10   CRS (    )      ,      ,  ,   .     ,     .

        ;    .  ,   ,  9 .    ,       .          (18901970),          ,     ,       .          ,     . 23  30  1968.               .  ,    ,  .

            ,     .  -,      ,    .            ,  ,       ,    .           .  1967.        ,      ,     ,        .           ,   ,      ,       .      -  ,      ,       ,    ,   ,   5   -, 21     14  1968     .[16 - Cohn-Bendit D., Cohn-Bendit G. Obsolete Communism: The Left Wing Alternative // http://ledpup.dyns.net/RedThread/Webpages/Texts/Cohn-Bendit/TheStudentRevolt.html.]

      .      ,       .      .     ,       ,     .           ,           ,     ,       .      .[17 -  .                    // http://tw2000.chat.ru/b0502.htm.]

   1968.     .    ,        .        -  ,         .              ,   ,   .      .       :                ,     .  -     ,   .    ,    ,       . -    .

    .         ,       ,        .   1968.       ,          ,  ,    ,  , ,     ,     ,  .

    1960- .        .           (. 1.4),       ;      ,    70- .    .



 1.4.       19502006.




: Shkolnikov V., Mesle F., Vallin J. La crise sanitaire en Russie // Population. 1995. 45. Pp. 967968; World Population Data Sheet 2006. P. 9



   .    60- .  -.     ,     .     , ,    ,      ,   ,        .     .

, ,    . 28  1967.     ,      .     -   :          ,   ,        ,     21        .       1974.:  ,   18            .  ,              .[18 - Guibert-Lantoine C., Leridon H. La contraception en France: un bilan apres 30 ans de libralization // Population vol. 53, 4. P. 785812.]  1975.   ,    ,        ,   1979.          12 .

             . ,  ,      1967.,     1973.,    1974.,    1976.[19 -  . .,  . . . . . 114.]  1999.     ,     1935  1975.   .  1700    175   (19 200 ) .   2003.    20%   .[20 - Suede: un page tourn sur les strilisations forces // Libration, 16 juillet 2003;      //  .   . 17  2003. // http://www.lpu.ru/news]

    :     1960- .        .  ,   ,   .

    1960- .   ,         ,        .  1967.      ,              ,      ,     .[21 -  .  . .: , 1993. . 13.       1967.   (Guy Debord)       ,    ,       1968.     1994.] ,     ,   :  ,  ,  ,   ,  ,  .[22 -  .   / . .;  . . . . .: , 2002;  .  . .: -, 2000; Touraine A. La societe postindustriele. ., 1969; Bell D. The coming of postindustrial society. N. Y., 1973.]             modernity,[23 -    modernity      ,      ,   ,    ,   ,     .   ,     modernity       (postmodernity).]  ,     .

           ,      ,     .     ,          (,   , )   .            ,    .        ,         (            :        ,     ).     ,            , ,     .

       ?        XX   ,     - .         .  5060- .          , ,         1960- .,       .

  ,   ,       ? ?            . ?        (   )      .  ?  ?!

                  ,      ,    , , , .        , ,          .   ,         .

      ,     .     .      .       , ,      .[24 -  .           . .     //     . 2001. . IV, 2. . 181182.]   , , ,  ?            .

        .     ,         .        ,                ,   ,   ,   ,   ,   ,      .          (welfare state), , ,         .           ,                     .

  ,      ,          .  ,  ,  .   . , , ,    ,         .[25 - Rothstein . The Universal Welfare State as a Social Dilemma // Rationality and Society. 2001. Vol. 13, issue 2. Pp. 213233; Erik Moberg's comment // http://www.mobergpublications.se/positions/comment4.htm.]      ,          ;      . -.[26 - Esping-Andersen G. The three worlds of welfare capitalism. Cambridge, 1990.]   ,       ,       ,    :          ,   .

   ,   , , ,   , ,    - . . . [27 -  . .          . .: - , 2003. . 109.]       ,         :

  -       ;

         ;

     ;

        (        );

       ;

    .

  ,   1993.       (public)     (36,4%  ).        ,     XXI.              .

   ,      ,    ,  .          (     )        .    , ,        (    ),       ,   .                  (. 1.5).

      .        ,      .  (18791963).  ,  ,      ,          ,        .             .            , ,    (   )       .   ,                   ,   .



 1.5.          




: OECD (2006), Social Expenditure Database.



     ,             .      , ,  1990- .                ,     .            .      ;             .        ,      .  ,                  ( )     .

     (public sector)    (  15 )   22,9%   1985.  26,9%  1993.,      (23,9%  2003.).         -  ,   . . ,        , ,      ,   ,  .[28 - Ryan P. Review of On Worlds of Welfare: Institutions and their Effects in eleven Welfare States, by J. M. Wildeboer Schut, J. C. Vrooman and P. T. de Beer (Social and Cultural Planning Office, the Hague, Netherlands; 2001) and Changing Labour Markets, Welfare Policies and Citizenship, edited by Jorgen Goul Andersen and Per H. Jensen (Policy Press, Bristol, UK; 2002) // http://www.kcl.ac.uk/depsta/pse/mancen/staff/ryan/rew03WK.pdf.]

,             .                ( ,   ,    ..), ,     ,        .

            ,       ,      ,   (  , )   .        :    ,           ,         .

    :

          (   ..);

 ( ,  )  (   )          ;

 ,   :    , ,   ..;

  ,     ;

   ,    ;

   (  ,  ,  ..).

              .                  .     :               .               .

              (    ),         (  ,     ).         , , ,  -   .       - .   -        ,      ,           ,     .

          , ,    -  ,       .  ,       ,  , .    ,  ,        .      .

 ,         ,    .   ,     ,    .     .            ,   . .         .       .          .

                   .

         .   1970- .  ,     ,       ,   ,    .

, ,        -    ,          ,   .           . ,   (allocations familiales)   ,     ,       .     2004.   ,     ,  113      144     .[29 - Le regime francais de securite sociale // http://www.cleiss.fr/docs/regimes/ regime_france3.html.]  ,    , , ,     ,  .    ,  , :       ; ,                 ;        ;   ,   (707   177     );  ,   ,        .

 ,   ,    ,       ,     ,        .           (         ї).           ,            : -  -.      ,          ,   ,    ,     ,     .        ,  ,           ,    ,     .

       :  1950- .     ,      14 .               ,  ,      ,   ,     .

    ,   ,     ,        (      ).[30 - Seeleib-Kaiser M. Germany: still a conservative welfare state? // http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/Docs/MSeeleib04.pdf.]

   . 6         ,          .  1954.      .   ,       .    ,       ,   :        ,          .         ,         ,[31 - Bahle Th. Family Policy in Germany: Towards a Macro-sociological Frame for Analysis.]             .

   ,           ,           -.               .   (    )       :                       ,             .[32 - A concerted strategy for modernizing social protection  COM (99) 347 final of 14.7.99. P. 10.  : Family Benefits and Family Policies in Europe / Social security and social integration European Commission Directorate-General for Employment and Social Affairs Unit E. 2Manuscript completed in June 2002.]

               .   ,          ,          (. 1.6).      ,          1990- .   ,      ,   .   ,      6 ,         ,     , , .



 1.6.       1564        19892003., %




: OECD Database; Eurostat, Statistics in focus, Population and social conditions, 13/2006. EU Labour Force Survey  Principal results 2005 // http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007244.shtml.



                .  , ,  1960- .      ,  ,       . ,            ,  ,      .   1970- .      ,         ,   1978.  .

   ,       ,                ,    .                  .           19701980- .;    ,  ,   .[33 - Neyer G. Family Policies and Low Fertility in Western Europe // www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/Population/2003_6/3.Neyer.pdf.]

        3       (  )  ,     .  , ,    ,     ,      2003. 495 .

          .       ,        .   2002.    ,  ,        .  ,     ,         ;       ,        .[34 - Letablier M.-T. Fertility and Family Policy in France // www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/Population/2003_6/9.Letablier.pdf.]

         ,    1990-    ,          .   1980- .     (    2003.                 460      307      2 ).[35 - Statutory parental leave arrangements  end 2003 // http://www.vupsv.cz/parental_leave.pdf.]

          .

   ,            :  23          .           20   1012 .  , ,  ,          .  , ,   ,     80%   .   ,       1564  (72,8%)   2003.     .    ,    1990- .,         1    12% ,    ,    1  2   15%,  2   73%,    ( ) , 25, 37  38%.[36 - Family Policies in Germany. Third report for the project Welfare Policies and Employment in the Context of Family Change. Drafted for the meeting 89 October in Utrecht, Netherlands. P. 18.]

           ,            ,   ,         ,      .         ,                .               ,        ,          .

             ,       .   1990-       45%  ,      13%, , ,       ,     -       .        ,     ,     ,             .

        .   ,   ,    ,    1960- .          , ,   . ,   ,       .        ,  ,     ,          .   ,   1990- .       ,      ,   .          ,  ,    ,     ,             ,     .[37 - Le Goff J.-M. Cohabiting unions in France and West Germany: Transitions to first birth and first marriage // Demographic Research. Vol. 7, article 18. Pp. 593623.]

         , ,          .           (. 1.7),        .



 1.7.          






     . ,    ,    ,   ,     .[38 - Lesthaeghe R. Europe's demographic issues: fertility, household formation and replacement migration // www.un.org/esa/population/publications/popdecline/lesthtextandtable.pdf.]      .-T. ,  ,           .  ,  ,        ,     .     ,      .     ,         ,            . <>     ,                   , ,     .[39 - Letablier .-. Op. cit. Pp. 1, 15]

        ,     . ,     .       .   19911998.,  ,        1,72        1,65     . ,          ,  ,        .[40 -  .      //   . 2004. 80. . 2 (   Heran F. Cinqe idees recues sur limigration // Population et societs. Janvier 2004. 397).]

 ,   ,  . ,  ,          .[41 - Gauthier A. The impact of public policies on families and demographic behaviour. Paper presented at the ESF/EURESCO conference The second demographic transition in Europe (Bad Herrenalb, Germany 2328 June 2001) // http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/workshops/010623paper21.pdf]  ,  .             ,    ,             .[42 -       100 PTFR 138,3 0,06 TRANSF 0,14 MATPAY,  PTFR    ; TRANSF    ,  ; MATPAY    ,     .  R


 0,21.   TRANSF     0,03,  MATPAY  .  . Lesthaeghe R. Op. cit. P. 11.]  , ,         ,      ,      .

  ,   ,    ( )                ,    .      :    (  )              ,  ,    .

  ,             ,     ,      . ,         ,          ,   .                     .      ,   , ,            .

                   .                   ,     .

 ,    ,                ,          ,        . /         -   ,        ,      .

       ,           .                  ,   .   50        ,    (.1.1).     ,      .        .        (, ,  - )      .






.1.1.         19502004.



     ,            .      .        ,               .   , ,  .          ,    ,       ( )          ,      .

   ,        ,        ,  ,    ,    .   ,     :   ,  - ,  ,     ,  .               .      ,     ,                .   ,  ,      ;                    -  .         ,  .

       ,                .                 ,         .   ,      ,      ,         .




1.3.       ,   


   .   1980- .  ,           .             ()   .            ,        .         ,             .[43 - Lesthaeghe R., Van de Kaa D. J. Twee demografische transities? // In Bevolking Groei in Krimp/ Dirk J. van de Kaa and Ron Lesthaeghe (eds.). Van Loghum Slaterus, Deventer. 1986. P. 924; Van de Kaa D. J. Europes second demographic transition // Population Bulletin, 1987. 42(1). Washington: The population Reference Bureau. Van de Kaa D. Europe and its Population: the Long View // European Populations: Unity in Diversity. Dordrecht  Boston  London. 1999. P. 149.;    .         //      /  . . . . .:  , 2002. . 9096.]

  ,     ,              ,       .  ,     1960- .,             (.1.2).

                 . ,   .   ,       ,           ,      .     ,           ,  ,        ,     .       , ,   ,          .






.1.2.      ( .   )



   ,  .   ,      .       ,  ,   ,  ,             .  ,         :     ,       .[44 - .: Van de Kaa D. Europe and its Population: the Long View // European Populations: Unity in Diversity. DordrechtBostonLondon, 1999. Pp. 3031.]

  ,   ,            ,     ,     . <>  ,    ,       ,    蔅        ,   ,     , ,            [45 - Van de Kaa D. Anchored Narratives: The Story and Findings of Half a Century of Research into the Determinants of Fertility // Population Studies. 1996. Vol. 50, 3. P. 425.]

    :     .          1960- . ,    ,   ,     .         .

 ,    (European Value Survey),            .     (  ,  ,  , )   ,        (stress individual autonomy);  ,    (weaker civil morality);   ,     ;   ;  (world orientation);   ;   .[46 - Surkyn J., Lesthaeghe R. Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update // Demographic research special collection 3, article 3 published. 17 april 2004. P. 54 // http://www.demographic-research.org.] .   .         . ,     :        -     ,      .

 (   )   ,     .    ,   ,   ,  ,     ,         (local or national identification);          . ,    ,              .

        ,      ?        ,       .     , ,      .           .

  ( - )  . , ,       .   , ,       ,   .        ,   ,      ,      ,          .[47 -  .  . .: , 2002. . 136, 258.]

,         ,      .    ,   ,        ,  ,   -,     ,  ,     ,        (  ),    ,         ,     ,     ,    .      ;     ,      .[48 -  . . 198.]

 , .    ,    ,     ;     ,      .       :       ,       .           ,         .[49 -  .  . .: , 2002. . 247.]

   ,   ?   ,    ,    ,    .     ,        ,         ,    .

             .         .

, ,    .    .  , ,      (parochial) .[50 - Coleman D. Why we dont have to believe without doubting in the Second Demographic Transition  Some Agnostic Comments, Contribution to a debate on the Second Demographic Transition, European Population Conference, Warsaw, August 2003 (unpublished) // http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/Oxpop/recent%20presentation%20files/Why%20we%20dont.ppt.]

            ,   ,           .

  . .     ,     ,       ,   .[51 - Sobotka T., Zeman K., Kantorova V. Second demographic transition in the Czech Republic: Stages, specific features and underlying factors Paper presented at the EURESCO Conference The second demographic transition in Europe, Bad Herrenalb, Germany, 2328 June 2001. SECOND DRAFT, July 2001. P. 1 // http://www.demogr.mpg.de/cgi-bin/publications/list.plx?&listtype=14&workshopid=2.]       :       ,            ?

.          ,   ,  ,       .  ,  ,    ,       ,     ;         ,      ,   ,     , , ,          .[52 - Van de , D. Anchored Narratives: The Story and Findings of a Half a Century of Research into the Determinants of Fertility // Population Studies. 1996. Vol.50, 3. P. 425.]

    , , ,           ,          -   . , ,       ,    ?    ,   ,          ,     . -    : ,        ?        -?.[53 - - .  :     // Pro et contra. 2001. . 6, 3. . 132.]

   ,     ,    .  ,  .         ,        ,    ,           ,  , ,         . ,     ,              .              , , ,        ,         2001. .

    ,      .    (       )           ,    -   - ,     .

                 .           -  .             .          ,     .            ,                 .  ,   ,         (  ,    . )     .   ,          .

           .               .          :    - ,   -  .

       ,           ,           ,         .[54 - Van de Kaa D. Demographies in transition: an essay on continuity and discontinuity in value change Dirk van de Kaa // European Population Conference Warsaw, 2630 August 2003. Population of Central and Eastern Europe. Challenges. Warsaw 2003. P. 656.]  ,   ,      , ,    ,    .

,  ,  .     []                 ,  ,    1930- .   195070- .  . ,   1960- .,      ,          ,       .  ,           .           -     ,      .             ,          ,                  ,   .[55 - Caldwell J. The contemporary population challenge // Completing the Fertility Transition / UN Population Division. N. Y. 2002 // http://www.un.rg/esa/population/completingfertility/completingfertility.htm.]

   ,      ,                .   1960- .      (   )        ,    .        ,                ?  -     11  2001.,       ,               (   )    .

       ,            .      ,   ,     :               .[56 -  . - // Newsweek. 2006. 14.0820.08. . 60.]

   ,        , ,   ,                   - .    ? ,  .       .

              ,   , , .      ,      ,           ,    .            .




1.4.    


  , -,    , -,    (           ).       .

,   ,         ,    (     )      ,      0,10,2%  .   ,        ,      7080   (        ).   1970- .      ,  ,   ,   ,        .

 ,           ,     .    ,   ,         (, 2  1,9     ).    100  1967.    35-     175 .                   ,  ,  2.   ,               ,         0,1%  .

            .   ,   ,        ,    .  ,   . 1.8,  ,               ,       .



 1.8.  ,            




: International Migration 2006. UN. Population Division // http://www. unpopulation.org; 2005 World Population Data Sheet; http://www.prb.org.



         :   ,       ,   ,      ,          ,   (  )    .      :       ,                 ,    ,  .

            .  1960-   1970- .         , , .           ,            .             .            .        ,       .

             .           2001.,      4,5 ,  7,6%  .         .    ,      9%  .        2 .  ,       ,     5     10% .            ,    ,   .1.3.

        .           ,       13%, 12%  ,        70%  .   ,    ,       ,   . ,   2001.  ,                .       29%      .






.1.3.  ,          ( %   )



       ,   ,       ,    .   ,                             .             ,   ,      .         ,       . ,   ,              .

             ,  :           ,      ,    .   ,    ,      .                         ,        .      ,         ,           .  ,        ,     ,           ,   ,     .

,                ,         .    ,     ,     2005.    ,   .   ,            ,   .     : ,      ,      ,         .

   .  ,       ,  - .     :     ,          ,      .           1968.,     1994.       (SMIC),  ,       2006.,  , ,     .    ,    ,           .   ,            ? , ,         ?     .

 , , ,               .        ,    .     ,         ,      .   ,        ,    ,       .




 2

  :  





2.1.  


        ,    ,    .       ,   ,       (  20%) .[57 -     2005 //     (). .:  , 2005. . 241. , ,        , , . ,   ,    2003.    1  (   )   14 729    (,      )  29 525    (     ).]     .      (1,21,3     )    ,     .

      ,  25  1957.        ().      ,  1984.,           .     ,            ,  ,          .             .

-,   ,  ,                    .   , , .           .         ,         .

-,  ,        ,       .             ,   ,     , .               .

-,            .  ,  ,       .        .




2.2.       


       .

   .               ,  .  ,            ,     (. 2.1).   ,         ,  20,0 ,    21,2 ,    22,2 ,      26,6 ,     27,1 .       :       21,9 ,    29,7.[58 - Iacovou M. Leaving home in the European Union/ISER Working Papers, 200118 // www.iser.essex.ac.uk/pubs/workpaps/pdf/2001.]



 2.1. ,              ,    




: Iacovou M. Leaving home in the European Union/ISER Working Papers, 200118 // http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/pubs/workpaps/pdf/2001; Demoscope Weekly // http://www.demoscope.ru.



                ,    . ,            28,1 ,    27,2,    27,0,      26,0,    27,8.                      .    , ,           . ,             23,8% , 41,5%   43,1%   66,6%   76,5% .      ,  ,    - ,       ,        :    :    45,6%,   52,4%,   73,9%,   82,1%.

 ,   .         .          ,      .    ,  19982000.      55%     2534 ,  42% , 32%   28%    .        7%,    15%.[59 - Iacovou M. Leaving home in the European Union/ISER Working Papers, 2001. 18 // http://www.iseressex.ac.uk/pubs/workpaps/pdf/2001.]              ,      .     ,    ,        ,    ,     ,      .[60 - Kiernan ?. Cohabitation and divorce across nations and generations // London School of Economics, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, CASE paper 65, March 2003 // http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/cp/CASEpaper65.pdf.]

,  ,      1  1970.        ,    .     ,     ,  ,     , 12  1974.   .    59,1%      ,           . ,      1987.,      .[61 - Patti S., Rossi C., Bellisario E. Grounds for divorce and maintenance between former spouses in Italy / University of Rome, La Sapienza // http://www2.law.uu.nl/priv/cefl/Reports/pdf/Italy02.pdf.]

   ,  ,         (   1000 )     1971.   ,      (0,7) -  ,        ( 2003.   2,6,   1,4,   2,4).

    1931.   1932.                   .   1939.,       19361939.,      .       40   ,   1981.,        1978.   .[62 - Martin-Casals , Ribot J., Sol J. Grounds for divorce and maintenance between former spouses. Spain. Univ. of Girona. October 2002 // http://www2.law.uu.nl/priv/cefl/Reports/pdf/Spain02.pdf]        ,     ,  2003.,     (1,13  1000 )  ,      .

.   XXI      (.2.1)     (.2.2)    ,   ,    ,  ,    ,   60- .  .  1965.               :   5,8%,   5,9%,   1,8%,   2,4%  ( 1970.)  1,4%.    XXI         . ,     2002.      26,1% ,   (2003)  25,7%,   (2002)  44,3%,    (2003)  13,6%,   (2002)  21,8%.

                 .          .           ,      (     1000 ,    )   57  ,    ,  , , , .    ,          ,       .






.2.1.     , ,      12  . .  (Ŗ12)






.2.2.    (%)  , ,   



 1965.     ()   (2,84)   (2,66)         (2,86),  (2,84)   (2,50).  2005.   :     (1,3)   (1,3)    (1,9),  (1,7)    (1,4).            ,          ,    30    .    19671970.       59,6%,    53,8%,      22,8%,   26,2%.[63 - Frejka T, Kingkade W, Calot G, Sardon J.-P. Cohort childlessness and parity in low-fertility countries // European Population Conference 2001. Helsinki, Finland, 79 June 2001 // http://www.vaestoliitto.fi/toimintayksikot/vaestontutkimuslaitos/eapskonferenssi/papers.html.]  ,                 .     1950.     10%     15%  ,    1966.   , 27  18%.[64 - Dalla Zuanna G. The banquet of Aeolus: A familistic interpretation of Italys lowest low fertility //   Demographic Research 2001. Vol. 4, rticle 5 // http://www.demographic-research.org.]

    .              .           , ,    .  1970- .    .      ,       .

  ,          . ,   19601964.         51.  ,      ,   19801984.         21.  ,      .[65 - International Migration. Regional Processes and Responses. UN, N. Y., Geneva, 1994. P. 24.]

  ,          .  1999.       56%     ,  27%      .[66 - Rapporto sulla situazione demografica italiana (versione breve). Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione // http://www.irpps.cnr.it/irp_it/download/rap_it.pdf.]

  -         10    .   ,      .           ( 0,1%  ),       .

         . 2.2.         .



 2.2.       






     ,     .  (,     )    ,                -   .   ,     ,  .

                    ,  .         ,                  1960- .      (  ,      ,  , ),         ,    -  .




2.3. -    


     ?   ,            (.  , . , .   .),         .         , ,       ,        .             ,   ,      ,  .              .

    .              ,      .           ,      XVIII .             .          .   1981.    71% ,   1999   53%.[67 - - .     // -      http://www.ambafrance.ru/rus/looks/francetoday/religions.asp.]         ,      ,    ( 600.       , 20%   ,    ),[68 - Ibidem.]       ,     10%  .

       . ,  ,     1994., 88,4%   ,[69 -  8,7%         .     2,9%. Fertility and Family Surveys in countries of the ECE region. Italy, UN. N. Y., Geneve, 2000. P. 77.]   ,        ,  3035%.[70 - Pisati M. La frequenza alla messa festiva // Polis. 2000. XIV, 1. . : Dalla Zuana G. Op. cit.]    ,       ,   ,       1983. 64%    1524 ,  1996. 68%.[71 - Cesareo V., Cipriani R., Garelli E, Lanzetti C, Rovati G. La religiosita in Italia, Milano, 1995. . : Dalla Zuana, Op. cit.]

       :   , ,  (  ,       )   !.  1968.         VI Humanae vitae,  ,          .[72 - . : http://www.catharticles.by.ru/history/humanaevitae.htm.]

 , ,      ,           ?   ,     .

 ,  , ,               ,       -  .      ,  ,     .          ,      ,     , ,    .

,     ,     ,      (1865),          (1877).[73 -  .      :   // http://www.state-religion.ru.]    .      ,         (1929)            .[74 - ,    ,     ,     .          ,    ,         .     ,      .  .:  . .    :   19221943.  . . ., 2002.]    1948.            . ,    ,      ,      ,                  (1974  1978.).

   XIX. (1812, 1837, 1869  1876.)    ,       .[75 -  .        .]    (19311936.)  ,        19361939.,     . ,    .  permiso marital              .

 1978.,     ,                  .  1978.         ,   1984.  ,    ,     ,    ,       .          1996  1998.,        ( 1998.      172 ,   173).[76 - Women in Spain // Women in Europe // http://pers-www.wlv.ac.uk.]

   ,    ,     ,   .                   .        1974. .     1970.,  ,   -     ,    ,      1972.,   48%.[77 - Costa M. Il Referendum sul Divorzio // http://www.pagine70.com.]   ,        40,7%    .          .   ,      ,      79,8% ,      48%.      (1981.)    1978.        .

   .              .    ,     ,     (     /     )  ;       .          (       ).     (18601870.)             .   (18101861),     ,    :   ,   .           ,           ,        ,            .  ,  ,          ,      .

             . Il familismo (, )      .   , , , ,   .        .       ,                   .            sistemare (,   )   .

. ,   ,    ,    ,   ,   ,    ,         .            ,   ,        ,    .     ,  ,  ,               .[78 - Squillaci A. Il familismo italiano // http://lafrusta.homestead.com/Riv_familismo.html.]

    ,    ,      , ,   ,   ,     - . ,       1980- ., ,               88% , 79% , 69% , 68% ,   33% .[79 - Eurobarometro, Bollettino Doxa, XL, 2223, Nov. 17th [1986].  : Dalla Zuana G. Op. cit.]

 -               ,     ,             . ,   ,     ,      ,    ,  .        .     ,  ,              , , ,   .      ,         ,    .

             . ,  ,          ,        (. 2.3).             .    ,       ,     ,     ,      .[80 - Hallenstein D. Doing Business in Italy. L., 1991; Locke R. Remaking the Italian Economy. Itaca, 1995.]  ,        ,   ,             .



 2.3.   *       1990- .




*           50. : Dalla Zuana G. Op. cit.



            , ,    . ,         , ,   ,    .

       -   .          . ,   ,      2024       11,6%   15,3% .[81 - Fertility and Family Surveys in Countries of the ECE Region. Standart Country Report. Italy. UN. N. Y., Geneva, 2000. Pp. 113, 114.]  ,     :               .        ,        .

             ,          ,        .      -      .        ,    ,     ,    .[82 -              .  ,         .]              ,      .

     .  -  ,       -  (      ,    2000., 2,17).[83 - Gesano G., Menniti A., Misiti ., Palomba R., Cerhara L. Le intenzioni, i desideri e le scelte delle donne italiane in tema di fecondita. LOsservatorio italiano sulle aspettative di fecondita W. P. 01/2000 luglio 2000. P. 51 // www.irpps.cnr.it/irpit/download/wp100.pdf]   ,   ,            .   -    .                  .        ,     :         ,      .

       ,       .[84 -  ,    ,    ,      , -   ,     : Reher D. S. Family Ties in Western Europe: Persistent Contrasts // Population and Development Review. 1998. Vol. 24, 2; Granovetter M. S. 1973. The strength of weak ties // American Journal of Sociology 78(6): Pp. 13601380; Granovetter, M. S. 1985. Economic action and the social structure: The problem of embeddedness // American Journal of Sociology 91(3): Pp. 481510.]     ,       ,       ?   ,    (   )                ,     ()    .[85 -             (18061882): Le Play F. Les ouvriers europens, 2-?me ed. en 6 v. Pp. 18771879.       1881. ,    ,  ,                   - : Cocchi D., Crivellaro D., Dalla Zuana G., Rettaroli R. Nuzalita, famiglia e sistema agricolo in Italia negli anni 80 del XIX siecolo // Genus. 1996. Vol. LII. Pp.125159.]               (       )    .[86 - Micheli G. Kinship, Family and Social Network: The anthropological embedment of fertility change in Southern Europe //   Demographic Research. Vol. 3, article 13, http://www.demographic-research.org.]

    .           ,          .

      . ,   1975.,    .                  (     5%  ).[87 - Miret-Gamundi P. Nuptiality patterns in Spain in the eighties // Genus. Vol. LIII, n. 34. P. 185.]         .          ,           .  1976.         15  50  (       ,    )  92,6%,   93,3%,[88 -         ,    , 92,6%           .]         , 26,1  23,1 .

           .     .     ,     , -  ,        34  ,  .      .             .  1992.       74,3%,    78,6%,          2,5  (,  28,7  26,4 ).[89 - Miret-Gamundi P. Op. cit. P. 187.]

  ,         ,      .          ,     .                ,          .[90 - Cordon]. Spain. Low fertility // http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/employmentsocial/eoss/downloads/spain2000fertilen.pdf; Di Tommaso M. Trivariate Model Of Participation, Fertility And Wages: The Italian Case. Cambridge Journal of Economics 23 (5). 1999. September. Pp. 515691.]  ,    ,    ,   ,  ,     .

 [91 - Kohler H.-P., Billari F., Ortega J. The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s // Population and Development Review. December 2002. Vol. 28 Number 4; Irazoqui M. Leaving the nest in two different European contexts. Introduction of a research on housing and nest leaving // The Annals of the Marie Curie fellowships. Vol 1. Pp. 144150.] ,               ,         .         ,             ( )  .       ,   ,      ,       -    .




2.4.    ?


      ,           .     ,  ,  . -,    ,       1960- .,      , ,      . -,     ,      .

        1968. .         ,                  .               .               ?

  ,   ,        .           ,   (  )             ,          ,   ,       .              ,                .

    .                     .  ,     ,        ,      .

   , ,     .            .     ,     , ,     -   ? ,           .                      ,    ?

   ,    . . ,  ,     ,       ,   ,          .[92 -  . ,     . .:    , 1997. . 12.]   , ,   - .     ,          ,              .   ,                        .    (     ),         , , .

 ,            ,      ,    .             ,   .

          ,           .  ,             .,        .     ,     ,                         .     ,   ,               .

        ,          .     ,  , ,   .       ,       ,    (   )     .   ,        ,     .    ?!




 3

   :   





3.1.   :     


          (  )[93 - ,         ( ),        - .]    ,    .     ,       ,  ,   .  , ,  ,      .

.             :

      ;

  ,[94 -     ,                 ,  .]        ;

,   ,       ;

     (  ,   )    ,     ,    .

         ,    1960-        .  1962.     (68,1 )   (74,8 ),   ,    (66,9  73,8 ).        (67,3  73,6),  (66,9  72,9 ),  (65,6  70,0).

     1960- .       (.3.1).          .       1961. (67,8 )    ,  1986. (67,5 ),   .       68,9  1965.  65,6  1984.         ,         .                     , ,   .






.3.1.          



    ,     1970- .     .  , ,    1985.  71,3     79,3   .     1980-            ,           .

          (. 3.1)         (   ),     (. 3.2).



 3.1.          19702004., 




*   , ,     ;     2005.

:  Weekly // http://www.demoscope.ru; Eurostat news release, March 2006, 29/2006; World Health Organization 2006 Mortality Country Fact Sheet.





 3.2.       ,      19752006., 




:  .   / . . . . ., 1989;  Weekly // http:/www.demoscope.ru; 2006 World Population Data Sheet // http://www.prb.org.



         ,    ,       (. 3.3).



 3.3.      ,        






               ,      .              ,         .

 ,     ,          ,          .          ,             . ,      ()  1993.    (1996., %  1989.)  0,73;    ()  1993.       1996  1989. 0,81;    (1996., %  1989.)        1996  1989. 0,79.[95 -   .:  .    :   // . 1998. 35;  Weekly  http://www.demoscope.ru.]

         ,        ( 1991.),  ( 1992.),  ( 1994.).        ,       ,     . ,    1993.  ()  1   $8422,    $5962,      $3310,    $2215.        .  1930.      (  )   37% ,   ,    19% ,   .[96 - Rychtar?kov J. The Case of the Czech Republic Determinants of the recent favourable turnover in mortality // Workshop First Seminar Of The IUSSP Committee On Emerging Health Threats: Determinants Of Diverging Trends In Mortality, 1921 June 2002. P. 2 // http://www. demogr.mpg.de/Papers/ workshops/020619paper34.pdf]

             (,  1997, 1998  1999.).         1996.,        ( 2001.     ).          , , .              1990.    2004.        2002.  0,9 ,    1,9 .               .

. ,          ,       .                   ,        . ,                     ,     .         ,    .   ,      ,   ,           ,      ,      .[97 -  .,  .     //          .     . ., 1997. . 385.]

        ,     ,        .      ,    ,    ..,  ,    .                .     ,        ,       (  ,    ..).  ,            ,           .

      ,             ,   .         ,        ,   .  ,  ,                ,  ,       . ,             , ,       ,        ,          .

         ,       . ,  ,         ,     ,     .[98 - Okolski M. Health and Mortality // European Population Conference, 2326 March 1993. Proceedings, N. Y., Geneva, 1994. Vol. 1. P. 173.]  (  ),      ,   ,      ,    ,      .[99 -    19002000 /  . . . . ., 2006. . 391.]

 ,     ,          ,  , , .  ,           ,  ,    ,  .      ,         ..

 , ,       i.  ,  ,         ,       - ,    -  .  , ,  ,     - ,    ,  , ,  . ,               -.

  ,        ,          ,  ,   .   ,  ,  ,     , ,   ,     , ,     .       -  , ,     .  ,   ,         ,   , .

         .  , , ,                  ,     .         , ,     .

                ,          . ,      ,        .        (   ) . ,   ,         ,       ,   .    ,     ,   ,  ,     .       ,     .      ,     .

                   .        (   ,       )  .       ,    ,       .  ,           ,      .         ,       ,    .          ,      .

           ,         .         .  ,          ,           .




3.2.   


                   . ,  1988.           1,81 ()  2,31 ()        (1,7)  12     .[100 -        , , , , , , , , , ,   .]

       :   ,   ,    (.3.2).  2001.             .         1,10 ()  1,34 (),             1,64 (. 3.4).    -      .       ,          .






.3.2.       . :  -12       12     



 ,   ,          ,         .            ,      , , .      ,      .        ( 20002005. 140.     )   (30. ),     1000     ,     -    2004. 27,1%  .[101 - International Migration 2006 // http://www.unpopulation.org.]      ,   ,   ,      (.3.3).



 3.4.           19652005.




*   .

**       , , , , , , , , , , , .








.3.3.    ( 1000 )      



                (    1000   ),      :            ,   (.3.4).[102 -        28% ()  76% ()       . .: Sobotka ?. Ten years of rapid fertility changes in european postcommunist countries: evidence and interpretation // http://www.rug.nl/ prc/publications/workingPapers/download/WP_02_1.pdf.]     ,   ,    ,      ,                   ,  .        ,         ( )    - .            - ,       ,  ,   .






.3.4.           , . : Eurostat realise 29/2006, March 2006



  ,        1990- .,        ( 1000 )     ,    ,     (.3.5). ,        ,         ,   ,      ,         .

 ,      ,     ,                .         ,          ,       ,    .   ,            (.   1)          .  ,           ,   .[103 -      .: Sobotka . Op.cit.]     (      )       . .[104 - Spder Z. Fertility behaviour in a period of economic pressures and growing opportunities: Hungary in the 1990s. European Population Conference Warsaw, 2630 August 2003. Population of Central and Eastern Europe. Challenges and Opportunities. Ed. by Irena E. Kotowska and Janina Jozwiak. Statistical Publishing Establishment. Warsaw 2003. Pp. 458483.]              ,                      .[105 - Economic Survey of Europe. 2000. . 1. P. 206.]






.3.5.       , %. : Demoscope Weekly; Eurostat Release 136/2005, October 2005



  ,       ,              .       ,    -,       .         , ,     (.  6).




3.3.      


    ,  ,       .        . :        ,     .[106 -  .,  . . 2- . . 23. . 646.]            :       ,       .[107 - ., .:  // . 2- . ., 1954. . 29. . 175.]     ,             ,   ,    ,    ,   ,      ..        , ,    .

  60- .          :          .       .    ,       ,          .

              .      ,    ,         ,  ,   ,   .     :         ,       .            :     ,     - ,       .[108 -  1985.          71,9 ,   78,5 ,  , , 69,5  75,4 .]       ,  , ,       -.  -       ,   ,         .

      ,     ,                  .       ,    .          ,             .

      ,     , ,   -      .   ,       ,             - .        ,      ,   . ,      ,    ,      ,     . ,      ,       .      .

             . ,      ,   ,     . ,              .                       .            .     ,       ,       ,  .      ,                .

         ,       ,      .            ,       ,      .  ,      ,   ,              .        ,  .

   ,            , ,    ,  .      - .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/mihail-klupt/demografiya-regionov-zemli-sobytiya-noveyshey-demograficheskoy-istorii/)  .

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