   .       
 


  
  ,      ,         ,      ,    .            ,    ,       .      ,    ;        ,     .

  PDF A4    .





 

   .       



Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities by Vaclav Smil

 2019 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

 ..,    , 2020

 .   , 2023


* * *







         ,        ,              .    ,      ,              .      .         ,     ,    ,      .       ,    .   ,             (        )        ,   ,      , ,   .

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  .

   ,  ,     150 


        3540,      ,    542 .

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.0.1. ,    .         ,    50    - ,        1  .       (       )   2004 .    https://www.nasa. gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_152.html



 ,   ,   ,              ().        :       ,       , ,       ,              .                            (Smil, 2013a).

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      ,       ,       ,      ,  S- () .      ,   ,  ,       ,         (, ,  )     , ,   .             (, , ,  , ,  ,  )    ,        .

  ,   ,       ,   .      ,                :       ,     ,       .          (  )    (                         ,   ),     -    ,        .

       ,          , ,                ,   .   ,      :  ,      ,  ,   ,    .         (      )      ,      .                 ,        ,   ,         ,          .

       ,               .           : 1950        2,5  (USBC, 1975; USCB, 2013),  1970        (Zupan et al., 2017),  2002               (Citroen 2 CV, Fiat Topolino)   600   1200 (Smil, 2014b).             :        15      30      120  2015 ,      ,  150,  .              : 2017     2043  (Forbes, 2017).       ,    ,     ,        .


 

,          ,                 ,    ,               .    ,        (     1500  1800 ),      ,       ,           (   )           .

      ,   ,          .          ,  ,    ,  ,          ,           .         ,       ,     .               ,          ,  .

,      2500  (       )  ,  ,    1   ,   (Butzer, 1976).       ,       :   XIV            400 ,    200      (Stanhill, 1976; Clark, 1991).      .           ,   ,       ,  2  20,   17  ( II      XVIII ) (Smil, 2017a).                     : 1300   ,        400 000 ,    ,    XIX       30  (18561886)   2,3  (Atlas Historique de Paris, 2016).

   :  ,    (            ),        ,         550   ..,        2400  (Minetti, 2003).     (1316/)  ,    (1825  ),   .       ,             .             .

  XIX           ,   ,   ,        ,  ,   ,          ,        (Smil, 2005).      (  ,    ,      ),       ,            XX .        (  ,     ),      (      ,  )       (Smil, 2006b).

          ,       ,       .  ,   ,   ,           :     ,   2018 ,   23 ,    (  10,2 ,   ) ,     (Intel 4004, 4-    ,  2300 ),   1971  (Moore, 1965; 1975; Intel, 2018; Graphcore, 2018).        (.  1),             ,             (.0.2).

         ,        (   )     ,     .       .  ,       Citi,    ,  ,   50 :   75 ,   38 ,   13 ,   4   - Angry Birds  35  (Frey and Osborne, 2015).    Citi Digital Strategy Team,        .






.0.2.    :  , 19712018.          10


  10


    (Smil, 2017a; IBM, 2018b)



         ?      ,  50    ,        1953  (1878  + 75 ).        , ,         ,    .       :          1928 ,  13  ,  1941 ,   -    ,     ( : ,   )  50   1963 .      ,        ,    ,     .  ,     ?

         , ,       :   ,     ,    [1 -  ,    ,    ( Angry Birds)         (). . .].   XIX        ,        (         ,            1920- ),      ( )   .

    Angry Birds        ,            ,    :     1880-            2000-,                .                     .       . ,       ,            : ,         ,     .    30 ,    ,    1967 ,   90% .

     ,       .          ( 1450 ),     XVIII    1      200 000   XVI .        2  (  ,   ) (UNESCO, 2018).    ,        ,   ,           .        1878  (Smil, 2018a; .0.3),            .   ,     ,      ,       . ,        ,       1960 .






.0.3.         ,    1878 .    -   



   ,  90%              .  Seagate  2005     ,   ,  0,1  (10


 ),  2010    2 ,  2016   16,1   ,   2025      163  (Seagate, 2017).           2025   175   ,        (Reinsel et al., 2018).           ,        .  ,               ,       -  .

       ,    ,      ,            ,     ,   ,           ,            . , ,     ,       GPS.     ,         (   : ,   ,   23 ,   -  ,    ),        ,  .

          : ,        ,     2008  2015    5,5  (eMarketer, 2017),       .                   ,        ,  2012       Google        ,     -,              .

 2001        (Kurzweil, 2001, 1):



   ,      ,      .  XXI      100       20 000   (   ). ,        ,   .      .        ,          ,       .        ,       ,      .


 2005     The Singularity Is Near ( )      2045 ,           -, Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence (Kurzweil, 2005, 2017).  ,      ,  ,  ,  ,   ,  ,       ,      ,      ,  .         ,       :      ,           ,          (Vernadsky, 1929; Smil, 2002).  ,                      (          ).


 

    ,           ,    ,  ,       . ,             .            (     1917 ,       1942 )      ,     (, , , , )   (Thompson, 1917; 1942).  ,          (, , ),          ,       .

       ..,   1923 ,    (Robertson, 1923).  1945          ,     ,       (Brody 1945).  1994            .    ,    ,                ,   .        (    )               (Banks, 1994).

 ,     (      ),    : -      (Chaplain et al., 1999).      (     ,   ,    ,         )        .  2017       ,        ,   ,      ,  ,                ,            (West, 2017).

  ,   ,   :      (Studzinski, 2000; Morgan, 2007; Verbelen and Vissenberg, 2007; Golitsin and Krylov, 2010),   (Morrison and Morecroft, 2006; Vaganov et al., 2006; Burkhart and Tom, 2012; Gregory and Nortcliff, 2013)   (Batt, 1980; Campion et al., 1989; Gerrard and Grant, 2007; Parks, 2011).  ,          (Ulijaszek et al., 1998; Bogin, 1999; Hoppa and Fitzgerald, 1999; Roche and Sun, 2003; Hauspie et al., 2004; Tanner, 2010; Floud et al., 2011; Fogel, 2012).

            ,    , ,    (Martorell and Haschke, 2001; Hochberg, 2011; Hassan, 2017).  (Malthus, 1798)   (Verhulst, 1845, 1847)      ,      ,     (Pearl and Reed, 1920)  - (Carr-Saunders, 1936)    . (Meadows et al., 1972),    (Keyfitz and Flieger, 1991),  (Hardin, 1992),  (Cohen, 1995),  (Stanton, 2003),   . (Lutz et al., 2004),       ,  .

      , ,    . ,    ,       (Kuznets, 1955; Zhang, 2006; Piketty, 2014),     (Ruttan, 2000; Mokyr, 2002; 2009; 2017; van Geenhuizen et al. 2009),     (Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2000; Busse and K?niger, 2012; European Commission, 2014)     (Bloom and Canning, 2008; Barro, 2013).          (Mo, 2001; Mndez and Sep?lveda, 2006; Bai et al., 2014)     (Kurtz and Schrank, 2007; OECD, 2016).

      ,       (WCED, 1987; Schmandt and Ward, 2000; Daly and Farley, 2010; Enders and Remig, 2014)   (    ) (Mehrotra and Delamonica, 2007; Lavoie and Stockhammer, 2013).   ,         ,  -   ,        ; , ,          .          ,    ,    (Taagepera, 1978; 1979; Turchin, 2009; Marchetti and Ausubel, 2012).


  (  )   

                 .     ,    ,    .      ,      ,    .          .                          ,     ,        .

    ( ) , ,   .        ,     ,     2     20  .          ( ,  , ,  )              ,    (   , , )       :       1  ,         210  1000  (Smil, 2008).           .

        ,    ,           .                      .  ,        ,           ,    ,    ,   .       - (Macieira-Coelho, 2005),   . (Gewirtz et al., 2007),  (Kimura, 2008)   (Kraikivski, 2013)         .

,         ,    ,                ,            . ,   ,   ,             ,            (Brazier, 1975; Kretschmann, 1986; Schneider, 2014; Lagercrantz, 2016)   (Rosenthal and Harvey, 2010; Bruneau, 2012),     ,      ,          (    ),       .

            (   )      (    ),      .       ,             .      -  ( , , , )   :         .

          ,         .     ,       (      ),    (         ),    (     ,      ,          )  ,    ()   (, ,   ),        .

      ,       S- ()  ,    (  ) (Verhulst, 1838, 1845, 1847),   (Gompertz, 1825)     ,     (von Bertalanffy, 1938; 1957),  (Richards, 1959),  (Blumberg, 1968)    . (Turner et al., 1976).   ,            .                ,         .

                     ,     ,    ,     , ,  ,    ,   ,        .    S-        ,      ,  ,         ()    ,      .


   

   ,  ,    ,  ,     (  ,  ,   ,   )     ,        ( ,  ,  ).       ,    ,             , ,   ,    (, , )  .

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, ,      .                      .                  ,       ,    ,    .     ,    .     ,     ,      .      ,      (  )   ,    .   ,           ,  .

             ,  ,   ,       .     ,      ,     ,             (    !)    (  ) .     ,                    .                .

     ,         (     )    (   )     .       ,       . ,          ,               .     100   ,    ,   ,  .    ,     ,      (   ),            .

       ,      .          ,                 .              ,        ,           .        ,     .

       .           ,          .     -         ,   ,           .    ,  (   )          ,       ,              .      ,   ( , , )     ,     ,      ,  ,        .

 ,       ,                .   ,   ,   . ,         ,     (         )     ,     .     ,   ,      (  1 )    2025 ,       2022 ,         ( ),    ,         .

        :         .    ,         (       )    ,      .   ,  ,         ,        XX ;          ,      ,   ,      (    ),        .

     .             : ,       , ,  ,   ,   ,  ,               .  ,    ,   ,    (, ,   )     (,      ). , ,     ,   : , ,       , ,   ,     .

        .        , ,   ,         ,     .      ,   ,    ,                 ,      (, ,      ,  ).

    ,    ,  , ,    ,     :   ,       (   ) ,    :       ,    .




 1

,    



     .    (  ) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , S-, , , , , , .          .   , ,  ,        (           ),   ,        ,    .  ,  ,   :       ,   ,     .

 ,      ,       ,       ,           ().                ,             .  ,        ,  .

       . ,    1950-         5%  ,       $3500    (   160 )    .          2011  2015  (  2%  )   $4800    (   317 )    ,    40% ,  60   (         ). ,         2%   ,    2,5 .   ,     ,           ()  2000 .

   23  2016 ,   ,        ,      ,      ,  .  94% ,     2001  2014          200%,       ,          ,    20%.   ,  ,        30%,      .    Economist,      ,     (Economist, 2016).

 ,    ,   ,    ,  (  ,   )   .  ,  ,  ,                  . ,              ,        ,   .     ,       .      .    ,         ,    .    ,   ,       ,   ,        .

 ,       ,     ,      ?     .       ,     ,      ,   , ,     ,     .      ,            .  ,  ,   ,     ,      .




? 


      ,                ,        (   ),        (   ). ,     (  )           :                 ,     (     ) ,    ,   ,   ,  ? :      ;          ,                 ,           (Thompson, 1942, 139).

     ,                 ,      .      ,         ,     ,       ,               .     , ,       ,        ,     ,       ,     .

    ,    ,       .     .     (  ,     )       XIX ,                  .              :     , ,    .                     -    .

?     ,   ,             ,   .     ,   . ,  - ,    ,              (Perrin et al., 2016).          1525     (    ) .         ,         ( )  -    ,     .

        ,   .     ( , -, )        ;       ( ,   )   90 ,         200 ;          .         (      ):     (, , )      (  ),         ,         .

           ( 270     645    ),                    .    ,     ,     ,               .            ,         ,   ,     ,     ,   .

    ,            ,         ,       .   (, , ),   ,     ,      .     200 ,   XVIII   XX .    ( )   1880- ,       1930-.            1950-,         1970-     .

          200 000  ,                (15001800),            .   ,      (  ,        )      (,    ),         .

     (, , ,   )   ,           .      ,              (   ),        .                ,  (   )       ,      .            150200  .

          ,  ,     .  ,        .       ,       ,         .        ,    ,  ,    ,      ,     ,   S- ,                     .




 


  ,     ,  .          ,   ,  ,     (  ,   ) .            ,   .         ,        ,    ,   ,    ,     .

   ,     ,    ()    :  (, ),  (, ),  (, ),    (, ),  ( )  (, ),   ()    (, ).      ,      ,     (


),  (


),  (/),  (/


)    (


/).            ,  , , ,    .

          (  ,          .     ).   ,   ,       (  ,   ),   .           .             (Adams et al., 2016),           .  ,      ,       ,  ,         ,         (CTBUH, 2018).

     42 Home Insurance Building,    ,     1884 ,  828 Burj Khalifa  ,   2009 .   Jeddah Tower (       Saudi Binladin,        11  2001 )  2019     1008 (CTBUH, 2018)[2 -  2018.        . . .]. ,   ,    ,       ,  Clio Infra (2017)   (Roser, 2017)            (.1.1).            (Ulijaszek et al., 1998; Floud et al., 2011).

          ,    ,          .      (    )     (


),   ,   ,  -   .   (


, 1000 ? 1000)       .             ,        .  (100 ? 100,  10 000


)           (   ,   ).






.1.1.      , 15501980.  Clio Infra (2017)



             (  ),            (  


).             , ,       .    42   (  159,997 )  1872            ,                      .

     ,        (   ),             8,5 ,         7,33   .            .         ,    (400/


)     (800/


),      200/


   1,2/


    (USDA, 2010).

         :  ,       (     ),                  . ,                .   1969     11,        ,  32    2    (RAM),  62     (Hall, 1996).      ,   IBM,  11,3   16  RAM,   1,416 /.  2018   Dell,      ,  2,83   4   ,  1,41 /.       11 (,  ),  1981           !

     (      )     .           ,         91


   1950    240


 2015  (Alexander, 2000; USCB, 2017)           .     240


   35  ,  ,    ,    ,    ,     (Smil, 2014b).   ,    90


    12        .

 ,           (, ,    ): 1950    20%    ,    10%       5%  ,       .  ,        ,        ,      .    ,   2015 ,   2,6     1950 ,            .

            (.1.2).     ,   Model T,    1908 ,   540.          ,       ,       : 1938    Model 74  1090,   ,   Model T (Smil, 2014b).   (  ,  ,  )      ,                    ()  1970-     1980-   - (),       2019      ,      .

 1981          1452,  2000    1733,   2008-  1852 (    2015 ),    100       3,4  (USEPA, 2016b).              ,     .      1908    100 000 ,  2017     73,      700 .  ,               2500  ,    .






.1.2.      1908   Ford Model T  540.  2018       ,   Ford F150  2000.     Ford Motor Company  1909    Trucktrend



      .        (            ,        ).    ,          ,   (/, /),  (/, /),   (/, $/)       (    /, $/).      ,       ,               (Falchi et al., 2016).

      ,        ,     .       :    , ,  ,  , ,   ,       .   (,  ,  ,  )     ,            . ,     (      )    ,    ,     (UNDP, 2016).

 2017         ,       (KPI)             ,          (World Economic Forum, 2017).           :       10   (, , , , , ). ,           .

   ,   ,   1972 ,                    (GNH Centre, 2016). , , ,               .   ,              ,       .    1948       ,      (Carroll, 2007).  1948      43% .  , 55%,    2004 ,          11  2001   37%.   2006     49%,           (47%  1952 )!

       ,      ,  ,  .         .               ,      .         ,      :              ,     (  ).  ,        (  )   ,    ,    . (Siegel et al., 2014) ,        .  2009     22%          0,42       1,02   .

            ,      (    XVII ,                XIX )                  .   (17661834),       ,     ,             (Malthus, 1798).

   ,    (18041849),  ,     , ,   .                 ,    ,    ,      (Verhulst, 1838; 1845; 1847).        ,        ,        .           (  2),   ,              .




   


  ,     ,     .          ,      黠 . ,    ,           , ,     :

N


= N


 + kt,

    N


 (   t)      (N


)    k    t.

    ,      ,       ,      (White and Culver, 2012).       0,1    ,    1       10 (1000  + 1000 ? 0,1).      ,      (.1.3). , , ,           .  ,    0,1      1000 ,    0,01%    ,   0,009%  .






.1.3.   ,      



                 .    

N


 = N


 (1 + r)


,

 r   ,        , ,   7%    r = 0,07.

               

N


 = N


e


,

 e (e = 2,7183,   )    rt,        .     ,    ,     ,  ,     .

        0,05%  ,    1000        65 (1,000  ? 2,718


 = 1648,6   ,     64,86),    50% ,    .       ,       (.1.3).  10 000        ,     2,           ,       148,3.       ,                ,          .

    ,                ,            :             .  (Gold, 1992) ,   ,    ,   1%      5  ,    ,     . (Whitman et al., 1998), ,  ,   0,016%  .        ,      .   (  ),        ,   100  (          ),      . ,        105,  10       150 ,   50  100   350  600 .

     , Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( )               -        ,            (Gillespie, 2002)        .            15 ,      5%  .      100 ,       105    ,       .  10       165  (  10% ,    ),   50      1218  (  3,5  ,    )  14 841   100 ,     25  .  :             ,   100    ,       .

  ()   .  (),   ,   ,   300 000 000 (299 792 458,   )  . ,  ,      100/   ,       27,7.      (, V)    (, ),    (, ?)  ,    ,          [3 -                            (,   ). . .].  (   )          .     (   )           .

             ,     .            .        ,     .         ,          Ford Model T  1908 ,      [4 -    ,              . . .]      ,   ,     (     1830 )    .

       .    1945  1978           ,        1983       2007  (USEIA, 2017b).         ,    ,         1945  2015 ,              1977 ,     1978  1985       25  (USEPA, 2015).






.1.4.         (        )        .     (2006)



 ,  ,   ,   ,    ,              .    ,   ,     .        ,   . ,            21  36  (Kuczmarski et al., 2002),        ()                         (WHO, 2006; .1.4).


 

 ,      ,  .   ,        ,   , ,  ,       1256       ,    -  ,     ( ?)     . 128  (2


)       ,    , ,    2,1 (2


),       9,2  (9,2 ? 10


) .

      ,       :        256  ,   ,    ,   99,61%   . ,               ,          .  ,       25,    (       )   230  ,    500     ,   2015    500 .

         .            .       ( II  ..),     12   (         ),      60  (Garnsey, 1988; Erdkamp, 2005; Smil, 2010c).   ,         ,       0,5%     2015    160 ,     60      2015       2,5 ,     7 .






.1.5.      , 18801970-:  ,      .   (Smil, 2017b



       ,         .         y,        ,     J-        ,        .             (   x          ),      ,        y,       .  ,         ,        .  .1.5      :         ,           1880  1970 .

          :  ( 1846 ),  ( 1858 )   ( 1859 ).  1875       2 ,               (, , , )       1930    170 .     1930-      ,       1945 ,              1970-      (    1000 )   100 .

       .   ,  ,         ,  ,    ,  1985 .         ,        .            ( ):            ,    ,    ,    .           ,     (  )          (Malthus, 1798).

            ,   XVIII ,         (Baca?r, 2011).  ,    ,     ,    -     ,      [] (Euler, 1748).            1747     ,     100 000 .   ,   ,      (3,33%  ),  100 .  ,    , ,       25 :  P


 = P


(1 + r)


,   100   100 000 ? (1 + 1/30)


,  2 654 874.   ,        .

           ,    .     ,       ,    ,        ,        (Malthus 1798, 8),   :



     , ,  ,       1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512  ..,      1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  ..            512  10,     4096  13,         ,          .


   ,             (Darwin, 1861, 63):



    ,        ,     ,       .          ,              .  ,                            ,        .       ,           : ,            ,         .   ,        5 ,    .


     ,     ,          ,        . -,     ,        ,              .     5,5%  1957-,    1970 ,         2,27    $56    $24,7 (FRED, 2017).            :     ,         .

        .       1970    :    9,5%   1970-  7,7%   1980- , 5,3%   1990-    4%     XXI  (FRED, 2017).        :    8,6%     , 9,8%     2001  2005   11,3%  2006  2010  (NBS, 2016).           : ,    (  )    XX     7%  ,          ,    ,  0,3%  1954  (   )  13%  1978  (FRED, 2017).

-,  ,   ,     ,     , ,    .      (      ),    ( )  (       ).       :         ,   ,  (    ,  )   ,  30       .      $65  ,                  2008  (Ross, 2016).






.1.6.      (  )     19301980  (,      )   19302015  (,          1987 ).         



          .        ,    ,            1950 .   1950-       11,1%,   1960-  1970-  12,4  9,4%.           1930  1980    ,       (   ,  r


=0,9998),        1980   2015      10  (.1.6).

           (   XXI       0,9%),     1930  2015      ()    ,   2015    2,3      1980 ,        2030  (.1.6).               ,    ,   ,    ,   :       ,    ,   ,      .

        ,         Vestas, ,         .        55   1981 ,  1989       225 ,  1995      600 ,   1999     2 .             XX  (    ,  R


=0,978)    2005       10    100   2015 .   2018     Vestas       4,2 ,   ,     , 8      9  (Vestas, 2017a),     100    .                   (S-)     ,       ,   2025         2030        .

  ,          , ,       .               -,        .   ,  ,       ,          :     1990      1990-.

    1980-     ,    ,      .    2,6   1970-  Nikkei 225 (        Dow Jones Industrial)   184%     1981  1986 ,    43%  1986 ,   13%  1987 ,   43%  1988     29%  1989  (Nikkei 225, 2017).     1981-   1989  Nikkei 225      ,       17%     24%   .          4%,       ?239/US$   1980   ?143/US$   1989 .

     ,    6    ,    1989 .       ,   1999 ,       Nikkei   ,    ,  ,      -.      , ,    ,  ,              -.   ,  ,     1995-      ,     ,   1996-,  1997-,  1998-   .           ,    ,              ,        .

 1990- Dow Jones Industrial Average                   2810    1990   11 497    1999  (FedPrimeRate, 2017).        14%       33%  1995-  25%  1996 .      2010      30 000. Nasdaq Composite Index,         (     ,        ),   1990-    :        26%       1991 ,      500 ,  9  2000 ,    5046  (Nasdaq, 2017).

       .          :  .    ,   20%     ,    .  - ,       ,   ,   ,    ? (Bebar, 1999).        :  ,  Dow Jones   40 000 (Elias, 2000),        100 000 (Kadlec and Acampora, 1999).   ,  -  .   2002  Dow Jones    9945 ,   40%     1999  (FedPrimeRate, 2017),    2002  Nasdaq Composite    77%       2000  (Nasdaq, 2017).

       ,      3,     .          .         1884        ,      Parsons Building  Trinity College  ,    7,5 ,    ,     1890 ,   10      75  (Parsons, 1936).

      1899      1 ,       2 ,  1907      5 ,        ,    - Commonwealth Edison Co.  ,  25  (Parsons, 1911).       75   1890     25   1912            26%,      .    ,        XVIII ,        .

         ,   ,      ,     :   , ,  S- ,   [5 -      ,                    . . .]    .  - ,       4,      ,    .   4,   ,    , ,     ,  50 :      ,   ,       .

 ,     ,         ,      ,       , ,        .        2 ( 0,693)[6 -    ,     x    ,      e ( ,   2,72),   x. . .]     (    ,  0,1  10%),       ,  70   ,   .      10%  ,     ; ,                35%.


 

 , ,          (   )   .        ,      ,   .            (),           (.1.7).   , ,     ,              . ,    ,          ,           ( ).






.1.7.        



                  :        ?[7 -                        ,            . . .] (Cailleux, 1951, 70).     : P=a/(D  t)M,  a, D  M  .    (Meyer and Vallee, 1975, 290)   ,              .

       ,         .  Ը  . (von Foerster et al., 1960, 1291) ,  , 13  2026    ,     ,   ,      . ,     ,       ,  Ը      ,      ,      .

, ո (Hern, 1999) ,           ,                .   3  ,  ,   1998    32,5 ,  33- (   8,59)    XXI [8 -  2020     7,753 . . .].       ,  33-   .      -  3740 ,  ( ,   ) 37-       .

     (Nielsen, 2015) ,    12 000       :    10 000  500   ..,    500  1200  ..    1400  1950 .       89%     12  .       ( 500   ..  500  .. 12001400)     ,         .       :            ,     ?          5  6.

        ,    ,   .     :       XIX  (Lubbock, 1870; Michelet, 1872),   XX      ,   1940-   (  1950-)   , ,      .      (Adams, 1919)      ,                (Adams, 1920)[9 -                .  ,            ,    ,   . . .].  (Meyer, 1947)   (Halvy, 1948)        .            (Feynman, 1959),  (Moore, 1965),  (Piel, 1972),  (Moravec, 1988),  (Coren, 1998)   (Kurzweil, 2005).

      ,      ,       ,      . ,         (),            . ,        .   (   ,     )      1921  2025  (Adams, 1920).  (Coren, 1998)    2140 ,    ,  ,  ,     ,    ,   2045  (Galleon and Reedy, 2017).   (     )      ,  ,   ,     ,    .           ,              .       , ,        (Derek J. de Solla Price, 1963, 21):



         ,       ,          ,      .       ,  ,   S-   .        ,    ,  ,     ,  .              ,    ,  ,    


   (Meyer and Vallee, 1975) ,            ,  ,   ,       .        ,      ,       ,        .       S-  (  ,     [10 -   ,                   .       (   )   .    ,      ();    ,    . . .]),           .   ,    (Meyer and Vallee, 1975, 295)        :      , ,    ,         ,         .

      ,    .

,     ,    0,0001    .        0,002 /.          ,  0,20,5   .  ,     (, , ),     1   .     XIX      ,   ,    10   ,      ,   (Smil, 2017a).

           ,            (    :         ).  [11 -       ,       ,    .        .        -. . .]       (, )   XX   -      ,   ,    ,  [12 -      ,   ,    . . .], -  ,         .

, ,      ,     ,       ,   -   ,   ,       .      2 ( ,    ),   ,     ,   ,        ,         . ,  ,     .      ,         ,       .       ,      ,             .

      (   )   XVII   1000    .       ( 1850  1900 ),         1     (.1.8).






.1.8.         (Smil, 2017b).       ,              300 



  ,     ,       :   Saturn C5,     ,   2,6  (Tate, 2012).          (1012/   )    (  1316/)     (  XIX       20/,    30/),  (  100/  1900 )       (    160/  1919   550/  1945 ) , ,   ( 900/   1950- ).

          ,       ()      . ,      ,           ,             ,           .  ,    ,      ,   ,      .

,                , , , ,       ,     .               ,          .    ,       1960-       ,    ,        ,    (       ,        ).             1964  , -,  ,  ,  ,      .

     (3040/)      XIX . ,      ,        ,     ,     ,     ,        .     Boeing 787 (913/)   7% ,       Boeing 707,   1958  (977/).          .                ,           ,     .

           .            ,          ,     .        ,      :    500 ,      800 .             1960- :          200600 ,    1         .        ,    ,   ,     ,                    100         11 /     (Besselink et al., 2011).         ,         .

      ,   ,    .        ,      ,            1920-       1963  (Smil, 2005; 2006b).            :    ,     ,         ,          (Dolgonosov, 2010).




  


     :             ,         () , ,     (         ).      -    ,         ,    ,        ,       (Green, 2011).

      ,     ,   ;           ,       .          :  ,                       ,           (    )    ,      .  1880        ,           ?

  ,   , ,          .        S- ()    .            .      (Banks, 1994; Tsoularis, 2001),   , ,    S1   (Myhrvold, 2013),          70   .


S- 

S-      ,      ,        .        ,     ,      ,   ,     ,                  .       S-    .

    () ,      ,    ()           ,        .     :



      ,           .            :      ,      ,    S-  (Thompson, 1942, 145).


      1835 ,    (17961874; .1.9),         ,      Sur lhomme et le dveloppement de ses facults, ou Essai de physique sociale (     ,     ),         (Quetelet, 1835).

 ,  ,      ,    ,    ,    ,     (18041849; .1.9),            .      ,          Correspondance Mathmatique et Physique (    ) (Verhulst, 1838;      Vogels et al., 1975).       






 r    ,  K    ,         .






.1.9.      .       XIX ,  



     ,              (18171831),  (18151833),   (18111831)   (17961827),           ,     (   ),           (Verhulst, 1838, 116).             (Verhulst, 1845, 9).    ,     ,               ; ,        ( ),    (Pastijn, 2006).

       ,     ()  (.1.10).         ,     ,     .       ,   (      )       ,         .      (   )  ,        (.1.11).         ,     (   ),          ,   .

   1845   ,           (population surabondante),              ,      6,6  40 ,      XX .             ,              (Verhulst, 1847).        , ,       ,      (Schtickzelle, 1981).






.1.10.     ()   (1845)






.1.11.    



 ,      (,    )     :     (FBL)  ,          ,   ,    .    (Kunsch, 2006, 35),       ,   (+) FBL,   ,   () FBL.          ,   ,      ,    ,         1950-  1960-  (Forrester, 1971)        ,    (Meadows et al., 1972).

      (      ,        )     ,    ,    ,        .    ,  ,      ,        -   ,                ,    .        ,     .           2000   6,6  9,5 ,    XX       10,25  60,91  ,        8%    ,      52%.

   XIX       ,    ,       1920- ,     1960-  (Cramer, 2003; Kint et al., 2006; Baca?r, 2011).      :        ,   1860- ,       (Henig, 2001).             ,    ,      1849 ?      : ,   ,               ,     ,    ,       (Yule, 1925a, 4).

    (   )          .       ,      ( , -  )    (   ),    ,     .    ,        ,    ,       ,            ,     (Plasson et al., 2011; Virgo et al., 2014).

     (18531932,       )     1890  (Ostwald, 1890),   ,        :         ,  ,  ,  ,      ,  ,        .  1908    (18841930),     , , ,              ,            (.1.12)             ,          (Robertson, 1908, 586).






 1.12.   (Robertson, 1908)          



   ,     .        (McKendrick and Kesava Pai, 1911)   ,     ,    ,   1919     (Reed and Holland, 1919)    (Robertson, 1908),         .           ,   .

     (Helianthus)      84-         ,      37-  (.1.13).

 1920       ,      ,    ,  ,     (Pearl and Reed, 1920),           (Pearl and Reed, 1922).        1840- ,      ,      ,       (Pearl and Reed, 1920, 285):

     197 274 000.  ,   ,         ,     .  ,     ,      .       (         )                 ,         .






.1.13.   (   37,1- ,    292,9)  ,     (Reed and Holland, 1919)



           ,         .  2018    325,    65%       (.1.14)    ,  40%  ,    ,             .         : 1924                (Pearl, 1924, 585).






.1.14.         (   1919 ,    197,3),    ,         1790  1910  (Pearl and Reed, 1920)



     .       ,  , ,            The Chemical Basis of Growth and Senescence (    ) (Robertson, 1923).      (Spillman and Lang, 1924)     ,       .    (Reed and Berkson, 1929)             ,   (Bliss, 1935)           .                                ,      (Cramer, 2003, 6).

 1945           ,   ,      (, , ,     ,    ,   ),     (   ,  ,    )      ,   ,        (Hart, 1945).                ,    .        ,        1960-  1970-     . ,      ,        (Cavallini, 1993; Meyer et al., 1999; Arnold, 2002; Kahm et al., 2010; Conder, 2016).

         ,     .      1825    (17791865),  ,     (Gompertz, 1825).  ,     ,   ,     , ,   ,          ,           .               36,78 (1)   , ,  (Tj?rve and Tj?rve, 2017).    ,  ,     ,           (Vieira and Hoffmann, 1977).

    (Winsor, 1932, 1) ,         .               ,    .       :    (        70%   ),          ,  ,         ,              ,          (Winsor, 1932, 7).

    ,      ,         .   ,      ,     ,      ,          CO


   (Waliszewski and Konarski, 2005).          ,                       .  (Nguimkeu, 2014)            .

       :    ,      .       50%  ,          ( ),      .          ,         ,   .     (          )   S- .

         ,               .  (Tsoularis, 2001)            (von Bertalanffy, 1938),  (Richards, 1959),  (Blumberg, 1968),   . (Turner et al., 1976)   (Birch, 1999),       ,       .        :        (    S- ),                .

  (von Bertalanffy, 1938)      ()         ,           .     ( )     30% (8/27)           ,    ,    ,    (Shackell et al., 1997),  (Hampton, 1991),    (Cailliet et al., 2006)     (Kingsley, 1979).   (Roff, 1980, 127) ,          ,          ,         .    (Day and Taylor, 1997)    ,                .

 (Richards, 1959)    ,        . ,        ,     ,    (  ),       ,                ,        (Birch, 1999).         40%   50%  .   . (Turner et al., 1976)        .    (Blumberg, 1968)     ,      ,    .

  ,           (Weibull, 1951)        ,       ,        .              ,         (Yang et al., 1978; Buan and Wang, 1995; Gmez-Garc?a et al., 2013).    -        ,   (Birch, 1999),        (Tsoularis, 2001).    ,        ,           ,    (Tsoularis, 2001)     ,         .


   

           ,   ,     ,      . ,       ,                    .      (Noel Bonneuil, 2005, 267)     ,              ,                    ,    :       ,                 :          ,      .

,          .           ,         ,            .                 ,        1025%     1020 .

      ,      ,  (Hart, 1945)         1903  1938 :            1932      350/,            . -,     (      )   ,        .  Lockheed L1049 Super Constellation,      1951 ,    489/    531/,    50%     .






.1.15. ,      : Boeing 707.   wikimedia



Super Constellation     ,     .    de Havilland Comet       1951        1954 ,     Boeing 707,    Pan Am,    1958  (Smil, 2010b; .1.15).  ,   ,      (   1919 )                     1945      900/ (.1.16).            1960-          ,         (Smil, 2010b).






.1.16.  ,          1919  2039  (   1945 ,    930,8/).        ,   de Havilland DH16  KLM  1919    Boeing 787  2009 



 1970-  ,           ,  Concorde (    2150/,   2,4  ,    )   ,   2003       (Glancey, 2016).  2018    (Spark Aerospace  Aerion Corporation  Airbus, Lockheed Martin  Boom Technology  )     , ,          ,  ,   XXI      (   )  .

            ,           廠         .  (Modis, 1992)           (         )       (  -      ).            :   ,   1990-      90%   .     2017      80% ,   2000 ,   ,   ,    (World Bank, 2018).

 ,       ,    (Gr?bler, 1990).    30 ,  ,        .         :      90%    1988 .

     425  ,       475,   2017    1 ,      ,        (Davis et al., 2018).

 (Marchetti, 1985; 1986b)           ,  ,    ,  ,       ,         ,  9095%   (Marchetti, 1986b, .42).    ,    ,        35     ,     (Marchetti, 1985, 4).  (Modis, 1992)        .

     S- ,  (Modis, 1992, 7576)   ,      ,        ,        ,    ,     .  ,     1%     ,      644 ,            91%, ,   ,     .        .

,      !    ,    ,  626     1761  1791  (Giegling et al., 1964).       ,          1780  (R


=0,995):    784 ,   1806 ,     50 ,    759   (.1.17).         ,  ,       (  )   (R


=0,9982),  955   1806  (.1.17b).






.1.17.  ,    ,  ()   (b)  ,   (c)     (d),        (R







  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/vaclav-smil/ot-mikroorganizmov-do-megapolisov-poisk-kompromissa-mezhdu-pro-69114613/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes


Notes





1


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2


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3


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4


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5


     ,                    . . .




6


   ,     x    ,      e ( ,   2,72),   x. . .




7


                       ,            . . .




8


 2020     7,753 . . .




9


               .  ,            ,    ,   . . .




10


  ,                   .       (   )   .    ,      ();    ,    . . .




11


      ,       ,    .        .        -. . .




12


     ,   ,    . . .


