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Adam Kucharski

THE RULES OF CONTAGION

Why Things Spread  and Why They Stop



Copyright  Adam Kucharski, 2020

Published in the Russian language by arrangement with Profile Books and Andrew Nurnberg Literary Agency

Russian Edition Copyright  Sindbad Publishers Ltd., 2021



       



    ,    .  , 2021.







            .      COVID-19   ,     -      .   13  2020 ,         15 000     750 % ,    .              ,    ,  .   ,   ,      ,             .        ,     ,      .  ,        , ,  .

 13    .                ,  :     -  ? ,          ,                  .   ,    ,            .      .     ,              ,        2,3    .

,   ,   COVID-19     ,       .       ;       ,    ,   .                  ,         .    ,      ,      .

      ,        .       ,   ,     COVID-19          .  ,    ,      ,     . ,   ,        .           : -          .      ,    . ,             :     ,     . 2020          ,    ,           .     ,  ,    ,      .

  ,    COVID-19,   ,   .  11       45 000       1000  .      ,     45    ;     .    ,             .   -         COVID-19       ,   ,       :    ,      .     ,      ,   ,    15 % .      :      .         (,        Diamond Princess,     ),    ,        0,5 % ;         .

       ,      ,   - ,        COVID-19      .    19 ,        COVID-19  ,         .            .           ,        .

       . 27        ;         .   10          ,         54   .      ,        5000  .     COVID-19       ,      ,    .

                   .             .     ,    ,       ,     ,    .     ,       ,      ,        COVID-19.      ?        ?     ?

     ,     .         ,         5 % .              ,    :      . 17          ,       ,       .    , ,   ,       COVID-19.    :        , ,         ,      .     :                 .            ,         .      2020     ,      .       ,      ,     ,        ?   ,     ?   ,  ,    ,          ?

      ,   COVID-19,        .  ,      ,        ,      .     .     .           .       .

    ,  ,        .   ,  COVID-19      .     2020         .            . - ,     ,      . ,    ,       .            :  ;    ;  ;  .

  ,          .       .        (, ,  ,  )    (,      ).      ,      ,       .     ,       .      ,    ,   ,   ,    .          ,   ?



               .       ,     ,         (),   .      ,        .  19181919               50  .            [1 -   1918 : Barry J.M., The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications Journal of Translational Medicine, 2004; Johnson N.P.A.S. and Mueller J., Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 19181920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 2002; World War One casualty and death tables. PBS, Oct 2016. https://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/henson/188/WWI_Casualties%20and%20Deaths%20%20PBS.html (https://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/henson/188/WWI_Casualties%20and%20Deaths%20%20PBS.html).  ,         1918 ,     ,   . , Branswell H., A shot-inthe-dark email leads to a century-old family treasure  and hope of cracking a deadly flus secret, STAT News, 2018.].

         .  :    ?  ,    ,        -    .     ,       ,    .     :     ,     [2 -      : Gerstel J., Uncertainty over H1N1 warranted, experts say Toronto Star, 9 October 2009; Osterholm M.T., Making sense of the H1N1 pandemic: Whats going on? Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, 2009.].

  ,     - ,        :        .   ,        ,    .  ,          ,       .

     .        ,  ,             ,  .                 ,     ,     ,    .   ,       ,    ,        ,   .        COVID-19;        2019     ,             .     ,    2020 ,  ,    ,  .     -    ,     ,     ,   ,     .

  ,   .      ,          ,       .     ,        : , ,   .         . ,      2009       ,           ;     ,        (  ,   ).






       2009 

  Public Health England[3 - Eames K.T.D. et al., Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza, PLOS Computational Biology, 2012; Health Protection Agency, Epidemiological report of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in the UK, 2010.]



          .   ,   ,      .         ,                .         ,       ,       ,   .      :    ,              ,   ,      .       ,      .

    ,     .    -   ,      .   ?       ?   ?        ?    ?

   ,       ,    ,        . ,  ,        2014 .         -  ,     .  ,   , ,           [4 -        , : WHO Ebola Response Team, Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa  The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections, The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 2014.].  ,    -    100 ,        200,     400.  ,     :   ,       .  ,             .

    .   2017    WannaCry     ,          .          ,      200    150 [5 - Ransomware cyber-attack: Who has been hardest hit?, BBC News Online, 15 May 2017; What you need to know about the WannaCry Ransomware, Symantec Blogs, 23 October 2017.         2000  80 000;    = 7/log


(80000/2000) = 1,32 .].      .    1980-     ,       480 [6 - Media Metrics #6: The Video Revolution. The Progress & Freedom Foundation Blog, 2 March 2008. http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html (http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html).     2,2 %   1981   18 %  1985 ;    = 365 ? 4/log


(0,18/0,02) = 481 .].

 ,   : ,   ,        .     ?    ?      ,        .        -.     ,    ,                .   ,    ,                     ,   .     ,      ,   ;  ,  ,      ,  Ice Bucket Challenge;  ,    ,    .     ,           ,     .

         ,      .        ,  ,    ,         ,        (     2009 )                   .          ,     ,     ,                 .

 , ,   ,       .           ,  -     .       .    ,     ,      ,    . ,               influenza,      ,   [7 - Etymologia: influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(1): 179, 2006.].

       .    ,        . ,    ,        -  :   ,       .    ,         (  ),          .         ,         ,     .          .




1

 


     .   :     ,    .     .       ,         .      1990              .      .   ,      .     ,   ,  ,         .   ,  :    ,       ().  ,           ,  -     .      ,    ,       .

       ,        :   [8 -  ,  -,  117.].            .      ,      (        ).      ,   , ,    ,   .

    ,       .    .     ,    25 ,       .            .            .     ,    ,      .

    .    ,   -     .  ,         (GBS  Getting Better Slowly).       ,    ,         .      .

     .     ,       .    ,                  ,  ,    .         ,      ,                  .  25 ,   ,     .   ,   ,  .     ,       .   ?   ?          .

 ,  .  2015     ,  ,      ,      .    ,        [9 - Kucharski A.J. et al., Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji, eLIFE, 2018.]. ,   ,         ,     .  ,   ,       ,  .    2014       25       ,        .

         ,   :       .          ,           , -.     ,    ,        ,     .  ,     ,  ,        .

     ,    .          () ,            .   :  ,    -   100  ,          [10 - Pastula D.M. et al., Investigation of a Guillain-Barr syndrome cluster in the Republic of Fiji, Journal of the Neurological Sciences, 2017; Musso D. et al., Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific area, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2014; Sejvar J.J. et al., Population incidence of Guillain-Barr syndrome: asystematic review and meta-analysis, Neuroepidemiology, 2011.].

       .          ,    [11 - Willison H.J. et al., Guillain-Barr syndrome, The Lancet, 2016.],      .       ,       .   20142015               ,       .

      ,        .          1947       .      [12 - Kron J., In a Remote Ugandan Lab, Encounters With the Zika Virus and Mosquitoes Decades Ago, New York Times, 5 April 2016.]     ,    ,      --.   ,     2014  2015        ,   .          :   ,  ,   ,   .     ,         , ,  [13 - Amorim M. and Melo A.N., Revisiting head circumference of Brazilian newborns in public and private maternity hospitals, Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria, 2017.].        ,     .

  2006 ,   ,       [14 - World Health Organization, WHO statement on the first meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR 2005) Emergency Committee on Zika virus and observed increase in neurological disorders and neonatal malformations, 2016.],          ,   ,  PHEIC (  ).   ,   100         1  20   [15 - Rasmussen S.A. et al., Zika Virus and Birth Defects  Reviewing the Evidence for Causality, NEJM, 2016.].          ,     ,   ,    .  2015 ,       ,  ,        ,      .       ,       (  ):        ,      .

           .        ,        .               ,       2016 [16 - Rodrigues L.C., Microcephaly and Zika virus infection, The Lancet, 2016.].           .    ?        ?     ?

    ,       .          ,    .        ?       ?     1883     ,       .



    ,              .        ,   ,    1879             .  ,                   [17 -    ,    Ross R., The Prevention of Malaria (New York, 1910); Ross R., Memoirs, With a Full Account of the Great Malaria Problem and its Solution (London, 1923).].

    ,        ,        1881        .      ,    1883-        .                ,  .      . ,       ,    .  ,       ,     :    .

  ,      .    :   ,     .  ,                   ,   :      ,   .  .      - ,   .  ,             - ,     .

       ,        .         ,      ,   .  1894     ,     .       :    ,    - ,      [18 - Barnes J., The Beginnings Of The Cinema In England, 18941901: Volume 1: 18941896 (University of Exeter Press, 2015).].      .       .        ,     ,      .

      ,  .  ,          [19 - Joy D.A. et al., Early origin and recent expansion of Plasmodium falciparum, Science, 2003.].       .          mala aria ( )[20 - Mason-Bahr P., The Jubilee of Sir Patrick Manson: A Tribute to his Work on the Malaria Problem, Postgraduate Medical Journal, 1938.].         .    ,     Plasmodium,    ,     ,       .

       ,     ,      .  , ,       ,  ,       ,       - .   ,          filariae.            ,     .                .    ,  filariae  ,   ,            [21 - To K.W.K. and Yuen K.-Y., In memory of Patrick Manson, founding father of tropical medicine and the discovery of vectorborne infections Emerging Microbes and Infections, 2012.].

        ,   ,  ,   .        ,      .        ,    ,  .       -,    ,       . ,  ,    ,       ,    filariae.

            .     ,      ,      ,      . , ,   ,         ,    1856 [22 - Burton R., First Footsteps in East Africa (London, 1856).].       ,    .  IV      ,    ()   .           [23 - Hsu E., Reflections on the discovery of the antimalarial qinghao, British Journal of Clinical Pharmacololgy, 2006.]. (    : ,       ,  )[24 - Sallares R., Malaria and Rome: A History of Malaria in Ancient Italy (Oxford University Press, 2002).].

        ,       ,  ,  ,   ,         ,    .         -    .  ,      .   ,      ; ,          [25 -  ,    ,   ,     : ,       ,     ,    ,        (Ross, 1923).      ,        ;   ,  ,     . (Achan J. et al., Quinine, an old anti-malarial drug in a modern world: role in the treatment of malaria Malaria Journal, 2011.)           7.].      ,   ,         ;     ,      (  )   .   ,      .       ?

         :      .        . ,   ,    ?       -,     .           .        ,    .  ,            .    ,  ,     .     ,   ,   .

 1902               .  ,       ,   ,        [26 - Bhattacharya S. et al., Ronald Ross: Known scientist, unknown man, Science and Culture, 2010.].           .   ,    .           .  1912         ,    [27 - Chernin E., Sir Ronald Ross vs. Sir Patrick Manson: A Matter of Libel, Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences, 1988.]. ?        ,    ,  .       .     ,   [28 - Manson-Bahr P., History Of The School Of Tropical Medicine In London, 18991949 (London, 1956).].

     .               . ,   ,   ,    .



      ,  .            ,    .          XVIIXVIII ,      ,       ,    [29 - Reiter P., From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.].          ,           .      ague        .         -  ;     ,       .

     ,  ,        .  ,        ,  ,     .   , ,   .     ,  ,   ,  -   ,       .  ,  -  ,   ,     .  ,    ,      ,     .           ,   .

 1901     ,   -,          .           .         .     ,        ,    .   :   ,  ,     .      ,      .      ;   ,       .

     ,     .       2000    .            .          .   1880-       ,             ,   .  1905     ,        ,   .     [30 - High R., The Panama Canal  the American Canal Construction, International Construction, October 2008.].                 ,       [31 - Griffing S.M. et al., A historical perspective on malaria control in Brazil, Memrias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2015.].

    ,  -       .   ,     .    ,    .              .    ,      .     ,  .     ,   . ,     ,  ,        .      ;      ?         ,   ,  .

 -      ,         .             .     ,  :     ,      ?   ,       .               .            .   ,  , ,         ,  .      ,       1000    .     ,  Anopheles   .  ,           .  ,      48  ,     12   .        1000  ,   (      )  12   12 .

        ,      ,    .  ,        ,   ,           .  ,      ,    .  ,  ,      ,      ,   .   , ,       48  ,         .






 , ,          48  ,         



  ,  ,        ,         .     :   ,     20 %  .        ,            .      ,        .

   . ,        ,   :     , ,       ,   .   ,         ,   Anopheles  ,       .

       (The Prevention of Malaria),  ,         .      ,      .      ,   ,     ,       ,     ,  .   ,      .

 ,    ,         ,        .       ;     .        :         ,    .             1830- .    ,  ,          ,   ,   ,    .        .         ,    .  1840 ,    ,    [32 - Jorland G. et al., Body Counts: Medical Quantification in Historical and Sociological Perspectives (McGill-Queens University Press, 2005).].         .         ,   .  :     ,    .  ,        ,      [33 - Fine P.E.M., John Brownlee and the Measurement of Infectiousness: An Historical Study in Epidemic Theory, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1979.].

,    ,   .        ,      ,      ,    .     ,  ,   ,        .              ,   ,       .

            ,       ,     .       ?    ,    ? ,  ,        , ?,        .        ,    ,         [34 - Fine P.E.M., Rosss a priori Pathometry  a Perspective, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.].  ,     ,      ,     .

   ,   ,  ,   ,    .     , ,   ,       .          ,      .  :                   .     ,    .   ,          ,    .

 ,   ,    ,   .          ,    ,        .        ,       .     ,        ,       ,       .   ,        ,            .       ,    .   ,          .                 ,      .

         .   ,     Anopheles,    ,          .     :    ,    ?      ,        .     .

   ,      .   , ,             ,       ,  .  ,      .        :   ,    ,    .     ,  ,    ,    .  ,      ,    1911 .         (,   ),        [35 - Ross R., The Mathematics of Malaria, The British Medical Journal, 1911.].

   ,         .      ,     :      1950- ,         1975 [36 - Reiter P., From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.].     ,   ,    .      ,    ,  ,        .

     .     1901   -       .              -     [37 -      Gani J., Anderson Gray McKendrick, StatProb: The Encyclopedia Sponsored by Statistics and Probability Societies.].              .       .         ,     .   ,      1911 .           ,     ,           .  ,    ,  ,     ,    씻[38 -  GB 0809 Ross/106/28/60. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Ross Family.].

      ,     ,           .  ,  ,    ,   ,     .       ,    [39 -  GB 0809 Ross/106/28/112. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Ross Family.].          ,     ,     .   ,         .      .      ,    .        ,      ,   [40 - Heesterbeek J.A., A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.].



  1924    ,    ,  ,       .   ,      .           .       ,      26-   [41 -      Davidson J.N., William Ogilvy Kermack, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, 1971; Coutinho S.C., A lost chapter in the pre-history of algebraic analysis: Whittaker on contact transformations, Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2010.].

              . ,      ,      .     ,       .  ,     ,     -  ,     .

  ,    ,     .         .  ,          ,     .        ,  1920          .

     ,       .          :     ?       .     ,       ,         .  ,      [42 - Kermack W.O. and McKendrick A.G., A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 1927.].

  ,          .    ,     .          ,           .          ,       .     .  ,             :








     SIR      (. susceptible, infectious, recovered). ,    10      .         SIR,    :






 SIR   



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   ?    ,     .       .          ,    .       .     ,   :      ,     .      ,   ,   ,       ,   - .

       ,   SIR       ( ).        ;           .






     1906 :    



    .         ,    ,      .     ,   .

        ,    ,      () .          [43 - Fine P.E.M., Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993; Farewell V. and Johnson T., Major Greenwood (18801949): abiographical and bibliographical study, Statistics in Medicine, 2015.].       ,   ,    ,     [44 - Dudley S.F., Herds and Individuals, Public Health, 1928.].  ,    ,           ,       .

       ,   ,       .               .          ,  ,     .     ,    ,    ;              .   ,   : , ,        ,          ,     [45 - Hendrix K.S. et al., Ethics and Childhood Vaccination Policy in the United States, American Journal of Public Health, 2016.].        , ,      .           .     ,      [46 - Fine P.E.M., Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993.].

        ;      .   ,  ,               .  ,       .   SIR,      :   ,             .                     .



             2007 .       14        ,   .        .        :  ?  . ,         .           ,           [47 - Duffy M.R. et al., Zika Virus Outbreak on Yap Island, Federated States of Micronesia NEJM, 2009.].

       ,     .       ,     .  ,    2013         .              42      .      ,     ,    :       .       ,    - -    ,           [48 - Mallet H.-P. et al., Bilan de lpidmie ? virus Zika survenue en Polynsie fran?aise, 20132014, Bulletin dinformation sanitaires, pidmiologiques et statistiques, 2015.].






            20132014 

     [49 - Cao-Lormeau V.M. et al., Guillain-Barr Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: acasecontrol study, The Lancet, 2016.]



    ,          .      :         .   20142015              ,       .      Anopheles,      ,       ,  Aedes,   :      (aedes     ).      ,      [50 - Stoddard S.T. et al., House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission, PNAS, 2012.].

  ,        ,  ,         ,    [51 - Kucharski A.J. et al., Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 20132014 French Polynesia Outbreak, PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2016.].       ,       .             ,       .

      ,   ,        2013 ,      .     ,         ;  ,            .       :       ?         2015      ,          .         ,        2014           .           --   2014 .                .      ?

        ,     [52 - Faria N.R. et al., Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings, Science, 2016.].     ,      2016 ,    ,      ,  . ,          2013 .                2013    ,      .  ,      .

      :               .         2013       ,   ,         . (,          :  ,     ,     2013 .)

  ,     ,    .        ,         .        2015 ,          .   ,      :      ,    .             380  .   ?

  ,             [53 - Andronico A. et al., Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2017.].        .   ,     ,       ,           ,             .          ,          .  42   ,   20132014 ,     .      ,     .          ,     ,          ,  .

 ,     .    ,  ,    ,    .  ,            .   ,        .   :           .      ,     .         [54 - Roz B. et al., Guillain-Barr Syndrome Associated With Zika Virus Infection in Martinique in 2016: A Prospective Study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2017.].

  ,   ,  ,         .     ,         ,     .    ,          ,         ,    ,         .

  ,    , ,     .   ,     ,    ,         .         ,  [55 - Fine P.E.M., Rosss a priori Pathometry  a Perspective, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.].         .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=66193908)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


  1918 : Barry J.M., The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications Journal of Translational Medicine, 2004; Johnson N.P.A.S. and Mueller J., Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 19181920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 2002; World War One casualty and death tables. PBS, Oct 2016. https://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/henson/188/WWI_Casualties%20and%20Deaths%20%20PBS.html (https://www.uwosh.edu/faculty_staff/henson/188/WWI_Casualties%20and%20Deaths%20%20PBS.html).  ,         1918 ,     ,   . , Branswell H., A shot-inthe-dark email leads to a century-old family treasure  and hope of cracking a deadly flus secret, STAT News, 2018.




2


     : Gerstel J., Uncertainty over H1N1 warranted, experts say Toronto Star, 9 October 2009; Osterholm M.T., Making sense of the H1N1 pandemic: Whats going on? Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, 2009.




3


Eames K.T.D. et al., Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza, PLOS Computational Biology, 2012; Health Protection Agency, Epidemiological report of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in the UK, 2010.




4


       , : WHO Ebola Response Team, Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa  The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections, The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), 2014.




5


Ransomware cyber-attack: Who has been hardest hit?, BBC News Online, 15 May 2017; What you need to know about the WannaCry Ransomware, Symantec Blogs, 23 October 2017.         2000  80 000;    = 7/log


(80000/2000) = 1,32 .




6


Media Metrics #6: The Video Revolution. The Progress & Freedom Foundation Blog, 2 March 2008. http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html (http://blog.pff.org/archives/2008/03/print/005037.html).     2,2 %   1981   18 %  1985 ;    = 365 ? 4/log


(0,18/0,02) = 481 .




7


Etymologia: influenza. Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(1): 179, 2006.




8


 ,  -,  117.




9


Kucharski A.J. et al., Using paired serology and surveillance data to quantify dengue transmission and control during a large outbreak in Fiji, eLIFE, 2018.




10


Pastula D.M. et al., Investigation of a Guillain-Barr syndrome cluster in the Republic of Fiji, Journal of the Neurological Sciences, 2017; Musso D. et al., Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific area, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2014; Sejvar J.J. et al., Population incidence of Guillain-Barr syndrome: asystematic review and meta-analysis, Neuroepidemiology, 2011.




11


Willison H.J. et al., Guillain-Barr syndrome, The Lancet, 2016.




12


Kron J., In a Remote Ugandan Lab, Encounters With the Zika Virus and Mosquitoes Decades Ago, New York Times, 5 April 2016.




13


Amorim M. and Melo A.N., Revisiting head circumference of Brazilian newborns in public and private maternity hospitals, Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria, 2017.




14


World Health Organization, WHO statement on the first meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR 2005) Emergency Committee on Zika virus and observed increase in neurological disorders and neonatal malformations, 2016.




15


Rasmussen S.A. et al., Zika Virus and Birth Defects  Reviewing the Evidence for Causality, NEJM, 2016.




16


Rodrigues L.C., Microcephaly and Zika virus infection, The Lancet, 2016.




17


   ,    Ross R., The Prevention of Malaria (New York, 1910); Ross R., Memoirs, With a Full Account of the Great Malaria Problem and its Solution (London, 1923).




18


Barnes J., The Beginnings Of The Cinema In England, 18941901: Volume 1: 18941896 (University of Exeter Press, 2015).




19


Joy D.A. et al., Early origin and recent expansion of Plasmodium falciparum, Science, 2003.




20


Mason-Bahr P., The Jubilee of Sir Patrick Manson: A Tribute to his Work on the Malaria Problem, Postgraduate Medical Journal, 1938.




21


To K.W.K. and Yuen K.-Y., In memory of Patrick Manson, founding father of tropical medicine and the discovery of vectorborne infections Emerging Microbes and Infections, 2012.




22


Burton R., First Footsteps in East Africa (London, 1856).




23


Hsu E., Reflections on the discovery of the antimalarial qinghao, British Journal of Clinical Pharmacololgy, 2006.




24


Sallares R., Malaria and Rome: A History of Malaria in Ancient Italy (Oxford University Press, 2002).




25


 ,    ,   ,     : ,       ,     ,    ,        (Ross, 1923).      ,        ;   ,  ,     . (Achan J. et al., Quinine, an old anti-malarial drug in a modern world: role in the treatment of malaria Malaria Journal, 2011.)           7.




26


Bhattacharya S. et al., Ronald Ross: Known scientist, unknown man, Science and Culture, 2010.




27


Chernin E., Sir Ronald Ross vs. Sir Patrick Manson: A Matter of Libel, Journal of the History of Medicine and Allied Sciences, 1988.




28


Manson-Bahr P., History Of The School Of Tropical Medicine In London, 18991949 (London, 1956).




29


Reiter P., From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.




30


High R., The Panama Canal  the American Canal Construction, International Construction, October 2008.




31


Griffing S.M. et al., A historical perspective on malaria control in Brazil, Memrias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 2015.




32


Jorland G. et al., Body Counts: Medical Quantification in Historical and Sociological Perspectives (McGill-Queens University Press, 2005).




33


Fine P.E.M., John Brownlee and the Measurement of Infectiousness: An Historical Study in Epidemic Theory, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 1979.




34


Fine P.E.M., Rosss a priori Pathometry  a Perspective, Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1975.




35


Ross R., The Mathematics of Malaria, The British Medical Journal, 1911.




36


Reiter P., From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2000.




37


     Gani J., Anderson Gray McKendrick, StatProb: The Encyclopedia Sponsored by Statistics and Probability Societies.




38


 GB 0809 Ross/106/28/60. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Ross Family.




39


 GB 0809 Ross/106/28/112. Courtesy, Library & Archives Service, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Ross Family.




40


Heesterbeek J.A., A Brief History of R0 and a Recipe for its Calculation, Acta Biotheoretica, 2002.




41


     Davidson J.N., William Ogilvy Kermack, Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, 1971; Coutinho S.C., A lost chapter in the pre-history of algebraic analysis: Whittaker on contact transformations, Archive for History of Exact Sciences, 2010.




42


Kermack W.O. and McKendrick A.G., A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 1927.




43


Fine P.E.M., Herd Immunity: History, Theory, Practice, Epidemiologic Reviews, 1993; Farewell V. and Johnson T., Major Greenwood (18801949): abiographical and bibliographical study, Statistics in Medicine, 2015.




44


Dudley S.F., Herds and Individuals, Public Health, 1928.




45


Hendrix K.S. et al., Ethics and Childhood Vaccination Policy in the United States, American Journal of Public Health, 2016.




46


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