  .      
  


   
                 .     ,                 .         ?

               ,        . ,    ,     ,    ,    ,            .

  ,  ,   ,  90%           .      ,    ?    .           . .

   ,    .





  

  .      



 .. , 2019

  , 2019







   ,        .                2018 .    .

    .  ,  ,      .           .    ,  ,             , .  ,    ,  ,        ,      20082009.         ,                (  ). ,      ,       ()        2019 .         ,             .

          .     -,         .     ,         ,   .   ,       ,         .            ,     ,  . ,   ..     ,     (1916 ),        , .  ,    (    ).      ?           ,            .

      :     (),  (),   ().

   ,             - -       .      ,     .        .        ()      (    )   .    ,   .            .        ,         .     ,  ,  .

     ,    ,   .   ,  .         ,   2018        .    ,    ,                    ,     ,   .         ,           ,       ,   ,   - ,     ,  ,      ,  ..            廠    ,      .   ,           ,      (  ,  )   ,     .  ,        (   )       .       ,       .

,   -         .  ,   ,   ,       ,           ,       .     ,        .  ,             ,     . , ,      ,             .   . , ,     ,         ,        .

    ,     .      ,         ,    .             ,    .      .                .      ,         ,          .  ,   ,    ,    ,       ..,  ..

       ,         .       ,  ,      .       (     ), ,       ,       .   ,            .       ,   ,   . ,  , ,     ,    (  ).       ,      ,    ,                ,      .  ,           ().                     .

,         ( ).           .            -          .

                .   ,         .  ,   ,  , ..  ,  .  (  )        ,    ,    .   ?    . ,              ().       ().      . ,       ,   .   .        .              .         ,   ,        .          , ,     .        ,    .

,    ,         .          .             (19082006).    110-     . ,         .              ,   2004  (    ).

    .     .  ,           .          ,    - .            .         . ,      ,             ( ,     ).

, , ,       .              . ..  ()      ,  . RU,  , ,   , . ,  ,    ().    ,  ,       (      ).




 I

  





 :     


       ,      ,    .      .         .       ,         2007 .    2008      .   ,   2008         , , ,    , , ,     .

   2008     ,               .      ,  2008       .       2008    2009 .      .     2009   0,8%.         .

      20082009.      1930- .     1929       -,       ,         .  1933       ,       .        (        ).   :     ,          .          ,        ,    .

   20082009.     ,           .      ( ),      .         ,     .               .  ,       -                 .

    2008 .      ,     ,    .         Fannie Mae  Freddie Mac,   7 .  15      Lehman Brothers,     -.      ,      ,  .  15     ,       ,    .       ,      .            (      ,     ).   613. .  155.    .  Dow Jones        500 ;        11  2001 .

    ,          Lehman Brothers.                   .

    Lehman Brothers     .       -  . -,       3%       (   ). -,   ,   ,       .            ().      50   ,    .  ,   ,   1500     .     ?

-,   ( ,   -,     ).  ,   ,    ,    ,  20002007          .

-,   ,      .  ,   ,         ,           .

,      -  Lehman Brothers         .      ,             ,      ,   - .    ,     .      .       .

-,    ,       ,      ,   ,            .      ,     .    ,  Lehman Brothers. ,  ,       .   ,   ;    ,  ,    ,   .  ,     Lehman Brothers,   ,      .

-,      ,   . ,     (       19872006.)    (20062014.).     ( )     ,                .  1986.   2005.         400 ,           .      (BIS),          2005   342 .         12,5 . .        -  -,  Lehman Brothers    .               ,     ,    20072008.       .  ,          19           .         .   . ,           ,     .      (   )         .

-,      .      2007 .   Lehman Brothers       Ernst & Young. ,          ( 2001 )     .          .    :  ,  ,  .    Lehman Brothers       Ernst & Young.  ,         -  . ,       ,        -   Ernst & Young.        Ernst & Young,      . -   ,     Arthur Andersen              (Enron),      2001 .   (  2002 )        .  ,    Lehman Brothers        .   .   ,         .        ,      ,         .

-,     ,   Lehman Brothers.     ,    : ,  ,    ,  (         ,       ,    ).  ,         ,    ,  ,     2008 ,        Lehman Brothers. ,         ,         ,  .    ,    ,    ,  .

,   Lehman Brothers       .       ,   :    ,     ;          (       ,     );  ;  ;  .   ,    ,   ,     .          ,    ,  ,    20072008.     .         2009   S&P 500   327%;   Dow Jones    ,   296%; Nasdaq Composite Index   531%.

     ,            ,   .   -  ,   .      ,          :  ,  .           . , ,         - JP Morgan,       Lehman Brothers.      ,    .     .  ,  ,                 [1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/jpmorgan-says-next-crisis-will-feature-?ash-crashes-and-social-unrest.html].   ,   ,  :       ;   ;   ;           ;         ,   Lehman Brothers,    ;     ,       .   .           -,               -.




  .    


             .         ,    (   )   .             (Institute of International Finance, IIF).          .      .            2018 [2 - https://www.iif.com/publication/global-debt-monitor/global-debt-monitor-july-2018].        1  2018   247 . .       (. .):     47;     74;    61;    67.      :       317%     .    (   )        .      329,7%,     386,8%,    456,2%,      526,5%.     ,     ,          . ,  ,  ,          ,      (     ,      ).      ,           ,         ,    ,      .              .

    .                       (. .): 2003. 99; 2008. 178; 2013. 210.  ,  2018       2,5  ,  15  .    69 . .     ,         2008 .              8 . .    ,          .      .       .          (),    (),   (),      (),     ..

         ,            [3 - https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2017/10/05/ ?scal-monitor-october-2017].         2017   182 . .     ,       . ,     .    .      ,           ,      .        ,     , ,   ,  .  ,      .  , ,      .

                  .      Credit Suisse.         Global Wealth Report[4 - https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html].       2010 .  Credit Suisse    ,    .     national net wealth,  national net worth. -     ().    ,     (net assets)   :       ().

   ( )  ,   ,  2017   280,3 . .       ( )     (. .): 2000. 117,0; 2005. 172,3; 2010. 219,8; 2015. 219,8.  :   20002017.      2,4 !           6,1  7,5. , .. 1,23 . ,  ,     ,    .

      .         93,6 . .,  1/3   .       (. .):   29,0;   23,7;   14,1;   13,7;   13,0;   10,9.  ?    19    ,  1,9 . .       .     -  ,     . ,             1/4.   ,        ()   2017    1,2    .         ,     3,2 .

  :        ,             .    ,  ,     ,       .    ,   ,    ,        .      ,   ,  ,   ,      . (,    ).           30 . .                 .     (.. )  .  ..     ,   ,      ,     .  ,      ,   ,    ,      .   ,  ,  .    (    2008 )              . ,     2008      19   7       3,4 . [5 - https://www.newsru.com/?nance/08oct2008/usa.html].

 ,      ,     ,      (    )   .        ( )    5        2  3 .    ,   ,   .     ,   :   .    ,     .     ,        .      ,    . -,  ()    . -,   ,      . ,         . ,   ,   .  ,  .



P.S.       ,    ,  ,           .  ,   ,     ,   (      ),     .  ,            .    , .    , 20%   (    16,6. )         .  ,        [6 - https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/05/14/166-million-us-households-have-a-negative-net-wort.aspx].  ,     ,        ,         .   ,            ().          , , ,  (  ),   ..       , ,    ,     .   ,               .




      ?



     

          .   10     S&P 500   3,3%, Dow Jones   3,15%,   Nasdaq    4%.     . , Apple  3,6%, Google  3,6%, Amazon     6%, Facebook    4%,  Net?ix    9%.     Nasdaq      2016 .

            .          .       11    4%.        4%,        5%. ,     ,     .      ,    .       1,5%,     2%.

          .   ,       85      82. , ,    (     ).

               .  ,  ,   , .  ,    .

           . ,     ,    ,    .         3,5 .   S&P 500       2009     4 .      .    . , ,      2016 .           .

  ,      ,     ,   .  ,       . ,   2008     ,         . ,  19  1987        -      22,6%.      1987 ,   ,   ,   ,    1929 .

24  1929     -  ,  Dow Jones       11%.   , , ,  ,     .     ,   ,             .    , ,   ,  1933      (    ).          (      ,   ).

   ,    ,        .         .   .            ,     .   ,       ,       .  -   . ,    .

      -   1929 .     ,        .       ,    1929      . ,     . ,      ,     .  ,           ,    ,     (,    ,   ).

           1929, 1957, 1973, 1987, 2008.         ,    .     .  -          :      .      .  ,   - ? ,    ,         .    ,              - ?   ,  ,            , .

     .    ,        .      .            ,    .  ,    .         .    .    ,  ,    ,      () ,      . ,      , ,    ,     .    ,      ,      .  ,   ,    ,    . ,    ,       .         ,  -   .

          (),         2018     0,2     3,7%.      ,       ,   . ,       ,      ,     .

         ,        ,     , , .

                 22,25%.     2018 .      .   10 ,       .        ,       :     ,     ,       ,   ѻ.

,               .  ,           ,         .    .       .     24       18,75%.    ,       . ,   ,         .  13        , ,       24%.  -  ,     .  , , ,           .  ,      .

    ,   ,        .   ,   ,  ,    , ..  .        ,        ,    ,     .

      ?          . ,    3,5%, ˻ 1,5%,    1%.        .      2007-   2008.   ,       . ,  2008           ,           .   2008     .       ,   ,   ,   .           , .. .         .     ,     20082009.   ,     .               .               .    (  )         ,         .           - .




   


      .   , ..    .          .       ,       .      ,  ,      .   ,        (       ),      .      .      .      .  ,     1  ,             1,5. .  ,           .       .    , , . ,     (     )        .  -     ,       .  ,       ,          ,      ..

             . -,        .      (  ).       .. -,       .     ,        ().       ,   ,       .    ,  ,   ,   ,    ..    , ,               (   , ..  ),   .                  ,   ,  .     20082009.      .        ().   (   -)       (  - )          ,      -  ( ).  ,             .  -           .

      .       .              .  ,    , ,    ,     .             ,  - ,    ..

,                        .            ,          .      ,    , :   ,   ,    ,     ,  ,      emerging markets,        ,     .            :       shadow banking     ,    .

   ,   -     ,    ,              .           (Financial Stability Board  FSB). ,    ,          2009  (    ,   1999 ).     (),    ,      ().            ,          .  ,                ,         ,          (      30 ).

           2012 .    Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report (     ).      .      .      ,       2016 [7 - http://www.fsb.org/2018/03/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017].

   ,         .     29  ,     80%  .      ,  .              (      ).

          336 . .        160 . .    61 . .    ,          .    :   (29 .)    (31 .).      99 . .   ,         .              .      45,2 . .,  13%    .

    2016      2011  (    2012 ),      :     ()    .    47,6%.  ,     ,     40% (          ).  -            50%.         .      29   2011     8,3%  .       2016    7,6%.    (  )      20112016    62%  73%.

        ?     () :     (money market funds); -;   ;  ,    (real estate investment trusts);  ,     (real estate funds);  ;  ,   ,   (central counterparties),    (captive ?nancial institutions)  ..       , ,  ,     ().   , 72%       ,     ,      .

         ,          .    ,         .        ( %       29 ):   31;   16;    10;   7;   6.

    :   14,1 . . (76% );   7,0 . . (62,5% ).   ,           . ,         3,2 . .,   54,6     .         4,5 . .     4. .         !

                   ,      ,         ,  .   ,    ,     92%   ,    76%,   58%.

    (),       ,  ,              .      ,        ,    .       .        (Jack Rasmus) ,          , , ,   ,        [8 - https://www.telesurenglish.net/opinion/China-Chases-Its-Shadow-Banks-20150106-0039.html].

    , ,    ,       .       (   )         ,  ,        .   ,  ,     ,   ,  ,        .

       .      (  )     (. .,   ): 2011. 17,0; 2012. 19,5; 2013. 33,4; 2014. 69,9; 2015. 62,2; 2016. 76,3.  ,   20112016.       4,5 .

      . ,       6%.       2016 ,    ,   80.063. .           1320. .  ,     17      .

          (62,9.)   (84,5.)     (32,5.),  (16.)     (31,6.).

,      ,    ,   , .          ,     ,   .  ,          (),     ,    ( ).     1  2   .      1000   .        ,   .     12   . ,     ,        .             .




  .   ?


        , ,  ,          .     .           .        RMB Tracker. Monthly reporting and statistics on renminbi (RMB) progress towards becoming an international currency.      2018     ,        .

    ,           ,        ,        .    ,        2018        2016  (. 1).         ,        .



. 1.    [9 -    (   ),    (   ).],     (  %        )




: RMB Tracker[10 - https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre]



,         1,03  ,          1,22  .            5,56       2016 ,  7,81  .   . ,                ,  ,         .       .     .          .  ,        ,    ,  ,  ,  .          ,  ,     .

        (), ..         .

         2,42  ,      4,77  .       13,08    5,89.       .          ,   ,  ,  ,  ,  .     ,      ,           .          .



. 2.    ,     (  %         )




: RMB Tracker[11 - https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre]



,       .       ,     .   2016     0,21%   ,    2018      0,28%.  20-      18-  (    ,      ).

,                ( ,   ).                   .          2015  ,    (   ).          (  )     ,  .          400  .      ,   - (  )    . , ,     ,   .              .  ,         .

    ,          ,   ,    ,  .          2012  (     ,  ,   , %):   44,04;    29,73.  ,       .      2013  (%):   37,50;    36,14. ..        ,      .      2013    .  2015             ,    45%,   ,   2223%.                     .    ,        .

,       ,           ,  ,      ..   .  ,  ,      ()  . ,     -  ,      . ,  ,       (  ).    , ,  ,       ,         . , ,        ,        .

             ?  ,                         (     ). ,         .            (     )  .  ,        .

       .           .     ,  , ,     ,   .         ,        .        .    .        ,         .       ,        .          ,     .

        .       ,      .   . , , ,   ,    .        .   ?

-,   , ..     (    ,    ).

-,    ,     .

   ?        90  .      1  1928    , ,   ,   .

-,         ,         .             .   .               .  ,            (        )    ,         .

 ,              (),   ,      (  ,    ,      ).       ,        .

, ,      .          .         90-    .




   


      .   ,  ( . imperium  , )  ,          ,      ,           .     , .     ,     (1916.),     ,      .   ,       (, , ,   .)     XIXXX.    ,         .   (, , )        .      ,  ,   .          ,      .        ,     ,    .

,      .            .          ,        ,    .               ,         .       ,     ,    .       .  -   ,        , ,   .       .          .




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/pages/biblio_book/?art=50216282)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/jpmorgan-says-next-crisis-will-feature-?ash-crashes-and-social-unrest.html




2


https://www.iif.com/publication/global-debt-monitor/global-debt-monitor-july-2018




3


https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2017/10/05/ ?scal-monitor-october-2017




4


https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html




5


https://www.newsru.com/?nance/08oct2008/usa.html




6


https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/05/14/166-million-us-households-have-a-negative-net-wort.aspx




7


http://www.fsb.org/2018/03/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017




8


https://www.telesurenglish.net/opinion/China-Chases-Its-Shadow-Banks-20150106-0039.html




9


   (   ),    (   ).




10


https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre




11


https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/document-centre


