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    .     !

 [3 - . Gunkel, D. (2018) Robot Rights, Cambridge, MA: TheMIT Press, p.ix.]

      ,     ,    .

 [4 - . Asimov, I. andShulman, J.A. (1988) Asimov's Book ofScience andNature Quotations, NewYork: Grove Press.]

            ,      .  ,     ,      . ,     ,       : -,   ,       ,  ,       ,  ,      ࠖ   ; -,    ,            , .

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    ,   ,  ,      .   ,      ,      ,  [ ] .    ,     ,    -  [5 - . Chace, C. (2016) TheEconomic Singularity, London: Three Cs Publishing, p.208.].


       ,   ,  Microsoft,    ,    ,    [6 -      :         ,      . Ƞ:         ,   ,  ,  .   TheFinancial Times 25/26 2017.      :    ,   ,    ,   .       ,    ,  ;  ,     ,       ,    .  , ,    ,       .    (Barry Brownstein)  CapX 21 2018.].

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       ,       ,   .       ? ,       1920.  R.U.R. (   )  -  [15 -         - . . .].  ,      robota,   ,  robotrick,  ꠫[16 - . Ross, A. (2016) TheIndustries ofthe Future, London: Simon & Schuster, p.35.].

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     1955.  ,     .     ,  Bell IBM   , ꠫   ,   ,  ,   ,   [17 - . Anthes, G. (2017) Artificial Intelligence Poised toRide aNew Wave, Communications ofthe ACM, 60(7): p.19.].

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      ,  ,    ,         [18 - ., ,  : Owen-Hill, A. (2017) What's theDifference between Robotics andArtificial Intelligence? (https://blog.robotiq.com/whats-the-difference-betweenrobotics-and-artificial-intelligence (https://blog.robotiq.com/whats-the-difference-betweenrobotics-and-artificial-intelligence)), Wilson H. (2015) What isa Robot Anyway? Harvard Business Review (https://hbr.org/2015/04/what-is-a-robot-anyway (https://hbr.org/2015/04/what-is-a-robot-anyway)), Simon, M. (2017) What isa Robot? (https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-a-robot/ (https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-a-robot/)), Gabinsky, I. (2018) Autonomous vs. Automated, Oracle Database Insider (https://blogs.oracle.com/database/autonomous-vs- (https://blogs.oracle.com/database/autonomous-vs-)), Cerf, V. G. (2013) What's aRobot? Association forComputing Machinery Communications ofthe ACM, 56(1): p.7.].                .         .                .    ,    ,    ,       ,         .




   


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 [19 - P.Krugman (2017) New Zealand Parliament, volume 644, week 63 (https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/48HansD_20071204/volume-644-week-63-tuesday-4-december-2007 (https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/48HansD_20071204/volume-644-week-63-tuesday-4-december-2007)).]

 250       .

 [20 - Gordon, R. (2012) IsUS Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts Six Headwinds, Working Paper: , Massachusetts: NBER.]

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     .    .  1900.      3,5    1800.  2000.     30  1800.[24 -   ,       .          (Brad De Long) Estimates ofWorld GDP, one Million B. C. Present, 1998 (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/)).  ,  ,      ;       (Nordhaus effect),    .  ,    ,     ;     2000.   8,5    1800.] ,     .       ,       ,     [25 -   Capital Economics (2017),  History Does Not Support Pessimism about Productivity Potential (      ),         . . https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/global-economics-focus/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivitypotential/ (https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/global-economics-focus/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivitypotential/).].

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,      ,  ,         .     .1.1.         ,     .  ,      ,  ,        .     XIX.    ,         ,      .    ꠫ () ,      (   ,  1848.[33 - .  Allen, R. C. (2009) Engels' Pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, andinequality inthe British Industrial Revolution, Explorations inEconomic History.])        .

    ,  1850. (..  ,  ,   ,     )     ,      ,     [34 - . Harari, Y. N. (2016) Homo Deus: ABrief History ofTomorrow, London: Harvill Secker.].         ,    1870.        ,      .       ,  ,  ,  1900.      ,  XVI.[35 - . Allen, R. C. (2001) TheCurrent Divergence inEuropean Wages andPrices from theMiddle Ages tothe Frist World war, Explorations inEconomic History 38, pp. 411447.]

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     ,      .         (Principles ofPolitical Economy andTaxation),  1821.,        Π[37 - . Ricardo, D. (1821) Principles ofPolitical Economy andTaxation.].     :  ,            .   200      .




    


    ,  ,   ,  .          ,    .            ,   .        ,  ,  .  1900.     40%  .  1950.   12%,  2%.      9% 1900., 5% 1950. 1% .

               .  ,      ,    .  1915.      26.      .     堖  10. Ƞ   .  1915.           ,        (,  ..)[38 - . Emily R. Kilby (2007) TheDemographics ofthe US Equine Population, State ofthe Animals Series 4, Chapter 10, pp. 175205. TheHumane Society Institute forScience andPolicy (Animal Studies Repository).].

      ,  ,        ꠫ .   , ,  ,    (   )     (  ,     ,    ).

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         ,       ,  .  ,                ,      .

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   ,   [44 -        Vicky Redwood andNikita Shah (2017) History Does Not Suggest Pessimism about Productivity Potential, Capital Economics  (https://research.cdn-1.capitaleconomics.com/f993f5/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivity-potential.pdf (https://research.cdn-1.capitaleconomics.com/f993f5/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivity-potential.pdf).).]. ,     .     20072009.       ,  . Ƞ       ,   GFC     ,    [45 -          Bootle, R. (2009) TheTrouble with Markets, London: Nicholas Brealey.].




 


 ,          ,       [46 -  ,        ,     .   2008 2016.        2% .  ,     1950 1973.    2000- .,         .   ,       1500.].          ,   .   , ,     .     ,   .          (. secular stagnation),    1930- .     ,       , ,   ( ,     :   ,    ,   ).

   (蠫 )  ,           .  ,    ,  -       , ,    ,         ,     .

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  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=69203971)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


  TheDaily Telegraph 16 2018.




2


  TheFinancial Times 6 2018.




3


. Gunkel, D. (2018) Robot Rights, Cambridge, MA: TheMIT Press, p.ix.




4


. Asimov, I. andShulman, J.A. (1988) Asimov's Book ofScience andNature Quotations, NewYork: Grove Press.




5


. Chace, C. (2016) TheEconomic Singularity, London: Three Cs Publishing, p.208.




6


     :         ,      . Ƞ:         ,   ,  ,  .   TheFinancial Times 25/26 2017.      :    ,   ,    ,   .       ,    ,  ;  ,     ,       ,    .  , ,    ,       .    (Barry Brownstein)  CapX 21 2018.




7


,   ,    Y2K,       1999. 2000.,       ,     .     . . .




8


   - (Rory Cellan-Jones),  BBC, 2 2014.




9


 컠       (Royal Greenwich Observatory) ;    1972.,   . . .




10


 :     "",    ,      ,        .  ,  ,    , ,  ,     ,  ,   .   ,          ,               ,     ,  ,    , , .   TheDaily Telegraph 23 2015.




11


. Shanahan (2015).




12


렖   ,     .      .  :      ,                  .         " , ". . Brockman, J. (2015) What toThink About Machines That Think: Today's Leading Thinkers onthe Age ofMachine Intelligence (NewYork: Harper Collins Publishers), p.15.




13


. Brockman, J. (2015) What toThink about Machines That Think, NewYork: HarperCollins, pp. 4546.




14


 Brockman 2015, p.362.




15


        - . . .




16


. Ross, A. (2016) TheIndustries ofthe Future, London: Simon & Schuster, p.35.




17


. Anthes, G. (2017) Artificial Intelligence Poised toRide aNew Wave, Communications ofthe ACM, 60(7): p.19.




18


., ,  : Owen-Hill, A. (2017) What's theDifference between Robotics andArtificial Intelligence? (https://blog.robotiq.com/whats-the-difference-betweenrobotics-and-artificial-intelligence (https://blog.robotiq.com/whats-the-difference-betweenrobotics-and-artificial-intelligence)), Wilson H. (2015) What isa Robot Anyway? Harvard Business Review (https://hbr.org/2015/04/what-is-a-robot-anyway (https://hbr.org/2015/04/what-is-a-robot-anyway)), Simon, M. (2017) What isa Robot? (https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-a-robot/ (https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-a-robot/)), Gabinsky, I. (2018) Autonomous vs. Automated, Oracle Database Insider (https://blogs.oracle.com/database/autonomous-vs- (https://blogs.oracle.com/database/autonomous-vs-)), Cerf, V. G. (2013) What's aRobot? Association forComputing Machinery Communications ofthe ACM, 56(1): p.7.




19


P.Krugman (2017) New Zealand Parliament, volume 644, week 63 (https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/48HansD_20071204/volume-644-week-63-tuesday-4-december-2007 (https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/48HansD_20071204/volume-644-week-63-tuesday-4-december-2007)).




20


Gordon, R. (2012) IsUS Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts Six Headwinds, Working Paper: , Massachusetts: NBER.




21


 ,  ,  1817.,   ,            .   ,   ,            XIX.




22


Morris, I. (2010) Why theWest Rules ForNow: ThePatterns ofHistory, andWhat They Reveal About theFuture, NewYork: Farrar, Straus andGiroux, p.492.




23


,  ,    ,        ,      .  ,      ,   ,  ,     100.    ,      ,       ,     ,  ,      .       .




24


  ,       .          (Brad De Long) Estimates ofWorld GDP, one Million B. C. Present, 1998 (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/)).  ,  ,      ;       (Nordhaus effect),    .  ,    ,     ;     2000.   8,5    1800.




25


  Capital Economics (2017),  History Does Not Support Pessimism about Productivity Potential (      ),         . . https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/global-economics-focus/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivitypotential/ (https://www.capitaleconomics.com/clients/publications/global-economics/global-economics-focus/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivitypotential/).




26


. Mokyr, J. (1990) TheLever ofRiches, NewYork: Oxford University Press.




27


. Williams, T. (2003) AHistory ofInvention from Stone Axes toSilicon Chips, London: Time Warner.




28


Scott, J. (2017) Against theGrain: ADeep History ofthe Earliest States, New Haven: Yale University Press.




29


          , , , . ,         XVIII,  XVII,         0,3%    XVI.             ,   .




30


. Malthus, T. (1798) AnEssay onthe Principle ofPopulation, London: J. Johnson.




31


.




32


. Darwin, C. (1868) TheVariations ofAnimals andPlants under Domestication, United Kingdom: John Murray.




33


.  Allen, R. C. (2009) Engels' Pause: Technical change, capital accumulation, andinequality inthe British Industrial Revolution, Explorations inEconomic History.




34


. Harari, Y. N. (2016) Homo Deus: ABrief History ofTomorrow, London: Harvill Secker.




35


. Allen, R. C. (2001) TheCurrent Divergence inEuropean Wages andPrices from theMiddle Ages tothe Frist World war, Explorations inEconomic History 38, pp. 411447.




36


 , 䠫      .     ,        . . .




37


. Ricardo, D. (1821) Principles ofPolitical Economy andTaxation.




38


. Emily R. Kilby (2007) TheDemographics ofthe US Equine Population, State ofthe Animals Series 4, Chapter 10, pp. 175205. TheHumane Society Institute forScience andPolicy (Animal Studies Repository).




39


. ONS (2013) 2011 Census Analysis, 170 Years ofIndustry.




40


  Ian Stewart, Debapratim De andAlex Cole (2014) Technology andPeople: TheGreat Job-Creating Machine, Deloitte.




41


.       (Labour's Share speech),     (Andy Haldane),     (Bank ofEngland)   - () (Trades Union Congress)  12 2015. . https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/news/2015/november/labors-share-speech-by-andy-haldane (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk//media/boe/files/news/2015/november/labors-share-speech-by-andy-haldane).




42


     ,    XVIII.      (. Spinning Jenny).      ,    . . .




43


 ,   () + . . .




44


       Vicky Redwood andNikita Shah (2017) History Does Not Suggest Pessimism about Productivity Potential, Capital Economics  (https://research.cdn-1.capitaleconomics.com/f993f5/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivity-potential.pdf (https://research.cdn-1.capitaleconomics.com/f993f5/history-does-not-support-pessimism-about-productivity-potential.pdf).).




45


         Bootle, R. (2009) TheTrouble with Markets, London: Nicholas Brealey.




46


 ,        ,     .   2008 2016.        2% .  ,     1950 1973.    2000- .,         .   ,       1500.




47


       ,     .  . ,         ,   ,  .        (  ),     . ,        . Ѡ2008.       0,6%     1600- .     0,4%    ,   XVIII.,  蠖 0,7%,     XIX.        ,   1970- .    Total Factor andProductivity (TFP),        ,       (..  -    ,  ),     1,5% .       0,9%


