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. 12  ,    



Kevin Kelly

THE INEVITABLE

UNDERSTANDING THE 12 TECHNOLOGICAL FORCES THAT WILL SHAPE OUR FUTURE



     



  .

                    .



 Kevin Kelly, 2016

    ,    , .  ,   , 2017




  


          ,       .   ,    ,    .         .  ,            ,   ,   ,     .        .       ,   젖 .

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    ,         .  1965 ,            ,    ,   IBM.      ,          ,      .           .  ,   ,  :     .    .   ,      . ,     ,       .   ,       ,   ,    ,  ,   .

 1981   -   ,   ,    Apple II.       -    ,      .      ,   ,        ,      ,       .       .

    ,         Apple II     .    -.        ,    .     ,  ,     .                .      .      .  ,       .

 ,  ,    -     ,              .          ,         1980- .

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      .     ,       ,    - .        ,    ,      .         ,      ,       . ,  ࠖ ,      ,  ,    ,   ,   . ,     ,  (  )   (  ) .  蠖           ,   iPhone .       ,   -ࠖ .     ,        Twitter .

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  ,         ,    .      .  ,        ,        .       ,     .      ,  ,           ,     , ,   . ,          ,         .                .          -     ,       .

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  ,  .   蠖 ,       ,        .    ,      ,     .   .      .   .    .           ,       ,           . ,    ,        .    ,      ,     ,      .      .     ,    (  )    ,      .    ,      .              . ,       ,   Uber,               .       .

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    ,     -.  ,  ,      ,    ,   .      200        ,     .           ,        .                  ,    ,      ,     .           .      .

 ,          ,   .   ,  ,     ,      .   30      ,  , ,     .       .          ,     ,      , ,    .   ,     ,     ,  ,  ,     ,  ,    .            ,      :   , ,     ,  , ,   .           .         .    .

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 1




         ,    :            .         ,  ,    .  堖     .    ,     ,  ,  ,  , ࠖ           . ,              .

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  ,     - ,      ,   ,      .        .  ,    ,    .    .

,  :        ,          .   : -,   ,         ,   ,      . -,       ,       . -,         (        ![1 - Erick Schonfeld, Pinch Media Data Shows the Average Shelf Life of an iPhone App Is Less Than 30 Days, TechCrunch, February 19, 2009.]),        ,     -,       - .        .  ꠖ      ,      .


* * *

 ,            .         (  ) ,          ,              .        -,   ,      ,      ,    .     -,        ,    .

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* * *

    ࠖ  .  ,   ,     . ,    ,      .     ,   ,      .

    ,    ,       .     ,       .          .     ,      .       .     .  ,    .               ,       ,  , ,  堖  .       .  ,            ,     .

  ,     ,   .   -    .    ,    .  ,   ,       ,        ,         ,       ,          .  -      .       ,    [1 -   (. Mad Max)    1979          . . .]:   ,    .      ,        ,    .   ,        [2 - Peter T. Leeson, The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).],       ,   .          ,      .            .

 ,       .      . ,      .

   ,    .  .       ,  ,     .      .  -         .       .     ,          ,  . ,     ,   ,    ,        ,   .      ,             .             ,   .           ,    .      .

  ,      .  ,    ,   , ,  ,   ,    .    ,    .      .

            ,           ,    ,     ,  .      ,      .      - ,          ? ( [2 -   (. Star Trek) - ,     (   ), 13  ,    ,    . . .]  ,     .)

        .     ,        .    . -      .          .       ,          . -      .         . ,               ,    . , ,   .    .

       . ,    ,      ,     .      ,    .

     (    )  ,           .        .     ,      .  ,       .      ,       ,    ,    .       ,       .        .       ,       .     ,     ,    .      ,    .      ,   ,      .     ,     20   .

          .         30         .            .      .     ,     ,     .

        .        ,       .    :       .       .      ,         .     ,        ,    .

 ,            .     1994     Netscape[3 - Jim Clark and Owen Edwards, Netscape Time: The Making of the Billion-Dollar Start-Up That Took on Microsoft (New York: St. Martins, 1999).]     ,        .    :    ,     .       ?        1980-,       (   ,   )    .  ,    .

      .    ,     .             .   1994      Time ,       :     ,      [4 - Philip Elmer-Dewitt, Battle for the Soul of the Internet, Time, July 25, 1994.].  !   1995    Newsweek     ?  ![5 - Clifford Stoll, Why the Web Wont Be Nirvana, Newsweek, February 27, 1995 (original title: The Internet? Bah!).],              .  ,      ,      -  ,   .   ,          ,  .              MIT Media Lab   ,            .  , .     ,     ,     ,    : .

        -   ABC  1989 .           .    ,   ,  - .          ,              .   ,     ( ), ,     .   ,   ,    ,      ,               .           .  -      :        1990-[6 - William Webb, The Internet: CB Radio of the 90s? Editor & Publisher, July 8, 1995.].       .     ,      :         [3 - 㠖        ,    ,    , , ,    . . .]  .

   , ,   ,   : ,   ,   abc.com   .     ,  -  ,         .  .   ,    .   .    :     .

    ,    ,       .       Wired.         ,       1990- ( ,     ),   ,        ࠖ 5000            .    Wired        ,    ,  ,    ,    .            .        5000       ,      ,    .               .     ,      ?  Wired    ,   Nintendo  Yahoo!    ,      .

  ,      ,     5000     5000 .     ,         .   ,      ,      .   1994      British Telecom,       , :   ,      .  , ,  ,     ,     .     ,      ,  cyburbia[4 - Cyburbia     ,   1994 ,       ,      . . .],   .

    ,    : ,  Unix   -,    .           .     ,      .     ,   1991         .   -  .         (      ),         ,    .     ,                    .   1980-      WELL    -,      .           WELL     -        . WELL   ,          ,        .        .

        Wired.  1994        ࠖ HotWired     ,  ,   蠖         ,        .  ,         ,          .           .    -  .

         ,     .

 ,     [5 -   (18901974)  ,   ,        .      . . .]           1945 [7 - Vannevar Bush, As We May Think, Atlantic, July 1945.],   ,     ,    [6 -   (. 1937)  ,       .      ,   ,    Xanadu. . .],     1965 [8 - Theodor H. Nelson, Complex Information Processing: A File Structure for the Complex, the Changing and the Indeterminate, in ACM 65: Proceedings of the 1965 20th National Conference (New York: ACM, 1965), 84100.].  ,         ,          .

  ,  ,      1984 ,       .          .   ,   ,     .       ,       ,  ,   ,   .    (       )        .    ,      .

      ,         .        .  ,          ,         .       .     .      ,                            ,    docuverse.     [9 - Theodor H. Nelson, Literary Machines (South Bend, IN: Mindful Press, 1980).]    [10 - Theodor H. Nelson, Computer Lib: You Can and Must Understand Computers Now (South Bend, IN: Nelson, 1974).],           .       !

  .      ,   ,    -  젖 .

  ,       ,        ,        ,          .      .    5000 -     ABC    Yahoo!         .       ,     ,     .        ,            . ,    ,       .       ,         ,        .   ,     ,          ,       .      .

     ,     ,   -     .       ,     .     20       .   -[11 - How Search Works, Inside Search, Google, 2013,    25  2015.],  ,     ,  60 .   10 000     .          8000 .

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         ?            .             .     ,     1980- ,   ,           ,     .    ,           ,     :            .      .

  ,   -      ,   ,    ,  .

                  .       Xanadu         :      Xanadu    .         ,   eBay, Craigslist  Alibaba,               .    ,      :  ,  ,     .  ,    :           ,    ,       ,   .          .

    ,           ,    .     ,    Facebook, YouTube, Instagram  Twitter,      ,   .  - Amazon   ,    ,       (   ),  ,   Amazon (  )      ,       [7 -   (. Long tail)      ,       ,      .             Wired. . .].         :            ,         .

       ,  Google    ,    90     [12 - Steven Levy, How Google Search Dealt with Mobile, Medium, Backchannel, January 15, 2015.],      .              20 .

    ,    ,        YouTube  Facebook. ,      (    ),  ,               .            .  ,        - :    ,       ,          ,   .  ,           ,    ,    ,    ,  .         50     2000- [13 - David Sifry, State of the Blogosphere, August 2006, Sifrys Alerts, August 7, 2006.]     .         : 2015    YouTube   65 000 [14 - YouTube Serves Up 100 Million Videos a Day Online, Reuters, July 16, 2006.],        300  [15 - Statistics, YouTube, April 2015, https://goo.gl/RVb7oz (https://goo.gl/RVb7oz).].         , ,    .    , ,   ABC, AOL, USA Today,      ABC, AOL, USA Today.  ,  ,     .   , ,    ?    .

              , ,    ,        .         .     ,    ,  40%       .          .

   ,      ,     ,          .   ,        .   ,    ,    ,   ,      ( )  ,     .             ,        ,    .

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       ,           . ,          ,      . ,    1990-       ,  .    2002 ,          [16 - Deborah Fallows, How Women and Men Use the Internet: Part 2Demographics, Pew Research Center, December 28, 2005.],  ,    .  51%    [17 -     Internet User Demographics: Internet Users in 2014, Pew Research Center, 2014;  2013 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau, 2015.]. , ,            .  2014       44 [18 -    -  2014.    Internet User Demographics, Pew Research Center, 2014;  2014 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau, 2014.].

        ,    [9 - 蠖  ,     1693       .          .      ,       . . .]?       ,   .     :  ,  ,   ,   ,    ,       .       ,     ,         .   ,        .

 ?  .

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* * *

            ⠖ ,     Web 2.0     .   2050     ,         ,      .        ,     .

             ,    ,     ,   .            .   ,    Facebook,  ,    ,    .   30   .    ,     .

       ,  .      -    YouTube. ,  ,     ,    ,        .    .        ,   . ,   ,   ,       .           ,         .        . ,             .           .    ,         .

 ,   -    .        .           ,  ,      ,  .        ,  30      ,      .                 ,   ,    2050      .  , ,       .

,          .       ,           ,    .   ,       ,     .          ,  ,  ,      ,  ,       ,     ,     .    .         ,      .  ,      ,                 ,     ,   ,     .      ,      ,   ,        1980- .          ,  :    ,  ,  .  2050         .

       .   ,                  -  .

 ,        1985    !         . ,    ,   ,   .     ,  堖   .       .          .  1994      Wired  ,    mcdonalds.com   [19 - Joshua Quittner, Billions Registered, Wired 2(10), October 1994.].        .       McDonalds,    ,    ( ?),   ,       ,      Wired.

       .        ,     .    ,    .  - !   -!       ! ,    .    , ,              ,   ,     , ,     , 30      , ,     ,        .          ,        ?

!  -  .         !     .       ,   30           ,   ,     ,       2050 ,     2016 .        ,  ,     ,        : ,         (     ).

   .                 .       ,         ,             1984 .

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 30     ,    ,     .  ,   ,   . ,    ,  ,    - .         ,   .

          .   - .          - .   .




 2

 



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       ,    .   ,   ,       ,     ,     .       ,       , , ,        ,            .        ,    ,       .

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       .            ,        .                 ,      ,    .           (      ),       .      ?       ?

         ,       .    ,     ,      .


* * *

          IBM   ,         .    IBM Watson ,    Jeopardy![10 - Jeopardy ,     . . .]




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/kevin-kelli/neizbezhno-12-tehnologicheskih-trendov-kotorye-opredelyaut-nashe-buduschee/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes









1


  (. Mad Max)    1979          . . .




2


  (. Star Trek) - ,     (   ), 13  ,    ,    . . .




3


㠖        ,    ,    , , ,    . . .




4


Cyburbia     ,   1994 ,       ,      . . .




5


  (18901974)  ,   ,        .      . . .




6


  (. 1937)  ,       .      ,   ,    Xanadu. . .




7


  (. Long tail)      ,       ,      .             Wired. . .




8


 - ( )       . . .




9


蠖  ,     1693       .          .      ,       . . .




10


Jeopardy ,     . . .










1


Erick Schonfeld, Pinch Media Data Shows the Average Shelf Life of an iPhone App Is Less Than 30 Days, TechCrunch, February 19, 2009.




2


Peter T. Leeson, The Invisible Hook: The Hidden Economics of Pirates (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).




3


Jim Clark and Owen Edwards, Netscape Time: The Making of the Billion-Dollar Start-Up That Took on Microsoft (New York: St. Martins, 1999).




4


Philip Elmer-Dewitt, Battle for the Soul of the Internet, Time, July 25, 1994.




5


Clifford Stoll, Why the Web Wont Be Nirvana, Newsweek, February 27, 1995 (original title: The Internet? Bah!).




6


William Webb, The Internet: CB Radio of the 90s? Editor & Publisher, July 8, 1995.




7


Vannevar Bush, As We May Think, Atlantic, July 1945.




8


Theodor H. Nelson, Complex Information Processing: A File Structure for the Complex, the Changing and the Indeterminate, in ACM 65: Proceedings of the 1965 20th National Conference (New York: ACM, 1965), 84100.




9


Theodor H. Nelson, Literary Machines (South Bend, IN: Mindful Press, 1980).




10


Theodor H. Nelson, Computer Lib: You Can and Must Understand Computers Now (South Bend, IN: Nelson, 1974).




11


How Search Works, Inside Search, Google, 2013,    25  2015.




12


Steven Levy, How Google Search Dealt with Mobile, Medium, Backchannel, January 15, 2015.




13


David Sifry, State of the Blogosphere, August 2006, Sifrys Alerts, August 7, 2006.




14


YouTube Serves Up 100 Million Videos a Day Online, Reuters, July 16, 2006.




15


Statistics, YouTube, April 2015, https://goo.gl/RVb7oz (https://goo.gl/RVb7oz).




16


Deborah Fallows, How Women and Men Use the Internet: Part 2Demographics, Pew Research Center, December 28, 2005.




17


    Internet User Demographics: Internet Users in 2014, Pew Research Center, 2014;  2013 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau, 2015.




18


   -  2014.    Internet User Demographics, Pew Research Center, 2014;  2014 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau, 2014.




19


Joshua Quittner, Billions Registered, Wired 2(10), October 1994.


