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 70       .

 

   .  ,    .  ,    ,   ,    .

       :  (https://journal.litres.ru/chetyre-prichiny-pochemu-mir-bolshe-ne-katitsya-v-propast/)





 

 .   , ,   



ENLIGHTENMENT NOW:

THE CASE FOR REASON, SCIENCE, HUMANISM, AND PROGRESS

STEVEN PINKER



  ,  

   , . .  (      ,    )



  

 . 

  . 

 . , . , . 

- . 

  . 



Steven Pinker, 2018

   , , .   -, 2021



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           ziminbookprojects.ru (http://ziminbookprojects.ru/)


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                   ,   .     ,    ,     :        ;          ; ,      [1 -      , https://share.america.gov/ru/--- (https://share.america.gov/ru/%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D1%82-%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%83%D0%B3%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD). . .].      ,     .         ,       [2 -   :     , 20 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address (https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address).       :            2014, .  J. L. Feder, This Is How Steve Bannon Sees the Entire World, BuzzFeed, Nov. 16, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world (https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world).   軠           ,  2016, http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016-tv-ad/ (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016-tv-ad/).   ,         .].

    ,         .    ࠖ   ,    ,     .   ࠖ         .                ,   ,       . ,     ,           ,     .      ,    ,      ,        ,  .      , ,      : , ,   .   ,           ,  .


~

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        ,    ,  ,     .   ,   (PRRI),   (Social Progress Index),  ,   (Human Progress),  ,  ,   (Science Heroes),   (Bureau of Labor Statistics),   (US Fire Administration/FEMA),   (National Safety Council),   (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone),   (Polity Project),  ,   (World Bank),   (Homicide Monitor),   (World Values Survey),   (US Fire Administration/ FEMA),   (Science Heroes),  ,   (Uppsala Conflict Data Program),     ,  ,   (OECD Clio Infra),   (Our World in Data),  - (Google Trends),  ,   (Uppsala Conflict Data Program),  ,   (Bureau of Justice Statistics),  ,    (OECD Clio Infra),  ,   (World Values Survey),      (Science Heroes).

 ,   ,  ,  ,  ,             .    ,      :  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,     .

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 ,      堖     ,   ,   .    ,   ,    .   , ,          .      : ,      , ,  ,  ,    ,       ,    , ,    , ,      ,  ,        ,        .     ,       .       蠖     ,        , , , ,        .  ,          ,           .

 ,    ,       ,           (    ,  ,      ).      ,          (  ,     ,           ,     ,       ,       - ?),     , ,       ,     ,   .         ,      ,          ,      .

     ,          :   ,  ,  ,      .    XXI    ,      ,    ,      ,          .      ,         : ,                 .      ,    ,     .       ,             ,      .

     ,       ,     ,    :    頖        .      .    .        [4 -      29 2014.     ,     .],   ,   ,     ໠   - :         -[5 - S.Maher, Inside the Mind of an Extremist, Oslo Freedom Forum, May 26, 2015, https://oslofreedomforum.com/talks/inside-the-mind-of-an-extremist (https://oslofreedomforum.com/talks/inside-the-mind-of-an-extremist).][6 -      14 2003.   -  ,      .].

     1960-    ,      ,    :



        ,    ,      .         .         ,   ,  ࠖ           [7 - Hayek 1960/2011, p. 47; Wilkinson 2016a.][8 - . . .].


 ࠖ      ,     XXI.              :  ,   ,         .        ,   XXI,   .         ,        .    , ,    ,     .       ,      ,        .        . ,         ,     .      , ,     ,    ,   ,     .




 1

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  ?      1784  .   ࠖ       ,       [9 -    .. . .],      ,         [10 - Kant 1784/1991.].     :     !,    젖    :



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 XXI      ,          (The Beginning of Infinity)[12 -  .  : ,   . .:  -, 2014. 581 . . .].  , ,        ,        ,   :



 (  ,    )    ,   ,       ,          .   ,        ,    - .   ,      ,  .   ,    ,       .    ,    ,     ,    ,     [13 - Deutsch 2011, pp. 22122.][14 - . . . .].


  ?[15 - : Goldstein 2006; Gottlieb 2016; Grayling 2007; Hunt 2007; Israel 2001; Makari 2015; Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Pagden 2013; Porter 2000.]      ,   ,    ,           ,        -    .        XVIII,            XVII           XIX.  ,           ,        ,        ,       .            ,        : , ,   .

     .     .       ,    (    ),   ,        蠖 ,  ,           ,        ,          [16 -     : Nagel 1997; .  21.].  -     ,   ,          ,        , , , , , , , , ,     .

           ,    [17 -      : Pagden 2013, p. 98.].     ,       ,         ,                  ,     ,        . ( :      ,      .)         .    (  )  ,     ,     ,        .   蠖       .        -,      .

            ,      .        .  ,  , ,  ,     ,              .  , ,        ,     .      ,        .

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[] ,        .      蠖    ,   ,   .  ,  ,        ,       ,     .  ,       ,     , ,   .  ,     .  ,  ࠖ   ,    .      ⠖     . ,  ,             [18 - Wootton 2015, pp. 67.][19 - . . . .].

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        ,      .   , ,     ࠖ      .

       .       ,   ,       ,    , , , ,   ,  ,  Ē, -    .      ,    ,   ,      ,    ,       [21 -      : Kitcher 1990; Macnamara 1999; Makari 2015; Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Pagden 2013; Stevenson & Haberman 1998.].    ,   ,          .    ,           ,   .    ,    ,   ,    ,      ,   , -     .    ,     ,      ,         .

        堖 .            ,         :  ,  ,       .      ,            ,      , ,   .  ,   ,  젖     ,   .      젖                  ,   ,        ,   ,       .

 ,       .     ,       ,   .      ,             ,     ,      ,     ,   - ,    ,      ,     [22 -   : Nagel 1970; Pinker 2011; Shermer 2015; Singer 1981/2011.].           [23 - : Appiah 2006; Pagden 2013; Pinker 2011.].

           ,         ,    , ,          ,    ,   ,  ,   ,  ,     .     ,       ,        [24 -  : Hunt 2007; Pinker 2011.].

,       ,   ?       .                  ,          .            ,       .

           XIX      ,   ,  ,  ,     ,           [25 -    : Berlin 1979; Nisbet 1980/2009.].            ,              .      ,      ,    ,         ,     ,      .       ,        ,     ,     ,   .

        XX         ,        [26 -   : Scott 1998.].            , ,    [27 -       : Pinker 2002/2016, pp. 17071, 40911.].          ,          , ,       .  ,  .         [28 -  : Scott 1998, pp. 11415.].       ,          : ,   ,   .

          ;      .   ,   , ,    ,           .

          ,        ,   .   ,                     ,      ,       .       ,   ,        ,     ,   ,       .

      ,    ,  ,    - , -        [29 -  : Hunt 2007.].  ,  ,       ,     ,    ,    ,  ,    .  , ,      ,        ,   ,       ,      .  ,     -   ,     ,  ,    ;  ,          ,   .

       .          ,      ,    [30 -  : Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Ridley 2010; Smith 1776/2009.].  ,   ,    , ,             .       ,         ,      ,    ,   .     ,            ,    ,     ,   ,  ,   ,       [31 - .  . . .],        .

    ,        ,   ,        (   ,   ):   ,     ,  ,   .        ,     ;   ,    ,        ,       .      ,    .     ,          ; ,             .      ,                   .

      ,   ,       ,  ,         ,  . (       ,      ,          [32 - . . . .].)   ,    , , ,    -,    doux commerce,  [33 -  : Mueller 1999, 2010b; Pagden 2013; Pinker 2011; Schneider & Gleditsch 2010.]. -   ,                  .

        .       ,         ,         .          ,    ,     ,     ,    ,    ,        .        ,          [34 -   : Kant 1795/1983.  : Russett & Oneal 2001.].   ,       ( ,      ),  ,  ,         ,    ,           .

   -,   ,  ࠖ    .         蠖 XVIII.    , , ,   .          ,    ,       .       ,    ,        .

        .      ,     ,    .      ,  ,      .        ,           ,      .      ,   .




 2

, , 


      ࠖ   ,  ,      XIX,         [35 -   : Atkins 2007; Carroll 2016; Hidalgo 2015; Lane 2015.].    ,     (  ,      )    . (  ,   ; 堖     .)      ,  ,        ⠖   ,     ,    ,    .

       ,                        . (      ,          ,     .)  ,       ,   .       ,          ,              .

   ,      ,           렖       ,   ,     ,    .             (              ).    ,      (, ,      ,             ),       ,       (     ,      )   .  ,     ,           ,          蠖  ,     ,  ,     ,  .        ,     ,   , ,      ,           .          ,       ,       ,    .

      ?                .  ࠖ    ,         :      ,           ,         .              , ,       ,  ,    .             ,   ,  , ,     ,     (        )     ,       .

           .           .  1928    :



   ,   ,      .  -  ,           ,     .  ,      ,  ,   . ,       ,   :     [36 - Eddington 1928/2015.].


     1959,        ,                  :



       ,       .         . -      ,     ,     .     .           ,    :    ?[37 -      : Snow 1959/1998, pp. 1415.][38 - . . . .]


       ,    (Four Laws That Drive the Universe)             .           ,               蠖    [39 -    =   : Tooby, Cosmides, & Barrett 2003.].

     ?             ,    :    ,          .         ,         .


~

  ,           .                  . C      :                   .  , , ,    ,    .    , , , ,        ,    .

  ,       ,      ,      [40 - : England 2015; Gell-Mann 1994; Hidalgo 2015; Lane 2015.].           ,  ,             , , , , ,   .  ,      ,  ,   ,          .                .

        :       ,     .        ,         ,   ,     (      )[41 -   : Dawkins 1983, 1986; Lane 2015; Tooby, Cosmides, & Barrett 2003.].

      ,             .      ,       ,  ,    , ,         (  ,     ),  ,             ,       ,        ,      .  ,    , ,       ,    ,         .     (   ,   ,      )    ,         ,    ,   ,  ,   ,   .

       , ,   ,    -  .  1859,          ,   ,        . ,             ,   .      .          ,     ,    , ,   ,     ,     .                .         ,      , ,    -     ( ),     ,           .  ,        ,     ,   ࠖ    蠖     ,            ,          ,       .

      , ,          .    :   .   :     ,         ,          ,          ,      .          蠖      (  ),       ,                   [42 - : Goldstein 2006.].

             .          ,    ࠖ   ,       ,   :            ,  .     ,      ,   .   , ,    ,        ,        . ࠖ  ,    ,       ,   . -   , , , ,  , ,       ;   , ,   ,     .    ,     :   ,    ,         ,   .


~

     蠖 [43 - : Adriaans 2013; Dretske 1981; Gleick 2011; Hidalgo 2015.].      ;   ,   ,         [44 -    ,      : https://schneider.ncifcrf.gov/information.is.not.uncertainty.html (https://schneider.ncifcrf.gov/information.is.not.uncertainty.html).].     ,     ,     ,     ,           .         ,         ,  .   ,      ,  ,      ,   -   :   ,    Hey, Jude     .     ,      ,   [45 -    : Adriaans 2013; Dretske 1981; Fodor 1987, 1994.].

 ,    ,   ,     .       ,  ,       ,         ,    ,         ,  .          ,  ,       (, ),      (,    )   .            ,    ,      ,   - .         ,   ,               .   ,   ,   ,    ,        .                [46 -    ,   : Hidalgo 2015, p. ix; Lloyd 2006.].

   ,       .          ,     ,           ࠖ    ,     ,   .

 ,          .       ,    ࠖ     ⠖      . ,    ,              .           ,     ,          .

    XX   ,        ,     ,        .           ,         ,  ,   ,   ,      .        ,  .     ,        (         ),     ,       .            ,   ,     ,        [47 -  : Anderson 2007; Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 2.].  ,            ,          ,   [48 - ,   : Block 1986; Fodor 1987, 1994.].  ,   ,   ,       ,    ,       ,    ,         .

  : ,         ,    ,          . ,    :   , ;   ,  .

  , ,          .         , ,      (堖      ),    - ,   .         XX,   ,      .   ,       ,      . ,     ,         ,       (,   ,   ),        ,      ,       .    ,    ,         ,  ,      (     ,    ).        ,    ,  ,      .      ,           -,           .

 ,       ,          ,   . ,     ,    ࠖ      .   ,       ,       ,       .  ,  , ,      ,  ,  .   ,      ,           ,       (  ,                ). ,    ,      .

,     ,          ,           -    .    ,      ,     ,            ,                蠖        . (  ,          ,   ,     .)

      ,   Homo sapiens     ,         ,      ,              .    ,        -[49 -  : Marlowe 2010; Pinker 1997/2009; Tooby & DeVore 1987; Wrangham 2009.].        ,               ,    ,      ,      ,    ,                  ,  [50 - : Pinker 1994/2007.].            ,           ,  ,         .     -      ,     , , ,      ;    3000         880    [51 -  : Marlowe 2010.].        :       ,  ,    ,          .

,  ,      ,             .      10000            ,                  ,    .   500   ,  ,       ,            ,     ,      ,        [52 -  : Goldstein 2013.].     , ,     ,   ,                  . (, , ,            .)            [53 -   : Baumard etal. 2015.].      ,   ,   -   :  .                 20000        , ,   .          ,     ,          .      ,  ,   [54 -  ,   .][55 - . . . .].

         ,    ,         , , ,    蠖   ,       (      58).     ࠖ           蠖      ,              ( 10).


~

, , .      :  ,     ,   ,      .

        :      . , ,          ,     .  ,     ,     - , ,    蠖  , , , ,  ,  -   .        ,         .    ,          ,        .          ,   ,     .     ,     ,   ,      . ,       , ,     ,    ,    .

,                ,     -  ,     [56 -   : Carroll 2016; Wootton 2015.]. ,    ,         .       ,       .

           .        頖       ,     ,        ,  .   ,   ,    ⠖   ,      .

         . ,        ,         .    ,     .

    .  ,     ,    .          ,      ,      .    ,     ,   .    ,    ,  -       ,         .

      ,      . ,     .           ,     ,         ,   .   ,        ;    ,        .     .            ,   :            ,       .        ,      . , , ,        ,    , ,    .        ,           ,         ,  .    ,   ,    頖   .         ,               .

     :  ,             ,        .    ,   ,    ,     ;     ,             .        ,        ,    ,     .

      ,  ;         , ,    [57 -     : Carey 2009; Wolf 2007.].  ,        ,        ,    :          ,            (   1600)[58 -  ,    : Oesterdiekhoff 2015; Pinker 1997/2009, chaps. 5, 6; Pinker 2007a, chap. 7.].  ,              .    [59 -   : Ariely 2010; Gigerenzer 2015; Kahneman 2011; Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 5; Sutherland 1992.].              ,      ,    .   -    .    ,      ,     ,      .     ,     ,   ,   ,   ,   [60 -    : Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman 2011; Kahan, Peters, etal. 2013; Kahan, Wittlin, etal. 2011; Mercier & Sperber 2011; Tetlock 2002.].    , , ,   [61 -  : Johnson 2004.     : Sloman & Fernbach 2017.].

         [62 -  : Greene 2013; Haidt 2012; Pinker 2008a.].   ,     ,      .       .              [63 -    : DeScioli & Kurzban 2009; DeScioli 2016.].         ,    - ,    ,     ,   ,          .     ,    :                [64 -  : Fiske & Rai 2015; Pinker 2011, chaps. 8, 9.].


~

     .     ,      [65 -        : Pinker 2007a, 2010.].     .                   ; ,                .              ,   ; ,      ,       ,             ,   .                ,    ,      .          ,              :   , 堖  ,   , 蠖  .

      ,  .              , , , ,     .     ,           :    ;      ;     ,       .

         -      ,       .         : ,      ,  ,     ; ,      ,     [66 -    , Writings 13:33335; Ridley 2010, p. 247.].                 (    蠖     ,       ).         ,   ,     .          ,         .

        ,           .     ,        ,  ,        .  ,        젖  ,       ,        .  ,    ,         . :      ,       ,     .    :           ,        .             [67 -  : Haidt 2012; Mercier & Sperber 2011.].

       .          ,      ,      .         , ,      ,  ,     , ,      ,  ,    ,     ,     ,           ,    ,   [68 -     : Nagel 1970; Pinker 2011; Singer 1981/2011.].             , ,      ,  ,    , ,      ,  ,    , ,          ,     ,     (    :   ,   ,      ).        ,     :               .

            ;     ,      ,      .      ,   , , ,    ,    ,   젖 , ,   ,  ,    .         .




 3

 


    , ,   ?  ࠖ   ;   .       蠖 , ,  ,  ,  ,  .     ?

  .   1960-        ,     XXI     ,     [69 -    : Twenge, Campbell, & Carter 2014. Mueller 1999, pp. 16768.    ,    ,  ,   1960-.      : Gauchat 2012. : Inglehart & Norris 2016; J. M?ller 2016; Norris & Inglehart 2016; .  20  23.].    ,   ,  ,   ;    ,    ;      ,      .             XXI (      20  23).   , ,                             .

     ࠖ    ,        ,  . -,    - ,          .                  XVIII,       ,        .              [70 -    : Conrad 2012; Kurlansky 2006; Pelham 2016; Sen 2005; Sikkink 2017.].

   ,  堖   ,   ,   : ,  !     ,              [71 - : Berlin 1979; Garrard 2006; Herman 1997; Howard 2001; McMahon 2001; Sternhell 2010; Wolin 2004; .  23.].     ,    ,        ,        ,                   ,   .

      . ,  ,     ,     ,       ,         ,              ,    堖  ,    .        , , , ,    ;       ,    .      ,    ;   ,         .     ,   , ,   . ,   [72 - . . . .].

 ,    XXI                  . ,            ,  , , , .       , ,   ;       ,           .

   ⠖   .  -         ,           .       ,       ,    ,   ,    ,      ,    ,    .  ,   , ,    ;      ,      .     ,        ,         ,       蠖        , , ,     .      ,       ,    ,      [73 -        (19251926)       ,     ,        . . .]        .

     ,  蠖     : , ,  , , ,   .         ,      .      ,       ,      .            Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori (     ![74 - . . . --.])   ,         [75 -         (1922),  ,  .].       :  ,       ; ,           .

      ,   ,       . 蠖  ,              .         ,    , -      ,         .  ,  ,         ,   .   ,           ,       .   ,    ,   ,       ,       .

  젖    ,           ,    .     , ,         ,    ,      .        ,        .              ,        ,   , ,   ,      .

         .  ,       ,         ,          (          )[76 -   : Coyne 2015; .  23.].   ,         ,  ,   .   ,  , , ,      ,       .  ,         ,       ,        ,     ,    ,  .   23     .

     ,       蠖 .                ,     ,           ,    ,        .     ,               . ,       ,     ,    ,      ,    .   ,   ,       .   10        ,    ,  ,      [77 - : Asafu-Adjaye etal. 2015; Ausubel 1996, 2015; Brand 2009; DeFries 2014; Nordhaus & Shellenberger 2007; .  10.].

           :     ,   ,         .   21  ,       [78 - ,   : Duarte etal. 2015; Haidt 2012; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman 2011; Mercier & Sperber 2011; Tetlock & Gardner 2015; .  21.].       ,           ,    . ,   ,   蠖   ,  ,  (      ) 蠖    ,  ,      .

       ,    .        ,        ,          .         (The Idea Of Decline In Western History)        ,    - , ,    .   ,       [79 -           (Herman 1997). . Nisbet 1980/2009.].

               [80 - : Bailey 2015; Brand 2009; Herman 1997; Ridley 2010; .  10.].    ,        ,         ,      , , , ,          ( 19).          ,     ,    :    , ,  , ,  , , , ,       .

      :   ,        ,   ,      .    ,          ,    .    ,         , , , , ,   ,     .        , ,  , ,  , ,   ;    ,           [81 -      ,     ,             (Religious Trends in English Poetry). .  Nisbet 1980/2009, p. 328.] (      17  18).   ,            ,   , , , , ,    --    .    ,       ,  ,     ,        [82 - . . . .], ,    ࠖ , , ,   ,     [83 -   : Nietzsche 1887/2014.]. (        .)

 ,     ,    ,         .        ,    ,       .       .    ,  ,       .      ,    .

        .                 黠     [84 -        ,       ; ., ., Brockman 2003.].                    .      ,      ,         ,     [85 - Snow 1959/1998, p. 14.][86 - . . . .].  ,  ,  ,        :  ,  ,     ,      .

      ,             ,      1962  The Spectator           [87 -  : Leavis 1962/2013; . Collini 1998, 2013.].            ,    ,       ,     [88 - Leavis 1962/2013, p. 71.].      :



   ,       .  ?   ?   ?    ,      ,      .


(,           ,         ,              ,  ,                      .)

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  ,      . ,           ,   .    , , , ?     ,    !   ,   ,   ? .   ?  !  ,       . , , , , , ?   ,     !

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 II




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 , 2016 




 4




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       .   ,      ,          ,         .       ,    ,     .      , [89 - ࠖ  11-       ,   1913. . .] ,  ,       , ,          .

         .   ,     ,  ,  .          , , ,        ,  ,       ,      ,      .

ࠖ   ;  ,    ,  ,       ,      .          ,           ,    ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  , - ,  ,  ,  ,      [90 - Herman 1997, p. 7.  ,    ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,     .].       XX,             ,  ,         ,     .   .   (History of the Idea of Progress)      :    ,   XIX     ,    XX          ,      [91 - Nisbet 1980/2009, p. 317.][92 - .  . .   . .].

,   ,      , ,     .     蠖       .   ,           :   ,        , , ,   ,    .        ,    ,          .

        [93 -   : McNaughton-Cassill & Smith 2002; Nagdy & Roser 2016b; Veenhoven 2010; Whitman 1998.].      ,    ,   ,   ,  ,           ,       ,  , [94 -   EU Eurobarometer, .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.].     ,  , , , ,       ,     [95 -   Ipsos, Perils of Perception (Topline Results), 2013, https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-rss-kings-perils-of-perception-topline.pdf (https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-rss-kings-perils-of-perception-topline.pdf), .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.].      ,        ,    ,    ,    [96 - Dunlap, Gallup, & Gallup 1993, .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.].     1992-  2015-頖  ,      ,     ,    [97 - J. McCarthy, More Americans Say Crime Is Rising in U.S., Gallup.com (http://gallup.com/), Oct. 22, 2015, http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.aspx).].   2015      ,    ,          ,       [98 -   堖      , , , , , , , , ,   ;     ,   .    ,    , ,   ,   ,  ,   . YouGov poll, Jan. 5, 2016, https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world/ (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world/).     : Dean Obeidallah, Weve Been on the Wrong Track Since 1972, Daily Beast, Nov. 7, 2014, http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm (http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm).].

  ?      ?        ,        ?[99 -             ,         ,   barber pole. . .]  ,      :       , , , , ,   .       ,           .       , ,   ,       (    , ,  ,    ),          .

   ,      ,         ,     .     ,  ,    ,   .    ,     :      ,     ,   ,     ,   ,     .        ,    ,    ,   ,                .

   ,    ,     -   . 蠖     ;           .     ,  ,      (堖   ,     )[100 -     : B. Popik, First Draft of History (Journalism), BarryPopik.com (http://barrypopik.com/), http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/first_draft_of_history_journalism/ (http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/first_draft_of_history_journalism/).]. -  ,  ,  ,  堖   ,       .       , ,        ,              .             [101 -     : Galtung & Ruge 1965.].

         -    ,          :         ,       [102 -  : Kahneman 2011; Slovic 1987; Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein 1982; Tversky & Kahneman 1973.].         .      ,           :    ,      ,  ,             ,      .             ,   , ,    ,  ,  ,     ,  ,     ,        .      堖 ,    k,  ,   k  ?     .       k        (ankle, ask, awkward, bake, cake, make, take),      ,    ,  keep, kind, kill, kid  king    .

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 ,    ,       ,       .  ,              ,     ,         , ,  ,     ,       [104 -      ( ): Bohle 1986; Combs & Slovic 1979; Galtung & Ruge 1965; Miller & Albert 2015.]. ,   ,      ꠖ      ,     ,         ,          .

      .               .   - ,    ,        .  2016 :           77%       ,              [105 -      ,   Investors Business Daily: TIPP, March 28April 2, 2016, http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-distrust-on-what-obama-does-and-says-on-isis-terror/ (http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-distrust-on-what-obama-does-and-says-on-isis-terror/).].          :            , ,   ,  ,     ,   ,       [106 -  : Jackson 2016. Johnston & Davey 1997; McNaughton-Cassill 2001; Otieno, Spada, & Renkl 2013; Ridout, Grosse, & Appleton 2008; Unz, Schwab, & Winterhoff-Spurk 2008.].  ,    , , :   ?      ,     ,         [107 - J. Singal, What All This Bad News Is Doing to Us, NewYork, Aug. 8, 2014.].

,             ,     ,      ?   : .          ?  , , , , , ?      ?   ,      ,          ,         ,      ,    .  ,    ,      ,  ,  ,     .

       [108 -  .   .      . .:  -, 2020.  .] (The Better Angels of Our Nature),   2011,       , ,          ,  .  ,             ,    .           ,          .                        .           ,     .         ,      ,    .         ,     ,       .   1950-      ⻠  ,  , ,   .

             .  , ,   ,         ,       ,        1945.          [109 -  : Eisner 2003; Goldstein 2011; Gurr 1981; Human Security Centre 2005; Human Security Report Project 2009; Mueller 1989, 2004a; Payne 2004.].

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,      ,        -                 .       (, ,     )   ,        ,    .      ,   ,  ,     .        ,        1960-   1990-              1960-  1970- .        ,     ,       ,         .      ,      [110 -    : Deutsch 2011, pp. 64, 76, 350; Berlin 1988/2013, p. 15.].   ,         .

 ,               .     ,    ,       (     ),    ,       ,      .     2016  The NewYork Times       ,       .

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    ,      .  ,     ,    [111 -  .  :  .       . .:  -, 2019. 608 . . .] (The Blank Slate),   ,       ,    , ,  ,     .   ,      ,   ,     ,         .   ,   ,                    .

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       頖  ,    :        ,     .         ,     [112 - Deutsch 2011, p. 193.][113 - . . . .].


   , ,      .  -        ,  ,     ,  ,   .      ,   ,   ,          .          .       (         ),        (    ) ,         ,     .       :      .        ,     ,   , [114 -    : . 19. : Pinker 2011, pp. 21022.].        .   19  21         .     :    (   ),   -  ;   ,  ,     .

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   堖   ?     젖   ?     ?       ?  ࠖ   ?  젖   ?     ?  ࠖ   ?         ?

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     ,    :   [115 -  : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001; Rozin & Royzman 2001.].         ,   [116 -  , 1982.].   ,     ,         ?     ,   ,     ?    ,                 ,     :      .          (    ).      ,       ?   頖     ?  ,    ,   , ,       ;    :    .         .   ,     ,    ,     ,   ,       ,   . ( ,     ,          ,   [117 -    : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001; Schrauf & Sanchez 2004.].)

        .     ,   ,      ,  ,     [118 -   : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001.].        :       .      ,     ,  :           ,        ,       頖    [119 -    : Eibach & Libby 2009.].      ,         .

       , , ,      .         ,      ,              ,          ,  [120 - Connor 2014; . Connor 2016.].   ,  ,    ,       ,    ,       ,       ,  ,       . -            ,           .

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  :        ,    ,     ,       - [122 - M. Housel, Why Does Pessimism Sound So Smart? Motley Fool, Jan. 21, 2016.].  -   ,    ,    ,   ,            ,   ,                .            (    - ),     ,  ,        ,     [123 -       (1991)     (2003).].

          .      , , , ,    ,     ,         .          :     , 젖  ,   .    1651  ,            ,    [124 - . . .].

, ,    .      ,      ,         .   ,     蠖   .        ,          ,         .    ,         .       ,           ,     2011  .            ,            ,    ,   ,    .

          ,      .      2016  The NewYork Times               :



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       ,       ( ,  ,    ),             ,          ,  堖  젖   ,               .

      ,     ,   ,  ,   ?  ,       ,     .        ,   ,   ,    The NewYork Times  1945  2005,          130   19792010.                 ,  , ,   .    .41.        ,    ,  ,         . The NewYork Times       1960-   1970-,   (  )    1980-  1990-,             .            1970-    .

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.41.  , 19452010

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   ,             ,  .       ,     -,    Our World in Data  , Human Progress    Gapminder  . (      TED  2007,       ,    .)        蠖   ,         :  (Progress),   (The Progress Paradox),   (Infinite Progress),   (The Infinite Resource),   (The Rational Optimist),     (The Case for Rational Optimism),    (Utopia for Realists),   (Mass Flourishing),  (Abundance),    (The Improving State of the World),    (Getting Better),    (The End of Doom),   (The Moral Arc),    (The Big Ratchet),   (The Great Escape),   (The Great Surge)    (The Great Convergence)[127 -    (  ): Norberg 2016, Easterbrook 2003, Reese 2013, Naam 2013, Ridley 2010, Robinson 2009, Bregman 2016, Phelps 2013, Diamandis & Kotler 2012, Goklany 2007, Kenny 2011, Bailey 2015, Shermer 2015, DeFries 2014, Deaton 2013, Radelet 2015, Mahbubani 2013.]. (        ,               ,   ,   ,         .)  ,   ,    ,    , ,  : 5  ,     , 5 ,  2013-      , 7 ,    ,      , 26   ,  ,    ,  , 40  ,       50 ,        .       .




 5




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  .51 ,   ,               .     ,    XVIII,           35,          225,      [130 - Roser 2016n;    1543: R. Zijdeman, OECD Clio Infra.].          29.        . -     32,5,   ,    ,  , ,  -     ,          .                           [131 -   : Marlowe 2010, p. 160.    ,        (       )       478   (p. 261).      : Galor & Moav 2007.     : Deaton 2013, p. 80.].    ,     , ,                  ,        99,9%    .






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: Our World in Data, Roser 2016n,    Riley 2005 ( 2000)        ( ).    ,   



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      . 頖 :    ,      ,           .  ,         (     1960-  1970- ,         ),   ,     頖      [136 -    : N. Kristof, Birth Control for Others, NewYork Times, March 23, 2008.].

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 ,           -. ,    ,              .  ,        ,         ,    .    ,     ,       .        (Global Burden of Disease)            ,     291 ,      ,     ,         .   ,  1990         56,8    64,5  .  2010,      ,      ,  4,7,       , 3,8  [141 -        1990: Mathers etal. 2001.         2010: Murray etal. 2012; Chernew etal. 2016. ,     ,      ,      .].   ,        ,      .          ,       : 2000  2012       65   ,         80,7  82,4[142 - G. Kolata, U.S. Dementia Rates Are Dropping Even as Population Ages, NewYork Times, Nov. 21, 2016.].

     .   .54    ,      ,    . ,    ,   ,         .    -    , ,        ,     .  ,  ,  ,       ࠖ ,   ,  ,       .




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      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


     , https://share.america.gov/ru/--- (https://share.america.gov/ru/%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D1%82-%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%83%D0%B3%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%B8-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD). . .




2


  :     , 20 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address (https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address).       :            2014, .  J. L. Feder, This Is How Steve Bannon Sees the Entire World, BuzzFeed, Nov. 16, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world (https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world).   軠           ,  2016, http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016-tv-ad/ (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016-tv-ad/).   ,         .




3


: Merton 1942/1973    ,       ,     .




4


     29 2014.     ,     .




5


S.Maher, Inside the Mind of an Extremist, Oslo Freedom Forum, May 26, 2015, https://oslofreedomforum.com/talks/inside-the-mind-of-an-extremist (https://oslofreedomforum.com/talks/inside-the-mind-of-an-extremist).




6


     14 2003.   -  ,      .




7


Hayek 1960/2011, p. 47; Wilkinson 2016a.




8


. . .




9


   .. . .




10


Kant 1784/1991.




11


 ,    . .  (Kant 1784/1991)   , http://www.columbia.edu/acis/ets/CCREAD/etscc/kant.html (http://www.columbia.edu/acis/ets/CCREAD/etscc/kant.html).




12


 .  : ,   . .:  -, 2014. 581 . . .




13


Deutsch 2011, pp. 22122.




14


. . . .




15


: Goldstein 2006; Gottlieb 2016; Grayling 2007; Hunt 2007; Israel 2001; Makari 2015; Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Pagden 2013; Porter 2000.




16


    : Nagel 1997; .  21.




17


     : Pagden 2013, p. 98.




18


Wootton 2015, pp. 67.




19


. . . .




20


Scott 2010, pp. 2021.




21


     : Kitcher 1990; Macnamara 1999; Makari 2015; Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Pagden 2013; Stevenson & Haberman 1998.




22


  : Nagel 1970; Pinker 2011; Shermer 2015; Singer 1981/2011.




23


: Appiah 2006; Pagden 2013; Pinker 2011.




24


 : Hunt 2007; Pinker 2011.




25


   : Berlin 1979; Nisbet 1980/2009.




26


  : Scott 1998.




27


      : Pinker 2002/2016, pp. 17071, 40911.




28


 : Scott 1998, pp. 11415.




29


 : Hunt 2007.




30


 : Montgomery & Chirot 2015; Ridley 2010; Smith 1776/2009.




31


.  . . .




32


. . . .




33


 : Mueller 1999, 2010b; Pagden 2013; Pinker 2011; Schneider & Gleditsch 2010.




34


  : Kant 1795/1983.  : Russett & Oneal 2001.




35


  : Atkins 2007; Carroll 2016; Hidalgo 2015; Lane 2015.




36


Eddington 1928/2015.




37


     : Snow 1959/1998, pp. 1415.




38


. . . .




39


   =   : Tooby, Cosmides, & Barrett 2003.




40


: England 2015; Gell-Mann 1994; Hidalgo 2015; Lane 2015.




41


  : Dawkins 1983, 1986; Lane 2015; Tooby, Cosmides, & Barrett 2003.




42


: Goldstein 2006.




43


: Adriaans 2013; Dretske 1981; Gleick 2011; Hidalgo 2015.




44


   ,      : https://schneider.ncifcrf.gov/information.is.not.uncertainty.html (https://schneider.ncifcrf.gov/information.is.not.uncertainty.html).




45


   : Adriaans 2013; Dretske 1981; Fodor 1987, 1994.




46


   ,   : Hidalgo 2015, p. ix; Lloyd 2006.




47


 : Anderson 2007; Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 2.




48


,   : Block 1986; Fodor 1987, 1994.




49


 : Marlowe 2010; Pinker 1997/2009; Tooby & DeVore 1987; Wrangham 2009.




50


: Pinker 1994/2007.




51


 : Marlowe 2010.




52


 : Goldstein 2013.




53


  : Baumard etal. 2015.




54


 ,   .




55


. . . .




56


  : Carroll 2016; Wootton 2015.




57


    : Carey 2009; Wolf 2007.




58


 ,    : Oesterdiekhoff 2015; Pinker 1997/2009, chaps. 5, 6; Pinker 2007a, chap. 7.




59


  : Ariely 2010; Gigerenzer 2015; Kahneman 2011; Pinker 1997/2009, chap. 5; Sutherland 1992.




60


   : Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman 2011; Kahan, Peters, etal. 2013; Kahan, Wittlin, etal. 2011; Mercier & Sperber 2011; Tetlock 2002.




61


 : Johnson 2004.     : Sloman & Fernbach 2017.




62


 : Greene 2013; Haidt 2012; Pinker 2008a.




63


   : DeScioli & Kurzban 2009; DeScioli 2016.




64


 : Fiske & Rai 2015; Pinker 2011, chaps. 8, 9.




65


       : Pinker 2007a, 2010.




66


   , Writings 13:33335; Ridley 2010, p. 247.




67


 : Haidt 2012; Mercier & Sperber 2011.




68


    : Nagel 1970; Pinker 2011; Singer 1981/2011.




69


   : Twenge, Campbell, & Carter 2014. Mueller 1999, pp. 16768.    ,    ,  ,   1960-.      : Gauchat 2012. : Inglehart & Norris 2016; J. M?ller 2016; Norris & Inglehart 2016; .  20  23.




70


   : Conrad 2012; Kurlansky 2006; Pelham 2016; Sen 2005; Sikkink 2017.




71


: Berlin 1979; Garrard 2006; Herman 1997; Howard 2001; McMahon 2001; Sternhell 2010; Wolin 2004; .  23.




72


. . . .




73


       (19251926)       ,     ,        . . .




74


. . . --.




75


        (1922),  ,  .




76


  : Coyne 2015; .  23.




77


: Asafu-Adjaye etal. 2015; Ausubel 1996, 2015; Brand 2009; DeFries 2014; Nordhaus & Shellenberger 2007; .  10.




78


,   : Duarte etal. 2015; Haidt 2012; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman 2011; Mercier & Sperber 2011; Tetlock & Gardner 2015; .  21.




79


          (Herman 1997). . Nisbet 1980/2009.




80


: Bailey 2015; Brand 2009; Herman 1997; Ridley 2010; .  10.




81


     ,     ,             (Religious Trends in English Poetry). .  Nisbet 1980/2009, p. 328.




82


. . . .




83


  : Nietzsche 1887/2014.




84


       ,       ; ., ., Brockman 2003.




85


Snow 1959/1998, p. 14.




86


. . . .




87


 : Leavis 1962/2013; . Collini 1998, 2013.




88


Leavis 1962/2013, p. 71.




89


ࠖ  11-       ,   1913. . .




90


Herman 1997, p. 7.  ,    ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,     .




91


Nisbet 1980/2009, p. 317.




92


.  . .   . .




93


  : McNaughton-Cassill & Smith 2002; Nagdy & Roser 2016b; Veenhoven 2010; Whitman 1998.




94


  EU Eurobarometer, .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.




95


  Ipsos, Perils of Perception (Topline Results), 2013, https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-rss-kings-perils-of-perception-topline.pdf (https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-rss-kings-perils-of-perception-topline.pdf), .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.




96


Dunlap, Gallup, & Gallup 1993, .  Nagdy & Roser 2016b.




97


J. McCarthy, More Americans Say Crime Is Rising in U.S., Gallup.com (http://gallup.com/), Oct. 22, 2015, http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/186308/americans-say-crime-rising.aspx).




98


  堖      , , , , , , , , ,   ;     ,   .    ,    , ,   ,   ,  ,   . YouGov poll, Jan. 5, 2016, https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world/ (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/05/chinese-people-are-most-optimistic-world/).     : Dean Obeidallah, Weve Been on the Wrong Track Since 1972, Daily Beast, Nov. 7, 2014, http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm (http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm).




99


            ,         ,   barber pole. . .




100


    : B. Popik, First Draft of History (Journalism), BarryPopik.com (http://barrypopik.com/), http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/first_draft_of_history_journalism/ (http://www.barrypopik.com/index.php/new_york_city/entry/first_draft_of_history_journalism/).




101


    : Galtung & Ruge 1965.




102


 : Kahneman 2011; Slovic 1987; Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein 1982; Tversky & Kahneman 1973.




103


  : Ropeik & Gray 2002; Slovic 1987.      : Sutherland 1992, p. 11.




104


     ( ): Bohle 1986; Combs & Slovic 1979; Galtung & Ruge 1965; Miller & Albert 2015.




105


     ,   Investors Business Daily: TIPP, March 28April 2, 2016, http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-distrust-on-what-obama-does-and-says-on-isis-terror/ (http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-distrust-on-what-obama-does-and-says-on-isis-terror/).




106


 : Jackson 2016. Johnston & Davey 1997; McNaughton-Cassill 2001; Otieno, Spada, & Renkl 2013; Ridout, Grosse, & Appleton 2008; Unz, Schwab, & Winterhoff-Spurk 2008.




107


J. Singal, What All This Bad News Is Doing to Us, NewYork, Aug. 8, 2014.




108


 .   .      . .:  -, 2020.  .




109


 : Eisner 2003; Goldstein 2011; Gurr 1981; Human Security Centre 2005; Human Security Report Project 2009; Mueller 1989, 2004a; Payne 2004.




110


   : Deutsch 2011, pp. 64, 76, 350; Berlin 1988/2013, p. 15.




111


 .  :  .       . .:  -, 2019. 608 . . .




112


Deutsch 2011, p. 193.




113


. . . .




114


   : . 19. : Pinker 2011, pp. 21022.




115


 : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001; Rozin & Royzman 2001.




116


 , 1982.




117


   : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001; Schrauf & Sanchez 2004.




118


  : Baumeister, Bratslavsky, etal. 2001.




119


   : Eibach & Libby 2009.




120


Connor 2014; . Connor 2016.




121


    : Amabile 1983.




122


M. Housel, Why Does Pessimism Sound So Smart? Motley Fool, Jan. 21, 2016.




123


      (1991)     (2003).




124


. . .




125


D. Bornstein & T. Rosenberg, When Reportage Turns to Cynicism, NewYork Times, Nov. 14, 2016.    : Gyldensted 2015, Jackson 2016,  Positive News (www.positive.news (http://www.positive.news/)).




126


   : 1.     . 2.    . 3.       . 4.   . 5.    . 6.   /,    . 7.   . 8.      [] .




127


   (  ): Norberg 2016, Easterbrook 2003, Reese 2013, Naam 2013, Ridley 2010, Robinson 2009, Bregman 2016, Phelps 2013, Diamandis & Kotler 2012, Goklany 2007, Kenny 2011, Bailey 2015, Shermer 2015, DeFries 2014, Deaton 2013, Radelet 2015, Mahbubani 2013.




128


World Health Organization 2016a.




129


Hans and Ola Rosling, The Ignorance Project, https://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/ (https://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/).




130


Roser 2016n;    1543: R. Zijdeman, OECD Clio Infra.




131


  : Marlowe 2010, p. 160.    ,        (       )       478   (p. 261).      : Galor & Moav 2007.     : Deaton 2013, p. 80.




132


Norberg 2016, pp. 46 and 40.




133


 : Roser 2016n.     : Case & Deaton 2015.




134


Marlowe 2010, p. 261.




135


Deaton 2013, p. 56.




136


   : N. Kristof, Birth Control for Others, NewYork Times, March 23, 2008.




137


M. Housel, 50 Reasons Were Living Through the Greatest Period in World History, Motley Fool, Jan. 29, 2014.




138


World Health Organization 2015c.




139


Marlowe 2010, p. 160.




140


Radelet 2015, p. 75.




141


       1990: Mathers etal. 2001.         2010: Murray etal. 2012; Chernew etal. 2016. ,     ,      ,      .




142


G. Kolata, U.S. Dementia Rates Are Dropping Even as Population Ages, NewYork Times, Nov. 21, 2016.


