 .  
 


            ,    : , , , .       ,     COVID-19,     ,            .

    ,   ,     ,     ,     ,  ,              .

  a4.pdf   .





 

 

 



Niall Ferguson

Doom. The Politics of Catastrophe


* * *

     .            .         .



 2021, Niall Ferguson All rights reserved

 . ,    , 2023

 . ,  , , 2023

   , 2023

 CORPUS











		   :
		    ;
		     
		  
		   
		 !

    腻[1 - . . .  .:  . . ., 1982. (   . .,    .)]






 


,                     .   2020 ,        ,    .    26     ,     [2 - Davos Man Is Cooling on Stockholm Girl Greta Thunberg, Sunday Times, January 26, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/davos-maniscoolingonstockholm-girl-greta-thunberg-z2sqcx872.].     ,    (,           ,    ).      ( Fox News  Washington Post)   ,          . 2   :          ,      ,     兠     ,              ,      [3 - The Deadliest Virus We Face Is Complacency, Sunday Times, February 2, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-deadliest-virus-we-face-is-complacency-wsp7xdr7s.].        .                .         ,    -,    (8 ),  (10 ),  (13 ),  (19 ),   - (24 ),     - (27 ).     ,         .        ,     :  -, -, ,   -. ,  ,      .     ,         .    ,      ,  -           .

   2020          . ,      ,            . (   ,   .)   ,   29 ,   ,   ,  14%,   ,    ,    .        -  .      ,     ,              ,     COVID-19 .    :             .



,   :     ,     

   ,       ,    ,       .     ,    ,       ,   .    ,  [4 - Trump May Shrug Off Coronavirus. America May Not, Sunday Times, March 1, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-may-shrug-off-coronavirus-america-may-not-bmvw9rqzd.].


  ,  8   Wall Street Journal,  :        ,    ,      ,      46      300 .          ,   ,    1200[5 - Network Effects Multiply a Viral Threat, Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/network-effects-multiplyaviral-threat-11583684394.].         541    22 .   46     24 ,   1200   25     [6 - Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.]. 15   :       , ,        ,     (  )      [7 - The First Coronavirus Error Was Keeping Calm, Sunday Times, March 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-first-coronavirus-error-was-keeping-calm-zvj28s0rp.].     ,      ,     . ,  ,      .

      -     2020 .      ,       ?   ,     ,       ,    ,      ,  ,   ,    1892 .          ,  ,  ,      - ,   .  ,         ,           ,   ,  ,        .        ,   [8 - Richard J. Evans, Death in Hamburg: Society and Politics in the Cholera Years, 18301910 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).].            ,   ,  ,   1918       -  ,  , ,  [9 - Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 342f.].       (The War of the World)        19181919   ,           ,     ,  [10 - Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 144f.].

 2000-             .       ,    ,           ,     ,    1690- . (        .)    ,    ,    ,    .      -       [11 - Niall Ferguson, Empire: The Rise and Fall of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), p. 65.].       ,        ,        .  ,               .       ,     [12 - Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 175.].    ,           [13 - . . .][14 - Niall Ferguson, The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 144.],    ,  ,   ,   ,           ,      [15 - . . .][16 - Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook


 (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 203.].

       2020 .  COVID-19    .    26   , ,         ,     ,    SARS-CoV-2[17 - SeroTracker, Public Health Agency of Canada, https://serotracker.com/Dashboard.].      900  ,    ,       (     )   .    ,          6%  ,      ,    :        .     ,   ,   ,     ,   ,         ,   31  2020 ,        [18 -     .: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/.       ,    ,    ,    ,    ,       ,   .     ,            :        ,        ,  .].   ,                   [19 - Patrick G. T. Walker et al., The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.]. ,        - ,  ,   - ,       .           ,    20082009 ,  ,     ,   .

    ,     ?  :          ,      (  )       .    ,       ,      :  (),  (),  (),  ( ).  ,  ,   , ,  ,  , ,            .   ,     ,      ,   ?




 


    ,       ,  ,    (,  ,    ,  ),     , ,   .                 ,     66  ,   ,     .       ,          ,        .          .     ,    ,      ,      [20 -  : Ferguson, Square and the Tower.].             .   ,  :      ,   ,   ,     ,     [21 - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).].     ,    ,    .

    .   ,      ,  ,   Homo sapiens.              ,           .      ,     ,         ,        .  ,      ,     .         ,   ,    ,     ,   ,   . ,   , ,  ,         .    ,  ,     (       )   ,  -   .      ,                .

 doom  , ,           ,     :    ,         [22 - South Africas Doom Pastor Found Guilty of Assault, BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.].     dom,  dm   dmr  ,       ( , ).     [23 - All unavoided is the doom of destiny. . . .  .  III.  IV,  4.],    III.       ?[24 - What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom? . . .  . .  IV,  1.]   .  ,   .               (            ).          .         ,         . ,      ,   COVID-19,       Netflix      2011 ,     (,   )[25 - Nicole Sperling, Contagion, Steven Soderberghs 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts, New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.].  ,  ,    -- (  1975 )        .  .

             ,    ,   ,      .     .     .      ,     .         ,        .       -        1914 ,         (1932).    ,    ,  ,     ,     [26 - - .     / . . . ., 1994.][27 - Louis-Ferdinand Cline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.].                ,    .         .    ,   ,       (        ),        ,  1940-.

 1940   .       ,   ,   [28 - Marc Bloch, Ltrange dfaite: Tmoignage crit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).].     ,    ,          .    COVID-19  ,  ,    -,      .       ,       ,  ,  ,    .         .            ,   ,   -   ,   .

          ?   ,          ?      ?      .       .




 


    ,    !    ,    ,        , , , -          :            ,     ?    :  .   ,  ,           ,    ,     .      ,   ,       .   ,           . ,  ,    .      .

   ,       :     .    ?  ,   . ,      ,   , ,  ,    [29 - Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).]. ,    ,     ,         ,      .    ,   ,      , , ,  ,     ,     ,   .              .      ,    [30 - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).].          -.  ,        .      ?     ?      .               (  ,  ).      :      ,        .    ,      :              (  ,          [31 - Didier Sornette, Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 0936 (2009),   : SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.]),      ,   .         ,    .  , ,   ,       ,   ,            .  ,  ,    ,   .         , , .  ,   ,     ,      ,        ( ).

 ,     ,        ,  ,   ,      .   ,           ,     . ( .   .)      ,     .          ,    .       ,        .    ,             ,              .              (Religion and the Decline of Magic),       ,           [32 - Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).].

      ,           ,     ,    .   ,   .       [33 - Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).].      ,    .  ,        (    -  )[34 - Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).].         ,    .        ,            ?     :



1.   .

2. .

3.      .

4. .

5.,    .



 ,        ,   ,   ,    ,    :



     :         , ,   .    ,     ,    ,       .    ,     ,     ,              ,    ,    .     ,       .   [35 - Henry A. Kissinger, Decision Making in a Nuclear World (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.].


    ,      ,          .     ,    ,   .                .

         .        .     ,       ( 1986 ),       ,          .       NASA,    ,     1  100 000,          1  100[36 - Richard Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think? Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179184.].  ,     ,    .      -  ,         [37 - House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response, Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.].      ,     ,         (   ).

,             ,     ,    ,      .      ,   ,   ,        ?       ,              ? ,       .    .      -  .   XVII               ,     1665 .           ,      ,    2020 :    ,         ,      .       ,        ,     .       ,   2016  - ,     .




 :    


                .         ,       ,    .          .      ,    ,    ,     .

              .           ,     ,     ,        .          XIV     .     ,     ,    : ,  ,      ;         ,             -,      .   XIX      ,       .          (,   ),         ,              -.    1950-       .

 XX    .    ,      ,          .  1950-  1980-     ,    ,    .  ,      ,    .          ,      ,  ,   [38 - J.R. Hampton, The End of Medical History? Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366375.].  ,    .    /,   ,   ,     .

     ,      ,  ,      ,     .       2020 ,       ,          .            ,         :    .    -,     ,    ,     ,        .        ,         .     .    (     )     :  ,  ,          .       (Schicksalsgemeinschaft)    ,   ,      .       ,        .                    ,   .      ,    ,    ,          ,      .           ,                     . , ,               ,   COVID-19    ,      .




 


          ?

-,    ,  , .                   ,     ,      ,   .

-,     ,          .               ,   .   ,            ,       .   ?     .         ,     .         . ,                .  ,                 ,          ,      (ESG)    .   , ,    ,      .       - ,    .      ,     (  ,       ,  ),  , ,        .     ,   2020      ,    ,    () ,    ,  ,  ,      -.

-,      . ,      ,          .       ,                       .  ,    ,    .  2020                 COVID-19   .                 ,     .

-, COVID-19,     ,              .               ,  ,  .                     .     2020-   :               ,    -,   -,             ,      ,     .            .   ,       ,   ,    SARS-CoV-2,  ,  ,       .    ,        ,           :  ,  [39 - Larry Brilliant, My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics, February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.].          .        ?           ?  ,  ,        ,      , , ,    .

, ,     :               .       ,   , ,   ,    ( ),    .  ,      -        ,       (  ),         .  2020          ,    (    )         .      ,    , ,          ,     .            .         ,    ,          ,      .

COVID-19    ,    .          ,    ,              . ,      ,    :      ,  ,   ,        . ,        .             .  ,           [40 - .  : Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).].        ,            . ,   2020      COVID-19. (   -    ,     6 .)  ,  ,                            .              :



     .      ,    - ,  -      ,    , ,     13,8                    ,    - ,        ,    .  -    ,                ,          [41 - Ricki Harris, Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of Biological Boot Loader for AI, Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.].


 ,  ,               . (  .)    ,    ,    ,            .       .

    ,      ,        ,        . ,   ,    ,      ,     ,      .   ,               ,  ,       ,    ,             ,    .




 1

  



		 ,  ,  

[42 - . . .  . .  V,  2.]






  


 .  ,               ,       .    ,            ,             .     ( )   ,           -    .  ,  ,          .                ,       .    ,      .      ,        , : !    ! --!



 :   ,  ?

 :  , , .     .    .


         .  2056  ( )    .       ,      ,   ,   ,  26,2                 ,  .       :             ,     ,      .  ,     ,         (Living to 100),             .      ,    , ,                [43 - Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.]. ,    ,   COVID-19       12%     (  , ,   ,     ).

,        .             107  ,        .  ,   ,              1920      .  1543  1863               .       ,          1900 ,       ,     1960 .  1911         .    1920          .             1913  2006          .        :   [44 - Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, Life Expectancy, Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.].     -   ,       .  12,2% ,   ,  ,    ; 2,5%       [45 - Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births), World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT; Mortality Rate Age 514, UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, https://childmortality.org/data/Somalia.].

          ,     (15721631)     I,    .         .   ,         .          .    ,   ,          ,           (1624),     :      ,      ,      ,    :     [46 -  .     / . . . ., 2004.  XVII.].

    , ,      memento mori     (Lumana fragilit?).        ,      1655 .       ,   , ,      .  ,  ,        ,       ,      - .  ,  ,      ,  ,   ,   :

		Conceptio culpa
		Nasci pena
		Labor vita
		Necesse mori

  ,   ,    ,   .    ,     ,    ,      .     ,     ,   .   ,      ;   ,            .     ,    ,   :       , ,     ,     ,        [47 - Salvator Rosa, 16151673, LUmana Fragilita (  ), . 1656,  , , https://www.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/pharos/collection_pages/italy_pages/PD_53_1958/TXT_SE-PD_53_1958.html.].        .

   ,           ,     .          ,    ,      .     ,       ,     ,        .   XVII     .      ,      ,           .        ,     ,       ,  XX      .      , ,   . ,   ,    :      ,       [48 - Philippe Aries, The Hour of Our Death, trans. Helen Weaver (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1981).].     .  .            (1948),     .

,      .            .            (     )       :



:  .

: !          

: !   .

:    , 

:   .   .  .

:    .

:   ?

: ?

:   ,     ?

 (  ,     ):  .

: ? ,    ?

: ,  ,  !





 


      59     ,   ,     ,      .   :     160        -.   60%   65   .    2020      COVID-19       510  .   ,      .           -     ,   , ,      ( 1,8%)     ,      2020 .  2018   2,84  ,    236   ,  7800  .       .            44%    .          (CDC),    2020     130 122 ,   COVID-19.      ( )   170  .  ,          -     ,  , ,       11%   ,     .

,   ,         ,   ,   . ,     ,     [49 - Adam Leith Gollner, The Immortality Financiers: The Billionaires Who Want to Live Forever, Daily Beast, August 20, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-immortality-financiers-the-billionaires-who-wanttolive-forever.],       ,         [50 - Jon Stewart, Borges on Immortality, Philosophy and Literature 17, no. 2 (October 1993), pp. 295301.].      ,  ? : .

,        -,   .     ,    (,  -)[51 - Murray Gell-Mann, Regularities in Human Affairs, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2 (2011), pp. 53f.].   13,7   ,      .             ,  ,   3,5  4       .  1,2          ,    .               . Homo sapiens   :  200  100   .          30   ,   13        [52 - Cynthia Stokes Brown, Big History: From the Big Bang to the Present (New York: New Press, 2007), pp. 53f. . : Fred Spier, Big History and the Future of Humanity (Chichester, UK: Blackwell, 2011), p. 68.].      ,      .   [53 -           ,        .     ,           ,      .],   ,    .     99,9% , -   ,  .

        :       ,   ,      [54 - Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi, Introduction, in Global Ca tastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 9.].         ,   3,5        .          ,   0,91,5  ,    ,           ,   .        [55 - Bostrom and irkovi, Introduction, p. 8.]. ,  ,         ,          .            :        ,        .

  ,            ,    .         ,       .  ,   (   ???????),      ,        .  -        ,    , []     ,     .       ,  ,   , -,   ,  ,   ,            .      .   ,              .          ,        .        ,  ( ):    ()      ,        ,       (),        . (        .)

          .       :       .    ,     ,   ,     .   ,   ,  ,      ,      .     ,  ,   ,    ( 24:1522),  ,       ( 13:19),    (        21:1033).     , ,      :           ;           ,                      ,   ,      .            .               .     :



  ,       ,       ,     :   .

 ,  ,  ,    ,  ,     ;     ,   .

     ,    , :   .

   , ;         ,     ;     .

     ,    , :   .  ,  ,  ,    ,     .

      , :    ,      ;      .

     ,     , :   .

  ,  ,  ,    ,   ;     ;           ,  ,     .

 6:18


    ,     .    ,        .






 .    (1498)



     ,      ,    :         ,   ,      ( 24:36).

  70    ,          ,     .    ,   ,  [56 - . : Tom Holland, Dominion: How the Christian Revolution Remade the World (New York: Basic Books, 2019).].    ,  ,      .        (426)     ,        ()  .

,        -       ,      VII .             .       ,        - - ()       .      ()    .     -   ,     ,        (),   ;    ;     (  ),       .       ,      -    - ( );    ,   (-)    ( -). ,    ,         .     ,  ,     ,  ,      ,       ,  [57 - Richard Landes, Heaven on Earth: The Varieties of Millennial Experience (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 426f. . : Paul Casanova, Mohammed et la fin du monde: tude critique sur lIslam primitive (Paris: P. Geuthner, 1911), pp. 17f.].       ,            ,  -.

                   .    ,   . -         :       .   (11351202)          , .    ,     1340-       ,     ,  -   ,  ,   .  1356  -      Vade mecum in tribulatione (  ),       :  , ,    [58 - Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1961 [1957]), pp. 106f.].       1420   ,   1485-    ,   [59 - Holland, Dominion, p. 300.].   ,   ,         ,       , ,    ,       .    XVIII      ,  XIXXX    :      (     )       ,     1844 . ( ,      .)           ()       .      ,      .     ,    ,     ,        .

 ,         .




 


   ,             .    .     ,          ,  ,  ,  [60 - James J. Hughes, Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats, in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 9, 78, 83.].     ,        ,    , ,    ,  ,  ,   ;   (   )  ;     ;      ,     ;    ,  ,   [61 - Holland, Dominion, p. 451.].     ,        ,          [62 - Robert Service, Lenin: A Biography (London: Pan Macmillan, 2011), pp. 538, 539, 594. . : Robert C. Williams, The Russian Revolution and the End of Time: 19001940, Jahrb?cher f?r Geschichte Osteuropas, Neue Folge, 43, no. 3 (1995), pp. 364401.]. 21  1919   New York Times ,           ,  ,     [63 - Lenin Opposed as Antichrist by Peasants in Old Russia, New York Times, June 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/1919/06/21/archives/lenin-opposedasantichristbypeasantsinold-russia.html.].

 ʸ,    Ը ,   (  ,       1938 )        . Ը             ;  ,      .  ,      ,       [64 -  :  .  Ը       //  Ը.   . . ., 2021.].       ,            ,     [65 - Eric Voegelin, The New Science of Politics: An Introduction, 4th ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 120f.].  ,   Ը,               [66 -  Ը.   .  / . . . ., 2021.][67 - Voegelin, The New Science, p. 124.]. (Ը ,                [68 - Voegelin, The New Science, pp. 122, 129, 131f.].)  ,         ,              ,       [69 - Landes, Heaven on Earth, p. 470.].

,    ,    . ,   ,       -,   -,      (  ):   ,  [70 - James A. Hijiya, The Gita of J. Robert Oppenheimer, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 144, no. 2 (June 2000).].        ,        ,     [71 - Doomsday Clock, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/.].       -    ,   ,    ,       :  ,    ,    ,  .        .     ,  , ,    .      ,     .            19531959 ,        .      19841987 :           .       .      (1957),     1963 ,    ,    ,           ,  (  )      .             .          (1982)  ,    ,    ,        ,   .

        .       ,         .     1962        ,   1963-     23:48   ,           .  ,   2018   ,        [72 - Sewell Chan, Doomsday Clock Is Set at 2 Minutes to Midnight, Closest Since 1950s, New York Times, January 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/world/americas/doomsday-clock-nuclear-scientists.html.],       ,     ,   ,    -     (    ),    ,               .           -  ,   ,        ,     [73 - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, Closer than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight, ed. John Mecklin, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/.]. ,     ,  .

      ,      .  1960-   1980-             ,           .     RAND[74 -  RAND   - ,     ,   .] , ,           ,      250  ,     .      (The Population Bomb, 1968),    -[75 - -    .], ,   1970-       .               ,         ,    .  1969   ,        , ,         ,         ,    ,  ,           .                        .       ,      ,    ,     .  ,    ,    ,    ,      .              .      -   .  ,                [76 - Matthew Connelly, How Did the Population Control Movement Go So Terribly Wrong? Wilson Quarterly (Summer 2008), https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/summer-2008-saving-the-world/how-did-population-control-movementgosoterribly-wrong/. . : Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008).]. ,  ,  ,         ,      ,     ,   .

     .   2030 ,   ,     ,       ,          [77 - Greta Thunberg, No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference (London: Penguin, 2019), p. 46.].      ,       ,   2019    -[78 - William Cummings, The World Is Going to End in 12 Years If We Dont Address Climate Change, Ocasio-Cortez Says, USA Today, January 22, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez-climate-change-alarm/2642481002/.].                    - ,     .     ,         2020 .     .     ,             ,        ,             [79 - Greta Thunbergs Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum, New York Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.].        ,   -,   ,                 .      ,    ,            ,      (  !   ).

   ,   -,  ,   ,  ,  ,  ,    ,       ,  .         (Beyond the Fringe, 1961),          ,          .



 :     ,   ,  ?

: ,    ?

 : ,          ,        ,      ,      .

:       ?

:           ,    :      .

 :    ,  ?

: , ,   ,       

 :      ,      ?

:  ,               - 

:    ,   ?

: ,    , ?

:   ,        .



      ,    ,    :



: , , , ,   !

 ():       !



.



:    ,  ?

: .

:  ,  ,  . , ,         !







      !        .




 


       ,     ,  ,    .   ,           .     ,    .     .    ?       ,   1947   Washington Post:



  ,        [  ],    .    ,   .  , ,       ,      .       :       ,  .   ,    [80 - Leonard Lyons, Loose-Leaf Notebook, Washington Post, January 20, 1947.].


   ,   ,              , ,   ,     : ?  ,      !      .      ![81 - Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik! Kurt Tucholsky, Franz?sische Witze (I)  Noch einmal franz?sische Witze (II), Vossische Zeitung, August 23, 1925; September 10, 1925.    .: Tucholsky, K. Lerne lachen ohne zu weinen (Berlin: Ernst Rowohlt, 1932), pp. 147156.]    ,    ,    : ,      ,   ,    ,  : ,  ,      ,   ,      ,    :    ,       .      - ,   ,   ,   -  [82 - Eliezer Yudkowsky, Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks, in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 114.].

          .          ,   ,     ,   ,    ,     1%       ,       3%,           30% (, ,       )[83 - Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (, 2020); Lee Mordechai, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, and Hendrik Poinar, The Justinianic Plague: An Inconsequential Pandemic? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (henceforth PNAS) 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.].  ,        ,      . ,         ,     ,   ,     ,       0,1%   ( ,    ,    ).     ,          .        1820  1945 ,       7    ,    ,     ,   (60%)      ,  ,   ,   [84 -    : Brian Hayes, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, American Scientist 90 (January  February 2002), pp. 1015.].    (  1914  1939 )    1  3%  . , ,    ,   ;    ,       (III. ..),        [85 -  : Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 14951975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983).     : Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts, Tail Risk Working Papers (2015), arXiv:1505.04722v2; Cirillo and Taleb, The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?,  .: The Causes of Peace: What We Know Now, ed. Asle Toje and B?rd Nikolas Vik Steen (Austin: Lioncrest, 2020), pp. 5177; Bear F. Braumoeller, Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019); Aaron Clauset, On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars,  .: Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences (Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol. 27), ed. Nils Gleditsch (Berlin: Springer, 2020), pp. 113127.].              ,    ,             (18641870),         (,       ).       .   ,           ,   .     ,          19%  [86 - Cirillo and Taleb, Statistical Properties.].          ,     ,      [87 - Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993).          ,         , .: David S. Jones, Virgin Soils Revisited, William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703742. . : Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 14921650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.)].

       ,  ,      ,    , ,   .       , ,     , .     10%       ,       (19101920)     (19721979).     ,    6     :   (18511864),     (18611865);     (19181920);     (19271936);     (19361939)   ,        (19461948).

  ,        ,  XX .    ,   ,   XIII  ,  ,         37  ,     ,    10%     .              XIV :   ,  ,  10 .     (XVII.), ,   , 25  .    1900      ,     ,      ,  ,   ,    ,        XX .    (VIII.),  ,     30  .       ( )   ( ),     ,           - .          ,            .   , -,     40  90%.         ,    ,  ,   .

, ,   ,    ,           ,        ,    XX .   ,           ,   ,   ,    ,        ,   ,        XIX   . ,  ,     1886    ,      1904                  . ,         .            ,    ,  ,    ,         XX . ,     76  ,     1886  1908 ,   ,    [88 -    .: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Historys Age of Hatred (London: Penguin Press, 2006), appendix, pp. 647654.].       ,  ,  ,           ,     ,  ,          .    ,            .   , ,      ,   36   (  60%    ,         126- ),      ,  0 :   ,        ,  9,7  .  315                 [89 - Hayes, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, p. 12.].       ,   XX     ,                  ,    ,        .

      ,  ,      ,     .     .   ,     -   1929 ,      ,     ,      ,     - .           XX ,             ()     .           15   ,         ,     .    ,   ,    (  64%)     1939  1945      1944  1946 .            :          59%[90 - Robert J. Barro, Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century, Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 3 (2006): 823866, table 1.].

        ,        ,       (       XIII ),        .    ,      1629 [91 -      1629  : ,     ,             .     1629       11-    I   . (. .)] (    25%),      1349- (  23%).  ,     10%,   1709 ,                , ,   ,      ( ),   ,       :         [92 - John A. Eddy, The Maunder Minimum, Science 192, no. 4245 (June 18, 1976), pp. 11891202. . : Stephanie Pain, 1709: The Year That Europe Froze, New Scientist, February 4, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126942-100-1709-the-year-that-europe-froze/.].   XX   1921  ( 10%),       [93 - Nicholas Dimsdale, Sally Hills, and Ryland Thomas, The UK Recession in Context  What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us? Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Q4 2010), pp. 277291.. : David Milliken and Andy Bruce, Bank of England Sees Worst Slump in 300 Years as Coronavirus Bites, Reuters, May 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-boe/bankofengland-sees-worst-slumpin300-yearsascoronavirus-bites-idUSKBN22I3BV.].        1340- ,         40%.  2020 ,      ,         1709 :           10,2%[94 - Gita Gopinath, Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery, IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/.].






    , 18682015. (  ,      ,    ,     ,       )



,   ,      .         1923      ,        ,  ,          ,  ,   .      ,                 1960- .     ,            ,   , , , , , , ,   ,    ,  ,     ,     .    ,      ?[95 - . : Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Output per Head in Pre-Independence Africa: Quantitative Conjectures, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Working Papers in Economic History (November 2012).]   ,            (     )[96 - Global Data, Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace, https://fragilestatesindex.org/data/.].        (   ):  ,   1914  1950 ,    ,     ,   (         , ,   ,    ,   )        [97 - Leandro Prados de la Escosura. World Human Development: 18702007, EHES Working Paper No. 34 (January 2013).].

 ,     ,     ,     .      .    ,       ,       ,  ,       ,   ,       .               .     ,  ,  1943       ,   ,          ,                .     :        ,   ,    ,     - .   2020  COVID-19,  ,  0,0114%              .   19181919     150  .        ,      , COVID-19    ,   ,  ,  .     ,   2020   -    50% ,   1918-,       ,   2001 , ,      [98 - Allison McCann, Jin Wu, and Josh Katz, How the Coronavirus Compares with 100 Years of Deadly Events, New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html. . : Jeremy Samuel Faust, Zhenqiu Lin, and Carlos del Rio, Comparison of Estimated Excess Deaths in New York City During the COVID-19 and 1918 Influenza Pandemics, JAMA Network Open 3, no. 8 (2020), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236.].    2020  ,  COVID-19   ,      ,         1944 ,         :              [99 - Edgar Jones, The Psychology of Protecting the UK Public Against External Threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz Compared, Lancet, August 27, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S22150366 (20) 30342-4.].     -


[100 - ,   ?,   .]     SARS-CoV-2,    ,  ,     ,          .

           -  :   ,          . ,    ,      .




 2

  



             ,     ,              ,  [101 -  .      .  7. / . . . ., 2004. . 7.]

 






  


   ?  , ,    .     ,     ,   ,    .      .           .          .  I   ..         ,   , ,  ,  [102 - Lucretius, On the Nature of the Universe, trans. R. E. Latham, rev. ed. (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1994), pp. 64ff.].    ,    ,    ,  .         :  ,   ;   ,    ,       ( 1:9). ,           :  , ,  , ,                ,   ,  ,    ,   ,    [103 - Herbert Butterfield, The Origins of History, ed. J. H. Adam Watson (London: Eyre Methuen 1981), p. 207.].

      ,         ,     .     ,           .       ,       .  ,    ,    ,       ,    [104 - Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1979), pp. 41, 44; Tacitus, The Histories, trans. Kenneth Wellesley (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1975), p. 17. [  : .     . . II, . VIXXV / . . . ., , 2005. . 9;  .    .  II.  / . . . ., , 1993.]].                ,       :



       ,            .              ,   ,    ,   [105 - .      / . . . ., 2005. . II, . VIXXV.][106 - Butterfield, Origins of History, p. 125.].


            .       ,     ;    .         ,       .  ,    ,     ,   ,         [107 - Michael Puett, Classical Chinese Historical Thought, in A Companion to Global Historical Thought, ed. Prasenjit Duara, Viren Murthy, and Andrew Sartori (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2014), pp. 3446. . : Edwin O. Reischauer, The Dynastic Cycle, in The Pattern of Chinese History, ed. John Meskill (Lexington, KY: D. C. Heath, 1965), pp. 3133.].     1949  -     ,   -     ,        .

 ,           .    (1725)   ,      (ricorso)   :  ,     .          ,  ,   ,        ,                 [108 -  .        / . . . ., 1994.][109 - Giambattista Vico, The New Science, in Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 18f. [  :  .        / . . . ., 1994. .114115.]].          ,   XX [110 - Pieter Geyl and Arnold Toynbee, Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate,  .: Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 308ff.       (A Study of History),  ,    , .: Arthur Marwick, The Nature of History, 3 


 ed. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1989), pp. 287f.].  [111 -          .] (1776)         ,        .      ,       ,       ,     ,       ,   ,     .         (1798)       ,    ,      ,          .         .     ,         ,   :



      ,       .         ,        .  .     .  [112 -  . .  . ., 2020.][113 - Karl Marx, Das Kapital: A Critique of Political Economy, trans. Serge L. Levitsky (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), vol. I, chapter 32. [  :  . .   / ., : , 2020. . 268.]].


  - ,    ,         .







          .  ,       ,   [114 - David C. Baker, The Roman Dominate from the Perspective of Demographic-Structure Theory, Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), pp. 217251.].          [115 - Leonid Grinin, State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization, Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012).].         20102012     .   ,   ,        45%   , ,           .            (    ). (  ,       ,     ,  , ,   [116 - A.Korotayev et al., A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia, Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), p. 289.].)          ,    ,      ,       [117 - H. Urdal, People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited, Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (July 2005), p. 430; H. Urdal, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, International Studies Quarterly 50 (September 2006), pp. 617, 624.].     ,     ,    141     1955  2003 ,      ,     .               ,  ,     .     ,       -   ,    [118 - Jack A. Goldstone et al., A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability, American Journal of Political Science, 54, 1 (January 2010), pp. 190208. . : J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).].

        ,        . ,         .  1920-    ,           .   , p?re et fils[119 -    (.).],     ,        [120 - Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American History (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1986).].              ,    - [121 - William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About Americas Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).].    ,   ,    : , ,  , , .   ,   -  ,         :      .  ,       ,       .    ,     ,  ,       20082009      2020-,   -   [122 - Robert Huebscher, Neil Howe  The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning, Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.].

        :           , , , ,      .             [123 - ., .: W. R. Thompson, Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium, Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 2657.].           -    3100.  .. (  ), 2200.  .. (       )  1200.  .. (  ),       1900.  .. (  )  ,             .      , ,  , ,                    ,  ,   [124 - Ian Morris, The Evolution of War, Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). . : S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies, Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 5880.].   ,  ,       .    :            [125 - Qiang Chen, Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China, School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).].     [126 - ., .: Michael J Storozum et al., The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 10481128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China, Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.].

    (2003)         .   ,          (  ),           ,     ,    ,     ;  ,   XIV ,        .       ,      ,         [127 - Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.].        (War and Peace and War, 2006)    :   , , , ,     ,    . ,           ,      .       ;        ;     ,  ,         .        .          ;     [128 - Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.].     (   )      . /     :



1.      .

2.  ( ).

3.  (         ).

4.- .



  -     :



1.:   ,  ,     .

2.:       ;    /  .    ,       .

3. :  ;     ,   .     ,         .

4.:        ,      ,       [129 - Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov, Secular Cycles (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).].



   ,      ,  ,   ,        ,         [130 -  ,  .   / . . .][131 - Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles, p. 314.].   ,  ,      [132 - Peter Turchin, Arise Cliodynamics Nature 454 (2008), pp. 3435.].      ,       .    ,    -   , ,      2020 [133 - Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016), p. 11.].

,       .           (Seshat)       ,           .           [134 - Peter Turchin et al., Quantitative Historical Analysis Uncovers a Single Dimension of Complexity That Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization, PNAS 115, no. 2 (2018), pp. E144  E151.].           ,           .  - ,  ,       ,       ,      .  ,       ,          ,   ,       [135 - Jaeweon Shin et al., Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds in Holocene Social Evolution, Nature Communications 11, no. 2394 (2020), pp. 18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-16035-9.].    ,     ( , ,     )      ,  :    ,         ,          ?          ,     ?                 ?         ,           ?[136 - Shin, Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds, p. 7.]

  ,     ,             :   , ,  ,    , ,   ,         ,    [137 - Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles.].  ,  2020 , ,     -       ,  1870, 1920  1970-.      [138 - Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 243f. . : Peter Turchin, Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 17802010, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 4 (July 2012), p. 12. . : Laura Spinney, History as Science, Nature, August 2, 2012.].     1970-       ,                    .         , ,       ,   .      ,                (MBA)  .          ,  ,         ,       .      ,     ,     [139 - Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 72ff., 86ff., 91, 93, 104ff., 109f., 201239.].   ,           ,       ,    2020    ,    1870, 1920  1970-,      . ,        ,  -,         ,      [140 - Turchin, Ages of Discord, fig. 6.1.].    ,    2020 ,   :   ,          Black Lives Matter      ,    ,        ?

        ,    .  ,  -,     ,        ( ).    ,        : 1)    ,         ,  ,   ,  ,   ,  2)   ,          ,        [141 - Ray Dalio, The Changing World Order: Introduction, Principles (blog), https://www.principles.com/the-order/#introduction.].       ;  -        .    ,  ,         ;   ,    ;   ,       ;      ,       .    ,            ,           .                  .  : 1) ; 2) ; 3) ; 4)  ; 5)    ; 6)  ; 7)     8)  .  ,      : , -,      [142 - Dalio, Changing World Order.].           :            1930-     .    ,     [143 - Michael Sheetz, Ray Dalio Says Cash Is Trash and Advises Investors Hold a Global, Diversified Portfolio, CNBC, January 21, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/ray-cash-is-trash-as-everybody-market.html.].

    ,      ,     ,       ,   -  . , ,        1815 ?  1822          172%.      ( 1818  1822 )          .    12  1822      ,  ,    ,  .         XIX    ,     1830  1848       -.     ,        1970-   .        :          ,      .      ,     .     ,       .        1980-   .  1989-,     ,                ,                ,     ,            .            ,        .

,    ,   ,      ,      ,       .  ,      ( ,        ,    ),          [144 - Andrea Saltelli et al., Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto, Nature, June 24, 2020. . : D. Sarewitz, R. A. Pielke, and R. Byerly, Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000).].




 


     ,    , , ,  -      .    (2011)     ,   ,   ,      ,      ,       ,   .         /  , ,        [145 -  . .      ,      / . . , . , . . ., 2016.].       ,   ;   ,     ;   (  ).         ,                [146 - Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fall or Survive (London: Penguin, 2011), p. 11.].     ,    ,        .



   ,        (, ,    ),       ,   ,         1020    ,     .            ,      .  :  ,        ,     .  ,  ,         [147 -  . . .][148 - Diamond, Collapse, p. 509.].


,       ;         ,    (  );       - ,    ;    ,    .

     ,  (  )   ,     :  ;    (-);    ,   ;  (-  )   ( ).  ,     :   ;        .             (1971).  ,               ,    XVIII ,     ,   - ,  ,      ,        ,  ,    ,    , ,           ,        ,        ,   [149 -  . . .][150 - Diamond, Collapse, pp. 118f.].  ,   ,       .   ,    ,             .            .  :         ,    .

,      .  ,        1200 ,       - ,  .      ,              ,  .       ,   ,  ;         ,   - ,     1722    [151 - Benny Peiser, From Genocide to Ecocide: The Rape of Rapa Nui, Energy and Environment 16, nos. 34 (2005); Terry L. Hunt and Carl P. Lipo, Late Colonization of Easter Island, Science, March 9, 2006; Hunt and Lipo, The Statues That Walked: Unraveling the Mystery of Easter Island (Berkeley, CA: Counterpoint Press, 2012).  : Mark Lynas, The Myths of Easter Island  Jared Diamond Responds, September 22, 2011, Mark Lynas (blog), https://www.marklynas.org/2011/09/the-responds/. . : Paul Bahn and John Flenley, Rats, Men  or Dead Ducks? Current World Archaeology 49 (2017), pp. 8f.].    ,     [152 - Catrine Jarman, The Truth About Easter Island, The Conversation, October 12, 2017, https://theconversation.com/the-its-85563.].       ,    .

, ,              ,        ,  .    (2019)  :    ,                       .     ,     [153 -  . .    ? / . . . ., 2020.].

                .        :  ,  ,    ,            .    ,         :  , , , , ,   .         , ,   ,     :



1.               ,   .

2.      /    ,   .

3.     (  ),   / ,  .

4.           /.

5.,         /,       .

6. ,   , ,     ,         .

7.      ,   .

8.      / ,  .

9. ,  .

10.    .

11.     .

12. ,     / [154 - Jared Diamond, Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change (London: Allen Lane, 2019).].



  ,             .    ,  ,     ,            ,       . ,       .        ,             (. 152183),       (. 61)    (. 244).        .    (         )  .          36%  .   11  ,    ,         ,      . 75   ,         ,     .    71     1  10  (5% ), 41     100   1  (0,2%) , , 33       .

     ,    .  ,       , ,  ,  ,  ,   ,        ,       .  ,      , , ,   ,     .          .       . ,         ,           ,       .            .           . ,     ,          , ,  ,   . ,       .   , ,   .        ( ,  ,  ),      .      .    ,      ,    ,    ,      2952    .        ,     (-,  ,  ,   2697.  ..)     .   ,       70- ,       ,   .       ,  ,  ,    ,       .         ?    .

 , ,        ,      ,       ,       .  ,        ,     ,     . (           .)     ,    ,       ( ).     ,    (      ),    ,     ,    ,        .           ,      ?              ,  , ,  .




 


         ,   ?        2020 .         ?[155 - David Mamet, The Code and the Key, National Review, May 14, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/01/the-the-key/.]    .               , ,  ?               ?

     .      .          ,     .  ,     ,   ,  ,  .    ,  ,    .

		 
		   .    ,
		 , ,  ,   .

		
		 ,   !
		  ! 
		!  ,    .

		 
		   ,   
		 : ,   .

		
		 ,  ,  !
		 :  
		,  ,    .

		 
		     ;
		, ,     [156 - .  / . . . ., 1989.][157 - Aeschylus, Agamemnon, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 599, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 105.]].

         .   , ,           ,             ,    .    ,        .     ,    .     :      .






     ()    ().       De mulieribus claris (  )    .     , , . 1474.

		
		   , ?
		,    , 젗
		     ?.. ?
		    . .  - 
		-  

		 
		  .  ,
		    

		
		  ,    ?[158 - Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 599, 617. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. .106107.]]

		
		       .
		 ,   ,
		     .
		  ,   
		    [159 - . . .][160 - Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 689. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 111.]].

   ,      .       ,      [161 - Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 727, 748.].         .   ,  (),  , ,               .   ,     .   ,  (),                .

     ,   ,    .        ,    ,      :       , //     , //    . //    ?[162 -  .][163 - Aeschylus, The Libation Bearers, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 1074, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 133.]].         ,        .   :

		  ,
		   !
		   .
		, ,
		 ,  
		 ,  !
		, ,
		, ,   !..

		 ,  ,
		 !
		  !
		     , ,
		 
		  : 
		  , !
		  , ![164 - . . .][165 - Aeschylus, The Kindly Ones, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 2029, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. .191193.]]

       - :          .

           ,         .

		  :  
		   ;
		     ,
		    .
		   ;
		,  ;
		     ;
		    
		 ,  [166 - .  / . . . ., 1990.][167 - Sophocles, Oedipus Rex, trans. Francis Storr (London: Heinemann, 1912). [  : .  / . . . ., , 1990. . 6.]].

    ,      ,  .     ,             ,   ,     .  ,     ,    ,  .

     ,       [168 - Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018).].  ;     -1;  


;         ,    .         :  ; ; ,   ;  ,     .           ,  ,     .   ,       ( );     ,   ;        ;       [169 - Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 171176.]. ,    .    ,   ,   ,   ,  ,  ,  ,     , , ,   (     )     [170 - Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 177181.].       ,  ,      ,     (  ,  ),              [171 - Nick Bostrom, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (New York: Routledge, 2002); Charles S. Taber and Milton Lodge, Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs, American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 3 (2006), pp. 755769.],                 -.

           .   .    1921   ,          ,   ,    ,       [172 -   . ,    / . . . ., 2003.].      ,  ,         ,          ,     -    - [173 - Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921). . : John A. Kay and Mervyn A. King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (New York: W. W. Norton, 2020).].      1937            [174 -      ,   .]:



              ,    .   ,             .       .    ,                   ,        - .    :   [175 - John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Quarterly Journal of Economics 51, no. 2 (1937), p. 214.].


   , -          .             ,               .          [176 -        19521980 .].     : (a)       50%  (b)  500 .  16%      84%  .         ,        ,      : ()      50%  (d)   500 .     (69%)  ,   31%    . ,            .              50%-       (a),      (c),   ,    1500  (b  d).             :  ,     ,          [177 - Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, Econometrica 47, no. 2 (March 1979), pp. 263292.].

          (    ),       homo oeconomicus




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/niall-ferguson/zloy-rok-politika-katastrof-69267355/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


. . .  .:  . . ., 1982. (   . .,    .)




2


Davos Man Is Cooling on Stockholm Girl Greta Thunberg, Sunday Times, January 26, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/davos-maniscoolingonstockholm-girl-greta-thunberg-z2sqcx872.




3


The Deadliest Virus We Face Is Complacency, Sunday Times, February 2, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-deadliest-virus-we-face-is-complacency-wsp7xdr7s.




4


Trump May Shrug Off Coronavirus. America May Not, Sunday Times, March 1, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/trump-may-shrug-off-coronavirus-america-may-not-bmvw9rqzd.




5


Network Effects Multiply a Viral Threat, Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/network-effects-multiplyaviral-threat-11583684394.




6


Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us.




7


The First Coronavirus Error Was Keeping Calm, Sunday Times, March 15, 2020, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-first-coronavirus-error-was-keeping-calm-zvj28s0rp.




8


Richard J. Evans, Death in Hamburg: Society and Politics in the Cholera Years, 18301910 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987).




9


Niall Ferguson, The Pity of War: Explaining World War I (New York: Basic Books, 1999), pp. 342f.




10


Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 144f.




11


Niall Ferguson, Empire: The Rise and Fall of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), p. 65.




12


Niall Ferguson, Civilization: The West and the Rest (New York: Penguin Press, 2011), p. 175.




13


. . .




14


Niall Ferguson, The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 144.




15


. . .




16


Niall Ferguson, The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook


 (New York: Penguin Press, 2012), p. 203.




17


SeroTracker, Public Health Agency of Canada, https://serotracker.com/Dashboard.




18


    .: Bet 9, Long Bets Project, http://longbets.org/9/.       ,    ,    ,    ,    ,       ,   .     ,            :        ,        ,  .




19


Patrick G. T. Walker et al., The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, Report 12, March 26, 2020.




20


 : Ferguson, Square and the Tower.




21


Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (New York: Random House, 2012).




22


South Africas Doom Pastor Found Guilty of Assault, BBC News, February 9, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43002701.




23


All unavoided is the doom of destiny. . . .  .  III.  IV,  4.




24


What, will the line stretch out to th' crack of doom? . . .  . .  IV,  1.




25


Nicole Sperling, Contagion, Steven Soderberghs 2011 Thriller, Is Climbing up the Charts, New York Times, March 4, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/business/media/coronavirus-contagion-movie.html.




26


- .     / . . . ., 1994.




27


Louis-Ferdinand Cline, Journey to the End of the Night, trans. Ralph Manheim (New York: New Directions, 1983 [1934]), p. 14.




28


Marc Bloch, Ltrange dfaite: Tmoignage crit en 1940 (Paris: Gallimard, 1997 [1946]).




29


Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins, Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them, 2nd ed. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing, 2008); Michele Wucker, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore (New York: Macmillan, 2016).




30


Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (London: Penguin/Allen Lane, 2007).




31


Didier Sornette, Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series No. 0936 (2009),   : SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1470006.




32


Keith Thomas, Religion and the Decline of Magic: Studies in Popular Beliefs in Sixteenth and Seventeenth Century England (London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1971).




33


Norman Dixon, On the Psychology of Military Incompetence (London: Pimlico, 1994).




34


Christina Boswell, The Political Uses of Expert Knowledge: Immigration Policy and Social Research (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009).




35


Henry A. Kissinger, Decision Making in a Nuclear World (1963), Henry A. Kissinger papers, Part II, Series I, Yale University Library, mssa.ms.1981/ref25093.




36


Richard Feynman, What Do You Care What Other People Think? Further Adventures of a Curious Character (New York: W. W. Norton, 1988), pp. 179184.




37


House Approves Creation of Committee to Investigate Katrina Response, Voice of America, 31.10.2009, https://www.voanews.com/archive/house-approves-creation-committee-investigate-katrina-response.




38


J.R. Hampton, The End of Medical History? Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of London 32, no. 4 (1998), pp. 366375.




39


Larry Brilliant, My Wish: Help Me Stop Pandemics, February 2006, TED video, 25:38, https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics.




40


.  : Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi, eds., Global Ca tastrophic Risks (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).




41


Ricki Harris, Elon Musk: Humanity Is a Kind of Biological Boot Loader for AI, Wired, September 1, 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-humanity-biological-boot-loaderai/.




42


. . .  . .  V,  2.




43


Retirement & Survivors Benefits: Life Expectancy Calculator, Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi; Life Expectancy Calculator, Office for National Statistics (UK), https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/20190607; Living to 100 Life Expectancy Calculator, https://www.livingto100.com/calculator/age.




44


Max Roser, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, and Hannah Ritchie, Life Expectancy, Our World in Data, 2013, last revised October 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.




45


Mortality Rate, Under5 (Per 1,000 Live Births), World Bank Group, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT; Mortality Rate Age 514, UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, https://childmortality.org/data/Somalia.




46


 .     / . . . ., 2004.  XVII.




47


Salvator Rosa, 16151673, LUmana Fragilita (  ), . 1656,  , , https://www.fitzmuseum.cam.ac.uk/pharos/collection_pages/italy_pages/PD_53_1958/TXT_SE-PD_53_1958.html.




48


Philippe Aries, The Hour of Our Death, trans. Helen Weaver (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1981).




49


Adam Leith Gollner, The Immortality Financiers: The Billionaires Who Want to Live Forever, Daily Beast, August 20, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-immortality-financiers-the-billionaires-who-wanttolive-forever.




50


Jon Stewart, Borges on Immortality, Philosophy and Literature 17, no. 2 (October 1993), pp. 295301.




51


Murray Gell-Mann, Regularities in Human Affairs, Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History 2 (2011), pp. 53f.




52


Cynthia Stokes Brown, Big History: From the Big Bang to the Present (New York: New Press, 2007), pp. 53f. . : Fred Spier, Big History and the Future of Humanity (Chichester, UK: Blackwell, 2011), p. 68.




53


          ,        .     ,           ,      .




54


Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi, Introduction, in Global Ca tastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 9.




55


Bostrom and irkovi, Introduction, p. 8.




56


. : Tom Holland, Dominion: How the Christian Revolution Remade the World (New York: Basic Books, 2019).




57


Richard Landes, Heaven on Earth: The Varieties of Millennial Experience (New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 426f. . : Paul Casanova, Mohammed et la fin du monde: tude critique sur lIslam primitive (Paris: P. Geuthner, 1911), pp. 17f.




58


Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1961 [1957]), pp. 106f.




59


Holland, Dominion, p. 300.




60


James J. Hughes, Millennial Tendencies in Responses to Apocalyptic Threats, in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 9, 78, 83.




61


Holland, Dominion, p. 451.




62


Robert Service, Lenin: A Biography (London: Pan Macmillan, 2011), pp. 538, 539, 594. . : Robert C. Williams, The Russian Revolution and the End of Time: 19001940, Jahrb?cher f?r Geschichte Osteuropas, Neue Folge, 43, no. 3 (1995), pp. 364401.




63


Lenin Opposed as Antichrist by Peasants in Old Russia, New York Times, June 21, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/1919/06/21/archives/lenin-opposedasantichristbypeasantsinold-russia.html.




64


 :  .  Ը       //  Ը.   . . ., 2021.




65


Eric Voegelin, The New Science of Politics: An Introduction, 4th ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), pp. 120f.




66


 Ը.   .  / . . . ., 2021.




67


Voegelin, The New Science, p. 124.




68


Voegelin, The New Science, pp. 122, 129, 131f.




69


Landes, Heaven on Earth, p. 470.




70


James A. Hijiya, The Gita of J. Robert Oppenheimer, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 144, no. 2 (June 2000).




71


Doomsday Clock, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/.




72


Sewell Chan, Doomsday Clock Is Set at 2 Minutes to Midnight, Closest Since 1950s, New York Times, January 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/world/americas/doomsday-clock-nuclear-scientists.html.




73


Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board, Closer than Ever: It Is 100 Seconds to Midnight, ed. John Mecklin, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 23, 2020, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/.




74


 RAND   - ,     ,   .




75


-    .




76


Matthew Connelly, How Did the Population Control Movement Go So Terribly Wrong? Wilson Quarterly (Summer 2008), https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/summer-2008-saving-the-world/how-did-population-control-movementgosoterribly-wrong/. . : Matthew Connelly, Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008).




77


Greta Thunberg, No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference (London: Penguin, 2019), p. 46.




78


William Cummings, The World Is Going to End in 12 Years If We Dont Address Climate Change, Ocasio-Cortez Says, USA Today, January 22, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2019/01/22/ocasio-cortez-climate-change-alarm/2642481002/.




79


Greta Thunbergs Remarks at the Davos Economic Forum, New York Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.




80


Leonard Lyons, Loose-Leaf Notebook, Washington Post, January 20, 1947.




81


Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik! Kurt Tucholsky, Franz?sische Witze (I)  Noch einmal franz?sische Witze (II), Vossische Zeitung, August 23, 1925; September 10, 1925.    .: Tucholsky, K. Lerne lachen ohne zu weinen (Berlin: Ernst Rowohlt, 1932), pp. 147156.




82


Eliezer Yudkowsky, Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks, in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan irkovi (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 114.




83


Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (, 2020); Lee Mordechai, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, and Hendrik Poinar, The Justinianic Plague: An Inconsequential Pandemic? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (henceforth PNAS) 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.




84


   : Brian Hayes, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, American Scientist 90 (January  February 2002), pp. 1015.




85


 : Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 14951975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983).     : Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts, Tail Risk Working Papers (2015), arXiv:1505.04722v2; Cirillo and Taleb, The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?,  .: The Causes of Peace: What We Know Now, ed. Asle Toje and B?rd Nikolas Vik Steen (Austin: Lioncrest, 2020), pp. 5177; Bear F. Braumoeller, Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019); Aaron Clauset, On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars,  .: Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences (Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol. 27), ed. Nils Gleditsch (Berlin: Springer, 2020), pp. 113127.




86


Cirillo and Taleb, Statistical Properties.




87


Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993).          ,         , .: David S. Jones, Virgin Soils Revisited, William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703742. . : Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 14921650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.)




88


   .: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: Historys Age of Hatred (London: Penguin Press, 2006), appendix, pp. 647654.




89


Hayes, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, p. 12.




90


Robert J. Barro, Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century, Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 3 (2006): 823866, table 1.




91


     1629  : ,     ,             .     1629       11-    I   . (. .)




92


John A. Eddy, The Maunder Minimum, Science 192, no. 4245 (June 18, 1976), pp. 11891202. . : Stephanie Pain, 1709: The Year That Europe Froze, New Scientist, February 4, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126942-100-1709-the-year-that-europe-froze/.




93


Nicholas Dimsdale, Sally Hills, and Ryland Thomas, The UK Recession in Context  What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us? Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Q4 2010), pp. 277291.

. : David Milliken and Andy Bruce, Bank of England Sees Worst Slump in 300 Years as Coronavirus Bites, Reuters, May 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-boe/bankofengland-sees-worst-slumpin300-yearsascoronavirus-bites-idUSKBN22I3BV.




94


Gita Gopinath, Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery, IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/.




95


. : Leandro Prados de la Escosura, Output per Head in Pre-Independence Africa: Quantitative Conjectures, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Working Papers in Economic History (November 2012).




96


Global Data, Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace, https://fragilestatesindex.org/data/.




97


Leandro Prados de la Escosura. World Human Development: 18702007, EHES Working Paper No. 34 (January 2013).




98


Allison McCann, Jin Wu, and Josh Katz, How the Coronavirus Compares with 100 Years of Deadly Events, New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html. . : Jeremy Samuel Faust, Zhenqiu Lin, and Carlos del Rio, Comparison of Estimated Excess Deaths in New York City During the COVID-19 and 1918 Influenza Pandemics, JAMA Network Open 3, no. 8 (2020), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236.




99


Edgar Jones, The Psychology of Protecting the UK Public Against External Threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz Compared, Lancet, August 27, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S22150366 (20) 30342-4.




100


,   ?,   .




101


 .      .  7. / . . . ., 2004. . 7.




102


Lucretius, On the Nature of the Universe, trans. R. E. Latham, rev. ed. (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1994), pp. 64ff.




103


Herbert Butterfield, The Origins of History, ed. J. H. Adam Watson (London: Eyre Methuen 1981), p. 207.




104


Polybius, The Rise of the Roman Empire, trans. Ian Scott-Kilvert (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1979), pp. 41, 44; Tacitus, The Histories, trans. Kenneth Wellesley (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1975), p. 17. [  : .     . . II, . VIXXV / . . . ., , 2005. . 9;  .    .  II.  / . . . ., , 1993.]




105


.      / . . . ., 2005. . II, . VIXXV.




106


Butterfield, Origins of History, p. 125.




107


Michael Puett, Classical Chinese Historical Thought, in A Companion to Global Historical Thought, ed. Prasenjit Duara, Viren Murthy, and Andrew Sartori (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley, 2014), pp. 3446. . : Edwin O. Reischauer, The Dynastic Cycle, in The Pattern of Chinese History, ed. John Meskill (Lexington, KY: D. C. Heath, 1965), pp. 3133.




108


 .        / . . . ., 1994.




109


Giambattista Vico, The New Science, in Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 18f. [  :  .        / . . . ., 1994. .114115.]




110


Pieter Geyl and Arnold Toynbee, Can We Know the Pattern of the Past? A Debate,  .: Theories of History, ed. Patrick Gardiner (New York: Free Press, 1959), pp. 308ff.       (A Study of History),  ,    , .: Arthur Marwick, The Nature of History, 3 


 ed. (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1989), pp. 287f.




111


         .




112


 . .  . ., 2020.




113


Karl Marx, Das Kapital: A Critique of Political Economy, trans. Serge L. Levitsky (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), vol. I, chapter 32. [  :  . .   / ., : , 2020. . 268.]




114


David C. Baker, The Roman Dominate from the Perspective of Demographic-Structure Theory, Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), pp. 217251.




115


Leonid Grinin, State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization, Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012).




116


A.Korotayev et al., A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia, Cliodynamics 2, no. 2 (2011), p. 289.




117


H. Urdal, People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited, Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 4 (July 2005), p. 430; H. Urdal, A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence, International Studies Quarterly 50 (September 2006), pp. 617, 624.




118


Jack A. Goldstone et al., A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability, American Journal of Political Science, 54, 1 (January 2010), pp. 190208. . : J. A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).




119


   (.).




120


Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American History (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 1986).




121


William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About Americas Next Rendezvous with Destiny (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2009 [1997]).




122


Robert Huebscher, Neil Howe  The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning, Advisor Perspectives, May 20, 2020, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/20/neil-howe-and-turning.




123


., .: W. R. Thompson, Synthesizing Secular, Demographic-Structural, Climate, and Leadership Long Cycles: Moving Toward Explaining Domestic and World Politics in the Last Millennium, Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 2657.




124


Ian Morris, The Evolution of War, Cliodynamics 3, no. 1 (2012). . : S. Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin, Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies, Cliodynamics 1, no. 1 (2010), pp. 5880.




125


Qiang Chen, Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China, School of Economics, Shandong University (October 2012).




126


., .: Michael J Storozum et al., The Collapse of the North Song Dynasty and the AD 10481128 Yellow River Floods: Geoarchaeological Evidence from Northern Henan Province, China, Holocene 28, no. 11 (2018), https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618788682.




127


Peter Turchin, Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), p. 93.




128


Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (New York: Plume, 2006), p. 163.




129


Peter Turchin and Sergey A. Nefedov, Secular Cycles (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).




130


 ,  .   / . . .




131


Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles, p. 314.




132


Peter Turchin, Arise Cliodynamics Nature 454 (2008), pp. 3435.




133


Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books, 2016), p. 11.




134


Peter Turchin et al., Quantitative Historical Analysis Uncovers a Single Dimension of Complexity That Structures Global Variation in Human Social Organization, PNAS 115, no. 2 (2018), pp. E144  E151.




135


Jaeweon Shin et al., Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds in Holocene Social Evolution, Nature Communications 11, no. 2394 (2020), pp. 18, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-16035-9.




136


Shin, Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds, p. 7.




137


Turchin and Nefedov, Secular Cycles.




138


Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 243f. . : Peter Turchin, Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 17802010, Journal of Peace Research 49, no. 4 (July 2012), p. 12. . : Laura Spinney, History as Science, Nature, August 2, 2012.




139


Turchin, Ages of Discord, pp. 72ff., 86ff., 91, 93, 104ff., 109f., 201239.




140


Turchin, Ages of Discord, fig. 6.1.




141


Ray Dalio, The Changing World Order: Introduction, Principles (blog), https://www.principles.com/the-order/#introduction.




142


Dalio, Changing World Order.




143


Michael Sheetz, Ray Dalio Says Cash Is Trash and Advises Investors Hold a Global, Diversified Portfolio, CNBC, January 21, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/ray-cash-is-trash-as-everybody-market.html.




144


Andrea Saltelli et al., Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto, Nature, June 24, 2020. . : D. Sarewitz, R. A. Pielke, and R. Byerly, Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000).




145


 . .      ,      / . . , . , . . ., 2016.




146


Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fall or Survive (London: Penguin, 2011), p. 11.




147


 . . .




148


Diamond, Collapse, p. 509.




149


 . . .




150


Diamond, Collapse, pp. 118f.




151


Benny Peiser, From Genocide to Ecocide: The Rape of Rapa Nui, Energy and Environment 16, nos. 34 (2005); Terry L. Hunt and Carl P. Lipo, Late Colonization of Easter Island, Science, March 9, 2006; Hunt and Lipo, The Statues That Walked: Unraveling the Mystery of Easter Island (Berkeley, CA: Counterpoint Press, 2012).  : Mark Lynas, The Myths of Easter Island  Jared Diamond Responds, September 22, 2011, Mark Lynas (blog), https://www.marklynas.org/2011/09/the-responds/. . : Paul Bahn and John Flenley, Rats, Men  or Dead Ducks? Current World Archaeology 49 (2017), pp. 8f.




152


Catrine Jarman, The Truth About Easter Island, The Conversation, October 12, 2017, https://theconversation.com/the-its-85563.




153


 . .    ? / . . . ., 2020.




154


Jared Diamond, Upheaval: How Nations Cope with Crisis and Change (London: Allen Lane, 2019).




155


David Mamet, The Code and the Key, National Review, May 14, 2020, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2020/06/01/the-the-key/.




156


.  / . . . ., 1989.




157


Aeschylus, Agamemnon, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 599, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 105.]




158


Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 599, 617. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. .106107.]




159


. . .




160


Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 689. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 111.]




161


Aeschylus, Agamemnon, loc. 727, 748.




162


 .




163


Aeschylus, The Libation Bearers, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 1074, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. . 133.]




164


. . .




165


Aeschylus, The Kindly Ones, in The Oresteia, trans. Ian Johnston (Arlington, VA: Richer Resources, 2007), loc. 2029, Kindle. [  : .  / . . . ., , 1989. .191193.]




166


.  / . . . ., 1990.




167


Sophocles, Oedipus Rex, trans. Francis Storr (London: Heinemann, 1912). [  : .  / . . . ., , 1990. . 6.]




168


Richard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes (New York: HarperCollins, 2018).




169


Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 171176.




170


Clarke and Eddy, Warnings, pp. 177181.




171


Nick Bostrom, Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (New York: Routledge, 2002); Charles S. Taber and Milton Lodge, Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs, American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 3 (2006), pp. 755769.




172


  . ,    / . . . ., 2003.




173


Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921). . : John A. Kay and Mervyn A. King, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (New York: W. W. Norton, 2020).




174


     ,   .




175


John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Quarterly Journal of Economics 51, no. 2 (1937), p. 214.




176


       19521980 .




177


Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, Econometrica 47, no. 2 (March 1979), pp. 263292.


