 .      
ϸ  


  ,     10  20      .               120150,     ,     .     ,        砖    .

  -, ,    ,  ,                ,       .           ,      ,   , ,         .

   ,   (Ph. D.),  ,     - Gero,  ,                 XXI      .

       :         .    ,         軠    .  ,           ,       . ,         .



 

 ,         ,         .





ϸ  

 :      



     Instagram / Facebook,   Meta Platforms Inc.,           .



  ,  

  . 

  . 

    . 

 . , . 

  . 

   shutterstock.com (https://www.shutterstock.com/)



  .           () .  ,  ,   ,  ,   ,          .  ,   ,     ,  ,          ,      ,   ,       .

,      ,  ,   ,        () ,        ,    .



ϸ , 2023

  , 2023


* * *








   .     堖  .      .







 


      ,      .      ,    ,   ,  .    ,         ,        YouTube,  ,                 . ,  ,  ,     ,    .       .       ,     ,     :    !      ! ,   ,    ?

      ,  ?,      ,   .     ,   .    ,   ,     ,        ,    .   ,        ,   . , ,  ,  :      .

         :                    .   , ,  ,                     .     .

        (PhD)   ,         ,      .     󻠖     Gero,  ,    ,    ,      .

 ,   XX                    .         ,                ,        .                .

     ,           -       .      ,           .         ,      .

, ,     ,               .            .  ,       :    2019[1 - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf (https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf).] ,   2050-        65 ( 2019   11-),      堖  .         ,      .

   .  2018      $1,8   ,        ,      ()[2 - World Health Organization (2020). Global spending on health: Weathering the storm. https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322903/retrieve (https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322903/retrieve).], $8,3,   $1,3   .   ,   ,   XXI      ,       .

         .   ,      ,      ,     ,       .   ,             .             ,     ,  .

    -            .                ,           .              540  ,    ,    1991   iPhone  2007-젖          .              .

  ,    ,         , ,   ,   .         ,          .        .         .           .

       ,            .        ,  ,               ,         ,       ,       . ,      :      2020- .       ,         ,       .

       :         .    ,         軠    .  ,           ,       . ,         .

 ,  , ,   ,  ,       .  , ,          ,        , ,  ,  ,           ,   .

,  ,                         ,      . -,             ,  ,   . -,         ,    ,      .      ,    ,      ,    .

  ,         ,    .  1970-     ,            .   XXI                  .

  -, ,    ,  ,                ,       .           ,      ,   , ,         .

         ,              ,   , .     ,    ,        ,         .        :       (   ) .

          ,        .           ,                   ,   ,    .             .            ,  ,             .

          ,             .     ,    ,     .     ,             .

     Gero,        ,                 ,    ,   (      )    .

,  ,      ,        .   2019   ,                ,        .    ꠖ   ,         ,   ,   .          ,    .    ,              ,        .    !

 䠖        .          .   ,     ,      ,    .    ,       ,         .     ,        ,                    .

 ,               .         COVID-19          ,         ,    ,       .         ,                 COVID-19   .   10  20            .

     , ,    ,       .  ,       :     ,     ,                .     ,     ,      2000-. , ,         ,        ,     .

,         젖         ,  , -,      .            ,         .       頖     ,            .

      ,                      .




Memento mori (  ),    


        (,   [3 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526419/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526419/).]).                 .              ,   ,           .  ,     ,     [4 -  .     :  . .: Corpus/, 2012.]             . ,    ,     ?     ,   ,     .

             .    , ,  50000 ,             ,       .

            -       .            .              ,                    .

  ,     III    , ,          (     ).     -  ,       .        .       ;   ,      .                :               .

     :    ,       .    ,     ,    .   ,        :            . ,      30: 28  (  60)   .

       ,   .     :    ,  ,    ,    .     ,     :    ,      , etc.      ,    젖  ,       .

   ,    ,      .        (   ?),    , : ,        . ,  ,    -    ,        .

            -,     .  -    :   ;  p    p   ;  p : " !  p ;     p   ,    ?"  : " p p  ,   p  p".    p  p[5 -  .         /  .   / Bibliotheca Gumilevica. p  p p. . 2.  pp.     . . p. .: -,  , 1995.].

     ,         18961897    29,43,   48,23,   蠖 31,69,   51,08[6 -    19002000.  .  . .:  , 2005.].             .        ,     ,                      45.

 , ,             , ,    .  ,  ,   4050,       60.              :           ⠖     19  24  ,        .    XX        -   ,    .

-   ,          ,       .   ,        . ,       堖     -         40.     1825  젖 ,   .

     .           5 1779.       .           ,     ,   ,   1819      ,      ,       .      1810       .

 1820      ,   ,      ,    1825   magnum opus,    [7 - B.Gompertz. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 1825, Vol. 115, p. 513583.].          ,    ,        .

,        ,     .       ,       ,  (        ).             .        ,       ,                .

       ,   ,             .           ,   ,    .        (    )     1824 Alliance Assurance Company.  ,              :     ,    . Alliance Assurance             RSA Insurance Group.    2020      26   12000 ,      ?5         .

 XXI  ,          .   ,      .   ,   ,        .            :         .              ,       ,     10,       .              ,        .      ,   30,     ,     .

       ( 80   )       .       ,    ,        .        ,  ,      ,      .    ,  ,            .

    :  ,          .  ,         .     :       ,            .      ?

  50 ,   ,    - ,           .  ,        ,   ,       .                ,   .

   PURE (Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiologicstudy),    Lancet  2019[8 - Jonathan Kocarnik. Cancer's global epidemiological transition and growth. The Lancet (September 2019).],              ,  , , ,   .    (.Communications Biology, 2019[9 - Aleksandr Zenin, Yakov Tsepilov, Sodbo Sharapov, Evgeny Getmantsev, L. I. Menshikov, Peter O. Fedichev and Yurii Aulchenko. Identification of 12 genetic loci associated with human healthspan. Communications Biology, 2019; 2: 41. https://www.nature.com/articles/s4200301902900 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003%E2%80%93019%E2%80%930290%E2%80%930).]),       51%  UK Biobank              .








    ,    ,  ,    1971      ,               . ,        ,      $100,   ,         ,   ,  ,      .             50%. , ,  .          堖 60%,   , ,     10%.

 ,      ,      ,      , , .  ,   . ,         2- ,         (.).      :       (   ),   蠖   (     100000).  ,      堖           10.

  ,   2018,              ,             .  ,                             .

      -    ,   ,     .     ,         ,           .        [10 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23507421 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23507421).].   , ,    ,   ,     ,           .

   ,           ,        .   .            : Carthago delenda est (   ).       (  ),           ,         .

 -      ,            .    ,           .         ,          蠖     ,   .

         ,  ,      .  Memento mori       ,   -    :       ,     ,           .



    :   Alphabet ( Google),    Amazon,    Venrock, Fidelity, ARCH Venture Partners        .  ,     Y ombinator,           $500000  $1, ,  ,    ,       ,   $100. Bank of America      $600  2025.  2015-,    ,        (Meta)      10 $3       ,      .

,     ,     ,     ,      .         ,         .  ,     ,      .    510        ,  ,                   .

   ,             ,  ,  頖      .  ,         , ,      ,  ,           100,  ,  .        2015     Reddit,        ,   ,          .

   ,      ,        ,   ,     ,    .      :        (     )    ,    (            ).

   :        ,     .    ,    ,  ,          ,          .

,             ,      ,          .    ,        XVII,      ,   , , ,      .         4   XX.  1820 75%   ,      ,      2001          .   ,       ,      10% .   ,       - 100 ,  ,       !

       ?     ,          .




    ?





   ?


                  .                   .                   ,     .

    .  ,     ,   ,         .    ,    ,  ,       ,         ,       ,  ,       .     -  500  ( ) .

   ,          -, ,   (    ,   ,     -).   ,          ,   ,  100 ,    ,       .

 ,     ,         .    - ,             ,      ,     .

     ,     .    :          ,          ,  ,      ,    .   ,       (,   )  100000 .   ,                   .      ,  ,   ,   .

      .       ,    ,  . ,           ,  ,             .  ,        10,     ,     ,       .

     , ,   - ,      .           ( ),   .      ,  堖    .          蠖 ,   S&P500  Dow Jones, S&P500  NASDAQ  ..        ,    X,         ,     .

          (  !),       .       :         ,      .

 ,  ,     .    ,  ,    .      (堖  300 )    ( 1,4).           ( 300 ).  ,              ,      ,              ,   ,  ,      .

      .           ,  ,      .    ,        ,   ,    ໠       .         ,       .                 .              .

    ?              頖         .        ,       ,   . , ,             20  30 .   (   )         :  ,    ,   ,   612.

 1798           [11 - Thomas Malthus. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul's Church-Yard, 1798.],  ,      ,       .             25     ࠖ ,          .

     ,    ! ,     !  1960   Science         -          [12 - Foerster, H. von, P. Mora, and L. Amiot. Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026. At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia. Science, 1960 132, p. 12911295.],                   ,    :








       ,    ,       .     , 13 2026.         ,         -,    .

    ,      .              .

         ?         .      :   ,     ,         ;        .

               ,         -  ,    .     ,       ,     .

   [13 -  . .     . .: , 1999.],      1,4  .          ,   ,      .   ,            Homo erectus ( ).    ,    :        ,    ,          .   ,      ,   ,   1,5 ,      .

       ,   .    ,       ? .      ,     ,        .       (),    Nature  2020[14 - Emily Elhacham, Liad Ben-Uri, Jonathan Grozovski, Yinon M. Bar-On & Ron Milo. Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass. Nature volume 588, p. 442444 (2020). https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158602030105 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586%E2%80%93020%E2%80%933010%E2%80%935).],     (   ,  ,      )          ( 1,1).  ,        ,     ,      .

    - ,      ,     .  2021 (  )  ,       2026  .           ?

 ,      ,        ,   200  .              ,         .  ,        ,       ,    ,    ,     頖   .

     .       (    )      .           ,       ,         45.       :             4045.

       ,         .        蠖       .   ,    ,       1214 ,        XX   50100 (            ).

        ,   . - (   ),           50 ,      ,       .

-,       , ,            .  !             ,    ,      ( ,  !),     .         ,     ,        .

            .  ,    ,      .   ,                (,   ,   ).  ,   堖         .

      .      ,    .       ,              .     ,     ,            ,      .           (  ) .

           .         :    젖  ,         .     100200       ,     .

   ,      ,   ,   ,      510   .        ,       ,   .        S&P500    100  65  15.

 䠖    ,        .    , ,  , ,                  .

                      ,        ,    .        (      )   :  90%    (    )  -   .  ,    ,       ,     1950-   1960- , [15 - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100826083620.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100826083620.htm).]  1990-    2019  26%,  .

      . , ,  ,        (      1315     )       ,       .    4245%         .      堖 60%    .

,       ,               ,               .                . ,  ,                  ,      .

  ,          (     ),         . ,   蠖  ,        !

        .           .    2030-        60      16.  ,       ,        .       ,     .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=68493365)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf (https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf).




2


World Health Organization (2020). Global spending on health: Weathering the storm. https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322903/retrieve (https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1322903/retrieve).




3


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526419/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526419/).




4


 .     :  . .: Corpus/, 2012.




5


 .         /  .   / Bibliotheca Gumilevica. p  p p. . 2.  pp.     . . p. .: -,  , 1995.




6


   19002000.  .  . .:  , 2005.




7


B.Gompertz. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 1825, Vol. 115, p. 513583.




8


Jonathan Kocarnik. Cancer's global epidemiological transition and growth. The Lancet (September 2019).




9


Aleksandr Zenin, Yakov Tsepilov, Sodbo Sharapov, Evgeny Getmantsev, L. I. Menshikov, Peter O. Fedichev and Yurii Aulchenko. Identification of 12 genetic loci associated with human healthspan. Communications Biology, 2019; 2: 41. https://www.nature.com/articles/s4200301902900 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003%E2%80%93019%E2%80%930290%E2%80%930).




10


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23507421 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23507421).




11


Thomas Malthus. An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul's Church-Yard, 1798.




12


Foerster, H. von, P. Mora, and L. Amiot. Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026. At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millennia. Science, 1960 132, p. 12911295.




13


 . .     . .: , 1999.




14


Emily Elhacham, Liad Ben-Uri, Jonathan Grozovski, Yinon M. Bar-On & Ron Milo. Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass. Nature volume 588, p. 442444 (2020). https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158602030105 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586%E2%80%93020%E2%80%933010%E2%80%935).




15


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100826083620.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100826083620.htm).


