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      ,      ( X, ,  Y).        -       ,         ,   .             ,      , ⠓        ,         .      ,          ,         . -     . ʠ, ⠓         ,     ,   ,    alter ego ,   .      ,    ,   - ,     [1 -       . : PavelTh. Fictional Worlds. Cambridge, Mass., 1986.].

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 ,  ,     .           .         ,  , ,     .     ,  , , ,  :

		     ,
		 , ,    ,
		 , ,  ,  
		     
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		     ,
		     
		     
		     ,
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		  ,   , 
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		  , ,   ,
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 ,               ,     ,   ,       ,   [44 - ButterfieldH.The Origins of History, ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. P.125.].


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 :  

           .     (  ),          ,      .  ,       ,    .    ,   :    . ,       .  ,  ,         ,      ,   ( ,   ,  ).       ,       :



    ,     ,     ,  ,   ,     ,          ;     , ,  ,    [51 - de LaplaceP.S.A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities / Trans. by F.W.Truscott and F.L.Emory. New York, 1902. P.4.].


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          :    ,    , ,        ,      [55 - StanfordM.A Companion to the Study of History. Oxford, 1994. P.62.].

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    ,             ;      ,      ,    , ,             ;      ,     .       ,        [56 - HegelG.W.F.Second Draft: The Philosophical History of the World (1830) // HegelG.W.F.Lectures on the Philosophy of World History. Cambridge, 1975. Pp.2630.].


          ,     .     :        ,  ,           .  ,  ,       ,   .

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            .    ,  ,     :       ,        . ,    ,      ,    ,    .         ,    , ࠓ    ,      .                  .     :      ,    . ,  ,       蔠         : () [57 - Ibid. Pp.33141.].

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    ,   ,   ,     , , ,   .                    ,      . Ƞ,     XIX,      .   ,      ,   .        ,    ,   ,                ;   ,  ,     ,   ,      .         .  , ,     ,   ,      ,      :



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                                   ,     ,   [60 - MillJ.S.Elucidations of the Science of History // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.9699, 104f.].


       ,      (   1856.)       .       :



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       (    )  :                 ,    ,   ;      .  ,            ,       ,              ,             ,        .

,     ,        ,        ,    ,  ,        ,       :



  .    ,     ,      ,         ,      .


,    ,    .    :



,   ,    ; ,  , .         ,             ,      ,               ,              ,                ,    ,       .


Ƞ  ,            ,      ,    .  ,          .

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      ,       .         ,       .   .     .  [65 - .. .I.. 32.].


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       .    ʠ           - ,   ,         ,      .   XV    ,  ,      (   ),         .        , ,        .   1761.             , ,     . ,        ? ,       ?            ,  ,  :



[]           ,     ,   .    .        ,  ,        ,     .     ,  , ..,  ,  ,  ,  ,  .


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           ; ,     ,         ,   :      ,    ,      ,   ,   , ,  ,    ,   ;   ,   ,       . Ƞ      ,  ,       !          ,     ,  ,   ,  .       锅     ,       ![74 - CarlyleTh. On History (1830) // SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. P.95.]


          , .             ,     ,      :



 ,             ;   ,   ,       ,  ,     , ,   , 108000,              , ,   ,   ! ,  ,     ,  ,  ,       ,   ,  ,    ,  ,     ,  -    , ,   ,        ,     , ,         .


      .     蠓,      , ,  :  ,  ,  ,    ,         ,  [75 - .. . . . VII. DostoevskyF.Notes from Underground / Trans. by A.R.MacAndrew. London, 1980. _Pp.105120.].

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  , ,     , ,  ,   ,    ,        []             [77 - Ibid. P.91.  .].


        ,     ,     ,    ,   ,  .     ,      , ,     [78 -       1905.    :-   : ! ,  !ߠ , ,,  !].         ,       []    .   ꠓ    :



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            ...,      ( 蠓)  .     ,      ,   ,[82 - TaylorA.J.P.The Origins of the Second WorldWar. 2


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 ,      ,  ,      .    ,  ,        ,   .    ,  ,     ,   , ,       [83 - . : SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. P.142.].     ,        ,   [84 -         ,      . .: ErmarthM. Wilhelm Dilthey: The Critique of Historical Reason. Chicago, 1978.].  ,      ,      [85 - MeineckeFr. Causalities and Values in History // SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970.  pp.269, 273.].      ,       ,       - (     ),  ,     1933.[86 - MeineckeFr. Die deutsche Katastrophe. Wiesbaden, 1949.]

Ƞ    ,      XIX.           蠖  ,  ,          .     ,    . Ѡ  ,       :        [87 - CollingwoodR.G.The Nature and Aims of a Philosophy of History (19241925) // Essays in the Philosophy of History: R.G.Collingwood / Ed. by W.Debbins. Austin, Texas, 1965. P.44.]. ,          ,        . ,      :      ;   ,  ,     [88 - CollingwoodR.G.Lectures on the Philosophy of History, 1926// The Idea of History: With Lectures 19261928/ Ed. by J. van der Dussen. Oxford, 1993. Pp.400ff.].           ,    [89 - CollingwoodR.G.The Nature and Aims of a Philosophy of History (19241925) // Essays in the Philosophy of History: R.G.Collingwood / Ed. by W.Debbins. Austin, Texas, 1965. P.36f., 39f.].   ,      ,             [90 - CollingwoodR.G.Lectures on the Philosophy of History, 1926// The Idea of History: With Lectures 19261928/ Ed. by J. van der Dussen. Oxford, 1993. Pp.390f.].

     ,       :



,      ,         []    ,           ,        :    , ,     .   ;     .   ,           ,  ,       ,    -  -,   -  .


Ƞ   ,      ⠓  , ,     ,  :  ,  ,  .       ,  ,   [91 - Ibid. Pp.363f., 412f., 420. .: MarwickA.The Nature of History. 3


 ed. London, 1989. Pp.293ff.].       :     ,         ,     .       .   ,     ,       .

 ,                 .         .       -   .   :      , ,  ,   ,     [92 - . : FischerD.H.Historians Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought. London, 1970. Pp.164f.].   ,       [93 - CroceB. Necessity in History, in Philosophy, Poetry, History: An Anthology of Essays / Trans. by C.Sprigge. London/New York/Toronto, 1966. P.558.].

      .  ,        ,      ,    :



[]     ,                .  ,    ,      .  ,      .   ,      (         ) ,     ,         ,                    ,                   ,    .


      ,      .   ,      :



  ,    ,                ,                   .


 ,  ,      ,     [94 - OakeshottM.Experience and its Modes. Cambridge, 1933. Pp.128ff.].

  ,    .     ,                   [95 - OakeshottM.On History and Other Essays. Oxford, 1983. P.71.].    ?    , ,          .   ,     ,       ,    ,       [96 - Ibid. P.79.  .]. ,    ,  ,          .

            ,   ,      (   )       .  ,       ,               XIX XX[97 - .: BentleyM. (Ed.). Public and Private Doctrine: Essays in British History Presented to Maurice Cowling. Cambridge, 1993,  Prologue, pp.113.].            [98 - EltonG.R.The Practice of History. London, 1969.  pp.42, 57, 6366.].

       .    ,   ,     ,     .             ,      . Ƞ ,       ,  ,    . ,      .       ,       .  ,        -   .    ? Ƞ ,      ,    ?  ,     ?      .


  

,     ,  ,    .   ,     1950- 1960- .,          . ʠ  ,       .

 ,          ,      1917.      ,  -     ,  ,     .        ,      , ࠖ   .        ,   ,   ,     ,           .    ,      ,         ,    [99 - .  : LearsT.J.The Concept of Cultural Hegemony: Problems and Possibilities // American Historical Review 90(1985). P.567593.].  ,         .     ,     ,       noblesse oblige      .

,     -     ... Ƞ       蠖 , ,  ,  -       ,      ?.         .  ,       ,  ,           ,       .  ,        :



    ,   .     ,   , ,        ,   ,  ,     ,      .


    .    ,      ,  ,      , ,   .   ,   ,  ,    ,     ,    ,      fait accompli.   ,     .        ,  ,      - , [ (   )]    - ?     (  ,    ),    ,        :



    []    ,    ;             .                   ,      .     ,        ,  .


,  ,          젖 젖 .     ,  ,      ,   ,     ,   .  , ,  .      .        ?  a priori  ,            ,      .   ,         [100 - Ibid. Pp.88, 95106, 126, 132, 164.].

    ...  ,                  렖      [] [101 - E.P.Thompson (Ed.). The Poverty of Theory and Other Essays. London, 1978. P.227. . : SmithD.The Rise of Historical Sociology. Cambridge, 1991. Pp.87f.].   (  ),       .     (-  ..)    ,    .         ,         锠       . ,     .

   ,        . Ƞ       .   ,     ,            ,       .       ,  ,   ,         , ,   ,   .    ,     [102 - CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


 ed. London, 1987. Pp.169f.].        , ,   ⠖        1789.       ,     : ,     ,   ()     蠓     ?[103 - HobsbawmE.The Age of Extremes. London, 1994.] -  ,      , , ,     ,         .

ʠ,            .  ,   ,      ,   (       )    .          ,     (           ).         .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/niall-ferguson/virtualnaya-istoriya-alternativy-i-predpolozheniya/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


      . : PavelTh. Fictional Worlds. Cambridge, Mass., 1986.




2


.   / ... . , 1994.




3


CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


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4


CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


 ed. London, 1987. Pp.44f., 90, 96,105.




5


ThompsonE.P.The Poverty of Theory and Other Essays. London, 1978. P.300.




6


CroceB. Necessity in History, in Philosophy, Poetry, History: An Anthology of Essays / Trans. by C.Sprigge. London/New York/Toronto, 1966. Pp.557ff.  ,  , ,     ,   .




7


OakeshottM.Experience and its Modes. Cambridge, 1933. Pp.128145.




8


HarrisR.Fatherland. London, 1992.      ,   , : DickPh.K.The Man in the High Castle. New York, 1962; BenfordG. and GreenbergM. (Eds). Hitler Victorious: Eleven Stories of the German Victory in World WarTwo. London, 1988; TsourasP.Disaster at D Day: The Germans Defeat the Allies, June 1944. London, 1994.




9


AmisK.The Alteration. London, 1976.     : RobertsK.Pavane. London, 1968. ,     ,      : MooreW.Bring the Jubilee. New York, 1953; TurtledoveH.The Guns of the South. New York, 1992.       ,        : Diaz-PlajaF.El desfile de la victoria. Barcelona, 1976; TorbadoJ.En el dia de hoy. Barcelona, 1976.      .




10


    : WellsH.G.The Shape of Things to Come: The Ultimate Revolutions. London, 1933; ChurchillR.C. A Short History of the Future. London, 1955; HackettJ. The Third World War: The Untold Story. London, 1982; ClarkW.Cataclysm: The North South Conflict. London, 1984; JayP., StewartM.Apocalypse 2000: Economic Breakdown and the Suicide of Democracy, 19892000. London, 1987; DavidsonJ.D., Rees-MoggW. The Great Reckoning: How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990s. London, 1992.




11


GibbonE.The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Vol. V (ch.III). London, 1994. P.445.




12


RenouvierCh. Uchronie (lutopie dans lhistoire): Esquisse historique apocryphe du dveloppement de la civilisation europenne tel quil na pas t, tel quil aurait pu ?tre. Paris, 1876; 2


 d, Paris, 1901. P. iii.




13


      ,     ,    .   ,  ,   (ibid., p. 31).




14


TrevelyanG.M.If Napoleon had won the Battle of Waterloo // TrevelyanG.M.Clio, a Muse and Other Essays. London, 1930. Pp.124135.     . : AronR.Victoire ? Waterloo. Paris, 1968.




15


SquireJ.C. (Ed.). If It Happened Otherwise: Lapses into Imaginary History. London/New York/Toronto, 1932.




16


    . : LewisL.If Lincoln Had Lived // RaneyM.L., LewisL., SandburgC., DoddW.E.If Lincoln Had Lived: Addresses. Chicago, 1935. Pp.1635.




17


     :   ,     蠓   .         ,  , ,    蠖      ,       ,    蠓         .




18


SnowmanD. (Ed.). If I Had Been Ten Historical Fantasies. London, 1979.




19


GibbonEd. Decline and Fall.Vol.VI (ch. lxiv). P.341.




20


ChurchillW.The World Crisis: The Aftermath. London, 1929. P.386.




21


DrayW.Laws and Explanation in History. Oxford, 1957. P.103.




22


RussellB.Dialectical Materialism // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.294f.




23


MerrimanJ.M. (Ed.). For Want of a Horse: Chance and Humour in History. Lexington, Mass., 1984.           .




24


RussellC.The Catholic Wind // MerrimanJ.M. (Ed.). For Want of a Horse: Chance and Humour in History. Lexington, Mass., 1984. P.103107.




25


Trevor-RoperH.History and Imagination // PearlV., WordenB. and Lloyd-JonesH. (Eds). History and Imagination: Essays in Honour of H.R.Trevor-Roper. London, 1981. Pp.356369.            ,          1940.:   ,    ,          .




26


VincentJ.An Intelligent Persons Guide to History. London, 1995. Pp.39f. .      Pp.45ff.




27


.: FogelR.W.The New Economic History: Its Findings and Methods // Economic History Review, 2


 series. 19(1966). Pp.64251; HuntE.H.The New Economic History // History 53, 177(1968). Pp.313.




28


FogelR.W.Railways and American Economic Growth: Essays in Interpretative Econometric History. Baltimore, 1964.      : Railways and Economic Growth in England and Wales 18401870. Oxford, 1970.




29


.: FloudR. and McCloskey D.N.The Economic History of Britain since 1700. 2


 ed. Vol. II. Cambridge, 1994.




30


EltonG.R. and FogelR.W.Which Road to the Past? Two Views of History. New Haven, 1983.




31


FogelR.W. and EngermanS.L.Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery. Boston, 1974; FogelR.W.Without Consent or Contract: The Rise and Fall of American Slavery. New York, 1989.    . : GutmanH.G.Slavery and the Numbers Game: A Critique of Time on the Cross. London, 1975.




32


    . : Baron von KruedenerJ. (Ed.). Economic Policy and Political Collapse: The Weimar Republic, 19241933. New York/Oxford/Munich, 1990.




33


 Plausible Worlds: Possibility and Understanding in History and the Social Sciences   (Cambridge, 1991).




34


Ibid. Pp.81122.




35


Ibid. Pp.123156.




36


Ibid. Pp.1ff., 10f.




37


FosterR.F.Modern Ireland, 16001972. Oxford, 1988.




38


CharmleyJ.Churchill: The End of Glory. Dunton Green, 1993.




39


ButterfieldH.The Origins of History / Ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. Pp.200f.




40


Lucr. De rerum natura 2.10591062, 10901104. ...




41


Lucr. De rerum natura 2.11731174. ...




42


Polyb. 1.14. ...  .




43


Tac. Hist. 1.4. ...




44


ButterfieldH.The Origins of History, ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. P.125.




45


 1:9.




46


ButterfieldH.The Origins of History, ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. P.207.




47


ButterfieldH.The Origins of History, ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. Pp.17680.




48


. : NagelE.Determinism in History // DrayW. (Ed.). Philosophical Analysis and History. New York/London, 1966. P.380.  .




49


VicoG.The New Science // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.18f.




50


GeylP. and ToynbeeA.Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.308ff. Π . A Study of History : MarwickA.The Nature of History. 3


 ed. London, 1989. Pp.287f.




51


de LaplaceP.S.A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities / Trans. by F.W.Truscott and F.L.Emory. New York, 1902. P.4.




52


HackingI.The Taming of Chance. Cambridge, 1990. P.14.




53


ButterfieldH.The Origins of History / Ed. by Adam Watson. London, 1981. P.135.




54


KantI.Idea of a Universal History from a Cosmopolitan Point of View (1784) // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.22f., 29. .:    -  // .  . ., 1966. . 6. . 523. ... .




55


StanfordM.A Companion to the Study of History. Oxford, 1994. P.62.




56


HegelG.W.F.Second Draft: The Philosophical History of the World (1830) // HegelG.W.F.Lectures on the Philosophy of World History. Cambridge, 1975. Pp.2630.




57


Ibid. Pp.33141.




58


ComteA.The Positive Philosophy and the Study of Society // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. P.75.




59


. : BerlinI.The Concept of Scientific History // DrayW. (Ed.). Philosophical Analysis and History. New York/London, 1966. P.28.




60


MillJ.S.Elucidations of the Science of History // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.9699, 104f.




61


. : SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. Pp.121ff., 127132.




62


BuckleH.T.History and the Operation of Universal Laws // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.114f.




63


TolstoyL.War and Peace. Vol. II. London, 1978. Pp.14001444.




64


.: RaderM.Marxs Interpretation of History. Oxford, 1979.




65


.. .I.. 32.




66


CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


 ed. London, 1987. P.101.




67


AbramsP.History, Sociology, Historical Sociology // Past and Present 87(1980). P.15. . : RaderM.Marxs Interpretation of History. Oxford, 1979. Pp.4, 8f.; E.P.Thompson. The Poverty of Theory // E.P.Thompson (Ed.). The Poverty of Theory and Other Essays. London, 1978. P.307.




68


PlekhanovG.The Role of the Individual in History // GardinerP. (Ed.). Theories of History. Glencoe, Illinois/London, 1959. Pp.144163. .: ʠ    // ..    5- . . 2. ., 1956. .300334.




69


StanfordM.A Companion to the Study of History. Oxford, 1994. P.284.      . : CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


 ed. London, 1987. P.102:    ,        .




70


ButterfieldH.The Whig Interpretation of History. London, 1931.




71


Lord Acton. Inaugural Lecture on the Study of History // McNeill W.H. (Ed.). Essays in the Liberal Interpretation of History. Chicago, 1967. P.300359.  .




72


PlumbJ.H.The Death of the Past. London, 1969,  pp.17, 77f., 97100, 129f.




73


. : HowardM.The Lessons of History // HowardM.The Lessons of History. Oxford, 1991. P.620.




74


CarlyleTh. On History (1830) // SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. P.95.




75


.. . . . VII. DostoevskyF.Notes from Underground / Trans. by A.R.MacAndrew. London, 1980. _Pp.105120.




76


. : SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. P.101.




77


Ibid. P.91.  .




78


      1905.    :

		-   : !
		 ,  !
		ߠ ,
		 ,
		,  !




79


FisherH.A.L.A History of Europe. London, 1936. P. v.




80


.: BuryJ.B.Cleopatras Nose // BuryJ.B.Selected Essays / Ed. by H.W.V.Temperley. Cambridge, 1930. Pp.6069.




81


TrevelyanG.M.Clio, a Muse and Other Essays. London, 1930. Pp.140176,  pp.157f.




82


TaylorA.J.P.The Origins of the Second WorldWar. 2


 ed. London, 1963.




83


. : SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970. P.142.




84


        ,      . .: ErmarthM. Wilhelm Dilthey: The Critique of Historical Reason. Chicago, 1978.




85


MeineckeFr. Causalities and Values in History // SternFr. (Ed.). The Varieties of History from Voltaire to the Present. London, 1970.  pp.269, 273.




86


MeineckeFr. Die deutsche Katastrophe. Wiesbaden, 1949.




87


CollingwoodR.G.The Nature and Aims of a Philosophy of History (19241925) // Essays in the Philosophy of History: R.G.Collingwood / Ed. by W.Debbins. Austin, Texas, 1965. P.44.




88


CollingwoodR.G.Lectures on the Philosophy of History, 1926// The Idea of History: With Lectures 19261928/ Ed. by J. van der Dussen. Oxford, 1993. Pp.400ff.




89


CollingwoodR.G.The Nature and Aims of a Philosophy of History (19241925) // Essays in the Philosophy of History: R.G.Collingwood / Ed. by W.Debbins. Austin, Texas, 1965. P.36f., 39f.




90


CollingwoodR.G.Lectures on the Philosophy of History, 1926// The Idea of History: With Lectures 19261928/ Ed. by J. van der Dussen. Oxford, 1993. Pp.390f.




91


Ibid. Pp.363f., 412f., 420. .: MarwickA.The Nature of History. 3


 ed. London, 1989. Pp.293ff.




92


. : FischerD.H.Historians Fallacies: Toward a Logic of Historical Thought. London, 1970. Pp.164f.




93


CroceB. Necessity in History, in Philosophy, Poetry, History: An Anthology of Essays / Trans. by C.Sprigge. London/New York/Toronto, 1966. P.558.




94


OakeshottM.Experience and its Modes. Cambridge, 1933. Pp.128ff.




95


OakeshottM.On History and Other Essays. Oxford, 1983. P.71.




96


Ibid. P.79.  .




97


.: BentleyM. (Ed.). Public and Private Doctrine: Essays in British History Presented to Maurice Cowling. Cambridge, 1993,  Prologue, pp.113.




98


EltonG.R.The Practice of History. London, 1969.  pp.42, 57, 6366.




99


.  : LearsT.J.The Concept of Cultural Hegemony: Problems and Possibilities // American Historical Review 90(1985). P.567593.




100


Ibid. Pp.88, 95106, 126, 132, 164.




101


E.P.Thompson (Ed.). The Poverty of Theory and Other Essays. London, 1978. P.227. . : SmithD.The Rise of Historical Sociology. Cambridge, 1991. Pp.87f.




102


CarrE.H.What Is History? 2


 ed. London, 1987. Pp.169f.




103


HobsbawmE.The Age of Extremes. London, 1994.


