 .          
 


  ,     ,       .     ,    ?    ,    ?     ,      ,  頖  .      15        ,    . ,      ,       ,      ,   ,      ,  ,   -       .     ,              .      ,  -,   .





 

 .          



 . 

 . 

  . 

  . 

 . , . 

  . 

    . 



2020 by David J. Hand

This edition published by arrangement with the Science Factory, Louisa Pritchard Associates and The Van Lear Agency LLC.

   , , .   , 2021



  .           () .  ,  ,   ,  ,   ,          .  ,   ,     ,  ,          ,      ,   ,       .

,      ,  ,   ,        () ,        ,    .


?


 










   .  ,              ,       ,   ,     .    ,   ,     -,   .      .   ,    . ,        -    ,   ,  ,     .     ,    ,    .

        ,       ,   .    ,        ,    .  ,     .   ,          ,   .   ,   ,          ,  ,               ,    ,     ,       .

      ,    .   ,    , ,    ,    ,    .    ,        . ,    ,            ,    ࠖ         ,      .

   ,      ,     ,    ,  ,        .       ,    .  ,  ,       ,           .     Princeton University Press           . ,        ,      .       .



 , 




 I

 

  





 1

 

 ,    





 


-        ,  -        15.       ,     .

  ,    .     ,   .

,      ,  .

 !  .    .

          ,     .

     100000.   500    ,           .  ,      堖 ,  1999.    99 .       2019.   ,        .           [1 - https://blog.uvahealth.com/2019/01/30/measles-outbreaks/ (https://blog.uvahealth.com/2019/01/30/measles-outbreaks/), accessed 16 April 2019.].      .      2019.    21000[2 - http://outbreaknewstoday.com/measles-outbreak-ukraine-21000-cases-2019/ (http://outbreaknewstoday.com/measles-outbreak-ukraine-21000-cases-2019/), accessed 16 April 2019.].    2017.   25863 ,   2018.   82000[3 - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-could-see-large-amount-of-measles-outbreaks-health-experts/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-could-see-large-amount-of-measles-outbreaks-health-experts/), accessed 16 April 2019.].  1 2016.    2017.    4000    18  .

  ,  ,         .     ,    .

  ,    .     ,    . , ,   ,  ,     ,   .      ,    ,              .

 ,        蠖 ,       ,      ,               ,        .

  ,    ?    ,    .

,    ,   - ,    ,   .    ,      , ,    .

          .     ,    ,     ,       .  ,     .

       , , 젖  .  27%      ,       -       .     , -      .       ,           ,     ,     .         ,      ,  ,             .      ,    .      :  ,       10   ,  .

      :    ,   ,          ,   . ,      ,       - ,          .

  蠖 ,      .      , ,     ,  ,    .    ,     ,   ,      .    ,   ,    ,  .    ,  ,         ,          .         ,     .           (,   ,         ).       ,      .

    ,    ,          ,   DD- x.    15  DD-,    ,     .    ,     ,  ,     .  ,         DD-⠖       ,      ,   . ,   ,    DD-                .  DD-,   ,      ,    10     .      ,        ,                    .

      .          .            ,           40.    TARN          .           200 ,    93%     ,     ,   . ,              .

                 :  165559    19289   [4 - E.M. Mirkes, T. J. Coats, J. Levesley, and A. N. Gorban, Handling missing data in large healthcare dataset: A case study of unknown trauma outcomes. Computers in Biology and Medicine 75 (2016): 203-16.].     ,       30  .  , 30-      11% .        DD- 1: ,    ,   .  ,  ,      - ,    ,  .

, , :  ,    146270 ,    ,          .   , 146270         .     ,  ,    ,  .

      ? , 19289      .   ,       ,         - ?  ,  146270               .  , ,     ,          ,              .

   ,  : ,   146270        ,  19289            .     ,      ,     젖        .   ,       ,   .         ,   11%  .

  ,            . -,       ,  -,           .          ,     .        ,  :     ,  .   ,          ,  , ,   :     ,  ,  ,     .  ,    ,  ,    ,      ,  ,   .   ,    ,         :       .  .

    TARN, , ,    . ,  19289      ,       30.            30  ,    ,         .       ,        .

     ,        . ,            ,    .  ,          ?         ,  ,     ,    .

     ,      .       ,       , ,  ,   .   ,  , -    ,    ,              .   ,        ,    :      ?,  ,  100%   ,      ,       .

      .  ,     TARN ,      .  ,        ,      .  ,  ,     ,   ,  .

         DD- 2: ,     ,   .

        .     ,  ,  ,      .        .          .     ,     ,    ,   ,     GPS      .

!  ,  ,   ,  ,   .        ,      ,   ,              .    ,          ,  ,       .       ,     .           TARN,    ,    .     .

       .    2012.  ,   [5 - https://www.livescience.com/24380-hurricane-sandy-status-data.html (https://www.livescience.com/24380-hurricane-sandy-status-data.html).],      .                  ,    $75     200   .   24  (           )      -  .  ,                .

       .      ,         ,     . ,           ,      .    27  1 2012.    20   . ,    ,               ,          .

  -   ,                ,    -.   ,    -    ?      ,  ,             -.  ,   -     ,    ,    ,   ,            ,   .

       .       -  ,            ,     .           .

    ,    ,  -  ,    ,    .        ,      .

-              ,   ,     :   ;   ,   - ,    .     堖 ,     ,     [6 - D. Rumsfeld, Department of Defense News Briefing, 12 February 2002.].         ,     . ,   ,       .

       .      ,       .   ,       ,    ,      ;  -    ;     ; ,   ,       ,    ,    ,   ,    .  ,    ,     ,  ,    .




  ,     ?


    ,     ,    ,        , ,   .         .        .           .       ,       ,   ,       , ,     .  ,     .       ,   ,     .

    .  ,            ,    ,   ,       .     .

   ?     ,         . ,    ,     , , ,   ,   ,      .    , , ,      .      ,     ?        ?  ,   ,   .      ,      DD- 7: ,   .

 ,  ,     ,   , ,     ,    - ,     .    ,     젖   ,   ,    ,      .     DD- 6: ,    .

 ,        .          , ,  ,   , ,        .      ,    ,      ?       ,    ?     ?         ,          ?   ,      ,   ?             ,         ,    . ( ,   ,    ,    ,   ,   ,  .)

    ,  ,           . , ,  .       .           .        , ,  ,   ,         .             ,       (DD- 10:    ).     ,   -  ,     ,   ,    .      ,  ,     .        ,  ,     .

         .      , ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  .     ,        17.       ? -  ?

 ,  ,             ,      .       .           ,    (,   ).      DD- 3:  . , ,       ,       DD- 4: .      ,          .

頖  ,    ,    ,     .          . ?!   .    ?  ,      ,  ,      ,     .       ,  ,     .

   ,    -  -   ,   .       , ,  , ,     ,   ,              .           堖    .  ,   ,   ,     ( ,    ):       ,    ,     .

         .      ,     .        ,     .      ,     ,     ,    .  ,   ,    ,      ,      ,       ,     .        DD- 15:     .

       - xkcd.com (http://xkcd.com/),     .  :   ,    .     :     ,       .    : ,  ,   : ,   [7 - http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636 (http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636), accessed 31 July 2018.].

  ,     ,    ,     ,    ,    ,       .      - . ,     ,       .    ,      ,          . ,     ,          .       ,     , ,     ,        .  ,   -  ,  ,   ,    .       ,   ,  ,        ,        .             ,    DD- 5:   .

     ,     . ,    蠖        ,    ,          ,   ,   ,     .         ,           10.




   ,      


    ,                 .

28 1986.  73-      15   Challenger         -.    -       ,   19    .     .

   ,     NASA   ,      .    :     ,       22-  23-,   25-,     26.          ,     .    ,  ,      .       ,      .

   27       Morton Thiokol,   ,  NASA           .          Morton Thiokol         .    Morton Thiokol   ,         .

             6,           .     45    11  .      0,1,        ,    1,5      - 0,6.

   Morton Thiokol  ,                 ,      0,6    1,4.    , - Morton Thiokol, ,              53 ?F ( 12 ?C).      ,         .    Morton Thiokol       .

  58,79             .      ,   ,       .         ,     ,     ,     ,    .  64-      ,    9     Challenger,       [8 - https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/explode.html (https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/explode.html).].

      ,       .   ,     ,    젖        .     .

 ,       ,  -      .       ,       ,    , ,  ,        Columbia      ?   , ,          , 27,  ,   Challenger     :         .               .   ,     ?   ,       ,   ,          ,       28    .

      .          .        :  .

  ,     ,    ,     ,      ,    ,    (  DD- 3:  ,   DD- 2: ,     ,   ).  . 146   :         ,         ,           [9 - https://xkcd.com/552/ (https://xkcd.com/552/);    . https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8535.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8535.0).].        :        .    ,        .

   :    [     ]                    53  75 ?F [ 12  24 ?C}.  ,           ,   .        ,     -    ,    .  ,     ,    .      ,      ,       ,       ,    .     , ,   ,     , ,    :   ,      .          31 ?F   0 ?C.

       :         ,        ,     65 ?F [18 ?C] ( ).

     .  .1,   ,    .               . ,  53 ?F        젖      ,   75 ?F,     ,    ,      .  ,             .

       ,        ,     ,   .1, b.    .   ,      65 ?F,      ,   4  21 ,     ,   .        ,   .    ,      ,      (DD- 15:     ).

       .

  Challenger, ,    .       ,      ,   Morton Thiokol   11,86%    .         4%  .    ,     -,  ,   .  ,       .    ?




  


   ,     ,       .  ,   ,   .       . ,           . -       ;      ,      II ,       .








  2        .   9     ,     .     ,             .       .  ,    ,              ,   . ,        , ,     ,           .     ,          (DD- 13:   ).       ,     .

   ,   ,  . ,         ,        .       ,    .        .  ,      ,    .              TARN.  , ,       ,       ,     ,      .

             .   9  ,              (DD- 14:    )        .

    ,     ,      9.        ,      .




  


  ,   .       ,        ,           .  ,         :   ?

      ,      ,     ?      Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC  1960.,      2008.     150  ,    71䠖  ,       .

    ,     ?      ,         ,     ?

   ?    ,       ,      ,          . ,   ,  ,        ,        ,         ,      蠖         .

       .      ,    .   ,        .

  1852, 1857  1875.  Arctic Ale      ,   .  ,    ,     1889.,       ,        ,      -     ,         [10 - R. Pattinson, Arctic Ale: History by the Glass, issue 66 (July 2102), https://www.beeradvocate.com/articles/6920/arctic-ale/ (https://www.beeradvocate.com/articles/6920/arctic-ale/), accessed 31 July 2018.].   ,     .

 2007.    1852.     eBay    $299. ,       50,    ,     Allsopp.  ,        ,      .     25-  ,    $304.    ,        ,       .     157      $503300.

        [11 -   ,           .          :            1875.  ?3300,    $4300.].    ,        .    ,  ⠖        ,    .    ,   ,     Challenger,    .  ,   .

   Arctic Ale       . , ,        ,    .     ,          ,       .

     ,     ,   -   . ,      .       ,        , ,   ,         ,     , ,    .       ;   (,   ),   ;      ,    .           (    )     .

      ,  ,  ,  ,     ,        .           DD-.       (, ,        ,     ),      (,    ,    ,   ,  ,      ).   DD-      ,   ,     .    ,    10   DD-:

?DD- 1: ,    ,   ;

?DD- 2: ,     ,   ;

?DD- 3:  ;

?DD- 4: ;

?DD- 5:   ;

?DD- 6: ,    ;

?DD- 7: ,   ;

?DD- 8:   ;

?DD- 9:  ;

?DD- 10:    ;

?DD- 11:     ;

?DD- 12:  ;

?DD- 13:   ;

?DD- 14:    ;

?DD- 15:     .




 2

  

  ,   





    


    .      , ,   . -   .     ,   ,     .

          ,      ,     .     ,        .

,       .

?      .

   , ,    .                 .  2018.     ,    , ,      19289       ,      (  ,       ).   1   ,       .     ,      .      ,    ,      .      ࠖ     ꠖ     .

?     .

          .       ,          .  ,      ,   .  ,      ,     ,     .    ,        ,           .  ,      :        ,       ,             .   1   ,         .  ,    ,     ,   .

  ,        ,         [12 - D. J. Hand, F. Daly, A. D. Lunn, K. J. McConway, and E. Ostrowski, A Handbook of Small Data Sets (London: Chapman and Hall, 1994).],    510   ,          .     20000   ,    ,   ,        ,        .

? .

        .    ,     ,    ,    .     ,    ,    - ,  ,    ,   ,  ,       ,     ,  ,      .       ,  , ,     .    ,         (DD- 6: ,    ),    1.

          ,    ,         .        ,    .




,    


        . -     ,    ,        ,     ,  -    ,   , ,   ,     ,    -  .

   ,     ,       堖 , ,    ,      - .  ,       ,     .    ,       .        ,    ,   (    ),       ,      ,  -   .          .

 ,  ,  [13 - D. J. Hand, Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A181 (2018): 555-605.].       ,     ,       (, ,   ),  ,      .   ,   ,    ,   ,      .. ,        ,          .     ,        ,   .    ,         ,         .          ,         ,  ,           .  ,  ,       ,   ,    .       ,      ,     .

             :    ,      ,       ,     ,     . ,     ,   ,       ,           ,      . ,  ,   ,     ,    .          ,         ,    .

              :    ,  , ,     .           ,       . ,   2014.   2015.    35    Visa[14 - https://www.quora.com/How-many-credit-and-debit-card-transactions-are-there-every-year (https://www.quora.com/How-many-credit-and-debit-card-transactions-are-there-every-year), accessed 24 August 2018.].  ,     ,   , , ,    ,     ,     7080 .      ,          ࠖ    ,        . ,         ,      .     ,      ,    ,     .  ,   ,              . ,   DD- 1: ,    ,   .

  ,       ,        ,   .  ,      ,       ,       DD- 4: .      .                     .  ,    ,     ,    .

 ,     ,      黠      ,          .        ,      ,     ,    ,       .

        .    ,     ,   ,  ,   .            .

   ,     ,        .   , ,    ,   頖    ,     .  ,    ,            -    ࠖ      ,     . ,    ,   ,       ,       .     ,            .  , ,  ,        (  ),    ,     ,           .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=63844901)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


https://blog.uvahealth.com/2019/01/30/measles-outbreaks/ (https://blog.uvahealth.com/2019/01/30/measles-outbreaks/), accessed 16 April 2019.




2


http://outbreaknewstoday.com/measles-outbreak-ukraine-21000-cases-2019/ (http://outbreaknewstoday.com/measles-outbreak-ukraine-21000-cases-2019/), accessed 16 April 2019.




3


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-could-see-large-amount-of-measles-outbreaks-health-experts/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-could-see-large-amount-of-measles-outbreaks-health-experts/), accessed 16 April 2019.




4


E.M. Mirkes, T. J. Coats, J. Levesley, and A. N. Gorban, Handling missing data in large healthcare dataset: A case study of unknown trauma outcomes. Computers in Biology and Medicine 75 (2016): 203-16.




5


https://www.livescience.com/24380-hurricane-sandy-status-data.html (https://www.livescience.com/24380-hurricane-sandy-status-data.html).




6


D. Rumsfeld, Department of Defense News Briefing, 12 February 2002.




7


http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636 (http://archive.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=2636), accessed 31 July 2018.




8


https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/explode.html (https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/explode.html).




9


https://xkcd.com/552/ (https://xkcd.com/552/);    . https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8535.0 (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8535.0).




10


R. Pattinson, Arctic Ale: History by the Glass, issue 66 (July 2102), https://www.beeradvocate.com/articles/6920/arctic-ale/ (https://www.beeradvocate.com/articles/6920/arctic-ale/), accessed 31 July 2018.




11


  ,           .          :            1875.  ?3300,    $4300.




12


D. J. Hand, F. Daly, A. D. Lunn, K. J. McConway, and E. Ostrowski, A Handbook of Small Data Sets (London: Chapman and Hall, 1994).




13


D. J. Hand, Statistical challenges of administrative and transaction data (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A181 (2018): 555-605.




14


https://www.quora.com/How-many-credit-and-debit-card-transactions-are-there-every-year (https://www.quora.com/How-many-credit-and-debit-card-transactions-are-there-every-year), accessed 24 August 2018.


