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Barbara Blatchley

What Are the Chances? Why We Believe in Luck


* * *

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Copyright  2021 Barbara Blatchley

This Russian language edition is a complete translation of the U.S. edition, specially authorized by the original publisher, Columbia University Press

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   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=67855347)  .

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notes








1


 ,     . 21  2014.




2


 2005       -           Telecom Challenge 1.           .




3


  NASA,   (  29   8 )        2005 ,       .




4


,   .




5


Loma Grisby, Champ Clark, Ellen Tumposky. Very Lucky and Very Alive. Hit by a Huge Wave, Rescued by a Tall Ship, People 65, 10, 101,  2006.




6


,   .




7


      . What Is a Rogue Wave?   9  2020.: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/roguewaves.html.




8


,   .




9


Oxford English Dictionary ( ., 1971),   Luck.




10


Margaret Rouse, Random Numbers,  WhatIs.com,     2005.: http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/random-numbers.




11


Wilhelm A. Wagenaar, Generation of Random Sequences by Human Subjects: A Critical Review, Psychological Bulletin 77: .6572, 1972, doi: org/10.1037/h0032060.




12


 , () .     . Livebook, 2021.




13


Stephen Jay Gould, Glow, Big Glowworm,  Bully for Brontosaurus: Reflections in Natural History. New York: Norton, 2010,  17,  Kindle.




14


Gould, Glow, Big Glowworm, . 3953, Kindle.




15


     Stephen Jay Gould, Bully for Brontosaurus: Reflections in Natural History (New York: Norton, 1991).




16


Gould, Glow, Big Glowworm, . 7177,  Kindle.




17


Jerzy Neyman, Egon S. Pearson, On the Use and Interpretation of Certain Test Criteria for Purposes of Statistical Inference, Biometrika 20A: .175240, .26394, 1928, doi: 10.2307/2331945.




18


  , :   . , 2010.




19


Peter Brugger, From Haunted Brain to Haunted Science: A Cognitive Neuroscience View of Paranormal and Pseudoscientific Thought,  Hauntings and Poltergeists: Multidisciplinary Perspectives ( . James Houran, Rense Lange), . 204. Jefferson, NC: McFarland, 2001.




20


Michael Shermer, Patternicity: Finding Meaningful Patterns in Meaningless Noise, Scientific American, December 2008, doi: 10.2307/26000924, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/patternicity-finding-meaningful-patterns/.




21


Nouchine Hadjikhani, Kestutis Kveraga, Paulami Naik, Seppo Ahlfors, Early (M170) Activation of Face-Specific Cortex by Face-Like Objects, NeuroReport 20: .4037, 2009, doi: 10.1097/WNR.0b013e328325a8e1.




22


Michael Shermer, Agenticity, Scientific American 300 no. 6,  2009., doi: 10.2307/26001376.




23


Nicolas Rescher, Luck: The Brilliant Randomness of Everyday Life. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1995.




24


Puget Sound Citizens Believe in Luck O the Irish: Residents Gear Up for Saint Patricks Day and Hope for a Little Green, Ipsos MarketQuest Survey 2013,  20  2014.: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12550.




25


David W. Moore, One in Four Americans Superstitious: Younger People More Superstitious Than Older People, Gallup, 13  2000.: http://www.gallup.com/poll/2440/One-Four-Americans-Super-stitious.aspx.




26


James Austin, Chase, Chance and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003.




27


 (. Bellagio)  -,    Las Vegas Strip, -,  , .




28


            ,   .     -     (   ).     52   2 598 960     .     : n! /k!(n-k)! =52! /5!(47!) = 2 598 960,  ,   -  4  2 598 960  1  649 739.




29


Stuart W. Leslie, Boss Kettering. New York: Columbia University Press, 1985.




30


Louis Pasteur. Todayinsci.com,  : 15  2021.: https://todayinsci.com/P/Pasteur_Louis/PasteurLouis-Quotations.htm.

              .  ,     ( ),     .




31


Austin, Chase, Chance and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty, . 75.




32


 , . - , 1980.




33


     (. .).




34


Paul Weber, Mystery Surrounds 4-Time Texas Lotto Winner, NBC News, 13  2010.: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna38229644.




35


John Wetenhall, Who Is the Lucky Four-Time Lottery Winner: Mysterious Texas Woman has Won Over $20 Million in Lotteries, ABC News, 7  2010.: https://www.abcnews.com/id/11097894.




36


Vincent Trivett, Lucky Woman Who Won Lottery Four Times Outed as Stanford University Statistics Ph.D., Business Insider, 11  2011.: https://www.businessinsider.com/4-time-lottery-winner-not-exactly-lucky-2011-8; University of Hawaii, Grains of Sand on All the Beaches of the Earth,  22  2014.: http://web.archive.org/web/20080120012722, http://www.hawaii.edu (christianity-science.gr);   , 25  2014.: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock;   , 28  2020.: https://www.worldmeters.info/world-population/.




37


Nathanial Rich, The Luckiest Woman on Earth: Three Ways to Win the Lottery, Harpers 64,  2011.


