 .  XXI 
  


      -    .          .  ?    ?       , ,    ,  ,    ,       ,   .    ,      ,    ,   .       ,          .   ,       .             ,           .  .           ,     .





 

 .  XXI 








 ,       ,   ,  .   :        ,       ,     .

,    ,       , , ,       .              ,       .           . ,       2050 .    ,  , , 75%         .       ,            [1 - Michael Spence The Next Convergence  The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World].   ,  ,      ,         : ,    ,  .  ,          ,       [2 - Michael Spence. The Free Market and the Sustainability Mindset. The Moscow Times. 21.02.2012].

            , ,    ,   ?           ?

        ,  ,   ,      : -,   -,     .      ?



-

-  ,       .       [3 - . : . .    4- . . 1994;    4- . .: 1984 ., . 4, . 416-417. ( .ͅ, . 81, 99)].                 ,       .  ,    ,    1960- .,      .  -       ,   .       1968 . .   .   ,     .         .  ( , 1971 .)  .  ( , 1972 .).    ,     ,  2020-     .

     -   .   ,   ,        ,         ,    ,         .   . ,   ,  , ,        [4 -  .Յ, . 314.].    , .  :              [5 - . :  .   (Julian Simon. The Ultimate Resource, 1981, 1996). .: . 2005, . 797. ( .Յ, . 258).].      . ,   ,  ,   ,      .      .     -    [6 -  ą, . 319.].

 20 ,       ,       2012 .   ,             .   ,  2030 .           50%  ,  45%    30% . ()   .         ,     :  ,            ,    [7 - Jacob Zuma and Tarja Halonen Seizing Sustainable Development, 2012.02.06 http:// www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/zuma1/English].

       ,   ,    ,  . ,     [8 - Ernst von Weizscker. How Europe should tackle its resource constraints. Summer 2011. http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/Article/tabid/191/ ArticleID/21846/language/en-US/Default.aspx]. ,          ,      .          ,        .

     .      :    (2007 .)[9 - Richard Heinberg Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines. New Society Publishers 2007.].   . ,       1990-,   XXI          [10 - .    : Chris Clugston Increasing Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity. http://richardheinberg.com/220-peak-everything].        .    ,    ,      ,     .        ,      .     (2011 .)[11 - Richard Heinberg The End of Growth. New Society Publishers. 2011.].





       ,  . , . , .   ..,       .  ,    ,  ,        ,     .        , , , ,  ,  ,   ,     ,    .    ,  ,    ,     .

         . , . , . , . ,     ,              .        1980-    .   .        . ,  ,        ,      .           ,   2008 .     .

     ,     ,    ,  - .        .     1987 .   , , , .   . :  2000.     [12 - Peter Jay and Michael Stewart Sidgwick . Apocalypse 2000: Economic Breakdown and the Suicide of Democracy 1989-2000 by. Sidgwick & Jackson. 1987.], .      [13 - Paul Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Confict From 1500 to 2000. 1987.], .    [14 -     .   .    . . . .: -, 1999.].   2000-         .       .    2003 . . , .       ,     , :    ,     ,      ,           .     [15 -  .,  ݅, . 331, 290.].  2005 .   .   ,   :   ,      ,      [16 -  ...., .78.].          .      [17 - Niall Ferguson. The Rise and Fall of the American Empire. Penguin Group (USA), 2005. The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Confict and the Descent of the West. Penguin Group (USA), 2006.].

     2008 .,         .  ,  , ,     ,  ,       ,    .        ,      ,           .

  2008 .       .    ?[18 -  .   ? .: . 2009. 336 .],  2010 .   .      :  :      [19 - Joseph E. Stiglitz. Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy. W. W. Norton & Company. 2010.].   2011 .     . ,    10    ,        [20 -  .   . .: . 2012. 287 .].



-:

     .   [21 - Oswald Spenglers Decline of the West.],   1918 .           -                , ,   ,  ,   .    ,  ,     ,      ,      ,     ,   ,   :     ,   [22 -  .   . .:-, 2010. 1085 .].

      . ,    1852 .     :        .    ,     ,   ,   ,     [23 -  . .          , 1952;  . .   2 ., ., 1911, . 1, . 176-181 ( , . 247)]. .   1886 .  ,      ,    .   . ,    ,     XIX . ,       [24 -  .     ,       ,   ,       ,      XX .   ,  ,        .].

       . ,           ,    .        . ,   1939 .:       ,   ,      .      .  ,     1914        [25 -  , . 18.].          () ,        ,      [26 -  , . 358-360.].

        ,  . , . , . , .   .[27 - F.Braudel. On History (1980), and History of Civilizations; I.Wallerstein. Geopolitics and Geoculture: Essays on Changing World System (1992); M.Melko. Nature of Civilizations (1969); Ch.Dawson. Dynamics of World History (1978); C.Quigley. The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis (1961).]   , .    12-        . ,    ,      ,    ,  ,    -  :   ,    [28 - A.J.Toynbee. Study of History (L.: Oxford University Press, 12 vols., 1934-1961), and Civilization on Trial (N.Y.: Oxford University)].

             ,     , . ,   ,   2002 .   ,    2011 .,       2025 .  [29 - Pat Buchanan. Will America Survive to 2025  Suicide of a Superpower. 2011].      ,         , -         .



       -,   -,          . ,  , -  ?                , ,   ,     .

 ,      ,   .              .   ,     ,         ,      ,    .

        .      .           ,  ,   ,  ,    .




 



   ,    ,  ,  ,   .    , , .

  ,  

    ? ,  , ,        , .. .               :  .       ,      [30 -  .,  . . 2- . . 13, . 6  7.],  :                   腻[31 -        . (, . 123.)], ..   .      .        : ,     ,       [32 -  . ,   , . 111. ( Ѕ, . 64.)].

         ,   ,     ,      .   1615 .    .  . , . , . , . , .   .     ,     . .     ,    ,   ,     ,   .  ,       ,    ,            .   ,                           ;      [33 -  . . . VII. .-.: , 1934. . 218. ( .)].

   XIX .       .     ,        , ..         :    ,  .            .           .   ,  ,       .    .               ,        [34 -  .   .].

     ,     XIX . -    . ,     [35 -  . 100    . , 2005, . 89. ( ., . 20).].    .             .     ,  .  ,   . ,     ,     [36 -  .     . . . 1968 . 145. ( ., . 19)].      ,  . ,    ,    [37 -  .     . . . 1968 . 233. ( ., . 22)].

 ,   ,         ,       .    . ,     . [38 -        ,       养,        . ( ., . 148).]  ..,        .          ,               -  ,     [39 - Hume D. A Treatise on Human Nature [1740]. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1978 [ .     //  . :  2 . .: , 1996. . 1]. ( ą, . 82).].

      1902 .,    .     .  , .  :     ,   , ,         .          ,               [40 -  .   . . 1. .: -, 1993. . 69.].     ,  ,     ,   ,       .

      ,          XX .,   1917 .   1930- .        :    . . .             [41 -          .  .  .   . .: . 2011.]:




 


 

       . , . , . , ,  .           ,       .

   .    1912 .     .       . , .  ,           ,   ,   ;      .  ,  ,     ,              [42 - Mises L. von. The Theory of Money and Credit. 2nd ed. Irvington-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Foundation for Economic Education, 1971. P. 402. ( ̅, . 354)].

     ,    .       .  :           [43 - . . .  . .: , 2001. . 800. ( ̅, . 354)].  1924 . .  ,   .   ,          ,      [44 - Machlup F. Tribute to Mises. The Mont Pelerin Society, 13 September 1974. P. 12. ( ̅, . 355).].



      ,   [45 -        . ,    ,       1926 .    . . Babson R. W. Actions and Reations: An Autobiography of Roger Babson. 2nd ed. New York: Harper Collins, 1950. p. 1950. P. 267. . : Smith E.L. Yankee Genius: A Biography of Roger W. Babson. New York: Harper & Brothers, 1954. Pp. 262-270.  Wall Street Journal (6 September 1929), ( ̅, . 361-362).].   ,     ,    .      . ,   Chase Manhatten k,        [46 - Anderson . . Commodity Price Stabilization. A False Goal of Central Bank Policy // The Chase Economic Bulletin 9, no. 3. 8May 1929. P. 4. ( ̅, . 352)].     1927 .     3,5%, .  :               [47 - Anderson . . Commodity Price Stabilization. A False Goal of Central Bank Policy  The Financial Situation // The Chase Economic Bulletin 9, no. 6. 22 November 1929. P. 4. ( ̅, . 353).].

     .             The Annalist, -  New York Times,    1920-  ,            .   1929 . .  :    ,     ,         [48 - Harwood E. . The Probable Consequences to Our Credit Structure of Continued Gold Exports. The Annalist. 23 March 1928.     ,  ,  : Cause and Control of the Business Cycle. 5th ed. (Great Barrington, Mass.: American Institute for Economic Research, 1932/1957. P. 63-66); Harwood E. C. Speculation in Securities vs. Commodity Speculation. The Annalist. 15 February 1929. ( ̅, . 363).].


. ,    1921 .   1929 .        60%[49 - Rothbard M. Americas Great Depression. Kansas City: Sheed and Ward, Inc., 1975. P. 89.].  ,                  [50 - Rothbard M. N. The New Deal and the International Monetary System // The Great Depression and New Deal Monetary Policy. San Francisco: Cato Institute, 1980. P. 85.      : Watershed of Empire: Essays on New Deal Foreign Policy. Liggio L. P., Martin J. J., eds. Colorado Springs: Ralph Myles, 1976. ( ̅, . 356).].        ,  . ,   [51 - Rothbard M.N. America Great Depression. San Francisco: Cato Institute, 1980, . 147. ( ̅, . 358).].   .

       ?

. ,    , :     .               ,      .            ?    :      ,      ,                     .    ,       , ,  ,  [52 - Mises L. Geldwertstabilisierung und Konjunkturpolitik. Jena, 1928. s. 56-61. ( Å, . 66)].

          ,     [53 - ,   :   . .: 2002, . 188-189. ( , .47)].   ,     ,   :        ,       ,           [54 - Neisser H. Notenbankreiheit? // Weltwirfschaftliches Archiv.Bd. 32, s. 446-461 ( Å, . 66)].             (..    ), ,   ,     .       ,      . :



.    [55 -              ,   ,       ,         .]:

,   ,    ,         ,     ,        ,        - ,       养[56 - .    . .  1868, ., 1895. ( .ͅ, . 306).]

                 ;         ;  ,     ,        ,  [57 -     ,        , ,   ..  XVI .    ,  XVIII . .  XVI .    ,  XVII . ,  XVIII .  . ,    . .         ,           ,      .].[58 - .    . .  1868, ., 1895. ( .ͅ, . 306).]




     . ,            [59 -  .       ,       .].             (1817 .). «        :     [60 -  ą, . 148.]     ,    ,            .



        .   1898 .:         ( )  .     ,  ,  ,   ,    .           ,          ,    .              ,    .   ,          ,     ,         廅 ,   ,  ,      ⻅[61 -  . THE ECONOMIC BASIS OF IMPERIALISM The North American Review. 1898. September. Vol. 157. ( . :   /. .. : , 2007. 399 .)]

  .      ,           ,      ,     .       ,     ,     [62 -             ,      腻( ą, . 148.)].  ,          ,      ,         .          1919  1929 .:           43%,      34%[63 - http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/historyonline/us34.cfm].


.         , . 1 (1867 .).  ,       , ..     ,    .  ,   . ,   , ,   ,     ,         ( ),      ,  ,       (..    ).

      ,     ,       .         .     ,         ,       ,    .



      .   ,          ,      ,           [64 -  .     . Lilalex. . 1993].          .     ,    .            [65 -     ,           ,          ,     .  ,  .    1990- .,      10%  ,  10%   ,  80%    ,    ,  ,  .],[66 -  ̅, . 18.].

              .  ,         ,       .    . ,         [67 -  ̅, . 6.].

      .         ,    :  ,   ,     [68 -       . .: , 1962, . V, . II, . 600. (. . ( ͅ, . 255)).].   ,   1921 .    . ,               ,        [69 -  .     ,    ,   1921 .   . (- ..  . .: , 2007  704 ., . 271.)].

          .      . ,   1917 .       ,  . ,        1904 .[70 - Silvio Gesell, Die Naturliche Wirtschaftsordnung, Rudolf Zitzmann Verlag, Nuremberg, 1904 (IXth. Edition 1949)].    ,      1918 .,          .  :   ,          ,    :  !,      ,   :       ,    ,     25 ,       ,    .      .         .      ,     ,      .      .      ,             ,     .        ,      [71 - Zeitung am Mettag, Berlin, 1918. ( ̅, . 82).].      ,  . .


   ,      -       .     .            .        ,       .   ,     ,   ,       ,  .



          .  (1926.).   ,          , , ,         .      . ,       (1944.) :        .       - ,         .            [72 -  .  :      . .: , 2002. [1944]. . 41. .    ,  .       1961 ., Down with Primitivism: A Thorough Critique of Polanyi (http://www.mises.org.fullstory.aspx?Id=1607). ( , . 23)].


. .    ,   1930- .     ,  ,             .           ,       ,          ,         .




    


        ,       .   .      :                ,   ,        [73 -  . ̅, . 294.].   .             .

        .   .                . ,   . ,        ,        [74 -  , . 288.].        :       ,           .

    1940- .    .          .          :             ,                   ,          ,   ,          ,        [75 -  .   .].

    ,    ,         ,            .  ,    ,   ,        .           . , ,      .



        . . .  , :       ,     .    ,         ,  ,  .                 [76 - Alan Reynolds, What Do We Know About the Great Crash? National Review, November 9, 1979, p. 1416. 1416.].

   ()    .       ,     . :  1930-      ,        [77 -  , . 39.].           () [78 -   .         .         !   ,       1890, 1893, 1899,1901,1903  1907 .,       .             ,   ,  .   1959 .     .  ,          65% ,    .    ,           ,   ,     ,   . ( .,  ., . 283).]. ,   1945 .       ,    ,   ,  .      ,   .         ,     ,      . [79 -  .  ݅, . 281.].    1945-1969 .          .         3,7 ,      [80 - Galbraith J. The Great Crash 1929. Boston, 1979, p.191.].

    1973-1974 .,      ,    2001 .,    [81 -  .  ݅, . 281.].       ,          ,        .      ,       ,          .

    



      .        ,   ,          ,    ,       .

 ?  .

   ,  ,      [82 -  , . 47.].





  


  

. [83 - More Answers for Japan, Investors Business Daily (September 11, 1998): A6. ( .  ݅, .293).]

  ()            1929 .   ,     [84 - Dominguez K.M., Fair R.C., Shapiro M.D. Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale American Economic Rewiew. September 1988. ( ̅, . 336)].   .   ,           [85 - Schwartz A. Understanding 1929-1933 //Money in Historical Perspective. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987. P.30 ( ̅, . 339)].         ,  ,                 1929 1933 .[86 - Friedman M., Schwartz A.L. A Monetary History of United States 1867-1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1963 p. 299-300. ( ̅, . 339).]



      (2) , .[87 - http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1997/97-011.pdf]




   , .     ,           ,       . .   .       ,    , ,     .   ,  .        ,   .     2002 .        ,   90- . , :        []:       ,   .    .        [88 - Speech by Ben Bernanke, November 8, 2002, The Federal Reserve Board, retrieved January 1, 2007 saying on Nov. 82002 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_Great_Depression)].

    () ,  . ,   ,             :           ,        ,  ,           1929 .      ,      [89 -  υ, . 15.].

        .    . ,  ,           :      ,    -     [90 - Hawtrey R.G. Trade and Credit. London. 1928, p.98. ( Å, . 36, 33)].



    ,            ,        .       ,        ( )   .

   ,            . ,  . ,                    ( )[91 -  .    , . 380.].          :   .   1929 .           7%        [92 - George . Robinson, Monetary Mischief, New York: Columbia University Press, 1935, p. 37 ( Å, . 271).].


,     .      ,     ,          . ,    1930 .      6  4%,   (    )      .         .       . ,  ,            .

     ,    ,    ,      .      ,        ( ~6  . 1929 .  ~7   1933-)    ,     ~27  ~20  .   1935 .,      0,14%,    .      ,       .       .     ,        ,       - .

.   .    .   ,    ,    ,     ,      .  ,  .   . ,     ,            [93 - Friedman M., Schwartz A.J. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. N.Y.: National Bureau of Economic Research, [1963] 1993. P. 411-415.].

    . ,      1930- ., ,       .       ,                    .          1930-,            ,     [94 - . Beckoning Frontiers (New York, Alfred A Knopf, 1951), pp.54, 71-81 ( Ѕ, 13.)].

      ()      ,  ,  ,      , ,          , .. .                XX ,        .

 ,            , ..       .      ,        ,     .   ,          ,      .

                .        .    ,    [95 - ,     ,      .].         : , ,   .



         ,  ,  ,          ,            ,      ,       ,   : ,  , ,  ,    ..          ,               ..

   ,   . ,    - . ,       .     :      ,     ;          3-4%   (..        .),      ,    (         );        .

            ,    ,     ,       ,    .


  .      ,     -   ,        .







     .

. [96 -  , . .]

           1970- .,   .



            1960- .   1970- .         3 4 .        13%  ~14%  , ~24%  , ~7%  , ~11%  .       ,  ,     [97 -  (  ): ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/ cpiai.txt; : www.bls.gov/bls/unemployment.htm].


              .                .        1965 1970 .         ,   -.



  ,  %     CF,  .[98 -      Historical Statistics of the United States, colonial times to 1970 part 2 ( /  ) (US Historical Statistics,  2)]




        .   1971 .  .         .   . ,    .               [99 -  .., . 309.].

 ,   -,        ,     ,     :



      ,  ,           ,    ,      , ..      -   .      [100 -  ƅ, . 35.].

         .     -  . .       ,     . Wall Street Journal        [101 -  ƅ, . 29-36.].      ,      .                ,     .


     -         [102 - -  6-  (1964-1967 .)    ,       ,      .       ,     (1957.)       1960- .].   ,   1970 .,   . ,      1913 . 11,9%     [103 - Paul Krugman, Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1995), 327362, 331; Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, and Douglas A. Irwin, Is Globalization Today Really Diferent Than Globalization a Hundred Years Ago?, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7195, June 1999, 28. C. - Kevin H. ORourke and Jefrey G. Williamson, Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999). ( , . 86)].   -    :   ,     ,          .   ,              .



  . ,       ,          ,       [104 - . , . 79.].          1966 .       1967 .  8 ,  1969 .   26  .[105 -  .., . 296.]


        .        ,   1970 .    .      ()          400    [106 -  υ, . 63,64.].    ,   , ,             [107 -   :  ,   .].    . ,     ,    [108 -  υ, . 63.].



         1970 .              .  ,    1971 .  10%-   ,         .        ,         ,     ,           .     1972 .   45%,   1973 .   .      ,   1973  1978 .     ,  .     [109 -  ..,  .. .  . .: , 1996. 848 ., . 531.].            .


       .  ,      ,    ,   ,   --.      ,    ,    ,    [110 -      .  ,   . ,           ,       (Friedman . .). ,      ,   ,   ..].           .

          ,         .     .       ,        .    .

  ,    ,       .    ?

    , ,       .           ,       .      , ..       .      .       ,       :



  ,     , %[111 - Central Bank Gold Reserves. An historical perspective since 1845 by Timothy Green. www.gold.org http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/spending_chart_1900_2016USp_H0sH0lH0f (  1950-1987,  2)]




        ,    1970-      ,   [112 - ,     ,   ,             . ,  ,    ,      ,  .].    .        .        1975 .            ,      ,    ,   ,  軻[113 -  , . 80.].

      . ,      1981 .   .        :        ;            [114 - . , . 70.]. .     .      ,    ,    ,   , .        .            ( 40%  1981  1985 .)        ( 188%  1980  1988 .).         ,         ,   .              1980  1987 .   3,5 [115 - http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview].

          [116 -  8        12,5  4,5%,      7,5  5,3%,    9,6%  1982-1983 .].   18   1982  2000 .     Dow Jones   12                 . (           3,5 )[117 - http://www,usgovernmentrevenue,com/us_real_gdp_history].      ,       . ,   .   . ,       [118 -  .,  ݅, . 309.].    . ,   :  1980-      [119 -  ̅, . 8.].

                1987 .     껠 19 ,         ,     1929 .,     .         ,          . .

  ,        [120 -  , . 116.].       .    ,    ,     .   .   2007 .,    ,     ,    .      ,        10-      16     ѻ[121 -  , . 373.].

    ?

   ,  . ,       [122 -  , . 228.].     ,        :      [123 -  , . 365.].          ,         [124 -         ,     . ,      1986 .,      1989 .][125 -  , . 365.].           , ,              [126 -  , . 365.].           [127 -   ,                  ,  ,                  ,     .         .   ,   :          ,            . ( ., . 366).].      ( )  1992 . ,      .



    10- -    [128 - : http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/spending_chart_1900_2016USp_H0sH0lH0f; 10 http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm#fn1 (10,  6)]






   ,            ,  ,     .                 .           ,  . ,      - [129 - ,       1980  1990 .    ,   2006 .     17 .],[130 -  , . 369.].   ,            ,       ,  ,           [131 -  , . 351.].


 ,     ,   (  ),     .             . :      ,      [132 -  , . 329.]. ,           , ..          .

           ,       . ,  . ,     ,      .   ,  - .    ,  ,  -[133 - Muravchik J. The imperative of American Leadership. A Challenge of Neo-Isolationism. Washington, 1996, p.36. ( . .    I )].  ,   . ,    ,      :  1990- .  ,              ,            ,      .     ,   ,   [134 -  .,  ݅, . 178.].

    .                  XXI .

         1990- .,          ,      .     ,       [135 -          ,                 ,    .        .].              (1998-2001 .).           .       ,     ,     27,8%  1989 .  53,9%  1998 .    10  ,    1929 .,           5%  .

      :           .     2000 .,   2000 .   2002 .       78%[136 -   NASDAQ 9  2000 .       5048,86 . 9 2002 .        1114,11 . www.google.com/fnance/historical?q= IDEXNASDAQ:COMPX. ( , . 403).].    ,       .

      ,      ,     .   .   2002 .:      [137 -         ,               ,   ,         30  40%     . ( , . 31,360).].    ,      .   ,       [138 - .  30  2002 . Newsweek ( , . 230).].            ,     ,  General Motors, 70%    2004 .    ,    [139 - . , . 200.].



           1998 .  10    2008 .,     OFHEO National Housing Index   66%.   Case-Schiller  10     144%[140 - HELEEN MEES. Changing Fortunes. How Chinas Boom Caused the Financial Crisis. 2012 http://repub.eur.nl/res/pub/34930/EPS2012266MKT9789058923110.pdfhttp://www.fnmarket.ru/z/nws/hotnews.asp?id=3031063&].


      . ,  . ,       ,  ,            .               ,   , ,     ,      .  ,                     [141 -  , . 333, 345.].

      15 ,       .  2003 . :     ,       [142 - .   ,  University of Chicago,       . ( .., . 24.)].           .      ,    ,         (..   )[143 -  υ, . 24.].

  .    .        ?


* * *

   . ,  .           (1929 .)     ,    ?            - . ,      .            ,   ,     ,     腻[144 - Kindleberger C. The World in Depression, 2nd ed., Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986, p. 100-102 ( υ, . 267)]. ..    ,      .      ?

   .    : -,            ,  ,   ; -,          ,         .

  ,   .    .  ,         -    :         1930 .           ,     [145 - Hawtrey R.G. Capital and Employment. London. 1937, p.86. ( Å, .35)].        .          ,       .           1929 .    ,                -   [146 -      ,      ,  ,  ,   ,       ..          1930- . (.   .     .  . .: . 2012.)].



     1927 .,    ,          ,    -          ,    .  ,  -        , ,  ,       .


                ,      1920-   . ,  1923-1929 .     32%,      8%,      62%,     65%[147 - Robert S. McElvaine, 38-39.].       ,       .

  Brookings Institute,  1929 . 0,1%      ,  42% ,   34%  ,   ,  80%     [148 - (  1920-1940) http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/historyonline/us34.cfm]. 1%   59%     15%   .



  ,    5%  [149 - Robert S. McElvaine, 38. .  : G. William Domhof. Wealth, Income, and Power September 2005 (updated January 2011) (http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.htm.],     , %




    .    .            ,          .               ,         .

.      1922 .   ,     ,                    [150 -  .., . 95-97.].    ,   ,   . ,      (19341948 .),         . ,        [151 -  Å, . 149.].    ,   ,    :    ,     [152 - .  Beckoning Frontiers (New York, Alfred A Knopf, 1951), pp.54, 71-81 ( Ѕ, 13-14.)].



       [153 - .  Beckoning Frontiers (New York, Alfred A Knopf, 1951), pp.54, 71-81 ( Ѕ, 13).]




     .

        ,      .   ,     ,      1903 .   . :     ,      ,     ,  ,   ,   , ,    ,    [154 -  , . 235.].

.   1922 .,    , :       : ,  .  , ,      [155 -  Å, . 210.].       ,     -  [156 -  Å, . 227.].            [157 -  Å, . 228.]. .   1934 .          ,    ,      ,        ,           ,       [158 -  .  28  1934 ( ԅ, . 66)].



    .    :   , ,   ,      ,  ,     .           .  ,        ,   ,  .         ,            [159 -  .      . ( .ȅ, .137).].


    . :       :             [160 -  .., . 96.].

  1930- .   ,  . ,         ,      .      ,      ,        ,       ,           ,   ,            .   1936 .[161 - .   .  20.05.1936. (-  1934-1939, . 443).].




 



                   .

. [162 -  , . 9, 29.]

   XX .   .       , ..         , ,  . ,            [163 -  , . 336.].         .   .         [164 -  , . 281.].

   XXI .          1990-.            .              ,   subprime mortgage    . ,       ,  . ,   , :   ,     [165 -  ̅, . 42.]. .         [166 -  , . 301.].    . :          ,     [167 -  .          . .:  . 2013. 246 ., . 232.].

              . .            [168 - ISDA          1986 .   Salomon Brothers.   CDS   J.P. Morgan   1990- .]  :  ,           ,       ,    .  ,      ,   [169 -  , . 355.].



,   ,      [170 -            . , . , . , . ,     ,              .       ,    1998 .  Long-Term Capital Management    -,  .   . .].      1994 .,    1995 .       Barings Bank,   ,           ,  ,  .   X. ,     [171 -  .,  X].

. ͸,    Bundesbank,   1993 .    ,               [172 - Wilhelm Nolling, Die Finanzwelt for sich selbst schutzen, in: Die Zeit, 5.11.1993. ( .-.,  X)].    -  .  ,   ,          ,      .       ,   [173 - Felix Rohatyn, Globale Finanzmarkte: Notwendigkeiten und Risiken, in: Lettre international, Nr. 46, Herbst 1994, und: America in the year 2000, Vortrag beim Bruno Kreisky Forum, 8.11.1995, Wien. ( .-.,  X)].

 1995 . .         ,      ,       [174 - Handelsblatt, 13.4.1995. ( ,  X)]. . ,           , :       .     [175 - Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 27.1.1995. ( .,  X)].


,   . ,      : ,            ?      ,       ,        [176 -  , . 230.].     ,    2007 .:      ,     ,   2008 .:   ,     ,      ,  , [177 -  , . 59, 13.],[178 -     ( 2007 .):                .    ,                   .    . ,     , ,     ,        10%. ( ̅, . 183,179-180,102).].

  ,         :                      ,            50 .

      ,  ,        ,       ,        ,   ,   .     ,    [179 -  , . 345.].

   ,   ,  ,  ,        ,   ,              [180 -  , . 338.].

          :

Financial Times     2004 ., ,       [181 -  ƅ, 71-75.].     . ,    Morgan Stanley Asia, :  ,      ,          ,   ,       [182 -  ƅ, 71-75.].

 2006 . . ,        ,     .  ( ,         ),         ,   ,       [183 -  ƅ, 71-75.].       2007 .:    ,  $48 ,        軻[184 -  ,    ,    2008 .  500  .  ,     (,               ),     ,  600  .   2007 . DTCC      1,09  .,    20      .].

    . ,   , :  ,      ,     ,     ,    25 .    .  ,  -,      .   , ,        ,    [185 -  .   ,  2008 .].



            30%    ,        50%  .         .    2007-2009 .    5  .      ,          , .. 15  ,     [186 -  , . 357, 30, 113.].

     .           ,     [187 - .   .  ].          .  ,  . ,      2009 .           ,  -       ,    ,  17,5%,       [188 -  , . 97.],[189 -    http://www.shadowstats.com/,                25%.].   2009 .                32         ( 1964 .).


                ,  CNN,        :



      ,  %,   CNN[190 -     Total good. CNN Opinion Research Corporation June 3-7, 2011.]




   ,    2000 ,  ,       ,   2009 .   5 .     CNN,     ,     40 ,  42%   2000 .  1%   2009 .,      [191 - CNN Opinion Research Corporation June 3-7, 2011.].

      .

      2004 .,            .        ,    .    2006 .,     ,      .       :     Dow Jones    35%[192 - Dow Jones Industrial Average].      ,     ,      ,     ,    2007 .        .      ,         [193 - http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-brent&months=120 (  1995-2012,  2)].    2008 .   ,       ,         .          ,  ,    2009 .             .

     ,      2-3-         [194 -  Dow Jones   2009 .    2 ,        2008 . http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html].

         ,      ,    .        ,     ,          .        (quantitative easing; QE)[195 - . : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing].      2007 .,     QE     2008 .,       .



       ,        19201930- .      ,      .


        ,    2,5 ,   09.2008,    3 [196 -  2,8 . http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/ ( )].       ?     . :           .   ,           ,      .      . ,  ,     ,        ,       [197 -  , . 228.].      ,   2008 .



  ,       (),  . ,   ,  ,        ,     .  ,     .    ,      [198 -     ,   .   . ,      ,    . . ,    The Classical Stationary State (1943 .).].  ,   , -  (   1929 .)  , ,          (bailout)  QE,   (2)  .




     (2/)    (),  .[199 -    : http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/  http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/fedstl/m2sl+1 ( .  4)]




          ,           ,      .      2012 .,        QE3       Twist,    85  . .  ,        3  .

   /      ,   .   2012 .           :           2014 .,      2%.



   :  ,  %  ,     (19802012 .)[200 -   (Federal funds (efective)): http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm#fn1. : http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf  (Consumer Price Index): http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ (Debt 1900-2016,  4)]




     ,                ,  , , ,  ,     ,      .    2012 .    .        . ,    .    2007 .     [201 -  .  I.O.U.S.A. 2008. http://doccinema.ru/documentalnie-flmizarubejnoe/485-ya-dolzhen-ssha.html].  2009 .       .  . ,           , :  - ,     ,     [202 - http://www.dollar-usd.ru/gosdolg-14.htm .         ,      .  12.11.09 http://slon.ru/world/vyhod_iz_situacii_ya_vizhu_v_krushenii_dollara-175021.xhtml].



 20112012 .        ,         .   . ,    . ,   . [203 - Sen. Tom Coburn M.D., John Hart. The Debt Bomb: A Bold Plan to Stop Washington from Bankrupting America. 2012; Peter Ferrara Americas Ticking Bankruptcy Bomb: How the Looming Debt Crisis Threatens the American Dream-and How We Can Turn the Tide Before Its Too Late. 2011; Peter Schif The Real Crash: Americas Coming Bankruptcy-How to Save Yourself and Your Country 2012]. H youtube        [204 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYNQQVJ5Kf4].


          .       ,       ,    ,  ,       .      : 2011 .     () ,    2012  2013 .               -.   2013 .          10    $1,2 .     ,  ,     60%  ,          .

    ,   ,         .                . ,   ,        [205 - Laura Tyson Feb. 25, 2013 http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-government-spending-and-economic-recovery-by-laura-tyson].      2013 .            ,        [206 - Bernankes Welcome Lecture on Austerity Economics 28.02.2013. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/02/bernanke-lectures-gop-on-austerity-economics.html http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20130227/206415031.html#ixzz2M6o5lqZr].

        ,  . ,     :                 ,     ,   . ,    ,  [207 - http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/delong123/English].  ,   ,    ,     ,      ,         .      ,    . [208 -  . , . 52, 72.],   . ,  ,      ,        ,     [209 -         . 12.02.2013. http://www.terra-america.ru/potolok-gosudarstvennogo-dolga-usa-eto-fkciya.aspx].

         ,      .  ,     ,        ,  :        [210 - http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/__].

           :   ,  04.2011 . ,  Goldman Sachs,           [211 -  daily 20.04.2011.].  -   2013 .        2009 .   -,  Financial Times   The Economist, -       ,          .      2013 .      [212 - http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/9424921/predprinimateli_obreli_optimizm#ixzz2LusoZ6pe].

       .       . :          ,         [213 - http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel/2012/03/13/roubini-bremmer-fp-interview-200-oil-and-the-moscow-beijing-alliance/].   . ,     ()        ໅     , ,     ,     [214 -  , . 352, 337, 349, 351.].       . :           ,            [215 - Bernankes Welcome Lecture on Austerity Economics 28.02.2013. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/02/bernanke-lectures-gop-on-austerity-economics.html http://www.inosmi.ru/world/20130227/206415031.html#ixzz2M6o5lqZr].

  .         : ,   ,       ,      . ,  ,        .        .          ,         [216 - .  14.09.2012 http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20120914033948.shtml].

            ,     ,       ,    ,    .

         ,   .  ,      ,           .      ?        .    .    1939 . :     . -  




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/vasiliy-galin/poslednyaya-civilizaciya-politekonomiya-xxi-veka-2/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








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67


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,     ,      .




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155


 Å, . 210.




156


 Å, . 227.




157


 Å, . 228.




158


 .  28  1934 ( ԅ, . 66)




159


 .      . ( .ȅ, .137).




160


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161


.   .  20.05.1936. (-  1934-1939, . 443).




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 , . 9, 29.




163


 , . 336.




164


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 ̅, . 42.




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 .          . .:  . 2013. 246 ., . 232.




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ISDA          1986 .   Salomon Brothers.   CDS   J.P. Morgan   1990- .




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175


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177


 , . 59, 13.




178


    ( 2007 .):                .    ,                   .    . ,     , ,     ,        10%. ( ̅, . 183,179-180,102).




179


 , . 345.




180


 , . 338.




181


 ƅ, 71-75.




182


 ƅ, 71-75.




183


 ƅ, 71-75.




184


 ,    ,    2008 .  500  .  ,     (,               ),     ,  600  .   2007 . DTCC      1,09  .,    20      .




185


 .   ,  2008 .




186


 , . 357, 30, 113.




187


.   .  




188


 , . 97.




189


   http://www.shadowstats.com/,                25%.




190


    Total good. CNN Opinion Research Corporation June 3-7, 2011.




191


CNN Opinion Research Corporation June 3-7, 2011.




192


Dow Jones Industrial Average




193


http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-brent&months=120 (  1995-2012,  2)




194


 Dow Jones   2009 .    2 ,        2008 . http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html




195


. : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing




196


 2,8 . http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/ ( )




197


 , . 228.




198


    ,   .   . ,      ,    . . ,    The Classical Stationary State (1943 .).




199


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