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  2014.            ,     ,                  , [1 -    Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-economy-2014-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T (https://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-economy-2014-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T).  ,                   2017. (.:https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN (https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN)  https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=US (https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=US),   1 2020.).]. 20 2011. -  . ,     ,  ,   2020.        ,     [2 -  .:    c   : https://www.interfax.ru/russia/186549 (https://www.interfax.ru/russia/186549) (  1 2020.).].        ,   .   2005  2014.       1,92 [3 - .: Trade in Goods with hina    C  : https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) (  1 2020.).]   2008.      [4 -  : Portfolio Holdings of U.S. and Foreign Securities      : https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfhhis01.txt (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfhhis01.txt) (  1 2020.).];     .           [5 - ., .:  .      // . 2014. 16. . 67.],        20082009.,              .          ;  .    [6 - .: Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History? in: National Interest, 1989, No. 16, pp. 318; :  .     . .: , 2004.]  ,      [7 - ., .: Bell, Daniel. The Resumption of History in the New Century in: Bell, Daniel. The End of Ideology. On the Exhaustion of Political Ideas in the Fifties, Cambridge (Ma.), London: Harvard Univ. Press, 2000, pp. xi xxxvi; Kagan, Robert. The Return of History and the End of Dreams, NewYork: Alfred A. Knopf, 2008; Welsh, Jennifer. The Return of History: Conflict, Migration, and Geopolitics in the Twenty-First Century, NewYork: Anansi Press, 2016  ..]   .           1992. (      )     6,8%    2020.[8 - .: Cheng, Jonathan. China Records First Ever Contraction in Quarterly GDP on Coronavirus    The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-report-plunge-in-first-quarter-gdp-11587086697?mod=searchresults_pos1 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-report-plunge-in-first-quarter-gdp-11587086697?mod=searchresults_pos1) (  20 2020.).]      22,5%   [9 -       : https://customs.gov.ru/storage/document/document_statistics_file/2020-08/10/m84z/WEB_UTSA_04.xls (https://customs.gov.ru/storage/document/document_statistics_file/2020-08/10/m84z/WEB_UTSA_04.xls) (  12 2020.).],    ,  ,                         $5[10 -     Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/);     2019.   : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx) (  5 2020.).].

,    . ,          ,          .        ,             84    1,82 [11 -    Worldometers: https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/) (  2 2021.).],    ,  ,               ,      ,                    7,217,9% [12 - 7,2%    2020.           (.:Jennen, Birgit. German Public Deficit to Widen to More Than 7% of GDP This Year    Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/german-public-deficit-to-widen-to-more-than-7-of-gdp-this-year (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/german-public-deficit-to-widen-to-more-than-7-of-gdp-this-year)); 17,9% Ϡ        2019/20         (.:Wessel, David. How worried should you be about the federal deficit and debt?    Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/ (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/)) (  2 2020.).],          .  ,    ,   [13 - .:  .,  . ,   : ,     . .: Corpus, 2020.],     :         75%     610%   [14 -     Marketwatch: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts) (  1 2020.).],           14,5%[15 - .: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update     : https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update (https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update) (  2 2020.).].   ,      (        $2,83,   1,62,   蠖  ?220[16 -         , .  : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL),  : https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200108.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200108.en.html)  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200708.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200708.en.html),  : https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/8-july-2020.pdf (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/8-july-2020.pdf)  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/1-january-2020.pdf (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/1-january-2020.pdf) (  2 2020.).]),   ,     (       00,25%  , 0,1%    0%  [17 -   a CBRates: http://www.cbrates.com/ (http://www.cbrates.com/) (  1 2020.).]),     (       0,4%,        1,5%[18 -    .:https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_hicp.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_hicp.en.html) (  1 2020.),  : Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update.])            .               [19 -     .:Kaplan, Juliana. 14 countries that are paying their workers during quarantine and how they compare to Americas $1,200 stimulus checks   Businessinsider: https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-offering-direct-payments-or-basic-income-in-corona-crisis-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-offering-direct-payments-or-basic-income-in-corona-crisis-2020-4) (  1 2020.).]     ,     [20 -     CARES      $500䠖         (.:Tankersley, Jim etal. The Coronavirus Economy: When Washington Takes Over Business    The NewYork Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/economy/coronavirus-relief-bill.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/economy/coronavirus-relief-bill.html) (  1 2020.).].  ,            ,                   ,       ,      .

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,       2020.,   ,       75 . 16 1945.,       ,                  ,  ,    ,      [21 - .: Rhodes, Richard. The Making of the Atomic Bomb, NewYork: Touchstone Books, 1988, pp. 669678.],            ,       .     ,         [22 - .:  .,  .,  .  :        . , : T  , 2003. . 4354.]    ,          .     : ,    2020.,       .    !       ,    .                 ,      ,                  ,  ,       ,            .

,   , ,  ,    1990- .     ,    ,   ,       ,      .    蠖    頖    ,    [23 -  ,  . ,   . ,      . :    ,        (.:http://magazine.hrm.ru/db/hrm/Reich_Robert/glossary.html (http://magazine.hrm.ru/db/hrm/Reich_Robert/glossary.html) (  1 2020.).].           .   1996.               [24 - . c       1 1997.   Areppim: https://stats.areppim.com/listes/list_billionairesx96xwor.htm (https://stats.areppim.com/listes/list_billionairesx96xwor.html) (  1 2020.).].     1990- .        1,75,  堖  1,8,  蠖  2,3,   蠖  2,5 [25 -      Tradingeconomics: https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/stock-market), https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/stock-market), https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/stock-market)  https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/stock-market) (  5 2020.).].   1997.      :   1996.   , , ,        $93,      -   $12,1,       11%    [26 - .: Sharma, Shalendra. The Asial Financial Crisis: Crisis, Reform and Recovery, Manchester: Manchester Univ. Press, 2003, p. 12.].       ,        $117[27 - .: Lacayo, Richard. IMF to the Rescue in: Time, 1997, December 8, p. 23.].        1998-     2001.     ,         . ,         [28 -    .:Williamson, John. Implications of the East Asian Crisis for Debt Management   Institute for International Economics: https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/implications-east-asian-crisis-debt-management (https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/implications-east-asian-crisis-debt-management) (  5 2020.).],      ,         .              .

   ,        ,    ,         .  ,   ,       ,     :           ,      ,         .          [29 -          228,9%,    247,3% (.:Stock Market Performance by President   Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president (https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president) (  1 2020.).].  19982008.,      , ,  , ,  , ,    蠖         ,           ,       10 ( $310  $3,3)  [30 -      : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD)    (  1 2020.).].   2000- .      ,          ,     [31 -  .:Wolf, artin. Fixing Global Finance, Baltimore (Md.), London: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 2008, . 112134.] (             2008.  61,2%[32 -  : Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities, NewYork: Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork, April 2017, exibit 2, p. 6.]).        ,     (    )                  .       ,      ,            ,    ,       .

,       ,    .              젖       ,        ,                .        ,  ,      ,   ,       (      , ,       ). ,      ,         .         ,     ࠖ    ,  , ,     XVIIIXX.   -        ,        .          , ,     . ,       ࠖ   ,   ,  [33 - Aron, Raymond. 18 Lectures on Industrial Society, London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 1968, p. 42.],   ,     ,  ,      . C          ;        [34 -  .: .   . .: , 2000.],  ,        .  , ,       ,     ,            ,         .




 

 


1970.  ,      , ,     100.     ,     trente glorieuses ( 30-);          1960-,         91  70%[35 - .: Historical Highest Marginal Income Tax Rates 1913 to 2020    Tax Policy Center: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highest-marginal-income-tax-rates (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/historical-highest-marginal-income-tax-rates) (  7 2020.).],       젖  Medicare  Food Stamps[36 -      .     ; edicare      1965.         (. XVIII),    ,   Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,   Food Stamps Act 31 1964.  2019.     97 ,       $704 (.:Budget Basics: Medicare    : https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/medicare (https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/medicare)  Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Costs       : https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-7.pdf (https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-7.pdf) (  21 2020.).].       1960- .  4,6%[37 - .: Payne, Cameron. Economic Revival of West Germany in the 1950s and 1960s   E-International Relations: https://www.e-ir.info/2011/08/07/economic-revival-of-west-germany-in-the-1950s-and-1960s/ (https://www.e-ir.info/2011/08/07/economic-revival-of-west-germany-in-the-1950s-and-1960s/) (  22 2020.).],   4,4%[38 -  : Economic Report of the President. Transmitted to the Congress February 2010, Washington (DC): United States Government Printing Office, 2010, table B-4, p. 333.];     ,     3,5%  1969-[39 - .: Economic Report of the President 2010, table B-42, p. 380.],     - :         1,98%,    蠖  0,53%  [40 -      : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUN74TTFRA156S (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUN74TTFRA156S)  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTDEQ156S (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTDEQ156S) (  7 2020.).].     10   60,4%  ,  53,2%     50,2%    (   )[41 -  : Economic Report of the President. Transmitted to the Congress February 2005, Washington (DC): United States Government Printing Office, 2005, table B-47, p. 266.],       S&P500   49%[42 - .: Economic Report of the President 2005, table B-95, p. 320.].            : 1950  1973.        2,2%,    蠖 2,5%,  蠖 4,0%,  蠖 4,9%,   蠖 5,0%[43 - .: Maddison, Angus. Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long-Run Comparative View, Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1991, table 3.1, p. 49.].

   , ,    ,              1970-. ,    ,  ,      1960- .,    ,     ,         (   )  (  )   .  1933.,   .      ,      .  1943.          26,9%  ( :  2009.    9,8% [44 - .: US Budget Deficit by Year Compared to GDP, Debt Increase, and Events    The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306 (https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306) (  7 2020.).]).  1947-    ໠      ,        $130       (19481951.)    3%    [45 - .: DeLong, Bradford and Eichengreen, Barry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Eichengreen). The Marshall Plan: Historys Most Successful Structiral Adjustment Program : Dornbusch, Rudiger (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudi_Dornbusch); Nolling, Wilhelm and Layard, Richard (eds.) Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today, Cambridge (Ma.), London: MIT Press, 1993, pp. 189230.].   1960-          , -    :        $25,4 ($152   ),  4,5%  1961.[46 - .: Knapp, Alex. Apollo 11s 50th Anniversary: The Facts And Figures Behind The $152 Billion Moon Landing    Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2019/07/20/apollo-11-facts-figures-business/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2019/07/20/apollo-11-facts-figures-business/) (  7 2020.).]    1957.     ,  ,       ,          . ,    ,        ,         ,   1944. -[47 - .: Helleiner, Eric. States and the Reemergence of Global Finance: From Bretton Woods to the 1990s, Ithaca (NY), London: Cornell Univ. Press, 1994, . 5172.]       ;              200[48 - .: Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth. This Time is Different. Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton (NJ): Princeton Univ. Press, 2009, figure 10.1, p. 156.].

  ,        ,       ,       ,  .     19301936.[49 - .: Keynes, John. A Treatise of Money, in 2 vols., NewYork, London: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1930  Keynes, John. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, NewYork, London: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1936.]    ,   ,  ,                          [50 -  .:Dimand, Robert. The Origins of the Keynesian Revolution, Cheltenham (UK), Northampton (Ma.): Edward Elgar, 1988, pp. 96111   .   . 18831946: , ,  . .:    , 2005. . 2. . 81124.].      ,    (            ),          (  )    .             ,        (    19741975  1982.           1,9  2,5%[51 - .: Economic Report of the President. Transmitted to the Congress February 1990, Washington (DC): United States Government Printing Office, 1990, table C-5, p. 301.])         ,     ( 19121968.    2,04  32,98%  ,  9,24  43,55%     11,29  23,58%  [52 - .: Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban and Roser, Max. Government Spending    Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/government-spending (https://ourworldindata.org/government-spending) (c  13 2020.).]).    ,               .

 ,    ,         .              (real money),      (fiat money).  ,        (, ,    ,        1914.[53 - .: Seaby, Peter. The Story of British Coinage, London: Sprink & Son Publishers, 1985, p. 188.],      1933.[54 -         .:How the US Government Seized All Citizens Gold in 1930s   The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-seized-all-citizens-gold-in-1930s-138467 (https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-seized-all-citizens-gold-in-1930s-138467) (c  17 2020.).]), ,       ,              .   I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of (five, ten, twenty) pounds,       ,    ,       ,        .      19001920- .       :    ,           .  ,                  ,            (     1914.   1917.  1680 )[55 -  .:rabbe, Leland. The International Gold Standard and U.S. Monetary Policy from World War I to the New Deal : Federal Reserve Bulletin, Vol. 75, 6, June 1989, p. 425.].      1922.          (, ,      1925.).         ,     .    ,                     [56 -    . : Eichengreen, Barry an Temin, Peter. The Gold Standard and the Great Depression: NBER Working Paper No. 6060, 1997     : http://web.mit.edu/14.71/www/Eichengreen%20Temin%20The%20Gold%20Standard.pdf (https://clck.ru/TyJXK) (c  18 2020.).].   ,         ,     ,           ,    .

, -          (    )    ( ,       19171920.,      ,      ,     [57 -  .:rabbe, Leland. The International Gold Standard and U.S. Monetary Policy, p. 426.]).    -        ,    ,             .            ,       1%     .            (     ,    1949  1969.  ,   젖      1961  1969.[58 - .: Bordo, Michael. The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview : Bordo, Michael and Eichengreen, Barry (eds.) A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, Chicago (Il.), London, Univ. of Chicago Press, 1993, table 1.2, pp. 2324.]).                  $35   .         1968.,     -     (Gold Pool)        ,           - [59 - .: Garber, Peter. The Collapse of the Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System : Bordo, Michael and Eichengreen, Barry (eds.) A Retrospective of the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for the International Monerary Reform, Chicago (Il.): Univ. of Chicago Press, 1993, . 464.].         ,                .  , -                           [60 -  .:Dormael, Armand van. Bretton Woods: Birth of a Monetary System, Houndmills, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1978, pp. 286303.],     .       (      bancor)         1944.[61 - .: Steil, Benn. The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order, Princeton (NJ): Princeton Univ. Press, 2013, pp. 143144   .   . 18831946: , ,  . .:    , 2005. . 2. . 386412.]

       .  , ,    ,         ,       . ࠖ  ,             ,    ,        . , ,         ,       . , ,    19501960- .       0,61% [62 -  : Economic Report of the President. Transmitted to the Congress February 1990, table -76, p. 383.],           122,5%   1945      40%    1 1969-[63 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -76, p. 383.].     (   )     .             ,            (        )  , ,   ,   .          ,      :    1944  1970.          ,         ,              ࠖ  1950, 1953  1959.[64 - .: Economic Report of the President 1990, table -102, p. 410.]     -           ,       1950- .

        ࠖ    .      ,    ,      ,       :        1951  1970.  2,41%,     1956  1970.    堖 2,33%[65 - .  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -62, p. 364;  : Average inflation Germany (CPI), by year   Inflation.eu: (http://inflation.eu/)https://www.inflation.eu/en/inflation-rates/germany/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-germany.aspx (https://www.inflation.eu/en/inflation-rates/germany/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-germany.aspx) (  18 2020.).].          ,         :      treasuries       1,97 ,      Bunds 0,94 . .[66 - .:  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -71, p. 376;  : Mussa, Michael. Monetary Policy in Feldstein, Martin (ed.) American Economic Policy in the 1980s, Chicago, London: Univ. of Chicago Press, 1994, p. 87.];  ,         ( , ,   ).     , ,         .          ,     69%    1970.[67 - .: Taylor, Bryan. The Growth of the American Stock Market   Global financial data: http://globalfinancialdata.com/the-growth-of-the-american-stock-market/ (http://globalfinancialdata.com/the-growth-of-the-american-stock-market/) (  18 2020.).]    50%      1972.[68 - .: Taylor, Bryan. Global Stock Markets Struggle for Survival   Global financial data: https://globalfinancialdata.com/global-stock-markets-struggle-for-survival (https://globalfinancialdata.com/global-stock-markets-struggle-for-survival) (  18 2020.).]

 ,    ,       .     ,    ,              .        ,                  頖 , ,    .           ,     -                 ,                   ,              .   1960- .     ,      [69 - .: Vogel, Ezra. Japan as Number 1: Lessons for America, NewYork: Harper Colophon Books, 1980, p. 1315.],        (         ultimate industrial society[70 - .: Sakaiya, Taichi. What is Japan? Contradictions and Transformations, Tokyo, NewYork: Kodansha International, 1995, . 233.]).          ,      :   ,                 .

 ,     ,  1970.  ,        .      ;       ,     .   ,                :    1960-     ,     ,   ,   ,       ( 1968.    $24,5,    16%            [71 -  : hronology of Major Fiscal and Monetary Policies (19601977), Washington (DC): United States Congress, Committee on the Budget, 1979, Addendum, p. 39  Economic Report of the President 2010, table B-78, p. 423.] [      $850   [72 - .: Harrington, John and Suneson, Grant. What Were 13 Most Expensive Wars in U.S. History?    USA Today: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/13/cost-of-war-13-most-expensive-wars-in-us-history/39556983/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/13/cost-of-war-13-most-expensive-wars-in-us-history/39556983/) (  17 2020.).] ]).   , - ,      ,       ,    ,    ࠖ             ,       . ,        ,      ,      .           1960.,        $40  ,                1964.[73 - .: Chown, John. A History of Monetary Unions, London. NewYork: Routledge, 2003, . 194.]     1960-     :  1968.     $40,3  ,    1971- $40,95,        17%[74 -    Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart (https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart) (  18 2020.).].             ࠖ  ,      ,  ,        . ,    1971.      $70   ,      $12[75 - .: Yarbrough, Robert and Yarbrough, Beth. The World Economy: Trade and Finance, NewYork, London: Harcourt Brace, 1994, p. 641.],    .

  -      [76 -  .:Bordo, Michael. The Imbalances of the Bretton Woods System 1965 to 1973: NBER Working Paper No. 25409, 2019      : https://www.nber.org/papers/w25409.pdf (https://www.nber.org/papers/w25409.pdf) (c  18 2020.).].   1971.   ,  젖 ;    10%          ;   ,      [77 -  .:Frum, David. How We Got Here: The 70s The Decade That Brought You Modern Life, For Better Or Worse, NewYork: Basic Books, 2010, pp. 295298.].  ,    1971.  .        [78 - .: Ghizoni, Sandra. Nixon Ends Convertibility of US Dollars to Gold and Announces Wage/ Price Controls   Federal Reserve History: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends (https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends) (c  18 2020.).],      (   ,    1971.         $38  [79 -  .:Road to the Smithsonian Agreement (August 16 December 18, 1971)      : https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF071/15374-9781451971477/15374-9781451971477/ch26.xml (https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF071/15374-9781451971477/15374-9781451971477/ch26.xml) (c  18 2020.).]),    ,      .     ,                 :     1970-    1980- .         (   , ,  ,       [80 - .: Coffey, Peter. The European Monetary System Past, Present and Future, Amsterdam: Springer-Science+Business Media, 1986, pp. 1333.]).        :           ,            ,     [81 - ., .: Odell, John. The U.S. and the Emergence of Flexible Exchange Rates: An Analysis of Foreign Policy Change : International Organization, 1979, Vol. 33, 1, pp. 5781.]. . ,   ,  ,    ,              [82 - .: Eichengreen, Barry. The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth, Washington (DC): The World Bank, 2008, . 14.] ( 1970.    5,6%   16,0%    15,1%  [83 -    The Global Economy: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/USA/exports/ (https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/USA/exports/), https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/France/Exports/ (https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/France/Exports/)  https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Germany/exports/ (https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Germany/exports/) (  22 2020.).]).             ,        ( ) ,   ,         XIX   .,     ,  ,  ,    [84 - Wolf, Martin. Fixing Global Finance, Baltimore (Md.), London: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 2008, . 17.].

  ,       ,        19701980- .,  ,     ,  ,     -            蠖           ,     (  , ,   ,    ).

       .             ⠖      .   20 (!) ,  1950  1970.,        5,2%  $1,71  $1,80/,    1971.       $2,24/,             10,7%,  $2,48/[85 - .: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020    British Petroleum: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx) (c  8 2020.).].          (    3,2    1971   1973.[86 -    Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart (https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart) (  8 2020.).])             ,          1 1974. (   ,          [87 - ., .: Hammes, David and Wills, Douglas. Black Gold: The End of Bretton Woods and the Oil-Price Shocks of the 1970s : The Independent Review, 2005, Vol. IX, No. 4, . 503.]).       4,7   19731974.[88 - .: BP Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx) (c  8 2020.).]     ,    .        ,        ,     .    ,        ( ,  ,      1970- .,       1980-     ).   ,   1970. 0,3% ,   4,3%  1976. 6,3%  1983-[89 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -76, p. 383.] ( : 1994.           10,4% [90 - .:  .    : 19851995. .: , 1995. . 123; https://www.iep.ru/files/persona/sinelnikov/budkr.pdf (https://www.iep.ru/files/persona/sinelnikov/budkr.pdf).]).       $2,8  1970.  $207,8  1983-;         $369,0  $1,38[91 - .: Economic Report of the President 1990, table -76, p. 383  table -84, p. 392.].      :        $2,6  1970.    $67,1  1983-젖  75%            [92 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -102, p. 410.].

         ,       ,         .       3,2%  1972.  9,1%  1975-  13,5%  1980-[93 - .: Economic Report of the President 1990, table -61, p. 363.].           ,      20%   1980  1981.[94 - .: Fed Funds Rate History: Its Highs, Lows, and Charts    The Balance: https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135 (https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135) (  13 2020.).] (       19,08%    1981.[95 -    : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS) (  13 2020.).]       :  ,       ,        ,     ( 1984.      $104,2,  2,83% ,          1985.  [96 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -1, p. 294; table -101, p. 409  table -102, p. 410.]);  ,          , ,        ,         .   1981-   1985.       57%,     106,3%,      108,3% (       25,6%[97 -      : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXGEUS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXGEUS), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSUK (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXUSUK), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXFRUS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXFRUS)  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXJPUS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXJPUS) (  21 2020.).]),   19801984. , , , , , , ,         (  ,    )        [98 -  .:Pastor, Robert. Latin Americas Debt Crisis: Adjusting to the Past or Planning for the Future, Boulder (Co.): Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1987.].    ,        ,   1980- .                  .  Plaza Accord,     -   1985.,        40%     [99 - C.: Niskanen, William. Reaganomics. An Insiders Account of the Policies and the People, NewYork, Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1988, pp. 175176;  .:Frankel, Jeffrey. The Plaza Accord, 30 Years Later: NBER Working Paper No. 21813, 2015      : https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21813/w21813.pdf (https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w21813/w21813.pdf) (c  21 2020.).]      . ,      ,   ,    trente glorieuses.        ( 1973  1989.     2,21%,  蠖 2,33%,  蠖 2,68%[100 -    Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/gdp-growth-rate (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/DEU/germany/gdp-growth-rate); https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-rate)  https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/gdp-growth-rate (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FRA/france/gdp-growth-rate) (  21 2020.).]),   ( 1983.     9,5%,  à 7,1%,  蠖 8,5%,  蠖 11,7%[101 - .:  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -39, p. 338;  ,   : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -108, p. 417.]),               .      ,    (   )        :           ,         .

      1970- .     ,     19731974.       ,     19801981.    ,   (   , , , ,        1960-   .      [102 - .,       ,            1965. (.:House of Commons Official Report, 17 November 1965, p. 1165)     ,       .  (.:Nelson, Edward and Nikolov, Kalin. Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK, London: Bank of England, May 2002, pp. 12).]),    ,      .  1970-   1980- .     ,         ,         .            ,    頖 .   .                 ,      ,               .  ,            ( ,         ),               ,           . ,           - ,    1970-        .     .   ,    ,    ,            ,        .                          .    1970- .,      1       6,6%      7,1%,  1980- .     7,5%,      5,5%[103 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -61, p. 363  table -67, p. 371.].

           ,        1980- .,       ,           .

  -      ,        .  ,   ,           ,         ,  ,    ,   ,        ,      :   ,     ,       [104 -  .:Innovations Golden Goose : The Economist, 2002, December 14, pp. 2729.],    ,         .              ,    - .  ,           ,       ; ,    1960-    1970- .  ,  ,            1974.          [105 -        (A/RES/S-6/3201)      1 1974.;    .:Hart, Jeffrey. The New International Economic Order: Conflict and Cooperation in North-South Economic Relations, 1974-77, Houndmills, London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1983, pp. 3061; Menon, B.P. Global Dialogue: The New International Economic Order, Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1977        : Addo, Herb. Transforming the World-Economy? Nine Critical Essays on the New International Economic Order, NewYork: United Nations Univ., 1984.].  1970  1981.,       134,3%,    38%      , 38,4%      54,4%   [106 -  : Economic Report of the President 1990, table -58, p. 359  table -109, p. 418.],       2,85 ,  頖  2,06 ,    6,87 ;          2,38 ,   堖  21,7 [107 -     : http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/226371486076391711/CMO-Historical-Data-Annual.xlsx (http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/226371486076391711/CMO-Historical-Data-Annual.xlsx) (  21 2020.).],           ࠖ 6,74%  ( : 2011.,        ,     4,84%[108 -  : BP Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx) (  21 2020.)  Economic Report of the President 2013. Transmitted to the Congress March 2013, Washington (DC): United States Government Printing Office, 2013, table B-1, p. 322.]).           ,     1970-  1980- .   :      -  ,      ,          1980-  ,           [109 -  .:Maizels, Alfred. Commodities in Crisis: The Commodity Crisis of the 1980s and the Political Economy of International Commodity Prices, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, pp. 722  6164.].  1988.        28,2%   1980.,    10,  1998-젖 17,5%[110 - .: BP Statistical Review of World Energy: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx) (c  8 2020.).].  ,   ,            ,          ,    .             .         :     ,    1989.    ,        [111 - .: Kindleberger, Charles. World Economic Primacy: 1500-1900, Oxford, NewYork: Oxford Univ. Press, 1996, pp. 205209; Katz, Richard. Japan: The System That Soured. The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle, Armonk (NY), London: M.E. Sharpe, 1998; Hayes, Declan. Japans Big Bang. The Deregulation and Revitalization of the Japanese Economy, Boston: Tuttle Publishing, 2000, pp. 611  .].

   1990- .             [112 - .: Huntington, Samuel. Democracys Third Wave : Journal of Democracy, Spring 1991, Vol. 2, 2, pp. 1234  Huntington, Samuel. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Norman (Ok.), London: Univ. of Oklahoma Press, 1991.],    .     ,          19931996.;          ,    2000-         [113 - .: Democracy in Retreat   Freedom House: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/democracy-retreat (https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/democracy-retreat) (  21 2020.).].          .          ;             24%   ( 30%     1999.[114 - .: US Share of World GDP Since 1980   Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File: US_share_of_world-GDP_since_1980.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%20US_share_of_world-GDP_since_1980.jpg) (  8 2020.).]        1987.    1998. 3,55 ,               40%[115 -    S&P500    Nikkei 225  ,    Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data (https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)  https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data (https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data) (  21 2020.).].            .

        .

  ,    1990- .          .   ,      ,        (     1990  1995.   $69,5  $54,8   [116 -  : BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020    British Petroleum: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-all-data.xlsx) (c  8 2020.).]),        ,   .        ,      ,  , , ,    (      ).               ; 1993.          [117 - .: The East Asian Miracle. Economic Growth and Public Policy: A World Bank Policy Research Report, Washington (DC), Oxford: The World Bank & Oxford Univ. Press, 1993.].    1990- .     35  54%          ,               $76,9  1991.  $191,0  1996-[118 - .: Economic Report of the President 2010, table B-103, p. 448.].     㠖     ,                .

  ,  1990- .            .                ,      ,   ,    .     ,          ,  ,     ,   ,          ,    1990- .       ,     .                  ;        [119 - ., .: Garten, Jeffrey. The Big Ten. The Big Emerging Markets and How They Will Change Our Lives, NewYork: Basic Books, 1997; Marber, Peter. From Third World to World Class. The Future of Emerging Markets in the Global Economy, Cambridge (Ma.): Perseus Publishing, 1998  .]    ,         [120 - ., .: Mobius, Mark. Mobius on Emerging Markets, London: Pitman Publishing, 1996, pp. 1832  6477.],     ,        ,  , ,    1994.    19971998.       ,   ,       .  1998. ,   2001.       젖          - .




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      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


   Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-economy-2014-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T (https://www.businessinsider.com/china-overtakes-us-as-worlds-largest-economy-2014-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T).  ,                   2017. (.:https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN (https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN)  https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=US (https://data.wordbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=US),   1 2020.).




2


 .:    c   : https://www.interfax.ru/russia/186549 (https://www.interfax.ru/russia/186549) (  1 2020.).




3


.: Trade in Goods with hina    C  : https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) (  1 2020.).




4


 : Portfolio Holdings of U.S. and Foreign Securities      : https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfhhis01.txt (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfhhis01.txt) (  1 2020.).




5


., .:  .      // . 2014. 16. . 67.




6


.: Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History? in: National Interest, 1989, No. 16, pp. 318; :  .     . .: , 2004.




7


., .: Bell, Daniel. The Resumption of History in the New Century in: Bell, Daniel. The End of Ideology. On the Exhaustion of Political Ideas in the Fifties, Cambridge (Ma.), London: Harvard Univ. Press, 2000, pp. xi xxxvi; Kagan, Robert. The Return of History and the End of Dreams, NewYork: Alfred A. Knopf, 2008; Welsh, Jennifer. The Return of History: Conflict, Migration, and Geopolitics in the Twenty-First Century, NewYork: Anansi Press, 2016  ..




8


.: Cheng, Jonathan. China Records First Ever Contraction in Quarterly GDP on Coronavirus    The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-report-plunge-in-first-quarter-gdp-11587086697?mod=searchresults_pos1 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-report-plunge-in-first-quarter-gdp-11587086697?mod=searchresults_pos1) (  20 2020.).




9


      : https://customs.gov.ru/storage/document/document_statistics_file/2020-08/10/m84z/WEB_UTSA_04.xls (https://customs.gov.ru/storage/document/document_statistics_file/2020-08/10/m84z/WEB_UTSA_04.xls) (  12 2020.).




10


    Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/);     2019.   : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/02/weodata/index.aspx) (  5 2020.).




11


   Worldometers: https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/) (  2 2021.).




12


7,2%    2020.           (.:Jennen, Birgit. German Public Deficit to Widen to More Than 7% of GDP This Year    Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/german-public-deficit-to-widen-to-more-than-7-of-gdp-this-year (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/german-public-deficit-to-widen-to-more-than-7-of-gdp-this-year)); 17,9% Ϡ        2019/20         (.:Wessel, David. How worried should you be about the federal deficit and debt?    Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/ (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-federal-deficit-and-debt/)) (  2 2020.).




13


.:  .,  . ,   : ,     . .: Corpus, 2020.




14


    Marketwatch: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/charts) (  1 2020.).




15


.: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update     : https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update (https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update) (  2 2020.).




16


        , .  : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL),  : https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200108.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200108.en.html)  https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200708.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2020/html/ecb.fst200708.en.html),  : https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/8-july-2020.pdf (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/8-july-2020.pdf)  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/1-january-2020.pdf (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/weekly-report/2020/1-january-2020.pdf) (  2 2020.).




17


  a CBRates: http://www.cbrates.com/ (http://www.cbrates.com/) (  1 2020.).




18


   .:https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_hicp.en.html (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_hicp.en.html) (  1 2020.),  : Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update.




19


    .:Kaplan, Juliana. 14 countries that are paying their workers during quarantine and how they compare to Americas $1,200 stimulus checks   Businessinsider: https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-offering-direct-payments-or-basic-income-in-corona-crisis-2020-4 (https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-offering-direct-payments-or-basic-income-in-corona-crisis-2020-4) (  1 2020.).




20


    CARES      $500䠖         (.:Tankersley, Jim etal. The Coronavirus Economy: When Washington Takes Over Business    The NewYork Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/economy/coronavirus-relief-bill.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/economy/coronavirus-relief-bill.html) (  1 2020.).




21


.: Rhodes, Richard. The Making of the Atomic Bomb, NewYork: Touchstone Books, 1988, pp. 669678.




22


.:  .,  .,  .  :        . , : T  , 2003. . 4354.




23


 ,  . ,   . ,      . :    ,        (.:http://magazine.hrm.ru/db/hrm/Reich_Robert/glossary.html (http://magazine.hrm.ru/db/hrm/Reich_Robert/glossary.html) (  1 2020.).




24


. c       1 1997.   Areppim: https://stats.areppim.com/listes/list_billionairesx96xwor.htm (https://stats.areppim.com/listes/list_billionairesx96xwor.html) (  1 2020.).




25


     Tradingeconomics: https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/stock-market), https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/stock-market), https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/stock-market)  https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/stock-market (https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/stock-market) (  5 2020.).




26


.: Sharma, Shalendra. The Asial Financial Crisis: Crisis, Reform and Recovery, Manchester: Manchester Univ. Press, 2003, p. 12.




27


.: Lacayo, Richard. IMF to the Rescue in: Time, 1997, December 8, p. 23.




28


   .:Williamson, John. Implications of the East Asian Crisis for Debt Management   Institute for International Economics: https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/implications-east-asian-crisis-debt-management (https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/implications-east-asian-crisis-debt-management) (  5 2020.).




29


         228,9%,    247,3% (.:Stock Market Performance by President   Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president (https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president) (  1 2020.).




30


     : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD)    (  1 2020.).




31


 .:Wolf, artin. Fixing Global Finance, Baltimore (Md.), London: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, 2008, . 112134.




32


 : Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities, NewYork: Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork, April 2017, exibit 2, p. 6.




33


Aron, Raymond. 18 Lectures on Industrial Society, London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 1968, p. 42.




34


 .: .   . .: , 2000.




35


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36


     .     ; edicare      1965.         (. XVIII),    ,   Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,   Food Stamps Act 31 1964.  2019.     97 ,       $704 (.:Budget Basics: Medicare    : https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/medicare (https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/medicare)  Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Costs       : https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-7.pdf (https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/SNAPsummary-7.pdf) (  21 2020.).




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38


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39


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40


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41


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42


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43


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115


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116


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