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  ( 1952 ),   ( 1954 )   () - ( 1957 )  



ON GRAND STRATEGY

Copyright  2018, John Lewis Gaddis

All rights reserved

   , 2021







 ,        .      : , ,   , ,   ,       . ,    ,     .          ,      .    ,  (1832),      ,             .            (, ,     :       ,   ,        ).

    ,        .   ,        -  1975 1977  ,     .      2002,              ,       .         ,        .    ,   ,      ,         ,    ,    ,    -  ,                ,     [1 - .      -   : www.usnwc.edu/Faculty-and-Departments/Academic-Departments/Strategy-and-Policy-Department.        www.grandstrategy.yale.edu/background; . : Linda Kulman, Teaching Common Sense: TheGrand Strategy Program atYale University (Westport, Connecticut: Prospecta Press, 2016).].

        :              ;       .                ,            (     ).         .

 2006          -:     ,   ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    .          :   ( ),   (2016     , 20162017     ,       ),   ( , 2017     ),  ( ,  ),   ( ),  - (     )   (   ,     ).

    ,      ,      ,     .   ,     ,   ,          :                   .   ,      ,   [2 -     ,     .   :         .     .     Strategies ofContainment (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005),    : John Lewis Gaddis, Grand Strategies in theCold War, inMelvyn P.Leffler andOdd Arne Westad, TheCambridge History of theCold War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010), vol. 2, p. 121.],                :      ,  . ,   ,    ,     ;      ,  . . ,        [3 -                       .  1],    ,    19921993. ,     ,      . ,      .

              ,   ,    .         ,           Penguin:  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,     .

     ,     蠄蓻  2017,      -    :  -,  ,  ,  ,  -,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    .    ,    :  Ē,  -,   III,  -  .

               .               .               :  ,  ,   ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,   ,    - , 31  ,  ,    .      , ,  , , ,      ,    ,  ,       ,   (!)       .

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 2017




 1

 


: 480 .. : ,     ,           .       . ,   ,     ,   ,   ,       .        , , ,   ,          ⠫Ļ 1944.      ,     :     ,        ;    :        .   ,       ,        ,      . ,  -         ,      ,    .

  , ,    .       . ,    , ,  .      ,  ,            [4 -          ,              . . .].    ,     ,    ,     .    ,    ,      :              ,            ?    :      .

         ,  ,    ,     .    ໠      ,   ,        ,   :        ,    ,      ,  .           ,             .         ,             .      .      ,        ,             ,         ,    .

       . ,  ,  ,    ,      .     .     ,   ,       .      ,   .        ,       .      ,     , ,    ,  .   ,  ,    ,    .       ,   ,  []      .       .

 .      ,         .          ,   .       .      .     :           ,     ,  ,    ,  .     ,       .        ,    - ,   ,             .       ?[5 - Herodotus, TheHistory, Book VII: 156.     : Herodotus, TheHistory. Translated by David Grene (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1987), p. 466490.     .:Robert Kaplan, A Historian For Our Time, TheAtlantic, January, 2007.]


I

            ,    .  ,      ,  ,  - ,       ,     .    ,   ,      ,          ,        . ʠ1939      ( 1379),       (        )    .

   ,               - .   ,    ,      ,    ,       -.         .  ,    , :    ,   ,   [6 - Michael Ignatieff, Isaiah Berlin: ALife (New York: Metropolitan Books, 1998)   .    p. 173,  .: Ramin Jahanbegloo, Conversations with Isaiah Berlin, 2nd ed. (London: Halban, 1992), p. 188189, Isaiah Berlin, Enlightening: Letters 19461960, edited by Henry Hardy andJennifer Holmes (London, Pimlico, 2011), p. 31n.    : C.M.Bowra, The Fox and theHedgehog, TheClassical Quarterly, 34 (January-April, 1940), 2629.].

     ,     .           [7 -           : Stephen Jay Gould, TheHedgehog, theFox, and theMagisters Pox: Mending theGap between Science and theHumanities (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2011), p. 18.],    .  ,        ?  , , , ,     . , , ,     , .     ,      ,   ,        [8 - Isaiah Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, edited by Henry Hardy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013), p. 91.    ,      ,       ,  2011.       : Joseph Carlsmith, The Bed, theMap, and theButterfly: Isaiah Berlins Grand Strategy ofGrand Strategy, http://berlin.wolf.ox.ac.uk/lists/onib/carlsmith.pdf.].                1951,              .           .

,  ,         ,    ,     . , ,     ,        ,    ,      -.   ,  :      ,     ,     . ,         , ,     .

    ,        ,    .  ,       :      ,   ,    .    ,       ,    .               ,   ,         ⠫ .  ,       ,     ,         [ ] ,  [9 - Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 23, 90;  ,   ,  ,  .  (:   , 2001), . 183184, 268.].

    ,   .          1910   82,   .              ⠫  [10 - A.N.Wilson, Tolstoy: ABiography (New York: Norton, 1988), p. 506517.].   ,      -   ,          . ,  ,        蠫. , , ,     ,  .            .  .   .

     , ,  ,  ,    ,       ,     .       .   ,    [11 - Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. xv  xvi.].         :    [         ]  蠄?      :   [     ],   蠄?        :        ? :     ? , :   ,   ?

  ,     ,      ,       .             .    :          .


II

,  480- 420-  ..,    蠫  (680645 ..).       ,  ,           ,    蠫  [12 - Herodotus, I: 12, p. 38.].     ,      ,      ,     .

   ,        ,  ,  ,      ,     ,            .         .    ,     ,     ,         ?     ,      ,  ,    ,    .

,  ,        ,    .     ,         ,     ?    ,   ?  ,     .   - .       ,       ,      ,     .   , ,       ,   [13 - Ibid., VII: 8, 10, p. 469, 472. . : Tom Holland, Persian Fire: TheFirst World Empire and theBattle for theWest (New York: Doubleday, 2005), p. 238.].

    , ,          ,       ,   ,         .    ,     ,  ,    ,    ,   .       .      (   ),   .      ,       砫 ,   ,       [14 - Herodotus, VII: 8, 2224, p. 469, 47879; Holland, Persian Fire, p. 212214.].   ,     :          .      ,    .

       ,       .      ,     :     ,    .     .     ,  ,   . ,  ,  .          [15 -        .:Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: AHistory (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 22;  , : , ,  (:  , 2017), . 34.].

         . ,    ,         ,     .    ,     ,     [16 - ,  .     ,    .],       . ,   ,      ,   ,         XX         .


III

  ,     ,  ,      ,      27451       1988 2003,  284:  ,  ,  ,   .     ,  2005   ,   ,       -    ,      ,    .

      ,  ..,       ,   .  ,   ,     ,   ,   .  ,      ,  .        蠫,       , .   :       ,  ,       ,   .

  ,   ,       .           ,   ,    -  .    ,    -      .        ,       .      (    ),    .  -    . ,   - , ,      .

 , ,   ,     .    , 蠫    ,   .        ,  -  .       .        ,      ,   .

        ,          ,       ,    ,     ,                       [17 - Philip E.Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005),  pp. xi, 7375, 118, 12829. ,  ,   Dan Gardner, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next toWorthless, andYou Can Do Better (New York: Dutton, 2011).  ,   ,      Superforecasting: TheArt andScience ofPrediction (New York: Crown, 2015).].  ,   .


IV

                     .      ,       .         ,         ,    .   ,    .

 ,    ,   ,           :      ,  ,  ,    ,  ,      .    ,  ,      ,      .

    ,        ,        .  (     )  ,    .            :        ,        ,  ,           ,  ,   ,      ,     ,  ,           [18 - Herodotus, VII:101, 10826, p. 502, 50510.].

         .   ,        ,                     .   ,       ,     ,        .   ,      ,    ,  ,    ,  .       ,      1812:  ,  ,  ,    ,    ?

 ,    ,    .   ,                      ,       . , ,      ,      .       ,     ,       ࠫ , , ,       ,   .                     .      ,             [19 - John R.Hale, Lords of theSea: TheEpic Story of theAthenian Navy and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Penguin, 2009), p. 3639, 5574; Barry Strauss, TheBattle ofSalamis: TheNaval Encounter That Saved Greece andWestern Civilization (New York: Simon andSchuster, 2005).].

   ,    ,        .        ,       .     ,       .    ,        , ,   ,   ,          ,     ,     ,   :  , ,   [20 - Aeschylus, ThePersians, lines 81920, Seth G.Benardete translation (Seth G.Benardete) (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1956), p. 77; , , , ,  .. (: , 1978), 820.  ,  , .:Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, translated by John Dryden (New York: Modern Library, 1992), p. 144; ,   3-., . 1,  .. (:   , 1961), . 157.].

      [21 - Victor Parker, Herodotus Use ofAeschylus Persae as aSource for theBattle ofSalamis, Symbolae Osloenses: Norwegian Journal ofGreek andLatin Studies, 82:1, 229.].  ,      ,      (      ,     ),      ?     :     .      ,   ,     ,    ,      ,             ,     , ࠫ   .


V

     ,       .    -  :        ,     ,       ,       -,       ?         ?   ,    ,        ?[22 - Herodotus, VII: 8, p. 469.]

  ,     ,     .      ,     :  , ,         ?     :     ,        .  - ,     .     .

 ,         .    , ,      .    ,    ,   ,  ,   [23 -      ,   : Victor Davis Hanson, TheSavior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost from Ancient Greece toIraq (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), p. 11.].      ,   ,      -        ,      .       ,   ,    (  ),        ,    (       ).  ,  ,    .     .

  ,     ,   .    ,       :  ,  ,  ,   ,  ,  ,    ,  ,   :      ,    .    ,        ,       .  ,                  .    ,  ,     .

      .          ,      ,    ,     ,        :     ,           [24 - Herodotus, VII: 3839, p. 48384.].       ,   (   )      .       ,    .

     ,        . ,   ,     ,      .  ,   ,  ,    .   .   ,    .    .      ,   , -     .


VI

, ,  ,     ࠫ ,  .   1936                   [25 - F.Scott Fitzgerald, The Crack-Up, Esquire, February, 1936;   , ,   ,     (: , 2019), c. 228234.]. ,       ,  ,   .          ,        ,     ,     -  .    44[26 - Jeffrey Meyers, Scott Fitzgerald: ABiography (New York: HarperCollins, 1994), p. 26165, 33236.].     ,     蠫,   .      [27 -     ,        ,       ,      .].

          ,           ,      ,         .    ?  ,        ,          ?         ,     , ,    .

     ,    , ,           ,    .  ,       ,  ,       ,   , ,    ,   .        ,   ,        ,     .     ,         ,  ,        . ,  ,   ,      ,  ,     .

   ,    .      ,    ,    .  ,   ,   ,      .    :      .     ,  ,      蠫 , , ,   [28 -           (1958),   (1972) 蠫   (1988): Isaiah Berlin, TheProper Study ofMankind, p. 1011, 239, 294 and302;  ,  .  (:   , 2001), . 180;  ,   .   (: +, 2002), . 327.        .].

           ,    ࠫ 蠫?      ꠫ 蠫,    ?  ,   ,   .     蠄, 蠄,     ,  .    ⠫ .      [29 - Jahanbegloo, Conversations with Isaiah Berlin, p. 188189. . : Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 101,       .].

        ,        ,    ,  ,  [30 - ,     ,   .     : Carlsmith, The Bed, theMap, and theButterfly.]   (      )? ,   ,    ,    ,   ,     .   ,   ,        :      ,   .        ( )           .     .


VII

                 ?    ,         .        .     ,        , , , ,   .        ,   :   ,        ,      .  ,    .           .

    (2012)      .   ,  ,    -,       ,     :       ?   ,   ,         ,          .    , , ,     :        ,       [31 - . : Anthony Lane, House Divided, TheNew Yorker, November 19, 2012.].

   (  )  ,           ,  ,       :



         ,   ,       ,   ,     . ,    ,    ,      ,       ,   ,  [32 - IMDb (2012): www.imdb.com/title/tt0443272/quotes.]?


    ,     ,      ,           : ?  ,     (  ),    ( )!.

   ,   ,     , ,  ,    .         ,     :          .    蠫             :     ,      ,   ,    .         :  ,      , ,        ,      - .

 , ⠫        (),      (),    ( , ?).        ,  ,   ,        :    .  ,    ,    ,     [33 -       : Michael Burlingame, Abraham Lincoln: ALife (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), p. 834.].


VIII

      ⠫   -  .           , ,       ,     ,          .     (  )          ,  ;            ;          ,  ,       .      ,    ,   ,   ,   ,        ,    ,               .

   :          ,        ,     .    ,   ,         ,        ,    [34 -          : John Lewis Gaddis, War, Peace, andEverything: Thoughts on Tolstoy, Cliodynamics: TheJournal ofTheoretical andMathematical History 2 (2011), 4051.].          .       ,   :



,   ,    ,       ,              ,    !          ,     -    ,    [35 - Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 12; ,   , . 194.].


     ,      .   ,        ,     ,   .     ,     .    ,    .                𻠖 - , ,  ,     ,     .


IX

        ,         .   ,  ,     ,    ,    ,       ,    .  , , ,     , , ,        ,      ,     ,    .      ,      ,              .       .

      ,      .   ,    .      :            .   ,  ,  ,   .      :   ,    .               :



         ,    ,      .         ,          .    homo sapiens       [36 - Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment, p. 214215; Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast andSlow (New York: Farrar, Strauss andGiroux, 2011), p. 2021,      p. 218220;  ,     (: , 2014), . 3031, 287289.].


 ,     ,     ,  ,                .              -   ,      ,    ,      .

       ?            ?              ꠫,  ꠫,      ?       ,  ,  ,     ?       :  ,   .      ,  -     ,[37 -        - (2002),             . ,                    13 1945,        (http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=16602).]      .


X

     .                 .      ,       ,          ,     .         ,  ,     ,    .       ,   -      ( ,    ,   ,    ).    ,                 ,    .

       ? ,   ,   ,    .        ,         ,              .   ,  ,      ,       ,         ,              .   ,       .   ,       ,        .        ,   .

            .   ,   ,               . ,      ?           .    [38 - Homer, TheIliad, translated by Robert Fagles (New York: Penguin, 1990), p. 371; , ,  .. (-: , 2008), . 196. ,     ,       .].            ,    , ,         [39 -         ,        2013,   : Christopher R.Howell, The Story ofGrand Strategy: TheHistory of anIdea and theSource of its Confusion, p. 2. . : Freedman, Strategy, p. 37; , , . 1519.].

     ,       , ,  .       ( ,   )    (  )      . ,   ,   ,      .   , ,         ,                 ,  ,  .


XI

          ,    ?  ,     ,      ,  ,    ,  ,   ,    ,       ?[40 -     .:Cawardine, Lincoln, p. 410; Fred Kaplan, Lincoln: TheBiography of aWriter (New York: HarperCollins, 2008).    -       .]  :   ,      . ,   ,    .   ,     ?

    ,           ,   ,   .       :        ,  ,   ,        .   ,       :  ,   ,    ,  ,     ,   [41 - Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), p. 54;  ,   , . 1 (: , 2020), . 69.].        ,   .

,        ,     .      .        ,          . , ,         ,   ,     :          ,      . ,  ,    ꠫,     ,  ꠫ :        .                     .  ,       ,     [42 - .:Michael Billig, Learn toWrite Badly: How toSucceed in theSocial Sciences (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013).            : John Lewis Gaddis, TheLandscape ofHistory: How Historians Map thePast (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).             : James C.Scott, Seeing Like aState: How Certain Schemes toImprove theHuman Condition Have Failed (New Haven: Yale Unversity Press, 1998);  ,   .          (:  , 2005).].

, ,    ,       .      -    .  ,  ,      ,     ,            .     ⠫ ,    [   ]        []         [43 - Niccol? Machiavelli, ThePrince, translated by Harvey C.Mansfield, second edition (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1998), p. 34;  , , :  ,      . ,  .. (: , 2002), . 357.].

          ,   ,    [44 -  : Carl vonClausewitz, On War, edited and translated by Michael Howard andPeter Paret (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976).  ,   (:   , 1934).].    ,  ,      .   ,   ,  ,     ,        .    ,           .        ,    . -   .

  , ,   ,    ,      ?    ,       ,   ,        .       ,       .     ,   ,           .

, ,       .             ,         [45 - Donald Rumsfeld, Known andUnknown: AMemoir (New York: Penguin, 2011), p. xiii  xiv.]   ,    ,           .      ,   컠    ,          .

     ,         . ,    , ,   ,   ,   . ,     ,    , ,  ,    .        ,  ,   ,  ,     ,    .    .


XII

,     ,     ,  -  :       ,   ,    .    ,      ,  ,   ,   ,        .             , ,   ,     2004    .

     ,  ,       480  ..,     :      ,     .     :  ,       ,   ,         ,  ,           ,   .     .

  ,  ,    .           : ,    ,    .                ,    ,   .  ,    ( )        ,       ?

       ,  ,        ,      [46 -       : Elizabeth Longford, Wellington (London: Abacus, 2001), p. 1617.  2].                   ,     ,    .   ,         ,     ,      ,     .             ?

  ,       ,     ,         :     ,  ,   ,    ,     . ,    ,       ,   .         .      ,     :           ,   .

   -   ,      ,  ? ,      ,       :   ,  ,    ,   ,        ,   .  ,     ,      ,    . ,      .

        ,        .              .      ,    .    ,     . ,              ,     ,      .

 ,    ,       .          ,          :     .   ,  ,    .           ,    , ,  ,           , , ,        ,        .




 2

 


       ,  -  ,   , ,         .   ,   ,    ,     .      ,  -          .           :  ,       .        ,          -   [47 - Victor Davis Hanson, AWar Like No Other: How theAthenians andSpartans Fought thePeloponnesian War (New York: Random House, 2005), p. 66.].

 ,    - ,      457 ..     .  ,  - ,   ,   :      ,   ,       ,           .     ,      ,           ,        ,   .            ,  ,    ,    ,         .

,   ,        :  ,     , , ,   ,   ,     .                           ,    .       .        .     :         ,     :      [48 -        ;   : Robert B.Strassler, ed., TheLandmark Thucydides: AComprehensive Guide to thePeloponnesian War, a revised version of theRichard Crawley translation (New York: Simon andSchuster, 1996), 1:8993; ,  (: , 1981), 1:8993 [  Thucydides/,      ,    ]. . : Brent L.Sterling, Do Good Fences Make Good Neighbors? What History Teaches Us About Strategic Barriers andInternational Security (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2009), p. 1516; David L.Berkey, Why Fortifications Endure: ACase Study of theWalls ofAthens During theClassical Period, inVictor Davis Hanson, ed., Makers ofAncient Strategy: From thePersian Wars to theFall ofRome (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010), p. 6063.    : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, translated byJohn Dryden (New York: Modern Library, 1992), p. 191193; ,   3-., . 1,  .. (:   , 1961), . 206.].

,  ,    ,   :       ,      ?  ,       ,     , ,      .     ,        ,    ,     .    ,   ,       [49 - Victor Davis Hanson, TheSavior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost  from Ancient Greece toIraq (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), p. 3334.].

 , ,    .    ,      ,     ,       ,      .        :         .     ,    ,      - .      ,        [50 - Donald Kagan, Pericles ofAthens and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Free Press, 1991), p. 45.].         .         ,    .


I

,      ,   .    ,        ,    :     ();     ,      .     ,       .      ,     .   490 ..   ,     .     ,   -    (   ),     .  ,  ,       .     ,   ,           [51 - , 1:18.  , .:, 1:10; , 6:107108.].

    ,         .              ,         .      ,   .        :       .   ,             ,     ,     ,   ,   [52 - Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 1822, 29.].

 ,       :       [53 -               (   1805.).         : , 1:143.].         :       .    ,    .               [54 -        . : Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 1012.].


II

 ,    ,     431404 ..,             :       . , ,   ,  .       ,   .  ,  -     , ,    ,   ,      ,     :   ,  .  ,  ,      ,          ( -           )[55 - , 1:2122.  . ...].

        ,      ;     .         ,       .     ;   ,     ,     . ,          ,  ,   ,  - ,  ,  ,        ,     ,      .   ,     .

      ,  , : , ,   ,  ,          .     ,  蠫?      ,       .         ,        .       ,      :  ,            ,  , .

    ,     ,   . ,          (      ), ,    ,    ,   ,    ;   ,          [56 - Kagan, Pericles, p. 10.    ᠫ, , ,           .].


III

     :     ,       .   ,    ,    ,       :       ,              .     ,   ,    ,      .          ,     .

    ,     ,        .         .  : ,   ;   ,    ,          ,   .   ,     ,  ,     ,     .              ,     .   ,   - ,    - ,      ,      .            ,      .

, ,   ,   : ,  ,     ,   .         ,       ,    .    ; , ,    ,       [57 - , 1:8992. . : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, p. 145; ,  , . 1, . 158.].      , ,  .


IV

   479478 ..,       ,    .    ,     .  ,    ,   ,            :      .  ,     .  , ,   ,            .

   :       ?      ⻠ ,  ,     - ,         .       ,   ,      ,   ,      .           ,    .   .

  ,     ,    .       ,    ;           ,  . ,  ,          ,   .       ,        .

 ,     ,    .    : 470 ..   ,       ,   ,            .       ,     ,           .  ,   ,      ,     [58 - Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 3436.].


V

      ,  ,       .             ;       ,  ,  ,  ,    ,   ,        ,    ,      ,         [59 -     : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, p. 182212; ,  , . 1, . 196224,       .].                    ,  .

     ,   -        .     .       ,     ( )  490 ..,   (  )  479 ..         :  ,       [60 - Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 18.].   450-  .. ,     ,     ,           .     ,     ,   ,  .

    :          ,           .         ;       .           ,             ,    . ,     ,    ,       .  ,    ,  ,       ,     ,      ,       .   ,    ,                ,   [61 - Hanson, AWar Like No Other, p. 3845.    .:, 2:13, p. 98.].

        .    ,      , , ,           ,       :    .      , ,    ,       (    ,     ),               .           (, ,       )        (         )[62 - Hanson, AWar Like No Other, p. 23639, 24647; Kagan, Pericles, p. 66.       John R.Hale, Lords of theSea: TheEpic Story of theAthenian Navy and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Penguin, 2009).]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=63575558)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


.      -   : www.usnwc.edu/Faculty-and-Departments/Academic-Departments/Strategy-and-Policy-Department.        www.grandstrategy.yale.edu/background; . : Linda Kulman, Teaching Common Sense: TheGrand Strategy Program atYale University (Westport, Connecticut: Prospecta Press, 2016).




2


    ,     .   :         .     .     Strategies ofContainment (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005),    : John Lewis Gaddis, Grand Strategies in theCold War, inMelvyn P.Leffler andOdd Arne Westad, TheCambridge History of theCold War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010), vol. 2, p. 121.




3


                      .  1




4


         ,              . . .




5


Herodotus, TheHistory, Book VII: 156.     : Herodotus, TheHistory. Translated by David Grene (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1987), p. 466490.     .:Robert Kaplan, A Historian For Our Time, TheAtlantic, January, 2007.




6


Michael Ignatieff, Isaiah Berlin: ALife (New York: Metropolitan Books, 1998)   .    p. 173,  .: Ramin Jahanbegloo, Conversations with Isaiah Berlin, 2nd ed. (London: Halban, 1992), p. 188189, Isaiah Berlin, Enlightening: Letters 19461960, edited by Henry Hardy andJennifer Holmes (London, Pimlico, 2011), p. 31n.    : C.M.Bowra, The Fox and theHedgehog, TheClassical Quarterly, 34 (January-April, 1940), 2629.




7


          : Stephen Jay Gould, TheHedgehog, theFox, and theMagisters Pox: Mending theGap between Science and theHumanities (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2011), p. 18.




8


Isaiah Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, edited by Henry Hardy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013), p. 91.    ,      ,       ,  2011.       : Joseph Carlsmith, The Bed, theMap, and theButterfly: Isaiah Berlins Grand Strategy ofGrand Strategy, http://berlin.wolf.ox.ac.uk/lists/onib/carlsmith.pdf.




9


Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 23, 90;  ,   ,  ,  .  (:   , 2001), . 183184, 268.




10


A.N.Wilson, Tolstoy: ABiography (New York: Norton, 1988), p. 506517.




11


Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. xv  xvi.




12


Herodotus, I: 12, p. 38.




13


Ibid., VII: 8, 10, p. 469, 472. . : Tom Holland, Persian Fire: TheFirst World Empire and theBattle for theWest (New York: Doubleday, 2005), p. 238.




14


Herodotus, VII: 8, 2224, p. 469, 47879; Holland, Persian Fire, p. 212214.




15


       .:Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: AHistory (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 22;  , : , ,  (:  , 2017), . 34.




16


,  .     ,    .




17


Philip E.Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005),  pp. xi, 7375, 118, 12829. ,  ,   Dan Gardner, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next toWorthless, andYou Can Do Better (New York: Dutton, 2011).  ,   ,      Superforecasting: TheArt andScience ofPrediction (New York: Crown, 2015).




18


Herodotus, VII:101, 10826, p. 502, 50510.




19


John R.Hale, Lords of theSea: TheEpic Story of theAthenian Navy and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Penguin, 2009), p. 3639, 5574; Barry Strauss, TheBattle ofSalamis: TheNaval Encounter That Saved Greece andWestern Civilization (New York: Simon andSchuster, 2005).




20


Aeschylus, ThePersians, lines 81920, Seth G.Benardete translation (Seth G.Benardete) (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1956), p. 77; , , , ,  .. (: , 1978), 820.  ,  , .:Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, translated by John Dryden (New York: Modern Library, 1992), p. 144; ,   3-., . 1,  .. (:   , 1961), . 157.




21


Victor Parker, Herodotus Use ofAeschylus Persae as aSource for theBattle ofSalamis, Symbolae Osloenses: Norwegian Journal ofGreek andLatin Studies, 82:1, 229.




22


Herodotus, VII: 8, p. 469.




23


     ,   : Victor Davis Hanson, TheSavior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost from Ancient Greece toIraq (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), p. 11.




24


Herodotus, VII: 3839, p. 48384.




25


F.Scott Fitzgerald, The Crack-Up, Esquire, February, 1936;   , ,   ,     (: , 2019), c. 228234.




26


Jeffrey Meyers, Scott Fitzgerald: ABiography (New York: HarperCollins, 1994), p. 26165, 33236.




27


    ,        ,       ,      .




28


          (1958),   (1972) 蠫   (1988): Isaiah Berlin, TheProper Study ofMankind, p. 1011, 239, 294 and302;  ,  .  (:   , 2001), . 180;  ,   .   (: +, 2002), . 327.        .




29


Jahanbegloo, Conversations with Isaiah Berlin, p. 188189. . : Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 101,       .




30


,     ,   .     : Carlsmith, The Bed, theMap, and theButterfly.




31


. : Anthony Lane, House Divided, TheNew Yorker, November 19, 2012.




32


IMDb (2012): www.imdb.com/title/tt0443272/quotes.




33


      : Michael Burlingame, Abraham Lincoln: ALife (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008), p. 834.




34


         : John Lewis Gaddis, War, Peace, andEverything: Thoughts on Tolstoy, Cliodynamics: TheJournal ofTheoretical andMathematical History 2 (2011), 4051.




35


Berlin, TheHedgehog and theFox, p. 12; ,   , . 194.




36


Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment, p. 214215; Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast andSlow (New York: Farrar, Strauss andGiroux, 2011), p. 2021,      p. 218220;  ,     (: , 2014), . 3031, 287289.




37


       - (2002),             . ,                    13 1945,        (http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=16602).




38


Homer, TheIliad, translated by Robert Fagles (New York: Penguin, 1990), p. 371; , ,  .. (-: , 2008), . 196. ,     ,       .




39


        ,        2013,   : Christopher R.Howell, The Story ofGrand Strategy: TheHistory of anIdea and theSource of its Confusion, p. 2. . : Freedman, Strategy, p. 37; , , . 1519.




40


    .:Cawardine, Lincoln, p. 410; Fred Kaplan, Lincoln: TheBiography of aWriter (New York: HarperCollins, 2008).    -       .




41


Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown, 1979), p. 54;  ,   , . 1 (: , 2020), . 69.




42


.:Michael Billig, Learn toWrite Badly: How toSucceed in theSocial Sciences (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013).            : John Lewis Gaddis, TheLandscape ofHistory: How Historians Map thePast (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002).             : James C.Scott, Seeing Like aState: How Certain Schemes toImprove theHuman Condition Have Failed (New Haven: Yale Unversity Press, 1998);  ,   .          (:  , 2005).




43


Niccol? Machiavelli, ThePrince, translated by Harvey C.Mansfield, second edition (Chicago: University ofChicago Press, 1998), p. 34;  , , :  ,      . ,  .. (: , 2002), . 357.




44


 : Carl vonClausewitz, On War, edited and translated by Michael Howard andPeter Paret (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976).  ,   (:   , 1934).




45


Donald Rumsfeld, Known andUnknown: AMemoir (New York: Penguin, 2011), p. xiii  xiv.




46


      : Elizabeth Longford, Wellington (London: Abacus, 2001), p. 1617.  2




47


Victor Davis Hanson, AWar Like No Other: How theAthenians andSpartans Fought thePeloponnesian War (New York: Random House, 2005), p. 66.




48


       ;   : Robert B.Strassler, ed., TheLandmark Thucydides: AComprehensive Guide to thePeloponnesian War, a revised version of theRichard Crawley translation (New York: Simon andSchuster, 1996), 1:8993; ,  (: , 1981), 1:8993 [  Thucydides/,      ,    ]. . : Brent L.Sterling, Do Good Fences Make Good Neighbors? What History Teaches Us About Strategic Barriers andInternational Security (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2009), p. 1516; David L.Berkey, Why Fortifications Endure: ACase Study of theWalls ofAthens During theClassical Period, inVictor Davis Hanson, ed., Makers ofAncient Strategy: From thePersian Wars to theFall ofRome (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010), p. 6063.    : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, translated byJohn Dryden (New York: Modern Library, 1992), p. 191193; ,   3-., . 1,  .. (:   , 1961), . 206.




49


Victor Davis Hanson, TheSavior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars That Were Lost  from Ancient Greece toIraq (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013), p. 3334.




50


Donald Kagan, Pericles ofAthens and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Free Press, 1991), p. 45.




51


, 1:18.  , .:, 1:10; , 6:107108.




52


Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 1822, 29.




53


              (   1805.).         : , 1:143.




54


       . : Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 1012.




55


, 1:2122.  . ...




56


Kagan, Pericles, p. 10.    ᠫ, , ,           .




57


, 1:8992. . : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, p. 145; ,  , . 1, . 158.




58


Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 3436.




59


    : Plutarch, Lives of theNoble Grecians andRomans, p. 182212; ,  , . 1, . 196224,       .




60


Hanson, TheSavior Generals, p. 18.




61


Hanson, AWar Like No Other, p. 3845.    .:, 2:13, p. 98.




62


Hanson, AWar Like No Other, p. 23639, 24647; Kagan, Pericles, p. 66.       John R.Hale, Lords of theSea: TheEpic Story of theAthenian Navy and theBirth ofDemocracy (New York: Penguin, 2009).


