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Todd Rose

Collective Illusions:

Conformity, Complicity, and the Science of Why We Make Bad Decisions

    Javelin,     Prava I Prevodi.

Collective Illusions Copyright  2022 by Todd Rose

All rights reserved.

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Populace     .                .                .      :         .           [7 - , Douglas J.Ahler and Gaurav Sood, The Parties in Our Heads: Misperceptions About Party Composition and Their Consequences, Journal of Politics 80, no. 3 (2018): 964981; Christine M.Baugh et al., PluralisticIgnorance as a Contributing Factor to Concussion Underreporting, Health Education & Behavior (2021), https://doi.org/10.1177/1090198121995732 (https://doi.org/10.1177/1090198121995732); M.Ronald Buckley, Michael G.Harvey, and Danielle S.Beu, The Role of PluralisticIgnorance in the Perception of Unethical Behavior, Journal of Business Ethics 23, no. 4 (2000): 353364; Leonardo Bursztyn, Alessandra L.Gonzlez, and David Yanagizawa-Drott, Misperceived Social Norms: Female Labor Force Participation in Saudi Arabia (Working Paper 24736, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018); Lucy De Souza and Toni Schmader, The Misjudgment of Men: Does PluralisticIgnorance Inhibit Allyship? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (2021), https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000362 (https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000362); James J.Do et al., Gender Bias and PluralisticIgnorance in Perceptions of Fitness Assessments, Military Psychology 25, no. 1 (2013): 2335; William P.Eveland Jr., Douglas M.McLeod, and Nancy Signorielli, Actual and Perceived US Public Opinion: The Spiral of Silence During the Persian Gulf War, International Journal of Public Opinion Research 7, no. 2 (1995): 91109; Daniel E.Flave-Novak and Jill M.Coleman, PluralisticIgnorance of Physical Attractiveness in the Gay Male Community, Journal of Homosexuality 66, no. 14 (2019): 20022020; Nathaniel Geiger and Janet K.Swim, Climate of Silence: PluralisticIgnorance as a Barrier to Climate Change Discussion, Journal of Environmental Psychology 47 (2016): 7990; Julian Givi, Jeff Galak, and Christopher Y.Olivola, The Thought That CountsIs the One WeIgnore: How Givers Overestimate the Importance of Relative Gift Value, Journal of Business Research 123 (2021): 502515; J.Roger Jacobs, PluralisticIgnorance and Social Action on Climate Change, EMBO Reports 20, no. 3 (2019): e47426; Kerry M.Karaffa and Julie M.Koch, Stigma, PluralisticIgnorance, and Attitudes Toward Seeking Mental Health Services Among Police Officers, Criminal Justice and Behavior 43, no. 6 (2016): 759777; Esther Michelsen Kjeldahl and Vincent F.Hendricks, The Sense of Social Influence: PluralisticIgnorance in Climate Change, EMBO Reports 19, no. 11 (2018): e47185; Matthew S.Levendusky, Our Common Bonds: Using What Americans Share to Help Bridge the Partisan Divide ( , University of Pennsylvania, 2020); Tagart Cain Sobotka, Not Your Average Joe: PluralisticIgnorance, Status, and Modern Sexism, Men and Masculinities (2020), https://doi.org/10.1177/1097184X20901578 (https://doi.org/10.1177/1097184X20901578).].

,           ,    (,   ,  ,       ).     ,       [8 - Ashley Mandeville, Jonathon Halbesleben, and Marilyn Whitman, Misalignment and Misperception in Preferences to Utilize Family-Friendly Benefits: Implications for Benefit Utilization and Work-Family Conflict, Personnel Psychology 69, no. 4 (2016): 895929.].    ,    ,      ,     .

 ,      . ,   ,       ,     ,       [9 - Kengo Nawata, LiHua Huang, and Hiroyuki Yamaguchi, Anti-Japanese Public Attitudes as Conformity to Social Norms in China: The Role of the Estimated Attitude of Others and PluralisticIgnorance, Japanese Journal of Applied Psychology 42 (2016): 1624.].            ,  ,         .   ,         ,      [10 - Takeru Miyajima and Hiroyuki Yamaguchi, I Want to but I Wont: PluralisticIgnorance Inhibits Intentions to Take Paternity Leave in Japan, Frontiers in Psychology 20, no. 8 (2017): 1508.].      ,       ,    ,       [11 - Douglas J.Ahler, Self-Fulfilling Misperceptions of Public Polarization, Journal of Politics 76, no. 3 (2014): 607620.].   -     ,     ,     -  ,     ,     ,        [12 - Joshua Levine, Sara Etchison, and Daniel M.Oppenheimer, PluralisticIgnorance Among Student-Athlete Populations: A Factor in Academic Underperformance, Higher Education 68 (2014): 525540.].

             ,       .    ,  . ,  ,     .          ,      .          . ,   ,  Populace, ,  79%    :     ,   ,      [13 -    Populace, Project Delta 2.0 Results, 2020, 7.].  ,        ,            [14 -     2018.,  Reflective Democracy Campaign ( Women Donors Network,      ),   34.    ,      ,            . The Electability Myth: The Shifting Demographics of Political Power in America, Reflective Democracy Campaign, June 2019, https://wholeads.us/research/the-electability-myth (https://wholeads.us/research/the-electability-myth).].

    :    ,  ?  .  ,    ,       ,    ,    ,      . ,    ,        . ,    ,         ,      [15 - Regina Bateson, Strategic Discrimination, Perspectives on Politics 18, no. 4 (2020): 10681087.].

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     .   ,       .         ,         ,           .  ,       ,              [17 - ,       ,   .  ,    ,       -       2018.     ,   ,       .   -,     :    .  , ,     .   ,     -  ,      . Regina Bateson, Strategic Discrimination, Perspectives on Politics 18, no. 4 (2020): 10681087.].

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     , ,     ,      .   ,  .  ,   ,  ,     [28 -   Waiting List, . Steven McCann, Yuanchen Liu, and Faith Bernstein (Washington, DC: The Atlantic; New York: ShearWater Films, 2016).].

  100. ,  ,       21.  [29 - Statistics, The Kidney Project, University of California San Francisco, https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/need/statistics (https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/need/statistics).   5  2021.].       [30 - Robin Fields, God Help You. Youre on Dialysis, The Atlantic, December 2010, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/12/-god-help-you-youre-on-dialysis/308308 (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/12/-god-help-you-youre-on-dialysis/308308).].           ,    .   17       ,          [31 - Organ Donation Statistics, United States Health Resources and Services Administration, https://www.organdonor.gov/statistics-stories/statistics.html (https://www.organdonor.gov/statistics-stories/statistics.html).   5  2021.].

       ,   ,           [32 - Olivier Aubert et al., Disparities in Acceptance of Deceased Donor Kidneys Between the United States and France and Estimated Effects of Increased US Acceptance, Journal of the American Medical Association Internal Medicine 179, no. 10 (2019): 13651374.].

  ?    ,             .   ,     ,                .  , ,        ,                   ,   -  .  ,       ,       ,     .      ,  ,             ,     10%        -  [33 - Juanjuan Zhang, The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the U.S.Kidney Market, Marketing Science 29 (2009): 315335.          ,   ,            .     :     ,     -  [  ],  ,   :  ,      ,  ,    (      )            .     ,     ,  -    -  ,     . . The Kidney Transplant Waitlist  What You Need to Know, National Kidney Foundation, https://www.kidney.org/atoz/content/transplant-waitlist (https://www.kidney.org/atoz/content/transplant-waitlist).   24  2021.].

  ,  ,     ,   ,     .      ,   ,     ,      ,        .          ,           [34 - Juanjuan Zhang, The Sound of Silence: Observational Learning in the U.S.Kidney Market, Marketing Science 29 (2009): 315335.].

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    ,    ,    .       ,        , ,   ,       [37 - Kipling D.Williams, Ostracism: Consequences and Coping, Current Directions in Psychological Science 20, no. 2 (2011): 7175.].     ,   ,      .            ,     .     ,        . ,     ,     ,       .

  1990-  ,      ,  ,          .     ,             ,          1991.  1995.   22%[38 - Jaime Posada et al., Death and Injury from Motor Vehicle Crashes in Colombia, Revista panamericana de salud p?blica 7, no. 2 (2000): 8891.].         : 1996.  2000.             [39 - Deysi Yasmin Rodr?guez, Francisco Jos Fernndez, and Hugo Acero Velsquez, Road Traffic Injuries in Colombia, Injury Control and Safety Promotion 10, no. 12 (2003): 2935.].         ,         .       .         .

      -,      ,     ,   [40 - Mara Cristina Caballero, Academic Turns City into a Social Experiment, Harvard Gazette, March 11, 2004, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2004/03/academic-turns-city-into-a-social-experiment (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2004/03/academic-turns-city-into-a-social-experiment).].      ,   ,      .                 -[41 - Mimes Make Silent Mockery of Those Who Flout Traffic Laws,    YouTube  AP Archive 16  2011., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YcK05z-n8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YcK05z-n8).].     ,      .  ,         ,  ,      [42 - Antanas Mockus, The Art of Changing a City, New York Times, July 16, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/opinion/the-art-of-changing-a-city.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/opinion/the-art-of-changing-a-city.html).].   .

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        .  ,     .    ,  ,    ,  .        ,     [43 - Mara Cristina Caballero, Academic Turns City into a Social Experiment, Harvard Gazette, March 11, 2004, https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2004/03/academic-turns-city-into-a-social-experiment (https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2004/03/academic-turns-city-into-a-social-experiment).].     ,      ,    .           ,   50%[44 -  .].

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, , [45 - Crocodile Blamed for Congo Air Crash, MSNBC, October 21, 2010, https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna39781214 (https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna39781214).].

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   , ,       .     .       ;     ,    .   ,     ,       ,             ,    ,    [52 - Andrew Odlyzko, Charles Mackays Own Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Railway Mania ( , SSRN eLibrary, 2011), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1927396 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1927396).].

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     ,      ,     .  -    ,   ,    ,      (  ,    ),      ,        .          1  ,  -            ,    2026.   400 [55 - Jan Conway, Per Capita Consumption of Bottled Water in the United States from 1999 to 2019, Statista, November 26, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999); Global Bottled Water Market Share Expected to Grow USD 400 Billion by 2026: Facts & Factors, Intrado GlobeNewswire, February 10, 2021, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/10/2172833/0/en/Global-Bottled-Water-Market-Share-Expected-to-Grow-USD-400-Billion-by-2026-Facts-Factors.html (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/10/2172833/0/en/Global-Bottled-Water-Market-Share-Expected-to-Grow-USD-400-Billion-by-2026-Facts-Factors.html)].

       ? ,     ,  ,   2015.   . ,     ,     .    99%      ,            [56 - Jan Conway, U.S.Bottled Water Market  Statistics & Facts, Statista, February 12, 2021, https://www.statista.com/topics/1302/bottled-water-market (https://www.statista.com/topics/1302/bottled-water-market).].          ,      , Aquafina  Dasani (  Pepsi  Coca-Cola ),     ,     ,      [57 - ,    ,          . Dasani  Aquafina        ,     .     ,         ,    150 . Ryan Felton, How Coke and Pepsi Make Millions from Bottling Tap Water, as Residents Face Shutoffs, Consumer Reports, July 10, 2020, https://www.consumerreports.org/bottled-water/how-coke-and-pepsi-make-millions-from-bottling-tap-water-as-residents-face-shutoffs (https://www.consumerreports.org/bottled-water/how-coke-and-pepsi-make-millions-from-bottling-tap-water-as-residents-face-shutoffs); Julia Conley, Report: 64% of Bottled Water Is Tap Water, Costs 2000x More, Ecowatch, February 21, 2018, https://www.ecowatch.com/bottled-water-sources-tap-2537510642.html (https://www.ecowatch.com/bottled-water-sources-tap-2537510642.html); Jan Conway, Per Capita Consumption of Bottled Water in the United States from 1999 to 2019, Statista, November 26, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999).].          ,    .

      .  2019.   42,7   ,       [58 - Jan Conway, Per Capita Consumption of Bottled Water in the United States from 1999 to 2019, Statista, November 26, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183377/per-capita-consumption-of-bottled-water-in-the-us-since-1999).].              (   1,50    )       ,      [59 - Julia Conley, Report: 64% of Bottled Water Is Tap Water, Costs 2000x More, Ecowatch, February 21, 2018, https://www.ecowatch.com/bottled-water-sources-tap-2537510642.html (https://www.ecowatch.com/bottled-water-sources-tap-2537510642.html).].    .   ,      ,         ,  -  5     .   Aqua Deco    12 ;       Hawaiian Kona Nigari,     402 .     Acqua di Cristallo a Modigliani   24-    - 60. [60 - Maria McCutchen, Here Are the 10 Most Expensive Bottled Water Brands in the World, Money Inc, https://moneyinc.com/10-expensive-bottled-waters-world (https://moneyinc.com/10-expensive-bottled-waters-world).   24  2021.].

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notes








1


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2


Richard Louis Schanck, A Study of a Community and Its Groups and Institutions Conceived of as Behaviors of Individuals, Psychological Monograph 43, no. 2 (1932).




3


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4


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6


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