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 ,   1990?,            .                   ,  ,    ,   ,    ,  , ,     ,   (.       ).    ࠖ,          ,     .       ,    ,          ,    ,            .       [1 - ., : .     //    . 2003. 8.].

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       .      ,        , 蠫,             (      ).            ,   ?  ,              (.      Democracy derailed in Russia: The failure of open politics[3 - FishM.S. Democracy derailed in Russia: The failure of open politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005.]).

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 ,   sturm und drang     ,        1990?. -,   껠,      ,     ,       ,           ,      . ,    ,    ,      ,  蠫  (,   ).        蠖          .     ,     ,    ,      ,        .

           .   ,   ,     ,     . Ѡ ,          , 頖     ,  ,    ,   (        ,    ). ,   ,    ,    ,     . Ѡ ,         (  )     .     ,   ,        .    (second-best institutions)  15            (.   [4 - RodrikD. Second-best institutions// American economic review. 2008. 2.]),   堖   .

 ࠖ     ,   .          :    ,          .          ,   ,   .      ,        ,    [5 - HellmanJ. Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions// World Politics. 1998. Vol.50. 2. P.203234.].

Ƞ,       :     1989 ,    ,   .    ,     ;    XXI  .         , , ,         .    XX   (comparative democratization)  1015        (comparative authoritarianism),        ,      .

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           .    ,      (2004, 2014),  򠖠  젖         [6 - ., .  //   . 2004. 2; ShleiferA., TreismanD. Normal countries: the east 25years after communism// Foreign Affairs. 2014. .93. .92.]. Ƞ        . ,    ,  ,    ,   ,   ,    蠫     .  ,     ,  ,       .  ,      1990?       ,     .         , 2000?         .

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   , , -    . ,        ,  XX       38%    12   ,   48%,   7   (, , , , , , )27%.      (1950  1972)      53%,  蠖44%  7  32%;    2000?       39%   -12, 堖46% 7  30%[7 - .: Maddison Historical Statistics. Maddison Database 2010; https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases.].    ,            ,       .                ,     . ,    ,             .  ,                            1980?.

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                   . , , ,             .          蠖 ,   , 젖 ,  .        ,  , , ,      :     ,     ,             .   ,   ,     ,    .        .  ,  ,      .

           ,                   . ʠ           ,         ,     [9 - ., : PitcherA., MoranM.H., JohnstonM. Rethinking patrimonialism and neopatrimonialism in Africa// African Studies Review. 2009. Vol.52. 1. .125156; .. ʠ  :  //  . 2010. 4. .158187; LaruelleM. Discussing neopatrimonialism and patronal presidentialism in the Central Asian context// Demokratizatsiya. 2012. 20(4). .301; HaleH.E. Patronal politics: Eurasian regime dynamics in comparative perspective. Cambridge University Press, 2014.].

  ,          30,     .     ,     ,   1980?,  ( )       ,  -          ,      .      :    (  ),      (        ).                 .

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 ,    ,   .       .    ,      ,  :   ,    . , ,              .         :   -,            .     ,      , ..       ,      ,   ꠫ .

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   ,      ,        (path dependence).            堖   ,  ,  ,     ,        .     :         ,                  ,        ?

,        ,        ,  ,       ,   ,   (       )     ,    (        ,  ,  ,          [10 - LankinaT.V., LibmanA., ObydenkovaA. Appropriation and subversion: precommunist literacy, communist party saturation, and postcommunist democratic outcomes// World politics. 2016. Vol.68. 2. .229274.]),    .

    ,      [11 - .., .., .., .., .., .. (), .., ..  ? :      90?. .,1993.],         .   ,        ,     :  ,                    ,   ;     ,          .           -        :     :    .

  ,         ( , ,  ),    ,      ,   ,     堖  .       ,    ,     ,     ; ,     蠖  ,    .           ,   ,  ,  ,       , ࠫ          ,   , ..   ,  .    ,  ,     ?    ,        ,         ,   , .

  ,         ,      ,       [12 -     2019 ⠫-            ,       .].                      .    ,   ,        ,           ( ),         . Ƞ  ,     蠖    ꠫ 軠    . ,          廠   ,        .     (   )     ,     ,        ,          ,       ,  .       ,                ,     ,      ,      軠   蠫 .  ,        ,         ,    ,     ,       ,   .

         .  ,        .  . -  ,                    [13 - Pop-ElechesG., TuckerJ.A. Communisms shadow: Historical legacies and contemporary political attitudes. Princeton University Press, 2017.].             ,     젖              ,     , ,  ,         19801990?, ,      .               ,   . ʠ    ,       ,   ,  蠖   .         ,       ,       ,       ,   .

,                 :     ( 3540)  ( 55)   ,     [14 - ., : .  :     //  .     2019.   . .7. .,2019;  .  :     //  ().       .   . .10. .,2020.].   , ,     , , -,               , -,           ,       -.        ,       ,     .     ,          18  40,      ,  2020 38%  ,      55,      ,37%.

           1990? 2000?          .               ,         [15 - SchwartzS.H. Value orientations: Measurement, antecedents and consequences across nations// Measuring attitudes cross-nationallylessons from the European Social Survey/ R.Jowell, C.Roberts, R.Fitzgerald, G.Eva (eds). London: Sage, 2006.].             ?     20062018              .                   젖.    , ,      :        ,         ,   ,     ,     .

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  ,  ,     ,      ,   ,       ,    ,   ,   ,          ,    .

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 1989       ,       ,           ,    [18 - FukuyamaF. The End of History?// National Interest. Summer 1989.].           ,        .  -   ,      ,        .        ,    ⠫   ,        , ,        .        ,      ,   . Ƞ    -       ,  ,     ,     ,           .  ,         .     ,   ,   ,    ,  , [19 - Ibid. P.12, 3, 5, 8, 13; FukuyamaF. The End of History and the Last Man. New York: Free Press, 1992. P.45.].

     ,            .  , , ,        ,       .   ,           ,   ,          [20 - FukuyamaF. The End of History? P.12.].

   -      ,           ,    .              ,   ,      ,    ,    , .          - .    ,       ,   ,       ,    ,     .     , 1988?,                    ,           .

 ,   1989     ,   ,           ,    ,       .    ,               ,     [21 -  ,   ,      ,       ,       .].    ,    ,        ,           .          ,        [22 -  2008            : ,   ,     ;      ;   ,    ,      ,        ,   ,      .  ,       .       .    ,       .    ,    ? (Yo Zushi. Exploring Memory in the Graphic Novel// New Statesman. 6February 2019).].

      ()  ,      .      ,    ,             ,   .

,   -  ,               XXI.               ,  ,      ,    .   ,          .           ,     ,                          [23 - LegutkoR. The Demon in Democracy: Totalitarian Temptations in Free Societies// Encounter Books. 2018. P.63, 20, 80.].     ,    , :     ,   ,  ,    <>       [24 - . : Oltermann Ph. Can Europes New Xenophobes Reshape the Continent?// The Guardian. 3February 2018. ʠ            ,            : ߠ     ;  ,    ,  . ߠ   ,   . ߠ,     -  (. : Walker Sh. The Long Hangover: Putins New Russia and the Ghosts of the Past. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018. P.4).].   ,                ,   ,   ,   .

                 .    ,   ,   ໠              .        . Ƞ ,    ,      .

 1989      -     ,          ,      .   ,       ,  .

 1990  , 25- ,                 ,    .    , ,     ,                ,     .   ,  .   ,   , ,            .      [25 - FefferJ. Shock Waves: Eastern Europe after the Revolutions. Boston: South End Press, 1992.].     :   ,     ,   , ;    ,  ;   ,   . Ƞ   ,   [26 - .  : ThorpeN. 89: The Unfinished Revolution. London: Reportage Press, 2009. P.191192.].    ,    ,        ,      1989. 25        ,   1990?.     ,   .   ,       .   :     젖  [27 - FefferJ. Aftershock: A Journey into Eastern Europes Broken Dreams. London: Zed Books, 2017. P.34.].

 ,         1989.    ,   ,    ?  ,       . ,     , ,    1989.    ,      ,    .          ,   .           .

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  ,  蠖 ,     [28 - OrwellG. The Collected Essays, Journalism and Letters. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1968. Vol.3. P.244.]. ,      1989, ,      ⠫ ?        1989    ,    ?      1989.  ,           ?

  ,   ,        ,   1989?      ,        ,    ,          .       .   1990?           ,       ,      ,    .  1989 ,  ,     .   -           ,    , .         .        ,   .

,  ,      ,     .           .     ,        ,      ,      .          . Ƞ 1789,    1917      .  1989    ,    . ,         ,             ,    .

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              . ,      ,    -    ,          ?  ,       ,   ,  .  1989,   ,   (exit)     (voice)         ,      蠖    ,            . ,             ,          .

            ,      ,   ,   .    ,     ,   ,     .  19892017   27% , ࠖ22,5%,  21%.    ,   14%    1989,       .      2007   3,4 ,        .    20082009        ,  ,   ?  . , ,      ,     ,      .    164 ,     50 000 [29 - FefferJ. Aftershock. P.34].  ,             (   )      .    ,          2015.

 蠖          .    ,     ,     ,     . ,        ,          .  ,  ,   ,          .     ,              ,       .    ,          ,    . , 2014   ,   ,    ,        300 000,   .  ,     ,  ,     ,     ,     .

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  Ȼ

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   1966        ,      렖 [30 - CanguilhemG. The Normal and the Pathological/ Transl. C.R.Fawcett, R.S.Cohen. New York: Zone Books, 1991.].       ,      .     ,             .  1989    ()  ()         ,  ,    , [31 -                 : ShleiferA., TreismanD. Normal Countries. The East 25 Years After Communism// Foreign Affairs. November/December 2014.].  ,        ,     ,    :     ? Ƞ  :    ,     ?

 2016        ,               蠫   ,         [32 - BradshawP. Graduation reviewa five-star study of grubby bureaucratic compromise// Guardian. 19 May 2016.].     ࠖ   .         ,    ,  -  - .       ,   ,      .    ,     ,             .             ,     .

           .      ,         .         :     ,    .        ,      .  ,     ,     .        :  ,      ,      ,         .

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,  ,    .          .    ,       , ,    ,      .    ,   .      堖 ,      ,    .

             . ,   ,         ,   ,    ,    . , ,  ,       ;  ,       ,     .            ,   ,    ,     ,     .  ,        , -       ,    . Ƞ:                .  ,   ,                .  ,      頖 ,         .        ,      ,  ,     ,  .

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         :                .        ,          . Ƞ               . ,    1989,        .            .             .   ,    , ,        ,      ,   .     ,      1968,           . Ѡ           .         ,     ,   .       ,       ,      .      ,        .       ,           .      ,     .         蠖   .    ,           .  ,               [33 - SmilovaR. Promoting Gender Ideology: Constitutional Court of Bulgaria Declares Istanbul Convention Unconstitutional// Oxford Human Rights Hub. 22August 2018; http://ohrh.law.ox.ac.uk/promoting-gender-ideology-constitutional-court-of-bulgaria-declares-istanbul-convention-unconstitutional.].

-  :          ?   ,    1989,   ,   ,                .    , ,     ,   ,         ⠄  [34 - LegutkoR. Liberal Democracy vs. Liberal Democrats// Quadrant Online. April 2015.].   ,        . Ƞ        ,      .

          .         ,      ,            ꠫ , : ,     ,    堖,   ,     ,     .                     , ,   ,     ,  ,        .

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, , ,  1989     ,     젖  -, 88%  ,   , 70%   30  [35 - -, 8 2019.].   ,     ࠖ ,   ,    , .    -         -1989   :       ;   ,          .

   (     ,  ,   ,  )    (?),            ,  ,    [36 -       : ..   :   / Russian Studies   // . 2020. 1.].


1.   ʻ

          ,      ,       . ,   ,       ,   ,    ⠫ ,      (,  ). , ,     , 堖   .      ,  堖 ,    ,         ,   .   ,    (   ) ,      -, .

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, ,          hic et nunc!     .                  (.. ) ,         .            (    軠Β, , ,   ):    ,  , ,     ,       (       ).        ,     1980?  1990?.      ,          .

 ,  ,  structure/agency (      )    ,         ,          . Ѡ ,    ,   ,    ,   [37 - ., ,        ,        : FishS. The Inner Asian Anomaly: Mongolias Democratization in Comparative Perspective// Communist and Post-Communist Studies. 2001. Vol.34. 3.]. 頖      (   )     (, ,   ).

Ѡ 2000?             ,      ,     (     , ,   ). ,         :            ,   ,  .

, ,     [38 - WayL., CaseyA. The Structural Sources of Postcommunist Regime Trajectories// Post-Soviet Affairs. 2018. Vol.34. 5.] structure  ,         :     ,  ,     ,      .    ,        ,        (linkage and leverage),          ,        [39 - WayL., LevitskyS. The Dynamics of Autocratic Coercion after the Cold War// Communist and Post-Communist Studies. 2006. Vol.39. 3.].           ,        [40 - GreeneS. The End of Ambiguity in Russia// Current History. 2015. Vol.114. 774.].          structure/agency          ,     [41 - WayL.A. Pluralism by Default: Weak Autocrats and the Rise of Competitive Politics. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2015.]. , ,      .

            -1989    .          .         ,  ,       , , ,    ,.


2.  Ƞ߻

     -1989.        ,    ,  ⠫ ()       ,     .          . ,       (    ),             .     ,   ,     .

 ,                .  ,                   ,   1950?                .           ꠖ ,  ,                 ,         .             .    (, ,      )     .

   ,            (    15  40% , ,    )        2000?              [42 - GontmaherE., RossC. The Middle Class and Democratization in Russia// Europe-Asia Studies. 2015. Vol.67. 2; . : ColtonT. Paradoxes of Putinism// Daedalus. 2017. Vol.146. 2.].                ,  , .

,          19501960?,    -  , ࠫ,          .      , -,   .  ,               , ,,  [43 - HansonS. The Evolution of Regimes: What Can Twenty-Five Years of Post-Soviet Change Teach Us?// Perspectives on Politics. 2017. Vol.15. 2.]. ,                   ,   .

      ,           ,   .                - .

    ,      , ,  ,        [44 - ., : FoaR. Modernization and Authoritarianism// Journal of Democracy. 2018. Vol.20. 3.].    ,     (堖 )               (   - ,  ,   ..),        ,  .               (   )    ,   ,    ,   ,     .[45 - GurievS., ZhuravskayaE. Why Russia is Not South Korea// Journal of International Affairs. 2010. Vol.63. 3. . : StarodubtsevA. Federalism and Regional Policy in Contemporary Russia. Abingdon: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2018.]     ,     (,     2000?),   ,          .

  ,  ,       ,    ,    .            [46 - ColtonT. Paradoxes of Putinism// Daedalus. 2017. Vol.146. 2. . : MelvilleA. The Illiberal World Order and Russian Liberal// Dimensions and Challenges of Russian Liberalism: Historical Drama and New Prospects/ R.Cucciolla (ed.). Cham: Springer, 2019.],       - -         . -  蠖   ,  ,          ,      젖  蠫 ,   .                       .            -1989  ,   -      .


3.  ۻ

 ,    ,        ,     蠖   (?)  ,       .    ( )  ,  ,  ,    ,    ,    ⠫ .   ,   ( )   ,      ,  ,  ,    .        .

-,   ,      ,     ( ,   ),       .  ,   ,    , 堖      (  [47 - PetrovN. The Political Mechanics of the Russian Regime: Substitutes Versus Institutions// Russian Politics and Law. 2011 Vol.49. 2.])  蠖, ,  .        .            .          .

-,    , ,               ,  蠫 .            ,    , ,    ,         ꠫ .

        ,     . -,                 .       ,       ,  ⠫       .        ,     :   ,    ,    .[48 - .: GeddesB. A Comparative Perspective on the Leninist Legacy in Eastern Europe// Comparative Political Studies. 1995. 28; HellmanJ. Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions// World Politics. 1998. Vol.50. 2; FryeT. In From the Cold: Institutions and Causal Inference in Postcommunist Studies// The Annual Review of Political Science. 2012. 15.]     ,        ,        .  ,        ,        : System1,       , 蠫System2    [49 - The New Autocracy. Information, Politics, and Policy in Putins Russia/ D.Treisman (ed.). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2018.].

-,  ,        ,     ,     :   ,   .        (     : ,  ..,  ,    黠),      (   , 𠖠 蠖 ,  ,   ,    .).   ,    ,              .  ,          蠫,             .

 ,  ,     ( transitional) ,      ,  -      -  .   :     ,   ,       ,       ? ,  ,     ?

 [50 - GurievS. How Transitional Institutions Could Transform Russias Economy. 2017; http://carnegie.ru/commentary/74790.]              .  ,           , ,  ,    good enough governance.              ,  ,         .

 ,       ,  ,       .             .           (cleavages),                ()  ,    .        ,         [51 - .: KitscheltH. Formation of Party Cleavages in Postcommunist Democracies: Theoretical Propositions// Party Politics. 1995. Vol.1. 4; MakarenkoB. The Role of Elections in Democracy// Democracy in a Russian Mirror/ A.Przeworski (ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015.]. ,       (    ),   ,   .  젖 ,       .

     /   蠫      ,    .  ,      ,     ,     . Ѡ ,                . Ѡ ,    ,           -  .           ,       [52 - ReuterO.J. The Origins of Dominant Parties: Building Authoritarian Institutions in Post-Soviet Russia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017.].

 ,        , ,  ,   ()            . , ,   (   ),           ,      . Ƞ       -1989.


4.  ̻

  젖..  ,  ,   ,    .       .        ? ,         ,     (   ),       ,      .     (, ,    ) , ,    .

,       . ,   .                       -   .             (   state capture,  ).       ,  ,  ,    젖 ,  .

, ,        .            ,   ,   (state capacity),    ,     .             頖    .  1980?,          ,     , ,        .

       ,     :      - ,    ,       ,       ,     .

          .        ,        ,     ,    -  .   :    ,  ,  ,  , / ,     .

         ࠖ  ,     ,   .     Sequencing,     ,    ,               .  :      (Stateness first[53 - MollerJ., SkaaningS.-E. Stateness First?// Democratization. 2011. Vol.18. 1.]) ?       젖(Re)building of the ship of state atsea?[54 - BrattonM., ChangE. State Building and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Forwards, Backwards, or Together?// Comparative Political Studies. 2006. Vol.39. 9.]

  ,   -1989,     ,      ,       .      .             ,     .

                 state capacity  .         -     J-curve[55 - BackH., HadeniusA. Democracy and State Capacity: Exploring a J-Shaped Relationship// Governance; An International Journal of Policy, Administration, and Institutions. 2008. Vol.21. 1.].   ,   ,     ,     ,       (   𠖠).            J-curve,    , ,            [56 - MelvilleA., MironyukM. Bad Enough Governance: State Capacity and Quality of Institutions in Post-Soviet Autocracies// Post-Soviet Affairs. 2016. Vol.32. 2.].

       ,  :      ,      bad governance    ,    ,    蠫   ,     ?  ,               -     . , ,   Winners take all[57 - HellmanJ. Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions.]               (King of the hill),     .  ,     蠖      .        :  ,    ,   ,    .


5.  

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     ,    .     , ,   ,    ( ,    ,   house divided)         ,  .      젖      . ,    ,        ,  蠖       [59 - HaleH.E. Patronal Politics. Eurasian Regime Change Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015.].

    , ,    ,      蠫,   ,    ,     .               . ,   -     .  , ,  . -,     , ,  , - (    ). -,          ,    , ,  ,        . -,       . -,    蠖                rally round the flag    [60 - The New Autocracy. Information, Politics, and Policy in Putins Russia/ D.Treisman (ed.). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2018.].

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   ȠŠ[79 -       Post-Soviet Affairs (2018. Vol.34. 5).]


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     Р          ,      .        180:     ,     1989,        .  ,  ,   ,           ,         . ߠ,         :           .      ,   ( )      ,   ,         ,       .

            ,           ,     .     ( /  )   (   )                       ?.


Π   

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            :      .  ,         (   )   30        ,       ,           .   ,    ,     .        蠖     2042?[81 - .      2042? .: , 2016.].       ,     ,    ,           [82 - HaleH.E. Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015; TreismanD. Income, Democracy, and Leader Turnover// American Journal of Political Science. 2015. Vol.59 (4). P.927942.]. Ƞ               [83 - World Bank. Modest Growth Ahead: Russia Economic Report. 2018. 39; https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29913/127254-WP-PUBLIC-ADD-SERIES-JunefinalRussiaEconomicReportENG.pdf?sequence= 1&isAllowed=y ( 29 2021).]




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