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   ,        .    - 2019  (  ). ,   ,       .

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    ,   1314   .     (, , ,    )          .   ,               .                      .             ,   ,       .        -  .


  

,         ,     .              2014 .        ,     ()     35       9 . ,                .

        , ,   , 2020        (,  -    ).      ,          .              :            ѻ. ,  ,         ,   , 3035%.              ,   .     2018     10-      ..  ()  :                .


 

                       .             ,   .                   -    .       . ,  ,        ,      .

         :      ,           .         2014 ,        .        ().          .                  (CIPS).     ,     .  ,         ,      .

    .           .    ,           400.    ,      (  ).               (,     ).       ?           ,       8  .        ,     .  ,             .


 

               .        :               .        .               ,       .       :   ,               .         ,               .   ,  ,     ,     .      ,      ,      , , ,              .               .


         

 ,              - ,      .   2013           .

                2013  (%):   1,3;    96,2;   1,2;    1,3.        2018  (%):   11,1;   73,1;   11,1;    4,7.      2019    (%):   21,1;   35,2;   38,6;    5,1.  ,                  .        2 .       ,      ,             .

            .   2013  (%):   5,3;    88,2;   4,3;    2.2.   2018  (%):   5,3;  -72,3;   4,7;    14,7.     2019  (%):   5,8;   67,3;   4,8;    22,2.            20132019.            . ,      ,      .


 

          ,  .       .   :         ,  ,  ,        .  -            .                          .

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 ?     

           .     :               (    ).  -     -    ()  ,     . -,   -   . -,        .       .     (   ) .    .          (       )    - ,          .

,    .  19791998.        ()     .       15     .

,  -      (   ,    )       ,     ,    .

,      ,       .         (),                      .   ,    .  , ,   ,       .           ( ).

    ,           .                  . ,       ,               ,    .  , ,          ,        -  (    ,    ).




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     ,  ,              ,    .

              ,    ,      .  ,  ,   ,     188  .    230%  ,  ,     , 20-     Annual Research Conference[1 - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7661737/Global-debt-hits-time-high-188-TRILLION-DOUBLE-worlds-economic-output-IMF-warn.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7661737/Global-debt-hits-time-high-188-TRILLION-DOUBLE-worlds-economic-output-IMF-warn.html)].

       ,     182  . ,    ,          6 . .  :      2019      3%,    2,5 . .    2018           ,             . ,  ,      .

            ,         .         ,    .   ,                250  .  ,           (   ),      32,5. .[2 - https:// (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-01/the)www.bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg/).com/news/articles/2019-12-01/the  way- out-for-a-world-economy-hooked-on-debt-yet-more-debt] ,         -     .    ,  ,         (The Institute of International Finance).  ,  ,         ,        .

     ,            (. .): 1999. -83,9; 2004. 126,1; 2009. 186,0; 2014. 215,1; 2019. ( )  250,9.          7,5 . .               (60%).  ,           4,4 . .   2019   255,3 . .  ,            .

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   . 1,            .       .          .          300%  2009     320%   2019 .

  20092019.      70 . .                (  27 . . ).

       ,    ,        .        ,    115 . . ( IIF).

   2018        -         , , ,             ()    .   .

 ?  ,      ( )           .   ,   ,       ,      ( ,   ). ,            .        ,          2 ,       1,85%.            .

,   ,                12 . .        .             .

 ,    -,        .         2007      .        .  ,       ,  .     (      )   .           ,    .   .           . ,        ,      3%.   ,    ,          1 ,       .    (   )          . ,  ,   .

    ,    ,     ,          .          ,      .          ,   .           .   ,       ,        (   ,   ).    .     300  ,    , ,             6 . .         ,    ,       [3 - https://www.lombardiletter.com/retirement-crisis-brewing-us-wont-end-well/32068/ (https://www.lombardiletter.com/retirement-crisis-brewing-us-wont-end-well/32068/)].

,     ,      20-      ( ,   );     . -  1927        .         -,     (   ).        .   ,      (prosperity).  - ,   1929   -   ,      .     ( )   ,        (  ).        .           .    ,     .

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,    ,      ().  ,         20072009.    ,            .  -   (    )     .

     ,          .    ,     25  2008         ,           .      31  2010 .   .         ( 3  2010.  30  2011.).          ( 13  2012.  31  2014.).        :     0,8 . .  4,5 . .  ,   ,     ,      .

       ,       .  2015      ,       - .   , ,          31  2018 .      .            2,5 . .     ,           .

  ,        .      .            .       :     ,          ,   ,    .

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      23  


       .           31  2019 .        23 ( )  [4 - https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current)].   ,       23.008.409. .      (debt held by the public)  16.981.311.,      (intragovernmental debt) -6.027.098. .             1  ,         23 . .[5 - https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)]

  , ,   ,        . ,  13          ,        22 . .              [6 - https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0919.pdf (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0919.pdf)].        2019   (     1 ,   30 ).  ,   ,           .    984. .   .       .    ,           1  ,   ,        23         .   ,   ,    ,  .

,         ,      ,        .           .     ,       20082014.   .  -         .

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       ,   . ,           (. .): 1950. 256,9; 1960. 290,5; 1970. 380,9; 1980. 909,0. ,        (% ): 1950. 94,0; 1960. 54,3; 1970. 36,3; 1980. 32,5.

      :        .        .      .  1990       3,2 . .,     54,2%.

 19982001. ( )           (      1970 ).      .      .  ,   XXI ,     .  2000     5,63 . . (55,5% ),  2010   13,53 . . (91,4%).         100%     (20112012.).

              .               .

          19,9 . .                : 20 . .   2017 , 21 . .   2018 , 22 . .   2019 , 23 . .   2019 .             ( ,        ),               24 . .               2020 ,          25 . .  ,     ,           4,55,0 . .          10,6   19,9  . ..  9,3 . .         ,       .  ,          .

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                 .            8 . .,         ,        17 . .   30%       

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,             .        ,       .        .

  ,     .     ,      ,       ,        ,        ,     .                    (      100. .,        10,8. .).

     ,       .       -     .    -      ,  ,                    (      1,50-1,75%).  (  2019 )      .        20082014.,       .           (            ).

    ,         .    .      .        ,         60. . [7 - https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule)].

   ( 16  22 )          7,825 . .   ,      3 ,          (    7,825 .).

     ,   .         ( . repurchase agreement   ,                 ;      ).    12   14           (    )   120 [8 - https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details)].

,     ,      .        ,          (   ).

         326 ,   120    ,      .          4 . .

   (   2019.    2020.)    -,   ,   215   ,      . ,    2019     2020          .  ,       2020       ,      2014 ,        ( 4,4 . .).

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          ,    .      ,   ,   .        ,           .             ( )   400. .       .

           2     2016 .    ,           1,5%.          2,0%          70- .

,   ,    .        ,     .          .  -        .               ,    .

          ,                 . ,       .    2018     2019       1.154,4.  1.102,4. ., ..  52,0. .     ,           117,8. .,      1145,8. . ,          (,  , , ).   ,      ,      .

   .  , ,    .            . ,   2018                 (%):  (    )  36;     15;     13;     ( )  13;     11;       4;       6;    1.

  ,   ,  ,           .       .    .   ,          ,      .    , ,      .

        ,              . ,   ,     ,  -      .      ,    (  )        .            ,  .        2018      (13%  15%)     ,    ( ).  ,        ,         ,     .     .

       (  1  2019 )   ,  1 . .  830         ,  250      .  ,     ,        420 . ..   (   40%)        [9 - https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-will-buy-40-us-treasury-net-issuance-2020 (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-will-buy-40-us-treasury-net-issuance-2020)].        .

        ,    ,           .  ,                  .         .         ,      ,   .  ,          .    ,    ,      ,    . ,                 .




 :       


         ,   -              .   2019     ,      .     Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act  DASKA (      ).     ,      2018 .   DASKA        .

DASKA               .            .          1 .   5 .         .

     DASKA              14 .         ,    ,      .

      .       ,        .        (    ,   ).  ,        .          .

       ,    .        ,       .           .

  ,    ,   DASKA  ,    .             ,       .    .

  ,        ,      .         3    750. .           2,5. .     :      ,   30%   ,       .

 ,               .          ,    ?     ,                 .       ,           .

,             () .   ,  1         47.557,7. .,         -11.493,9. .  1        53.935,7. 12.331,2. .  ,  (  )      36.063,8.  41.604,5. .      9   5,54. .,  15,4%.

   ,              .               (),     .         2019  (9 )            59,13  124,46. ., ..  65,33. .         7% . ,   ,   .     ,    .  ,         ( ).

    ,     ,     ,      .    -       ,         .        ,       .

   ,           DASKA.        ,       ,      [10 - https://www.c-span.org/video/7466936-1/undersecretary-david-hale-testifies-us-policy-russia&start=4889 (https://www.c-span.org/video/7466936-1/undersecretary-david-hale-testifies-us-policy-russia&start=4889)].              . ,        , ,  ,    ..  , , ,          2020 .                  .

              :      ,        ,       .

  :    ,    ,            .     DASKA,    ,      ,  11     .   ,  DASKA              ,  ,    .               ,    .   ,         44 .  ,          .




 III







        


    (  ),       ,  , , .        ,           . 1     ,        23 . .       :  2019.     22 . .   ,          .        237%    () .       ,             176,6%    [11 - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EUQ (https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EUQ)].               .     ( 2009 )        115% .

         ,      .          16,5% .     -    8,2% .

 -        ,            .           ; 2018 ,   ,     20,58 . .,     13,37 . . -  ,               :  25,28 . .       (..    )        2014 .

       ?   ,         .  2018      50,64%[12 - https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx)].                (% ):   104,26;   237,13;   104,26;   61,69;   98,39;   132,16.  ,       .         ,   .

 ,  ,   ,                 (,        ).       .  ,    (World Economic Outlook Database)  2018       21,46 . . ,    ,       ,  44,79 . .          6,54 . .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/valentin-katasonov/ekonomika-lzhi-valovoy-virtualnyy-produkt-i-dengi-s-neb/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7661737/Global-debt-hits-time-high-188-TRILLION-DOUBLE-worlds-economic-output-IMF-warn.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7661737/Global-debt-hits-time-high-188-TRILLION-DOUBLE-worlds-economic-output-IMF-warn.html)




2


https:// (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-01/the)www.bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg/).com/news/articles/2019-12-01/the  way- out-for-a-world-economy-hooked-on-debt-yet-more-debt




3


https://www.lombardiletter.com/retirement-crisis-brewing-us-wont-end-well/32068/ (https://www.lombardiletter.com/retirement-crisis-brewing-us-wont-end-well/32068/)




4


https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current)




5


https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)




6


https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0919.pdf (https://fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0919.pdf)




7


https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule)




8


https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details (https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details)




9


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-will-buy-40-us-treasury-net-issuance-2020 (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-will-buy-40-us-treasury-net-issuance-2020)




10


https://www.c-span.org/video/7466936-1/undersecretary-david-hale-testifies-us-policy-russia&start=4889 (https://www.c-span.org/video/7466936-1/undersecretary-david-hale-testifies-us-policy-russia&start=4889)




11


https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EUQ (https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/EUQ)




12


https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx)


